# Sales are down this year. Really? **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [December 21, 2007, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866 "2007-12-21T20:51:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Hampshire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hampshire/32/4887_2.png) [@Hampshire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hampshire)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2007, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/1 "2007-12-21T20:51:38Z")
I’m about to call B.S. on these same song-and-dance stories the media pulls out every year claiming “[Sales are down this year!](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22361066/)”. I swear this is a charade reatiler’s PR/Marketing departments pull out of their ass every year to entice people into thinking prices are being slashed. “Our sales are really hurting this season compared to last. We’re going to have to drastically reduce prices to get rid of all this stuff.” Really??? How come I see this same stupid story every year? If sales really go down every year does that mean the last time they had a good year was 1992 and they’ve been downhill ever since? When was the last time you were at Costco or Best Buy this month? People were buying so much crap it looked like they were stockpiling for WWIII. I’m not buying this “Shed a tear for the retailers this season” crap anymore. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2007, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/2 "2007-12-21T21:01:21Z")
The story does mix anecdotal and “official” information, and I can see why that would stir your suspicions. I don’t know what you’ve read in previous years; I certainly don’t remember stories like this from past years but I didn’t really pay attention. But I think the story is generally on target and sales are down this year. [QUOTE=Hampshire] When was the last time you were at Costco or Best Buy this month? People were buying so much crap it looked like they were stockpiling for WWIII. [/QUOTE] Oh, well, if there were a lot of people shopping the last time you went to the store, the story must be baloney. 😉 These kinds of stories are often about sales relative to expectations. And relative to expectations, yes, I think the season has been disappointing. Not for Best Buy, though. ---
**Author:** ![ivylass](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/9de053/32.png) [@ivylass](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ivylass)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2007, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/3 "2007-12-21T22:08:34Z")
Well, it depends on what they mean by “down.” Are they down by sales goals? Generally, businesses want to do better this year than last year. Or are they down compared to last year, or pacing? So if a business sold $1 million last year, and their goal was $2 million this year, but they only sold $1.5 million, then they could be “down,” even though they did better than last year. ---
**Author:** ![Una\_Persson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/una_persson/32/346_2.png) [@Una\_Persson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Una_Persson)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2007, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/4 "2007-12-21T22:11:05Z")
I know what the OP’s talking about. Every year since 2001 my un-scientific impression is that media has been trumpeting from the highest high the doom and gloom that we should all be feeling because “SALES ARE DOWN! RETAILERS NERVOUS! CAN THE CHILDREN BE SAVED?” ---
**Author:** ![Humble\_Servant](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/47e85d/32.png) [@Humble\_Servant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Humble_Servant)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2007, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/5 "2007-12-21T22:32:27Z")
How’s this for a really mixed and confusing report from an actual financial source, Bloomberg, which should know better: > [@](#): > > Dec. 21 (Bloomberg) – Consumer spending in the U.S. rose more than forecast in November, allaying concern that the slowest shopping season in five years may have already pushed the economy into recession. > > Purchases gained 1.1 percent after a 0.4 percent increase in October that was more than previously estimated, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. … > > While the gain in November spending was the biggest in more than two years, it preceded reports by Circuit City Stores Inc., Best Buy Co. and other retailers that warned of a slump in purchases. A private report today showed consumer confidence slid to the lowest level in more than two years in December. … > > Economists forecast spending would rise 0.7 percent, after an originally reported 0.2 percent increase in October, according to the median of 73 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The November increase was the biggest since July 2005… > > Weekly surveys suggest the November spending boom may not be sustained. Holiday sales declined in the seven days ended Dec. 15 for the third straight week, according to ShopperTrak RCT Corp. **This year’s holiday season may be the weakest since 2002** , \*\*[why? because it didn’t increase at the 2002 rate or because the overall dollars spent is less than in 2002?]\*\*according to the National Retail Federation. > > The advance in sales last month, and a higher estimate for October purchases than previously reported, indicates the economy won’t contract this quarter as some analysts had predicted. … > > The earliest Thanksgiving holiday since 2001 may have pushed more purchases of Christmas gifts into November, suggesting sales this month will suffer, economists said. … > > Adjusted for inflation, spending increased 0.5 percent, the most this year, after a 0.1 percent increase the prior month, the report showed. > > Because the increase in spending was larger than the gain in incomes, the savings rate dropped… I think this is saying that the **rate increase** in sales in November was better than predicted and at a higher **rate increase** than any single month since 2002, but that the holiday season as a whole will be.. .who knows exactly what they are saying in that bolded bit? ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2007, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/6 "2007-12-21T22:42:19Z")
