# Sam Wang's NYT piece: Polls don't change **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 29, 2016, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sam-wangs-nyt-piece-polls-dont-change/770069 "2016-10-29T23:05:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2016, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sam-wangs-nyt-piece-polls-dont-change/770069/41 "2016-10-31T16:53:53Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > They have ceased to be an honorable partner in guiding the ship of state and until they can exorcise the demons within, shouldn’t win any national elections. Then you should pray to God or luck or whatever higher power you choose that an alternative arises. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2016, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sam-wangs-nyt-piece-polls-dont-change/770069/42 "2016-10-31T17:00:26Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > We have become a nation of tribes. The Blue Tribe will vote for Clinton, the Red Tribe will vote for Trump. Replace either candidate with Charles Manson, and the vote would be the same. There’s a Tom Clancy novel (can’t recall which) in which Jack Ryan is told that Hitler could run for U.S. president and get 40% of the vote simply by virtue of belonging to one of the two major political parties. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2016, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sam-wangs-nyt-piece-polls-dont-change/770069/43 "2016-10-31T17:01:47Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > I think there was a really good chance for crossover voting this year if the Republicans had put up someone like Romney or John McCain or if the Democrats had put up someone like John Kerry or Al Gore. I don’t know any Democrats that are crossing over (but I don’t live in the rust belt), but I know more than a handful of Republicans that are swallowing real hard and voting for someone they despise to prevent the election of someone dangerous. Exactly; both sides really fumbled the ball this year. A likable Democrat vs. Trump = Democratic landslide. A decent Republican vs. Hillary = Republican victory. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2016, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sam-wangs-nyt-piece-polls-dont-change/770069/44 "2016-10-31T17:02:26Z")
> [@dtilque](#): > > I agree that the email thing is a lot of sound and fury on Fox News, signifying nothing. I disagree. The email thing helps Trump. Not because of the substance of the issue, but because it changes the conversation. ISTM that the pattern of the campaign since the general election has been that Trump drifts close or even edges ahead, and then he does or says something outrageous and/or idiotic which drags him down again. Then a brief quiet period occurs and he drifts back up a bit, followed by him going off the deep end again and dragging himself back down. Point being that if he can keep the public focus away from him and his idiocy and offensiveness, he can stay in contention. This is where the new revelations help him. To the extent people and media coverage are focused on Clinton’s email issues and whether or not Comey did the right thing in releasing the letter, then they are not being focused on what an obnoxious buffoon and incompetent Trump is. And that’s all for the better, for him. ---
**Author:** ![Andy\_L](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c67d28/32.png) [@Andy\_L](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andy_L)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2016, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sam-wangs-nyt-piece-polls-dont-change/770069/45 "2016-10-31T17:09:36Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > There’s a Tom Clancy novel (can’t recall which) in which Jack Ryan is told that Hitler could run for U.S. president and get 40% of the vote simply by virtue of belonging to one of the two major political parties. “Executive Orders” ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2016, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sam-wangs-nyt-piece-polls-dont-change/770069/46 "2016-10-31T17:11:09Z")
> [@Andy\_L](#): > > “Executive Orders” Ah thanks! ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2016, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sam-wangs-nyt-piece-polls-dont-change/770069/47 "2016-10-31T17:14:12Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > In the minds of almost all voters, here’s the entire Clinton Email Narrative: > > TRUMPIST: Crooked Hillary’s email server scandal proves she’s corrupt and should be locked up. > CLINTONISTA: Hillary broke no law and it’s not important. > > What about this weird Comey letter changes those narratives? Nothing at all. There’s another angle you might not be considering: The “4 more years of this shit?” angle. Or “Wow, so now I’m supposed to vote for someone who might actually be indicted” angle. Partisans will look at this as just more fishing – and as a Clinton partisan that’s what I’m inclined to believe as well. But you’re wrong if you think that this can’t influence the rather large number of uncommitted voters still waiting to cast votes, or who decide simply not to cast them at all. I don’t think this latest news in any way shape or form compels Clinton supporters - even soft ones - to vote for Trump. Rather, it compels those who were leaning toward Clinton to simply stay at home and do something else. Are you saying that this wouldn’t concern the Clinton campaign? ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2016, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sam-wangs-nyt-piece-polls-dont-change/770069/48 "2016-10-31T19:19:01Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > There’s a Tom Clancy novel (can’t recall which) in which Jack Ryan is told that Hitler could run for U.S. president and get 40% of the vote simply by virtue of belonging to one of the two major political parties. Hunter S. Thompson also states in _Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail '72_ something to the effect that both parties select someone who will be attractive enough on the physical level to yammer on like magpies about the first thing that comes to their mind and not alienate more than 60% of the population. Well, he was a little wrong basing it on the physical attractiveness, but not by far. Trump and Hilliary are both at least TV attractive for 70 year olds. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2016, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sam-wangs-nyt-piece-polls-dont-change/770069/49 "2016-10-31T19:37:38Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > The Comey bullshit will not move the needle at all. … It is not so much what this bullshit is as what it is not. It is not Trump’s massive inadequacies being the centerpiece of the public’s attention in these final days. Again, the low energy state for this election is C+4. Keeping it up at C+6 to 7 required a constant barrage of bad storylines for Trump. It was dropping back to the baseline state before this and this is nudging it more to the other side of the range. Wang’s prediction though is likely correct. This non-story has already bored. It will unsurprising to hear of another surprise before election day. A bad one for Clinton moves it slightly closer to the +1 end and a bad one for Trump moves it closer to the +7 end. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2016, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sam-wangs-nyt-piece-polls-dont-change/770069/50 "2016-10-31T20:04:02Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > I disagree. The email thing helps Trump. Not because of the substance of the issue, but because it changes the conversation. > > ISTM that the pattern of the campaign since the general election has been that Trump drifts close or even edges ahead, and then he does or says something outrageous and/or idiotic which drags him down again. Then a brief quiet period occurs and he drifts back up a bit, followed by him going off the deep end again and dragging himself back down. Point being that if he can keep the public focus away from him and his idiocy and offensiveness, he can stay in contention. > > This is where the new revelations help him. To the extent people and media coverage are focused on Clinton’s email issues and whether or not Comey did the right thing in releasing the letter, then they are not being focused on what an obnoxious buffoon and incompetent Trump is. And that’s all for the better, for him. I agree, Trump has completely dropped his defeatist “election is rigged” message that was just going to depress his turn out. He is more energized than he has been in weeks. I mean, he is not going to win but he is no longer acting like he already lost, and that WILL close the gap. ---
**Author:** ![skdo23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@skdo23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/skdo23)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2016, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sam-wangs-nyt-piece-polls-dont-change/770069/51 "2016-10-31T20:18:13Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > I agree, Trump has completely dropped his defeatist “election is rigged” message that was just going to depress his turn out. He is more energized than he has been in weeks. I mean, he is not going to win but he is no longer acting like he already lost, and that WILL close the gap. I’m guessing he might go back to it though if Comey were to clarify what he meant in his letter in a way that makes it less of a “bombshell,” and/or new info emerges to this effect. Already, it has been determined that only a small number of the laptop emails were “pertinent” which, in the context of Comey’s letter seems to simply mean that they were sent either to or from Huma Abedin during Clinton’s tenure as SoS. [http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/fbi-working-winnow-through-emails-weiner-s-laptop-n675741](http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/fbi-working-winnow-through-emails-weiner-s-laptop-n675741) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sam-wangs-nyt-piece-polls-dont-change/770069.md?page=2)