# Sales are down this year. Really? **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [December 21, 2007, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866 "2007-12-21T20:51:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e36b37/32.png) [@Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airman_Doors_USAF)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2007, 4:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/41 "2007-12-25T04:02:18Z")
My uncle, who owns a prominent retail business chain in the region, told me that business for him is extremely slow, and he chalks it up to high gas prices. Take that for what it’s worth. ---
**Author:** ![Ferret\_Herder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e47774/32.png) [@Ferret\_Herder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ferret_Herder)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2007, 4:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/42 "2007-12-25T04:07:29Z")
And just now, the local NBC affiliate runs a spot about how sales are up 7% this year. :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Tamex](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ccd318/32.png) [@Tamex](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamex)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2007, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/43 "2007-12-25T15:20:15Z")
Christmas was pretty low-key for me this year. I just didn’t have the time, money, or energy. I think a lot of my co-workers felt the same way. Nobody even felt like organizing the big potluck lunch that we normally have. Our bonuses, which now come in March, were way lower than previous years. Snow fell early, so a lot of procrastinators never put outdoor lights up. The stores were never super busy, except for the grocery store yesterday (I suspect that was partially weather-related as well–I would have gone Saturday or Sunday, but the roads were terrible.) I wouldn’t be surprised if sales were down this Christmas. I feel too burnt out these days just doing regular stuff. A day off doing nothing at all would be more special to me than just about any gift. ---
**Author:** ![elmwood](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmwood/32/3060_2.png) [@elmwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elmwood)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2007, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/44 "2007-12-25T15:25:35Z")
[QUOTE=Hampshire] I’m about to call B.S. on these same song-and-dance stories the media pulls out every year claiming “[Sales are down this year!](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22361066/)”. [/QUOTE] Let’s not forget that farmers in the United States always complain that the last year had the worst weather and crop yield of all time; it was either the wettest or driest season since weather statistics were first kept. ---
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2007, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/45 "2007-12-25T15:27:35Z")
[Crisis averted! The economy is saved for another year!](http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gzMg0eD2gkQftjh4jTl63D-3_gxQD8TO33500) > [@](#): > > “Overall, we will pull off a pretty decent performance,” said Michael P. Niemira, chief economist, who is sticking with his December forecast for a slim 1.5 percent gain in same-store sales, or sales at stores opened at least a year. That would mean same-stores sales in the November-December period would be up 2.5 percent from a year ago, though still below the 2.9 percent gain seen in 2006. (In some sectors, sales were up 20% over the year before.) Whew! Your housing’s worth nothing, your credit cards are all maxed out, and your income has been flat, but you _still_ managed to pull it out at the last minute! Thank you, America! 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Brainiac4](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/brainiac4/32/3534_2.png) [@Brainiac4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Brainiac4)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2007, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/46 "2007-12-25T15:38:50Z")
Working in retail ecommerce here… Without disclosing anything that will get me in trouble, I can tell you that I know overall consumer spending is down, especially for big-ticket items (plasma TVs, cars, and the like) due to lower “consumer confidence.” Combined with increases in the baseline cost of business due to increased energy costs, among other things, this can cause serious problems. And bear in mind that the amount of margin in many retail businesses (the difference between the retailer’s cost and what you pay) has been steadily shrinking. Things are getting cheaper to manufacture, but retail prices are dropping as well. Take plasma TVs, for example. A few years ago, you were looking at $10,000 or more. This year, prices are under $1,000. Even if the retailer’s margin percentage stayed stable, that’s still a lot less revenue per sale. That’s not to say that there isn’t some amount of bullshit in the gloom & doom stories, of course. But there are plenty of retailers who are on the edge of going under, and when was the last time you saw a happy story on the evening news? ---
**Author:** ![ArizonaTeach](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/45deac/32.png) [@ArizonaTeach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ArizonaTeach)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2007, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/47 "2007-12-26T00:05:09Z")
Yeah. Final answer seems to be a [raise of 3.6%](http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSN2527320071225?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&rpc=23&sp=true), which is lower than expectations. So…spending isn’t down; in fact it’s up, anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Hell, [luxury goods rose by 7.1%](http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=akEbVR.PvNSA) So, only in America can that be a disappointment, I guess. ---
**Author:** ![Zebra](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/c0e974/32.png) [@Zebra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zebra)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2007, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/48 "2007-12-26T18:49:54Z")
Well I spent less this year then I did last year. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2007, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/49 "2007-12-26T19:12:48Z")
[QUOTE=ArizonaTeach] So…spending isn’t down; in fact it’s up… [/QUOTE] Only when you don’t adjust the figures for inflation. ---
**Author:** ![mhendo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mhendo/32/3159_2.png) [@mhendo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mhendo)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2007, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/50 "2007-12-26T19:42:26Z")
[QUOTE=Squink] Only when you don’t adjust the figures for inflation. [/QUOTE] That depends on whether the studies quoted in those news stories take inflation into account when calculating changing year-to-year spending patterns. It doesn’t say whether or not they do in the news articles that i’ve looked at. If you have definitive evidence that they do, or don’t, i’d be happy to see it. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2007, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/51 "2007-12-26T20:38:51Z")
[First Results on Holiday Retail Sales: Falling in Real Terms](http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/234146) > [@](#): > > Retail sales growth was much worse in real terms; since CPI inflation is running now above 4% retail sales this weak imply negative real retail sales throughout the holiday season. i.e. falling consumption spending. The retail sales data announced today exclude sales on automobiles that, based on separate evidence, look like they have been weak during December. ---