It’s not going that well for some retailers, like [Circuit City.](http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071221/bs_nm/circuitcity_dc_4) > [@](#): > > Electronics retailer Circuit City Stores Inc (CC.N) forecast a loss for the holiday season on Friday, citing store changes that were hurting sales, and its shares plummeted almost 25 percent to four-year lows. > > The company, which also reported a wider-than-expected third-quarter loss, had previously forecast a profit for the current quarter that includes the Christmas holiday. And here’s a Bloomberg story that says, yes, sales are actually, really, truly down. [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/19/AR2007121902100.html](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/19/AR2007121902100.html) ---
**Author:** ![ArizonaTeach](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/45deac/32.png) [@ArizonaTeach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ArizonaTeach)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2007, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/7 "2007-12-22T00:59:41Z")
I always wonder [if](http://www.internetretailing.net/news/us-christmas-spending-hits-4-6-billion-a-week)[internet](http://www.blackenterprise.com/yb/ybopen.asp?section=ybaa&story_id=113114273&ID=blackenterprise) [sales](http://www.bizreport.com/2007/12/online_sales_surge_as_delivery_deadlines_loom.html) [factor](http://affiliatetip.com/news/article001591.php) [into](http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/prnewswire/CLSU01009122007-1.htm) [this.](http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7009268130) Answer: Apparantly not. So, I call shenanigans, too. [Here’s an article](http://www.sacbee.com/103/story/525815.html) that says sales are up 2.5%, for what it’s worth. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2007, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/8 "2007-12-22T01:58:09Z")
Also, gift card sales are not included. The last year that I heard positive reports about was 1999. The dot com boom was going to have people buying outlandish gifts. It has been doom and gloom ever since. ---
**Author:** ![TheLoadedDog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/35a633/32.png) [@TheLoadedDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TheLoadedDog)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2007, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/9 "2007-12-22T02:01:49Z")
I work for Australia Post. Mail volumes are UP. This is the busiest Christmas I can remember for quite a few years (probably the busiest this century so far). People are mailing stuff they have _bought_. So yes it’s anecdotal, but my gut feel is that the retailers are doing ok. There are storm clouds on the economy’s horizon, but they haven’t yet hit at the consumer level, I don’t think. US sub prime is doing damage, but it’s still a bit of an unknown quantity. ---
**Author:** ![Tenebras](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/977dab/32.png) [@Tenebras](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tenebras)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2007, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/10 "2007-12-22T02:10:52Z")
A friend of mine works in a relatively upscale clothing store, and they’re having problems. Not just in terms of meeting their sales goals but also matching their sales from last year. Her experience is that people just aren’t buying as much this year. I think we should get all of our anecdotes together and have them fight it out in a thunderdome deathmatch. Chainsaws! ---
**Author:** ![OtakuLoki](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/ac8455/32.png) [@OtakuLoki](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OtakuLoki)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2007, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/11 "2007-12-22T02:18:14Z")
I think that the OP is onto something. ISTR complaints about how holiday seasons making/breaking retail businesses for years, and that the last several years had been mostly talking about “the current weak” holiday spending would doom lots of companies. It’s only anecdotal, but I’m another who does think that this is a trick that’s been tried before. Having said that, I wouldn’t be surprised to find out that this time it’s right - since AIUI holiday spending, more than any other, tends to follow economic confidence, and right now, economic confidence is taking a hit. So, it’s the boy calling wolf, again. And maybe this time the little bugger is gonna get et. And there’s a part of me that’s thinking of leaving Boss Sauce\* out for the wolf. \*gotta do my bit to plug Rochester businesses… It’s a weak holiday season, after all. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2007, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/12 "2007-12-22T02:41:21Z")
[QUOTE=Tenebras] A friend of mine works in a relatively upscale clothing store, and they’re having problems. Not just in terms of meeting their sales goals but also matching their sales from last year. Her experience is that people just aren’t buying as much this year. I think we should get all of our anecdotes together and have them fight it out in a thunderdome deathmatch. Chainsaws! [/QUOTE] The Times had an article about how women’s clothes were especially down, and speculated that women bought for themselves last, so a crunch would be felt there first. Luxury goods, however, were doing fine, We’re basically not going to know until Christmas is over. A basically 3 day weekend right before is perfect for stores. But they are panicked. We were getting 20 - 30% discount coupons from Macy’s and Borders every bloody day. Discover had a program that gave you a $20 gift card for every $200 spent in the same mall. How they’re making money on that is beyond me. ---
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2007, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/13 "2007-12-22T02:42:25Z")
Given that it’s highly likely that [Black Friday being the day at which a business becomes profitable is total bullshit](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=397469), I’m going to say the gloom and doom predictions for this holiday season are crap too. I live a couple blocks away from the local Wal-Martisqatsi, and I can tell you that the parking lot of the place is as jammed as it usually is this time of year. ---
