# Russia's Depopulation Bomb. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 3, 2009, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898 "2009-04-03T18:58:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2009, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/1 "2009-04-03T18:58:41Z")
> [@](#): > > A specter is haunting Russia today. It is not the specter of Communism—that ghost has been chained in the attic of the past—but rather of depopulation—a relentless, unremitting, and perhaps unstoppable depopulation. The mass deaths associated with the Communist era may be history, but another sort of mass death may have only just begun, as Russians practice what amounts to an ethnic self-cleansing. > > Since 1992, Russia’s human numbers have been progressively dwindling. This slow motion process now taking place in the country carries with it grim and potentially disastrous implications that threaten to recast the contours of life and society in Russia, to diminish the prospects for Russian economic development, and to affect Russia’s potential influence on the world stage in the years ahead. > > Russia has faced this problem at other times during the last century. The first bout of depopulation lasted from 1917 to 1923, and was caused by the upheavals that transformed the Russian Empire into the Soviet Union. The next drop took place between 1933 and 1934, when the country’s population fell by nearly 2 million—or almost 2 percent—as a result of Stalin’s war against the “kulaks” in his forced collectivization of Soviet agriculture. And then, between 1941 and 1946, Russia’s population plummeted by more than 13 million through the cataclysms and catastrophes of World War II. > > The current Russian depopulation—which began in 1992 and shows no signs of abating—was, like the previous episodes, also precipitated by events of momentous political significance: the final dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of Communist Party rule. But it differs in three important respects. First, it is by far the longest period of population decline in modern Russian history, having persisted for over twice as long as the decline that followed the Bolshevik Revolution, and well over three times as long as the terrifying depopulation Russia experienced during and immediately after World War II. > > Second, unlike all the previous depopulations in Russia, this one has been taking place under what are, within the Russian context, basically orderly social and political circumstances. Terror and war are not the engines for the depopulation Russia is experiencing today, as they have been in the past. > > And finally, whereas Russia’s previous depopulations resulted from wild and terrible social paroxysms, they were also clearly temporary in nature. The current crisis, on the other hand, is proceeding gradually and routinely, and thus it is impossible to predict when, or whether, it will finally come to an end. [http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/2009%20-%20Spring/full-Eberstadt.html](http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/2009%20-%20Spring/full-Eberstadt.html) I don’t have the skills to really go too deeply into demographic problems but they fascinate me. What do others think of this? Especially since many here take it as gospel that the world is overpopulated and that depopulation essentially is a good thing. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Moto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de0a6/32.png) [@Mr.Moto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Moto)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2009, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/2 "2009-04-03T19:47:36Z")
The least densely populated part of Russia is Siberia. This part is also the area with the greatest concentration of resources, and it is next to a country that has ample population, a thirst for resources, and no great love for Russia or its people. The implications here are pretty obvious - they have been explored in popular fiction. And while one shouldn’t make too much of Tom Clancy novels, one should be concerned about this situation and it’s implications for possible war or annexation without war. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2009, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/3 "2009-04-03T19:48:28Z")
So you think that Russia and China might go to war for Siberia? ---
**Author:** ![Altair33](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e79b87/32.png) [@Altair33](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Altair33)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2009, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/4 "2009-04-03T20:23:57Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > So you think that Russia and China might go to war for Siberia? I think nuclear weapons, which Russia still has plenty of, have made that kind of war obsolete among major nuclear powers. Both sides know that, when one side gets truly desperate, they have plenty of nuclear warheads at their ready disposal. Plus, China’s one-child policy seems pretty effective in curbing their population growth. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2009, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/5 "2009-04-03T20:29:26Z")
This is a perfect example of why I don’t see overpopulation as a problem, that it’s systemic. Siberia has all that land for the Chinese to move into, but they won’t because of ethnic nationalism. ---
**Author:** ![Regallag\_The\_Axe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/regallag_the_axe/32/445_2.png) [@Regallag\_The\_Axe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Regallag_The_Axe)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2009, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/6 "2009-04-03T20:33:34Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > So you think that Russia and China might go to war for Siberia? I’m no international relations expert, but I don’t think so, for the reasons **Altair** mentioned. However it would be interesting (in the worst sense of the word) to see two nuclear powers go at it. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Moto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de0a6/32.png) [@Mr.Moto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Moto)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2009, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/7 "2009-04-03T21:00:27Z")
If ground troops are engaged in Siberia you can’t nuke them - you’ll take your own army out as well, and China has plenty of reserves. You can’t nuke Beijing either because you really don’t want to see Moscow and St. Petersburg vanish as well as Siberia. Nuclear weapons are just about useless in deterring this sort of attack. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2009, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/8 "2009-04-03T21:11:17Z")
If war occurs I would hope we have the good sense to stay out of it or side with China. ---
