# Russian and Chinese hacking. What can / should be done? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 22, 2016, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-and-chinese-hacking-what-can-should-be-done/766596 "2016-09-22T20:09:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2016, 10:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-and-chinese-hacking-what-can-should-be-done/766596/41 "2016-10-13T10:12:16Z")
And we get what? This is Clinton we’re talking about, not Chamberlain. Russia’s got to give us more than just promises to behave better. ---
**Author:** ![clairobscur](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/839c29/32.png) [@clairobscur](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/clairobscur)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2016, 11:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-and-chinese-hacking-what-can-should-be-done/766596/42 "2016-10-13T11:17:24Z")
nm ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2016, 12:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-and-chinese-hacking-what-can-should-be-done/766596/43 "2016-10-13T12:46:34Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > And we get what? This is Clinton we’re talking about, not Chamberlain. Russia’s got to give us more than just promises to behave better. We get Russia to take a less aggressive posture in Eastern Europe. But that’s not going to happen as long as the United States projects military power in or close to former Soviet states. Again, we’re not seeing this any more objectively than the Russians are. We assert that Ukraine is a free state and has the right of self-determination, which is fair enough. But we also maintain military power and presence on Russia’s doorstep. Americans obviously don’t fully appreciate the threats that Russia has faced over the centuries, including Napoleon and Hitler’s attempted invasions. Russia sees America as, at minimum, a power that wants to exert influence in a region that is much closer to Russian interests than American interests, which understandably raises suspicions. Again, if the tables were turned, if Russia started using military bases in Cuba, Mexico, and Central America, we would be alarmed. If the Russians wanted to put missiles and missile defense systems in these areas we’d be really, really alarmed. More than that, the United States, quite simply, is not in a position to demand much of anything. Sure we could declare all-out cyber war and threaten the existence of the regime and the entire state. Have our great leaders considered what would happen if the Russian military gets blacked out and then fears a missile strike, thus believing it has no choice but to act preemptively? Beyond the fear factor would be the outrage factor. There is the possibility Russians, from those in office to those on the street, would demand retaliation by any means necessary. Again, we’re not going to intimidate Russia. This is a country that has had tens of millions of its people slaughtered in and starved by war, and these experiences have shaped them. They are actually educated reasonable people, but all people have a tendency to become less reasonable when they believe that they are being bullied, cornered, and threatened with harm. They’ve endured crippling sanctions and Putin has only become more popular. Sorry I know we want to beat our chest but the fact is, this strategy isn’t working. It’s having the opposite effect – making them more determined and more desperate. And that’s extremely dangerous because this is not some third world undeveloped banana republic we’re dealing with here. This is not an oil dictatorship that’s been weakened to the point of impotence by international sanctions. The Russians possess pretty potent weaponry and both the logistical means and psychological will to employ them. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2016, 1:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-and-chinese-hacking-what-can-should-be-done/766596/44 "2016-10-13T13:12:09Z")
They won’t take a less aggressive posture in Eastern Europe. This isn’t about fear of attack by Putin, it’s about national prestige and respect. You’re right that having troops in Eastern Europe is a provocation to him, but it’s because he wants to “make Russia great again”, not because he actually fears NATO aggression. We’ve seen guys like Putin 100 times, just usually not leading countries with nukes. Usually they are doing things like invading the Falkland Islands or trying to attack Iran. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2016, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-and-chinese-hacking-what-can-should-be-done/766596/45 "2016-10-13T21:06:54Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > They won’t take a less aggressive posture in Eastern Europe. This isn’t about fear of attack by Putin, it’s about national prestige and respect. You’re right that having troops in Eastern Europe is a provocation to him, but it’s because he wants to “make Russia great again”, not because he actually fears NATO aggression. We’ve seen guys like Putin 100 times, just usually not leading countries with nukes. Usually they are doing things like invading the Falkland Islands or trying to attack Iran. No, “national prestige” is your attribution – that’s not necessarily what motivates Russian behavior in fact. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Tildrum](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e95f7d/32.png) [@Tom\_Tildrum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Tildrum)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2016, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-and-chinese-hacking-what-can-should-be-done/766596/46 "2016-10-13T22:35:02Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I think there’s actually an opportunity for Clinton in the same way there was an opportunity for Reagan. Talk trash in front of the cameras but find common ground behind the scenes. The art of the deal (god I feel nauseated using that phrase) is in finding a way for both sides to avoid losing face. I am not a Russia - East Europe expert but I’m wondering if we might be able to propose the following: This is where the current administration thought it stood in 2009-2012. Obama laughed at Romney for suggesting that the Russians were an adversary and told Putin that he would have more flexibility after the election. I don’t think it’s worked out as hoped. Presumably the Russians are pleased with how things have gone policy-wise; they have a free hand in the Crimea and Syria, and a new arms market in Iran. These aren’t huge prizes, to be sure, but they haven’t really had to give up much of anything in return. I can’t imagine that they expect much likelihood of Clinton disrupting their little successes, either. She’s the one that brought them the reset button, after all. I don’t think they will see much incentive to deal. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-and-chinese-hacking-what-can-should-be-done/766596/47 "2016-10-14T03:06:08Z")
I’d note that one sure way we can reassure them is to elect Donald Trump.🙂 ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-and-chinese-hacking-what-can-should-be-done/766596/48 "2016-10-14T04:38:12Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > … This is not an oil dictatorship that’s been weakened to the point of impotence by international sanctions. … In fact however they are an oil and natural gas dictatorship whose economy has been weakened to impotence by both lowered prices and international sanctions. Is it merely [“dismal”](http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-28/russia-s-economy-faces-long-term-decline), or [“free fall”](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2016-01-27/lights-out-putin-regime), or just [“tumbling”](http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/04/12/world/europe/russian-economy-tumbling.html?_r=0)? Not sure but it is dire straits in any case. > [@the last cite](#): > > Low oil prices and international sanctions have crippled Russia’s economy. The country has been operating at a deficit since 2012, and its Reserve Fund is slated to run out by 2017. Last week, the World Bank warned that the poverty rate in Russia is rising sharply. … > > … After Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, the European Union and the United States used economic sanctions to target Russia’s financial, energy and defense sectors. Western sanctions have multiplied the effect of the low oil prices, said Robert Kahn, an international economics senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. > Russia has very little debt, but sanctions have made it difficult for the country to borrow on international capital markets. … > > … Increased defense spending — at the expense of education, health care and infrastructure — has been a part of Russia’s return to the world stage. In 2008, Dmitri A. Medvedev, the president at the time, announced a program to modernize the country’s military by 2020. That overhaul, which has been expensive, included building new bases, conducting vast military exercises and updating equipment. > Now, the expansion has ceased. Russia recently announced plans to decrease its defense budget by 5 percent this year. … In short Russia is in deep shit and is “not in a position to demand much of anything.” Putin will act the bully because that is what he perceives as making Russia great again but he knows that Rusia is actually in no position to take a solid punch. A cyber counterattack specific to Putin’s (and his cronies’) corporate interests that hurts only moderately but demonstrates that we can and will play tit for tat back is exactly what is required. Attempting to appease Russia would be stupid. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-and-chinese-hacking-what-can-should-be-done/766596/49 "2016-10-14T16:59:48Z")
> [@XT](#): > > What can be done? Not a lot, to be honest. Obama has already told the Chinese (and probably the Russians as well) to cool it or the US will retaliate, but aside from that there isn’t much we can do short of reprisal cyber-attacks (which most likely we are doing already…the Chinese in particular have had some issues especially with their ISP connections and their Great Firewall of China thingy). > . We can do a embargo of all Chinese goods, freeze their assets, a lot of things. I suggest the embargo. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-and-chinese-hacking-what-can-should-be-done/766596/50 "2016-10-14T17:01:19Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Honestly, what effect do you think this would have on the CCP, who are the ones initiating these attacks? Do you think it would make them stop? :dubious: Hell, they don’t even acknowledge, when we show them concrete proof, that they are doing it. They don’t even acknowledge that they HAVE a cyber-warfare group or do cyber attacks…in fact, like Russia in the Ukraine, they completely and with a straight face deny any involvement and say it’s 3rd parties and independent groups operating from inside their system (:dubious:…:p). > > In short, your suggestions wouldn’t work and would probably make things worse all around. If there was a simple solution then we would have hit on it already. The most effective thing so far has been Obama basically talking face to face with Xi and telling him directly to back off. There are problems with this, though, even if it works in the short term. Well, you mean not issuing any work visas to China wouldnt hit them? Of course it would. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-and-chinese-hacking-what-can-should-be-done/766596/51 "2016-10-14T20:29:14Z")
