# Russia's Depopulation Bomb. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 3, 2009, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898 "2009-04-03T18:58:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![2ply](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/2/b2d939/32.png) [@2ply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2ply)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2009, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/41 "2009-04-04T22:59:12Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > Then I still fail to see the corrolation. I don’t either. ---
**Author:** ![Regallag\_The\_Axe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/regallag_the_axe/32/445_2.png) [@Regallag\_The\_Axe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Regallag_The_Axe)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2009, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/42 "2009-04-05T00:39:02Z")
> [@2ply](#): > > I don’t either. As I understand it (and I may well be wrong), at that point in European history nationalism was just staring to take off, especially in what would become Germany (remember, before the Franco-Prussian War there was no unified German state). If there were a lot of German speakers in an area, they may have considered themselves German, despite the fact that their families had been living in French territory for generations. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2009, 5:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/43 "2009-04-05T05:57:52Z")
> [@Encyclopedia Britannica](#): > > area comprising the present French départements of Haut-Rhin, Bas-Rhin, and Moselle. Alsace-Lorraine was the name given to the 5,067 square miles (13,123 square km) of territory that was ceded by France to Germany in 1871 after the Franco-German War. This territory was retroceded to France in 1919 after World War I, was ceded again to Germany in 1940 during World War II, and was again retroceded to France in 1945. I was thinking of a bit of how it was more or less the ‘germanness’ of the population made a convinent excuse for Germany to go and invade France a few times. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2009, 6:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/44 "2009-04-05T06:24:29Z")
> [@E-Sabbath](#): > > Remind anyone a little bit of Alsace-Lorraine? Sounds more like the [birth of Texas](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_Revolution). If the Chinese population in Siberia were to reach a critical mass and then declare independence from Russia, it would be Texas all over again. > [@](#): > > …The Mexican-born settlers in Texas were soon vastly outnumbered by people born in the United States. To address this situation, President Anastasio Bustamante implemented several measures on April 6, 1830. Chief among these was a prohibition against further immigration to Texas from the United States, although American citizens would be allowed to settle in other parts of Mexico. Furthermore, the property tax law, intended to exempt immigrants from paying taxes for ten years, was rescinded, and tariffs were increased on goods shipped from the United States. Bustamante also ordered Texas settlers to comply with the federal prohibition against slavery or face military intervention. These measures did not have the intended effect. Settlers simply circumvented or ignored the laws. By 1834, it was estimated that over 30,000 Anglos (white people) lived in Texas, compared to only 7800 Mexican-born citizens… ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2009, 7:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/45 "2009-04-05T07:32:16Z")
Yes, Russia is in demographic decline. But this might actually be a good thing-higher wages for labor and better living standards. Is INDIA a great place to live (with their exploding populations?). As for China, yes, China needs and wants the vast resources of Siberia-but I don’t see large numbers of people wanting o live there-it is inhospitable under the best of circumstances. China is going to have huge problems all its own-look at wha will happen when unemployment rises (as it is doing now). I predice the collapse of the communist government in 5-10 years. As for countries with aging populations (like Western Europe): what can’t people keep working in their late 60’s? Obviously, you cannot be a construction worker at age 68-but your can certainly do most jobs at that age. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2009, 12:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/46 "2009-04-05T12:52:36Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > Yes, Russia is in demographic decline. But this might actually be a good thing-higher wages for labor and better living standards. Is INDIA a great place to live (with their exploding populations?). As for China, yes, China needs and wants the vast resources of Siberia-but I don’t see large numbers of people wanting o live there-it is inhospitable under the best of circumstances. This seems to be based on the fallacy that money has a value in and of itself. It doesn’t. Higher wages are irrelevant if your economy isn’t actually, ‘productive’. > [@](#): > > China is going to have huge problems all its own-look at wha will happen when unemployment rises (as it is doing now). I predice the collapse of the communist government in 5-10 years. > As for countries with aging populations (like Western Europe): what can’t people keep working in their late 60’s? Obviously, you cannot be a construction worker at age 68-but your can certainly do most jobs at that age. Yes you can, and that will be necessary. It will be interesting to see how Europe handles the tax on its socialist entitlements in the next twenty years. ---
**Author:** ![Henrichek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/5daacb/32.png) [@Henrichek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Henrichek)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2009, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/47 "2009-04-05T14:00:17Z")
From what I have read in various news articles, this downward trend has been slowed down in recent years and is predicted to turn around soon. Here’s a news article about it: [http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080123/97616414.html](http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080123/97616414.html). ---
**Author:** ![Brandus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/898d66/32.png) [@Brandus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Brandus)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2009, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/48 "2009-04-05T15:39:28Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > Y I predice the collapse of the communist government in 5-10 years. This seems a little rash, don’t you think? Their grip seems tighter than ever these days. This thoughtful article from a man who actually lived in China sees quite the opposite. [China's Way Forward - The Atlantic](http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200904/chinese-innovation) > [@](#): > > might China prove vulnerable to Soviet-style discontent born of a slowing economy? My guess is No. China faces big problems, and its modern history has been marked by the unforeseen. Perhaps we will look back at the spectacle and choreography of the Beijing Olympics opening ceremonies as the last time the world thought there was no limit to what China could achieve. But I am betting the other way… He ends up listing several good reasons that demonstrate the CCP knows what its doing - and the populace isn’t exactly an eyelash away from violently overthrowing them. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2009, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/49 "2009-04-06T16:09:06Z")
From what I understand China is making efforts to turn it’s vast manufacturing resources inward to create an internal economy that can better weather external storms. ---