**Author:** ![mhendo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mhendo/32/3159_2.png) [@mhendo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mhendo)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2007, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/52 "2007-12-26T21:18:30Z")
Thanks for the link. So, it does indeed seem as though sales are slightly down this year, once inflation is taken into account. I must say, though, that i still can’t get too worked up about it. The notion that there somehow NEEDS to be a substantial increase in spending every holiday season is pretty wrongheaded thinking in the first place, IMO. ---
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2007, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/53 "2007-12-26T22:06:12Z")
[QUOTE=mhendo] Thanks for the link. So, it does indeed seem as though sales are slightly down this year, once inflation is taken into account. I must say, though, that i still can’t get too worked up about it. The notion that there somehow NEEDS to be a substantial increase in spending every holiday season is pretty wrongheaded thinking in the first place, IMO. [/QUOTE] Agreed, and automobile sales are _always_ weak in December. People don’t like buying a shiny new car if they know it’s going to get covered in ice and snow and salt the moment they drive it off the lot. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2007, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/54 "2007-12-26T22:17:26Z")
[QUOTE=mhendo] I must say, though, that i still can’t get too worked up about it. The notion that there somehow NEEDS to be a substantial increase in spending every holiday season is pretty wrongheaded thinking in the first place, IMO. [/QUOTE] It seems like that sort of ‘wrongheaded thinking’ rears its head every time the nation starts flirting with recession. Of course, it’s never reported that we actually _have_ recessions until ‘the worst is past.’ Econ reporting is funny in a lot of ways. ---
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2007, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/55 "2007-12-26T22:23:05Z")
[QUOTE=Squink] It seems like that sort of ‘wrongheaded thinking’ rears its head every time the nation starts flirting with recession. Of course, it’s never reported that we actually _have_ recessions until ‘the worst is past.’ Econ reporting is funny in a lot of ways. [/QUOTE] Yes, and what counts as a recession and what doesn’t isn’t something that’s carved in stone, either. Certain economists look over the data, think about it, and say, “We’re in a recession!” It’s not like any reasonably intelligent person could get the data and say, “Well, these elements are all down by X amount, so that means we’re in a recession.” Nope. There’s _no_ set rules for what constitutes a recession, which says to me that economics has as much to do with science as astrology, and that much of it is no better than divining the future by reading goat entrails. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2007, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/56 "2007-12-26T23:50:33Z")
Without saying anything that will get me in trouble…consumer spending, using one particular type of credit card that you would recognize in an instant, is up 7% between this holiday season and last year’s. A modest increase, but an increase nonetheless. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2007, 5:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/57 "2007-12-27T05:31:57Z")
[QUOTE=jsc1953] one particular type of credit card that you would recognize in an instant, is up 7%… [/QUOTE] I’ll bet [this news](http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,318132,00.html), just puts the cherry on top of the joy in the Christmas stocking of that particular credit company: > [@](#): > > The value of credit card accounts at least 30 days late jumped 26 percent to $17.3 billion in October from a year earlier at 17 large credit card trusts examined by the AP. That represented more than 4 percent of the total outstanding principal balances owed to the trusts on credit cards that were issued by banks such as Bank of America and Capital One and for retailers like Home Depot and Wal-Mart. > > At the same time, defaults — when lenders essentially give up hope of ever being repaid and write off the debt — rose 18 percent to almost $961 million in October, according to filings made by the trusts with the Securities and Exchange Commission. > > Serious delinquencies also are up sharply: Some of the nation’s biggest lenders — including Advanta, GE Money Bank and HSBC — reported increases of 50 percent or more in the value of accounts that were at least 90 days delinquent when compared with the same period a year ago. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2007, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/58 "2007-12-27T13:26:48Z")
[It was a banner year at the Bezos household!](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7161023.stm) > [@](#): > > Online retail giant [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) says the 2007 holiday season was its strongest since the firm began trading in 1994. > > On its busiest day, 10 December, customers ordered more than 5.4 million items - 62.5 books, DVDs and other products per second. > > By comparison, on last year’s busiest day, 11 December, customers ordered four million items. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2007, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/59 "2007-12-27T15:51:10Z")
[QUOTE=Squink] I’ll bet [this news](http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,318132,00.html), just puts the cherry on top of the joy in the Christmas stocking of that particular credit company: 😉 [/QUOTE] To the banks that issue the credit cards…yes. To the company that manages the transaction network…no. They don’t care if you carry a balance, pay your bill, or what your interest rate is, just as long as you use the card. ---
**Author:** ![Max\_Torque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Max\_Torque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Max_Torque)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2007, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866/60 "2007-12-27T20:17:39Z")
Not including gift cards in the sales totals is true flim-flam. I’ve seen economists on the news saying things like, “And now that Christmas is over people will be using those gift cards, which will really help sales.” HELP sales? Okay, maybe we need to go over what a gift card really is again… A gift card is basically an interest-free loan to the company you’re buying it from. If you buy a $50 gift card on December 1st, that company has $50 extra in its pockets, on which it may earn interest for 25 days until your intended recipient unwraps that card. When the card is used, the company is _losing_ the money it had previously borrowed from you, handing it over in the form of merchandise. The company gains nothing from you redeeming a gift card. In truth, they hope you forget to ever use it. Let’s say a company sold $100 million in gift cards, didn’t sell one widget of merchandise, and no one ever came in to redeem their cards. By their math, total sales are zero, and yet they’ve got a hundred million bucks in the bank. If they cried about how horrible their sales were, I’d kick 'em in the corporate nutsack. Gift card sales, according to Bloomberg, roughly totaled $20 billion this year, accounting for 11 percent of all holiday sales. So, they claim that sales are down by 3 percent, but 11 percent of the money spent has yet to be counted? Gimmie a break. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sales-are-down-this-year-really/430866.md?page=4)