# Russian Use of Nuclear Weapons and Response rgd Ukraine **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [September 27, 2022, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-use-of-nuclear-weapons-and-response-rgd-ukraine/972339 "2022-09-27T20:40:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Pavelb1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/439d5e/32.png) [@Pavelb1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pavelb1)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2022, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-use-of-nuclear-weapons-and-response-rgd-ukraine/972339/101 "2022-10-01T19:49:05Z")
There’s a lot of wishcasting about Putin being deposed thats been going on since the very begininng. I don’t think its anymore realistic then my idea of Russia declaring war on the climate…ok I actually like that idea but still. Getting to reality. The only answer to peace starts with leaders at least acting like they realize they’re on the road to Armageddon and showing a LITTLE fear and hesitation about it. As i said for months, you have to give Russia an out. They arn’t going to just quit. Putin isn’t going to be couped. …or don’t…Ive built up quite a stack of bottled water and canned goods. The houses next to mine are abandoned. Ill just barbed wire all three, push disabled trucks on either side of my street to seal them off and declare independence for Richmondavenuvia the second i hear a tactical nuke has been used. ---
**Author:** ![Fish\_Cheer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fish_cheer/32/17179_2.png) [@Fish\_Cheer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fish_Cheer)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2022, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-use-of-nuclear-weapons-and-response-rgd-ukraine/972339/102 "2022-10-01T19:51:25Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > What do you mean? While I don’t think it’s a great idea, I’m not sure what makes it infeasible. Do the Russians not have any form of communication systems that we can communicate with them with? I was not questioning the feasibility of transmitting the threat, but of making good on it. > [@k9bfriender](#): > > That’s an odd statement to make in defense of use of nuclear weapons. I take it that you saying that if Putin drops a nuke on Ukraine, we should applaud him? Fallacy of the excluded middle — I think there is quite a lot of daylight between unleashing full-on armageddon and applause. I am not defending the use of nuclear weapons, but I’d prefer if you, me, and most everybody else weren’t obliterated in a nuclear holocaust just to prove a point. ---
**Author:** ![Fish\_Cheer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fish_cheer/32/17179_2.png) [@Fish\_Cheer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fish_Cheer)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2022, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-use-of-nuclear-weapons-and-response-rgd-ukraine/972339/103 "2022-10-01T19:59:56Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > I mean, fundamentally, the problem is that Putin can, if he so chooses, initiate Armageddon. If the question is how we can stop him from doing so, the answer, unfortunately, is that we can’t. Stopping him is the only good outcome, and we can’t do that, so naturally we’re not looking at good options. That, of course, is entirely accurate. What we disagree on is whether using a tactical nuke on Ukraine is tantamount to immediately initiating Armageddon. You seem to think it is and I don’t, but it is a big step in the wrong direction for sure. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2022, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-use-of-nuclear-weapons-and-response-rgd-ukraine/972339/104 "2022-10-01T20:04:12Z")
> [@Fish\_Cheer](#): > > What we disagree on is whether using a tactical nuke on Ukraine is tantamount to immediately initiating Armageddon. It puts the world on a track where the only two remaining possible outcomes are Armageddon, or Russian conquest of the entire world. Once the first nuke goes off, either of those end states can be delayed slightly, but not averted. ---
**Author:** ![Fish\_Cheer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fish_cheer/32/17179_2.png) [@Fish\_Cheer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fish_Cheer)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2022, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-use-of-nuclear-weapons-and-response-rgd-ukraine/972339/105 "2022-10-01T20:09:43Z")
That’s too simplistic for me. For example, how about a scenario where both China and India are righteously horrified at Putin’s breach of the nuclear taboo and start fully sanctioning Russia as well? How long until Putin’s regime collapses? But you have to give them time to do that and not start WW3 right away. ---
