# Sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [February 23, 2022, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sanctions-on-russia-for-invading-ukraine/960007 "2022-02-23T14:17:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 20
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2022, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sanctions-on-russia-for-invading-ukraine/960007/382 "2022-10-18T20:21:30Z")
if you want to know RU economic future, look at Venezuela today… (original) > **[Un puerto "abarrotado de chatarra": los 4 barcos oxidados que revelan el...](https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-america-latina-47985549)** > > Hace no demasiado tiempo, de Puerto La Cruz, en el este de Venezuela, salían los buques que llevaban a miles de venezolanos hacia la turística Isla Margarita. Pero todos dejaron de navegar y están olvidados y semihundidos. ¿Qué pasó? google translate: > **[Un puerto "abarrotado de chatarra": los 4 barcos oxidados que revelan el...](https://www-bbc-com.translate.goog/mundo/noticias-america-latina-47985549?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp)** > > Hace no demasiado tiempo, de Puerto La Cruz, en el este de Venezuela, salían los buques que llevaban a miles de venezolanos hacia la turística Isla Margarita. Pero todos dejaron de navegar y están olvidados y semihundidos. ¿Qué pasó? . (sorry, I cant get the google translate to work, it seems) ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2022, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sanctions-on-russia-for-invading-ukraine/960007/383 "2022-10-18T20:40:30Z")
Yes, but imagine Venezuela with 1/3 of it’s trade cut off. That’s what Russia will be like. Assuming that India and China will still trade with Russia - probably they will, at deep discount prices. ---
**Author:** ![loriloolee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/5fc32e/32.png) [@loriloolee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/loriloolee)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2022, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sanctions-on-russia-for-invading-ukraine/960007/384 "2022-10-20T01:49:21Z")
I think I can translate. Not too long ago, from the Port La Cruz, in eastern Venezuela, the ferries(?) that took thousands of Venezuelans to the touristy Isla Margarita. But the ferries stopped navigating and are forgotten and half sunk. What happened? ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2022, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sanctions-on-russia-for-invading-ukraine/960007/385 "2022-10-21T17:19:39Z")
> [@loriloolee](#): > > Not too long ago, from the Port La Cruz, in eastern Venezuela, the ferries(?) that took thousands of Venezuelans to the touristy Isla Margarita. But the ferries stopped navigating and are forgotten and half sunk. What happened? . straight out of the comunist playbook: the private company that run those, was expropiated … and the ferries started to be run by competent people of Chavez’ comunist state. which lasted for about 2-3 years b/c the first item that the regime “redirected” was the maintainance budget … … that is pretty much the link to russia - as their (flying and non-flying) assets seem to be following the same book. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [November 28, 2022, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sanctions-on-russia-for-invading-ukraine/960007/386 "2022-11-28T00:18:39Z")
WaPo article indicates that sanctions are starting to bite: > **[Western sanctions catch up with Russia’s wartime economy](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/11/26/russia-war-economy-military-supply/)** > > The establishment of a new council to coordinate military supplies reflects the Kremlin's grave concerns over the economy. ---
**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2022, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sanctions-on-russia-for-invading-ukraine/960007/387 "2022-12-28T16:29:36Z")
Paywalled. Let me ask this - does the article identify many specific ways that their economy is suffering? ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2022, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sanctions-on-russia-for-invading-ukraine/960007/388 "2022-12-28T18:09:32Z")
> [@Cardigan](#): > > Let me ask this - does the article identify many specific ways that their economy is suffering? Non-oil and gas revenue down 20% year-to-year in October, Russian retail sales down 10%, cargo turnover down 7%. Gas production down 20%, oil sales “plummeting” (so they don’t have a number, only a sense of decline). Russia claims GDP has only dropped 3.5%, but analysts point out that is now a meaningless figure since rubles can no longer be converted rendering notions of its value uncertain. The Russian Central Bank is warning of heavier GDP declines next quarter and more and more hard currency is being pulled from the banking system. ---
**Author:** ![Bootb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e19b73/32.png) [@Bootb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bootb)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2022, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sanctions-on-russia-for-invading-ukraine/960007/389 "2022-12-29T00:53:06Z")
Does Russia mine all their coal, or do they import some? [Russians Face Freezing to Death As They Run Out of Fuel To Heat Homes (msn.com)](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russians-face-freezing-to-death-as-they-run-out-of-fuel-to-heat-homes/ar-AA15K5EK) ---
**Author:** ![Chad\_Sudan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chad_sudan/32/4509_2.png) [@Chad\_Sudan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chad_Sudan)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2023, 11:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sanctions-on-russia-for-invading-ukraine/960007/390 "2023-01-20T11:00:06Z")
A Swiss study reports that [“fewer than 9% of western firms have divested from Russia since it launched its invasion of Ukraine.”](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jan/20/russia-ukraine-war-live-zelenskiy-expecting-strong-decisions-as-kyivs-allies-meet-in-germany?page=with:block-63ca71258f0835c8bc1c7cae#block-63ca71258f0835c8bc1c7cae) [?!] ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2023, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sanctions-on-russia-for-invading-ukraine/960007/391 "2023-02-02T22:41:32Z")
I hope all you guys are ready for the world food crisis we’re going to face over the next two or three years. ---