Thank you all for commenting. It’s been a very interesting discussion :). ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2016, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-and-chinese-hacking-what-can-should-be-done/766596/52 "2016-10-15T02:26:03Z")
What if Russia hacks the election? What would be a proportionate response to throwing our system into chaos? ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2016, 11:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-and-chinese-hacking-what-can-should-be-done/766596/53 "2016-10-15T11:50:17Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > In fact however they are an oil and natural gas dictatorship whose economy has been weakened to impotence by both lowered prices and international sanctions. > > Not sure but it is dire straits in any case. Russians can and will endure hardships, and they will escalate. My point is, I think it’s wise to understand what we’re trying to achieve and to make sure that we’re in agreement that our objectives are worth achieving. More importantly, are we truly ready for an escalation. I am skeptical on both fronts. That, by the way, doesn’t suggest capitulation to Russian aggression. There needs to be a way to give something to Russia and something to ourselves and our allies. There needs to be a way to get these things will allowing both the US and Russia to save face. > [@DSeid](#): > > In short Russia is in deep shit and is “not in a position to demand much of anything.” Putin will act the bully because that is what he perceives as making Russia great again but he knows that Rusia is actually in no position to take a solid punch. Deep shit, eh? Well maybe so. Let’s say the US cyber attacks Russia and Russia temporarily agrees to stop feeding Wikileaks. Okay, mission accomplished. Let’s say, however, that Russia decides, without warning to interrupt the flow of energy into Europe, sowing economic and a political crisis in allied countries. Let’s say it feeds a similar campaign of misinformation in Western Europe just as it has in our elections. There are rising nationalistic anti-EU, anti-American sentiments of political coalitions in these places. We could find ourselves dealing with American-friendly global governments today and anti-American fringe governments tomorrow. > [@DSeid](#): > > A cyber counterattack specific to Putin’s (and his cronies’) corporate interests that hurts only moderately but demonstrates that we can and will play tit for tat back is exactly what is required. > > Attempting to appease Russia would be stupid. What does it mean to “appease”? Again, do we really need NATO? Do we really need missiles in Eastern Europe? Trivia question: Why did the Cuban missile crisis begin? How did it end? ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2016, 12:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-and-chinese-hacking-what-can-should-be-done/766596/54 "2016-10-15T12:01:16Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > What if Russia hacks the election? What would be a proportionate response to throwing our system into chaos? Negotiations are the best response, provided that we have clarity on what we really and truly _need_ to come away with and what we intend to achieve through negotiations. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2016, 12:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-and-chinese-hacking-what-can-should-be-done/766596/55 "2016-10-15T12:14:47Z")
Good lord, **asahi** , among your list of concessions you’d like to see the U.S. give to Russia, is there anything you left out as being too much of a giveaway? It reads like a list of “Here are the things we are going to give you, Russia, and I sure hope you think nicely of us in the future.” ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2016, 12:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-and-chinese-hacking-what-can-should-be-done/766596/56 "2016-10-15T12:22:22Z")
I think the assumption here is that Russia is more willing to contemplate war than we are, but I don’t think that’s true. Nukes are the only real leverage the Russians have. Conventionally they don’t have a prayer against NATO. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2016, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-and-chinese-hacking-what-can-should-be-done/766596/57 "2016-10-15T13:35:17Z")