**Author:** ![caveman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/caveman/32/7242_2.png) [@caveman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/caveman)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2009, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/50 "2009-04-06T23:00:51Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > So let’s put all this together, shall we? > > Ethnic Russians are a vanishing breed and it appears do not really want to live in Russia’s Far East. The ethnic Chinese population in Russia’s Far East is growing fast, has strong ties back home, is a tight community, and as much as their labor may be needed is not being welcomed as members of Russian society - they are “others”. Russian nationalism has often had a strong ethnic component to it. Ethnic Chinese in Russia are unlikely to develop a strong Russian national identity any time soon. China needs the natural resources that are contained in the Russian Far East and likely will for many years and Russia’s economy right now is based on very little but the exploitation of natural resources. The EU hopes to eventually be less dependent on Russia for natural gas and we are already getting a taste of what Russia’s economy will be dealing with in a possible future world with less demand for its resources. > > An invasion by China seems less likely than eventual moves for “autonomy” if not outright independence from Russia with perhaps some covert support from China. How that plays out I would not hazard a guess. So, China is Russia’s Mexico? At least for paranoid right-wing talk radio values of Mexico. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2009, 11:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/51 "2009-04-06T23:03:07Z")
Heh except China is not in the process of imploding due to a civil war between the army and militant criminal cartels. 😉 I think Russia has many Mexicos in that regard. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2009, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/52 "2009-04-07T00:07:18Z")
Actually, Russia is re-arming-they are building new nuclear submarines, and upgrading their aircraft. I think they may well plan a return to superpower status. What good this will do them is open to question-if I were Medvedev/Putin, I’d be spending the money on infrastructure and public health. ---
**Author:** ![Lust4Life](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ecc23a/32.png) [@Lust4Life](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lust4Life)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2009, 11:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/53 "2009-04-07T11:40:01Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > [http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/2009%20-%20Spring/full-Eberstadt.html](http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/2009%20-%20Spring/full-Eberstadt.html) > > I don’t have the skills to really go too deeply into demographic problems but they fascinate me. What do others think of this? Especially since many here take it as gospel that the world is overpopulated and that depopulation essentially is a good thing. Having more people alive at this point in time then we’ve had in all of history,six billion and rising quite rapidly, I think its fair to say that the world has an overpopulation problem. And while the populations in some third world countries may not be heavy industrial users their deforestation and desertification are most definitely having their effect on the the world. If the figures for Russias apparent decline in population are actually accurate and the decline becomes a permament event rather then a passing trend, while encouraging in the short term this will still be nowhere near enough to save the planet from the fast approaching crisis caused by too many people having too many children using up too many resources and causing too much environmental damage and too much pollution. Is Siberia fertile enough to sustain a massivly increased population? I’m not asking a rhetorical question here I honestly dont know. ---
**Author:** ![Wallenstein](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b5a626/32.png) [@Wallenstein](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wallenstein)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2009, 11:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/54 "2009-04-07T11:54:37Z")
> [@Lust4Life](#): > > \*\*Having more people alive at this point in time then we’ve had in all of history,\*\*six billion and rising quite rapidly, I think its fair to say that the world has an overpopulation problem. Soz, this is most likely an urban myth, although depends on what you count as “human history”. > **[Living Outnumber Dead](https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/recount-your-dead/)** > > Do the living outnumber the dead? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2009, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/55 "2009-04-07T12:43:25Z")
> [@Lust4Life](#): > > Is Siberia fertile enough to sustain a massivly increased population? [Here](http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2008/08/rs_20Aug2008/) is a report about Russia’s current state and how they could significantly increase production just with more standard fertilizer use and land reforms. More so global climate change is expected to likely increase productivity in Russia’s Far East significantly, especially if precipitation increases rather than decreases along with warming there (not much confidence from the models which way it will go). So maybe yes. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Bytegeist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9dc877/32.png) [@Bytegeist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bytegeist)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2009, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/56 "2009-04-07T23:41:11Z")
> [@spoke-](#): > > … it would be Texas all over again. No. **Dear God** , no. Not another one. ---
**Author:** ![Lust4Life](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ecc23a/32.png) [@Lust4Life](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lust4Life)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2009, 10:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/57 "2009-04-08T10:15:26Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > [Here](http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2008/08/rs_20Aug2008/) is a report about Russia’s current state and how they could significantly increase production just with more standard fertilizer use and land reforms. More so global climate change is expected to likely increase productivity in Russia’s Far East significantly, especially if precipitation increases rather than decreases along with warming there (not much confidence from the models which way it will go). > > So maybe yes. > > 🙂 Did a quick Wiki which said that Siberias agriculture was limited by a harsh climate and poor soils but it was better in the west of the region. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2009, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/58 "2009-04-09T15:46:15Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > Right, China has its own population bomb. People really underestimate how significant these population bombs are going to be at stagnating population growth and contributing to future economic inequality. How does it relate to economic inequality? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2009, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/59 "2009-04-09T15:47:18Z")
> [@Lochdale](#): > > Why side with China? If they won, it would only make them that much more of a threat. To whom are they a threat now? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2009, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898/60 "2009-04-09T15:48:47Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > Russia is going to be destabilized anyway. It’s going through a demographic collapse and will have a top heavy population. By “top heavy,” do you mean a preponderance of senior citizens? Lots of countries are dealing with a “grayby boom” but there’s no sign it threatens to destabilize them. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russias-depopulation-bomb/491898.md?page=4)