**Author:** ![Pavelb1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/439d5e/32.png) [@Pavelb1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pavelb1)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2022, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-use-of-nuclear-weapons-and-response-rgd-ukraine/972339/106 "2022-10-01T20:14:32Z")
Or China could supply Russia with the means to finish the job they don’t seem able to do. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2022, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-use-of-nuclear-weapons-and-response-rgd-ukraine/972339/107 "2022-10-01T20:14:39Z")
> [@Fish\_Cheer](#): > > I was not questioning the feasibility of transmitting the threat, but of making good on it. What’s infeasible about making good on it? Do you know something about our lack of nuclear capabilities that we don’t? > [@Fish\_Cheer](#): > > Fallacy of the excluded middle — I think there is quite a lot of daylight between unleashing full-on armageddon and applause. Like what? What are your suggestions if Putin starts lobbing nukes? > [@Fish\_Cheer](#): > > I am not defending the use of nuclear weapons, but I’d prefer if you, me, and most everybody else weren’t obliterated in a nuclear holocaust just to prove a point. What do you want the reason to be that we are obliterated in a nuclear holocaust? Seriously, once _one_ nuke goes off, the probability that we have global nuclear war goes pretty close to 100%. Maybe we can push it off for a week or a month, but it will lead inevitably towards it. The only way out is to change the players, and that would involve getting rid of the person that ordered a nuclear strike. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2022, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-use-of-nuclear-weapons-and-response-rgd-ukraine/972339/108 "2022-10-01T20:32:21Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > It puts the world on a track where the only two remaining possible outcomes are Armageddon, or Russian conquest of the entire world. Once the first nuke goes off, either of those end states can be delayed slightly, but not averted. That is an absolutely absurd notion. A.) is a distinct possibility but hardly a certainty, B.) is not happening. I’m not sure where this extreme reductionism is coming from, but there are multiple scenarios possible from a single tactical nuke being used. None of them are great, but not all of them lead inexorably to the End of the World. A tit-for-tat limited exchange that ends, for example, with Putin being defenestrated is hardly an impossibility. > [@k9bfriender](#): > > Seriously, once _one_ nuke goes off, the probability that we have global nuclear war goes pretty close to 100%. Maybe we can push it off for a week or a month, but it will lead inevitably towards it. As above. I think I’m going to end with this post for now, as none of our debate thankfully effects actual national policy and I’m not sure there is any bridging of this opinion gap. ---
**Author:** ![ParallelLines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/parallellines/32/3575_2.png) [@ParallelLines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParallelLines)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2022, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-use-of-nuclear-weapons-and-response-rgd-ukraine/972339/109 "2022-10-01T20:41:13Z")
Wanted to share a recent news article > **[October 1, 2022 Russia-Ukraine news](https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-10-01-22#h_33f48bf1d4d8f1898e12a4ff46407fae)** > > Russian troops withdrew from the key Donetsk town of Lyman, just one day after Russian President Vladimir Putin declared the annexations of four regions — including Donetsk — of Ukraine. Follow here for the latest news updates. And I’ll quote the line I think best applies, although feel free to read the whole thing, it’s short enough. > In a statement slamming Russian generals in the wake of Russia’s withdrawal of its forces from the strategic town of Lyman, Kadyrov said it was time for the Kremlin to make use of every weapon at its disposal. > > > “I do not know what the Defense Ministry reports to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, but in my personal opinion we need to take more drastic measures, including declaring martial law in the border territories and using low-yield nuclear weapons. There is no need to make every decision with the Western American community in mind,” Kadyrov said on his Telegram channel. I bring this up specifically because we’ve been discussing removing Putin as a possible / key solution to resolving the use of nuclear weapons. But while Putin may be the one aggressively pushing the War in the first place, his attitude towards usage of tactical weapons appears more in line than against Russian attitudes. So while it’s worthwhile to consider targeting Putin as the one who ultimately gives the order, it doesn’t seem particularly likely that any future replacement will absolutely abandon them as effective weapons to be used as needed, rather than as a last resort. ---