**asahi** , your position seems to be that Russia has weapons that can essentially cause mutually assured if not destruction then serious major harms (from the nukes to causing economic crashes) and that they are just nuts enough to do it if we respond to any aggression by them in any way other than asking them what they want from us. And let us be very clear: their economy right now makes Greece look stable. Another worldwide economic downturn is something they can handle less than most of the rest of the world. Not that Putin necessarily cares as long as he and his cronies have theirs and he can keep his citizens distracted enough. I also think you are a bit confused. The reason for a response is not to stop WikiLeaks. It is because attempting to interfere with our electoral process is serious act of aggression that if tolerated invites additional greater future acts of aggression. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2016, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-and-chinese-hacking-what-can-should-be-done/766596/58 "2016-10-15T14:06:00Z")
And the nature of cyber warfare isn’t to get anyone to agree to stop anything. If we do it right, they just stop. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2016, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-and-chinese-hacking-what-can-should-be-done/766596/59 "2016-10-15T14:27:57Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > **asahi** , your position seems to be that Russia has weapons that can essentially cause mutually assured if not destruction then serious major harms (from the nukes to causing economic crashes) and that they are just nuts enough to do it if we respond to any aggression by them in any way other than asking them what they want from us. Well yeah, that is what I’m saying. But I’m also saying that they probably have greater collective will to fight and they have a higher tolerance for pain. If we’re going to take the gloves off and fight an opponent that can inflict the kind of pain that Russia can, it has to be damn well worth it, and more importantly, there must be no other alternative. You’re seem to be saying that if Russia starts causing the collapse of our financial sector and wiping out your 401K and whatever other assets you own --\*\* a very real threat by the way \*\*-- you’re okay with it because you believe it’s inevitable. I don’t actually see it that way. Let’s say Barack Obama and/or Hillary Clinton decide to engage Russia in cyber warfare and let’s say Russia not only refuses to back down but retaliates. They’ve already shown a willingness to tinker with our voting system, and they’ve done so repeatedly. They’ve asserted themselves militarily and politically in Eastern Ukraine, Crimea, and Ossetia. They’ve asserted themselves in Syria. What makes you think they’ll stop there? Whether it was neo-con Bush or a more flexible approach from Obama, Putin is making clear that Russia is going to defend its interests, just like the United States is defending its interests. > [@DSeid](#): > > And let us be very clear: their economy right now makes Greece look stable. Another worldwide economic downturn is something they can handle less than most of the rest of the world. Not that Putin necessarily cares as long as he and his cronies have theirs and he can keep his citizens distracted enough. Russians are still overwhelmingly supporting Putin. They are blaming the United States for their misery, not Putin. Russians are not going to overthrow Putin. If anything, they will demand that he dig in and fight back harder. In fact there is the danger, just as there is here, that people on the street might demand an overreaction. Do you get that? > [@DSeid](#): > > I also think you are a bit confused. The reason for a response is not to stop WikiLeaks. It is because attempting to interfere with our electoral process is serious act of aggression that if tolerated invites additional greater future acts of aggression. I’m not confused. You, like most Americans, are missing the real issue here, which is that the United States and the West are attacking Russia’s political power structure and have been intensively since 2014. We are threatening the legitimacy of their regime, and now they’re doing the same to us. We have money and political partnerships; they have hackers. The key question is, why are we imposing sanctions? What are we trying to defend? Why are we defending it? As in Syria and Libya, do we know what or whom we’re defending? Have we asked these questions? Do we know the answers to these questions? Are Americans all unified in their commitment to an extreme escalation with Russia? I think we’d better know these answers to these questions before we start going toe to toe with someone that can actually fight back. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2016, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-and-chinese-hacking-what-can-should-be-done/766596/60 "2016-10-15T14:29:04Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > And the nature of cyber warfare isn’t to get anyone to agree to stop anything. If we do it right, they just stop. I think you’re dreaming. This is not cyber-war, this is not economic war. War is war. It stops when both sides agree that it stops. Americans are dangerously ignorant and naive about anything that happens outside their own borders, probably because we’re used to operating on the assumption that we can solve problems with economic sanctions and cruise missiles. That works against some states, but not all. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-and-chinese-hacking-what-can-should-be-done/766596.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-and-chinese-hacking-what-can-should-be-done/766596.md?page=4)