**Author:** ![Lochdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/edb3f5/32.png) [@Lochdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lochdale)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2009, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/9 "2009-04-03T21:29:03Z")
Why side with China? If they won, it would only make them that much more of a threat. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2009, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/10 "2009-04-03T21:32:40Z")
Not really. A state is more of a threat if it cannot meet its existential obligations to its population. If we resist their ability to aquire the resources they need they are far greater a threat. Nations are not threats because they are powerful, they are threats because they need something and are willing to use violence to get it. ---
**Author:** ![ExTank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/35a633/32.png) [@ExTank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ExTank)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2009, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/11 "2009-04-03T21:45:12Z")
> [@Altair33](#): > > I think nuclear weapons, which Russia still has plenty of, have made that kind of war obsolete among major nuclear powers. Both sides know that, when one side gets truly desperate, they have plenty of nuclear warheads at their ready disposal. Plus, China’s one-child policy seems pretty effective in curbing their population growth. Ahem. It’s been way too effective in curbing their _female_ population growth. [http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=3499024](http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=3499024) [http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5953508](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5953508) ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2009, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/12 "2009-04-03T21:47:20Z")
Right, China has its own population bomb. People really underestimate how significant these population bombs are going to be at stagnating population growth and contributing to future economic inequality. ---
**Author:** ![Lochdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/edb3f5/32.png) [@Lochdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lochdale)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2009, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/13 "2009-04-03T21:51:33Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > Not really. A state is more of a threat if it cannot meet its existential obligations to its population. If we resist their ability to aquire the resources they need they are far greater a threat. Nations are not threats because they are powerful, they are threats because they need something and are willing to use violence to get it. I’m not sure I subscribe to that philosophy. The other way of looking at it would be that it would embolden China to look west and it would further destabilize Russia. A Russia who would now be wounded and much more likely to lash out. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2009, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/14 "2009-04-03T21:52:31Z")
Russia is going to be destabilized anyway. It’s going through a demographic collapse and will have a top heavy population. ---
**Author:** ![Lochdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/edb3f5/32.png) [@Lochdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lochdale)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2009, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/15 "2009-04-03T22:03:07Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > Russia is going to be destabilized anyway. It’s going through a demographic collapse and will have a top heavy population. So we exacerbate that? Doesn’t seem like sound policy to me at all. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2009, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/16 "2009-04-03T22:06:21Z")
> [@Lochdale](#): > > So we exacerbate that? Doesn’t seem like sound policy to me at all. What does ‘we’ have to do with it? I said if China goes for it I hope we side with China, IE the side that will most certainly win. ---
**Author:** ![Lochdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/edb3f5/32.png) [@Lochdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lochdale)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2009, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/17 "2009-04-03T22:08:34Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > What does ‘we’ have to do with it? I said if China goes for it I hope we side with China, IE the side that will most certainly win. And I think that may not be the best policy. Supporting Russia to contain China may make more sense. Indeed, supporting Russia now may well curb China’s more expanisionist element rather than letting Russia get weaker and weaker. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2009, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/18 "2009-04-03T22:10:06Z")
Heck, I’d be rooting for India to take advantage of China’s attack on Russia. Meanwhile Pakistan sees an opportunity to attack India, bolstered by Iran, who’s then attacked by Sunni elements from Iraq. Winner: Israel. ---
**Author:** ![Markxxx](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/5daacb/32.png) [@Markxxx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Markxxx)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2009, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/19 "2009-04-03T22:53:29Z")
Siberia became Russian because no one wanted it. They still don’t. Japan didn’t invade in WWII because what’s the point. Sure it has resources but they are hard to get it. That is why they exist today, because it’s too cold and swampy and full of nothing to be worth it. There is virtually no transportation in Siberia outside of the main cities and the trans-Siberian railway. China’s population is crowded in the eastern third of the nation. China has 2/3 of it’s own nation underpopulated right now. They aren’t going to declare war on Russia to get land that people can’t live on anyway. Look at America, Alaska is full or resources and it is growing VERY, VERY slowly. Why don’t you move to Alaska now? Why indeed. It’s expensive, it’s too far and the higher wage doesn’t justify the inconvenience. There’s a difference between putting in a small population that can exploit a resource then leave and mass immigration to an inhospitable area. Espeically when more viable areas are easier to get to ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2009, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/20 "2009-04-03T23:09:01Z")
> [@Lochdale](#): > > And I think that may not be the best policy. Supporting Russia to contain China may make more sense. Indeed, supporting Russia now may well curb China’s more expanisionist element rather than letting Russia get weaker and weaker. Except China needs those resources and Russia can’t be bothered to fuck to save their own people. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898.md?page=2)