**Author:** ![Fish\_Cheer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fish_cheer/32/17179_2.png) [@Fish\_Cheer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fish_Cheer)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2022, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-use-of-nuclear-weapons-and-response-rgd-ukraine/972339/110 "2022-10-01T20:41:17Z")
Thank you, Tamerlane. I’m glad it’s not just me. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2022, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-use-of-nuclear-weapons-and-response-rgd-ukraine/972339/111 "2022-10-01T20:42:23Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > I ask you this, if the poster had not mentioned “Warday”, would you have given such a dismissive answer? Strangely enough, it’s possible that a question might have a different best answer based on context. Personally I wouldn’t presume to be able to craft one that’s universally suited to every possible context, but you do you. > [@](#): > > If so, then it would be entirely about you avoiding the question in order to show off your pedanticism about “dropped” vs “de-orbit”[/quote] What pedanticism? A guy asked if a satellite could make a surprise attack by dropping nukes like in the book. The straightforward and uncontroversial answer is “no, satellites cannot do that.” If you wanted to broaden the question to practical military applications of the concept, then the answer is “the closest militarily feasible implementation of this concept is [FOBS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractional_Orbital_Bombardment_System), which isn’t really an orbital attack situation, but is very similiar for military purposes” But you didn’t do that either, we’re instead treated to this odd pedantic insistence that the question is much more complicated if we change the factual meanings of “satellite” and “drop” and “surprise attack” to satisfy the needs of whatever performance you’re trying to put on here. ---
**Author:** ![Pavelb1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/439d5e/32.png) [@Pavelb1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pavelb1)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2022, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-use-of-nuclear-weapons-and-response-rgd-ukraine/972339/112 "2022-10-01T21:46:29Z")
Well it was actually trying to think of a scenario wherein a satellite could stealthily, using maneuvering thrusters on the nuke itself and then gravity, ‘drop’ a nuke without being detected that made me think of Warday, but I grant there’s not much distinction between the other way around. If i recall in Warday, the Soviets were trying to surprise the USA through lack of intel rather then trying to escape detection. ---
**Author:** ![ParallelLines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/parallellines/32/3575_2.png) [@ParallelLines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParallelLines)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2022, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-use-of-nuclear-weapons-and-response-rgd-ukraine/972339/113 "2022-10-01T22:10:18Z")
The thing is all the speculative fiction about the sat-nuke is 180 degrees away from what we’re talking about. Putin has no need and no desire to hide his use of nuclear weapons. He’s quite literally flaunting his willingness to use them. Doing a stealth approach might, Might give some plausible deniability but that runs counter to his aims. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2022, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-use-of-nuclear-weapons-and-response-rgd-ukraine/972339/114 "2022-10-01T22:37:05Z")
Moderating: > [@Pavelb1](#): > > Well it was actually trying to think of a scenario wherein a satellite could stealthily, using maneuvering thrusters on the nuke itself and then gravity, ‘drop’ a nuke without being detected that made me think of Warday, but I grant there’s not much distinction between the other way around. > > If i recall in Warday, the Soviets were trying to surprise the USA through lack of intel rather then trying to escape detection. This is off-topic. Please stick to the topic and don’t reply to this hijack. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2022, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-use-of-nuclear-weapons-and-response-rgd-ukraine/972339/115 "2022-10-01T22:43:54Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > As for “dropping a nuke from orbit”, it was proposed, in this thread at least, as a method of nuking an enemy “stealthily”. Whatever else it might be, it definitely wouldn’t be that. The biggest problem is that it’s not the sort of thing we can just do on the spur of the moment. First, we’d have to launch it, then the trick would be to deorbit it precisely enough to put it on target. Or have some kind of guidance system. Neither of which, AFAIK, the US has actually tested or even developed that capability. Yes, our space capsules land where we want them to, but our nuclear weapons aren’t powerful enough these days for that to not actually matter. > [@Chronos](#): > > I mean, fundamentally, the problem is that Putin can, if he so chooses, initiate Armageddon. If the question is how we can stop him from doing so, the answer, unfortunately, is that we can’t. Stopping him is the only good outcome, and we can’t do that, so naturally we’re not looking at good options. Exactly. And the leaders of the West have to be willing to up the ante when he blusters and threatens, AND be willing to stick with it. Which is something I am not convinced the Western leaders are ready to do, and Putin knows it. I mean, I think Biden might, being a belligerent old cuss, but I’m not at all convinced that Truss and Macron are willing to follow suit. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2022, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-use-of-nuclear-weapons-and-response-rgd-ukraine/972339/116 "2022-10-01T23:00:16Z")
> [@bump](#): > > I think Biden might, being a belligerent old cuss, but I’m not at all convinced that Truss and Macron are willing to follow suit. Do they need to be? I mean, the U.S. is perfectly capable of attacking Russia without British or French help. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2022, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-use-of-nuclear-weapons-and-response-rgd-ukraine/972339/117 "2022-10-01T23:14:32Z")
I was figuring that since the response thus far has been a mostly unified NATO response, that any nuclear response would be similarly unified, meaning that all 3 declared NATO nuclear powers would participate. But you’re right- the US can do this by itself for sure. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2022, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-use-of-nuclear-weapons-and-response-rgd-ukraine/972339/118 "2022-10-02T00:24:46Z")
I mean, if Putin is willing to threaten nuclear usage, and he thinks it’ll work, I’m a little surprised he hasn’t gone all the way to “supplying Ukraine in their aggression against us will be considered an act of war against Russia and a nuclear response will be on the table.” If you’re gonna nuclear blackmail, why not _nuclear blackmail_? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2022, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-use-of-nuclear-weapons-and-response-rgd-ukraine/972339/119 "2022-10-02T01:46:30Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > Do they need to be? I mean, the U.S. is perfectly capable of attacking Russia without British or French help. A unified front would still be a more effective deterrent, though. If just one country tells Putin “If you use nukes, you will be obliterated”, then he might think it’s a bluff. But if many countries all tell him that, then he might decide that even if some or even most of the countries are bluffing, he can’t risk the possibility that at least one of them is serious. ---
**Author:** ![ParallelLines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/parallellines/32/3575_2.png) [@ParallelLines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParallelLines)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2022, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-use-of-nuclear-weapons-and-response-rgd-ukraine/972339/120 "2022-10-02T02:03:24Z")
Let’s be clear, Putin started, almost from the beginning with the nuclear saber-rattling. > **[Putin puts nuclear deterrent on alert; West squeezes Russian economy](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/war-with-ukraine-putin-puts-nuclear-deterrence-forces-alert-2022-02-27/)** > > President Vladimir Putin put Russia's nuclear deterrent on high alert on Sunday in the face of a barrage of Western reprisals for his war on Ukraine, which said it had repelled Russian ground forces attacking its biggest cities. So he put his deterrence forces on high alter in FEBRUARY. What we’re seeing now is that instead of passively, he’s _actively_ and verbally threatening to do so. As to why? I think it’s clear, as long as he thought he could win it militarily, it was there as a reserve option, or if NATO / USA / EU had been more aggressive in it’s support (air cover, troops, etc). But now that it looks like Ukraine _might_ turn things around with only material support, he has chosen to become much more overt in his threats. So we’ve moved from, in a horrible analogy, playing a poker game with someone who mentioned he had a pistol on him at the start of the game to the same player, who’s lost the last six hands saying that they’ll shoot someone if it looks like they’re going to lose the rest of their money they won earlier. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-use-of-nuclear-weapons-and-response-rgd-ukraine/972339.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-use-of-nuclear-weapons-and-response-rgd-ukraine/972339.md?page=7)