**Author:** ![SnakesCatLady](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/4af34b/32.png) [@SnakesCatLady](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SnakesCatLady)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2007, 3:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/14 "2007-12-22T03:46:55Z")
Maybe people are waiting later than usual to do their shopping? I was in Wally World Thursday after midnight and there were several people with two baskets each loaded down with toys and other gifty items. Damnitall, it’s supposed to be dead in there after midnight… ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2007, 4:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/15 "2007-12-22T04:09:15Z")
Like they say on Sopranos"don’t take it too personally, it’s just business" ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2007, 4:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/16 "2007-12-22T04:17:54Z")
[QUOTE=ArizonaTeach] [Here’s an article](http://www.sacbee.com/103/story/525815.html) that says sales are up 2.5%, for what it’s worth. [/QUOTE] I notice your article was dated Nov. 28. It’s possible there was a big, sale-driven Thanksgiving weekend and then things landed with a thud. Like **Voyager** said, we won’t really know anything until it’s all over. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2007, 9:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/17 "2007-12-22T09:06:26Z")
[QUOTE=Voyager] But they are panicked. We were getting 20 - 30% discount coupons from Macy’s and Borders every bloody day. Discover had a program that gave you a $20 gift card for every $200 spent in the same mall. How they’re making money on that is beyond me. [/QUOTE] Yeah, that’s key. Black Friday was long enough ago that a lot of companies have reported their results from that time, and I certainly saw some companies that had to offer bigger than expected discounts and got smaller profits as a result. I don’t know the figures, but I’ve seen a lot of commentary about various businesses taking a hit because people don’t seem to be spending as much this season. [QUOTE=TheLoadedDog] I work for Australia Post. Mail volumes are UP. This is the busiest Christmas I can remember for quite a few years (probably the busiest this century so far). People are mailing stuff they have _bought_. So yes it’s anecdotal, but my gut feel is that the retailers are doing ok. There are storm clouds on the economy’s horizon, but they haven’t yet hit at the consumer level, I don’t think. US sub prime is doing damage, but it’s still a bit of an unknown quantity. [/QUOTE] Who does your company mail to, and what do they send? Sales of every single thing aren’t down, obvously. But, for example, it’s widely believed that higher-end stuff is being hurt as people trade down to cheaper products whenever they can. What’s unknown at this point is how far it’s going to go. It’s really nailed some major banks - I wouldn’t expect you to be up on this in Australia, but some major US financial institutions have fired their CEOs over what’s happened. They’ve written down tens of billions of dollars in loans that they’ll never get back, and more of that is coming. A few companies reported quarterly losses for the first time ever. What started with subprime housing is now hurting all kinds of credit. ---
**Author:** ![tnetennba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7993a0/32.png) [@tnetennba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tnetennba)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2007, 9:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/18 "2007-12-22T09:45:07Z")
What I hate is the term “consumer confidence.” As if people deciding not to sink further into consumer debt is insecurity or low self esteem. ---
**Author:** ![Dead\_Badger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/848f3c/32.png) [@Dead\_Badger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dead_Badger)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2007, 10:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/19 "2007-12-22T10:20:06Z")
[QUOTE=cricetus] What I hate is the term “consumer confidence.” As if people deciding not to sink further into consumer debt is insecurity or low self esteem. [/QUOTE] Well, I think you’re reading a bit much in to the phrase; it obviously refers to financial confidence, not personal. It doesn’t even imply that low consumer confidence is anything but a rational response to external economic circumstances, so there’s not even an implicit value judgment there. I suspect you know this, of course, it just seems like a weird thing to be annoyed by. There is undoubtedly some factor in people’s decision-making processes that dictates how likely they are to want to either increase their debt or hold on to their cash. I can’t really think of a better way to describe it than “consumer confidence”. “Short term capital affinity” doesn’t exactly trip off the tongue… 🙂 Of course, I’m only replying here because I haven’t finished my Christmas shopping, and am seeking any excuse to delay heading outside where I am fairly confident I will end up mutilating a fellow consumer within 30 seconds. Ah, the holiday spirit. ---
**Author:** ![buttonjockey308](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/bcef8e/32.png) [@buttonjockey308](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/buttonjockey308)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2007, 12:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/20 "2007-12-22T12:03:06Z")
[QUOTE=Marley23] What’s unknown at this point is how far it’s going to go. It’s really nailed some major banks, but some major US financial institutions have fired their CEOs over what’s happened. They’ve written down tens of billions of dollars in loans that they’ll never get back, and more of that is coming. A few companies reported quarterly losses for the first time ever. What started with subprime housing is now hurting all kinds of credit. [/QUOTE] Well, I have kind of a different take on it; the subprime mess is a bit like a shop owner ordering and keeping too much inventory. Once the homeowners who bought into these stupid, stupid loans begin to default on them, the assets of a lender change from cash to property, which in many cases is over-valued, but a simple (and I say simple knowing how difficult it is) accrual-based analysis of the financials of a company will tell you what they REALLY have. Granted, cash is king, but the picture for everybody CAN be a lot rosier with ALL of the information, I mean, it’s not like the houses just disappear when a client defaults on a loan, so the losses, while still significant, aren’t complete, and the final analysis is FAR from over. As far as the OP? I agree. When you “expect” something to happen and it doesn’t, and you base your margins on this ‘expectation’ you get what you have coming. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866.md?page=2)