**Author:** ![WellHelloThere](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/9dc877/32.png) [@WellHelloThere](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WellHelloThere)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2023, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sanctions-on-russia-for-invading-ukraine/960007/392 "2023-02-02T23:55:01Z")
Are you suggesting that there might be a negative aspect to prolonging a war in one of the worlds most productive farming regions? ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2023, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sanctions-on-russia-for-invading-ukraine/960007/393 "2023-02-03T01:45:00Z")
Oh hell, that’s just the FIRST problem. ---
**Author:** ![WellHelloThere](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/9dc877/32.png) [@WellHelloThere](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WellHelloThere)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2023, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sanctions-on-russia-for-invading-ukraine/960007/394 "2023-02-03T02:04:13Z")
It does seem that the Russian leadership is willing to sacrifice anything to win this war. At this point, their lives are on the line and failure is not an option. Sanctions will not disuade Putin, and may even draw more domestic support. There is nothing to cheer about here ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2023, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sanctions-on-russia-for-invading-ukraine/960007/395 "2023-02-03T15:04:56Z")
Russia as it currently exists is probably doomed. They cannot win this war through conventional means; their chance was last March and it’s gone. The country is in terrible shape economically, has no real allies, and is sitting on a demographic time bomb. The problem is they’re gonna take a lot of innocent people with them. I am not joking about the food problems the world is going to face. It’s not just Russian and Ukranian food exports, though the lack of that will kill millions; it’s also their exports of basic precursors to farming, like potash. Russia and Belarus are the world’s second and third largest potash exporters. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2023, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sanctions-on-russia-for-invading-ukraine/960007/396 "2023-02-03T15:07:23Z")
Are there any models or predictions about the likely global impact of these agricultural disruptions? ---
**Author:** ![filmstar-en](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/50afbb/32.png) [@filmstar-en](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmstar-en)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2023, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sanctions-on-russia-for-invading-ukraine/960007/397 "2023-02-04T17:49:52Z")
There are some reports from earlier in the conflict. There are many poor and middle income countries that are dependent on Russia and the Ukraine grain and edible oils that are facing a food cost crisis. The disruption of fertilizer supplies will also increase food costs around the world. > **[How is the war in Ukraine affecting global food prices? - Economics Observatory](https://www.economicsobservatory.com/how-is-the-war-in-ukraine-affecting-global-food-prices)** > > Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is raising food prices across the world. Developing and emerging economies are being hit hardest due to their reliance on the region for fuel and grain imports. Price hikes in these countries could spur further political... ---
**Author:** ![WellHelloThere](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/9dc877/32.png) [@WellHelloThere](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WellHelloThere)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2023, 4:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sanctions-on-russia-for-invading-ukraine/960007/398 "2023-02-05T04:14:13Z")
How will that be addressed in the short term? You seem to be aware of the issue; what areas will be providing potash or substitutes, if there are any? ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2023, 4:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sanctions-on-russia-for-invading-ukraine/960007/399 "2023-02-05T04:30:34Z")
Saskatchewan is the single biggest producer of potash in the world. I wouldn’t be surprised if Nutrien and the others are ramping up production. > **[Top 10 Potash Countries by Production](https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/agriculture-investing/potash-investing/top-potash-countries-by-production/)** > > The top potash countries by production rode out the COVID-19 storm that devastated many commodities markets in 2020, and robust demand pushed prices to a 13 year record high in the second half of 2021.Those same supply and demand dynamics have... ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2023, 4:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sanctions-on-russia-for-invading-ukraine/960007/400 "2023-02-05T04:46:51Z")
Saskatchewan has absolutely massive potash production (typically about 30% of global production), and over the past few decades a lot of that production capacity has been idling as prices have been on the low side. Those mines have all been hiring like mad over the past year, and there’s actually a huge new one just coming online - BHP’s Jansen mine stage one is expected to have a capacity of 4.3 million tonnes/yr, which is something like 5% of global production capacity by itself. I don’t think we can make up for the entirety of Russian and Belarusian production, but we can cover a significant portion of the shortfall if all our players turn on all their available production. And since China and India are two of the largest importers and will probably happily buy discounted Russian/Belarusian potash, I would expect that potash prices will be very high but not ludicrous while sanctions remain in place. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2023, 4:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sanctions-on-russia-for-invading-ukraine/960007/401 "2023-02-05T04:49:30Z")
In googling about for statistics, I saw a Nutrien press release from mid-last year saying they’re ramping up production by 40% to 18 million tonnes/year by 2025. That’s without opening any new mines. I’m sure K+S is doing likewise, but I don’t think they had anywhere near as much idle capacity as Nutrien. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sanctions-on-russia-for-invading-ukraine/960007.md?page=19) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sanctions-on-russia-for-invading-ukraine/960007.md?page=21)