# Sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [February 23, 2022, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sanctions-on-russia-for-invading-ukraine/960007 "2022-02-23T14:17:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 6\ **Page:** 21
**Author:** ![WellHelloThere](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/9dc877/32.png) [@WellHelloThere](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WellHelloThere)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2023, 4:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sanctions-on-russia-for-invading-ukraine/960007/402 "2023-02-05T04:51:30Z")
But, as Rickjay has stated, this will cause a massive despruption in the global food supply. Is this correct? ---
**Author:** ![WellHelloThere](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/9dc877/32.png) [@WellHelloThere](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WellHelloThere)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2023, 4:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sanctions-on-russia-for-invading-ukraine/960007/403 "2023-02-05T04:57:12Z")
Disruption\* i never will get the hang of this board. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2023, 5:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sanctions-on-russia-for-invading-ukraine/960007/404 "2023-02-05T05:02:29Z")
I am not an expert. I’m just a guy who lives within an hour’s drive of various mines producing about a quarter of all potash produced in the world. Based on the numbers here: [https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/our-natural-resources/minerals-mining/minerals-metals-facts/potash-facts/20521](https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/our-natural-resources/minerals-mining/minerals-metals-facts/potash-facts/20521) In 2021, Canada exported 21M of the 57M tonnes of potash that was traded internationally. Belarus and Russia combined for a further 23M tonnes. Everyone else is a bit player. From what I’ve read, Saskatchewan can probably have an additional 10M tonnes/year running within a year or two, and will already be significantly above where it was in 2021. Combine that with China and India who between them imported 8M tonnes/yr as of 2019 continuing to buy from Russia and Belarus, and the global numbers are strained but pretty close to even. Fertilizer prices are going to be high, no doubt. Probably not catastrophically so. Probably the decreased agricultural output of Ukraine will be as disruptive as the potash situation. Don’t get me wrong. None of this is at all good for areas with food insecurity. ---
**Author:** ![WellHelloThere](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/9dc877/32.png) [@WellHelloThere](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WellHelloThere)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2023, 5:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sanctions-on-russia-for-invading-ukraine/960007/405 "2023-02-05T05:08:33Z")
Thanks Gorsnak. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2023, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sanctions-on-russia-for-invading-ukraine/960007/406 "2023-02-05T13:26:53Z")
sounds like your prototypical “imploding cobweb” scenario that we are going to see over the next few years: [![](https://assignmentpoint.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Cobweb-Model.jpg) ](https://assignmentpoint.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Cobweb-Model.jpg) ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2023, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sanctions-on-russia-for-invading-ukraine/960007/407 "2023-02-05T23:06:06Z")
> [@WellHelloThere](#): > > How will that be addressed in the short term? You seem to be aware of the issue; what areas will be providing potash or substitutes, if there are any? As noted, Canada is a source of more potash, but ramping up mining capacity is NOT something you do quickly. This is a country that already struggles to meet existing manufacturing demand in a lot of sectors due to the lack of industrial labor. Some of the deficit can be made up this year but not all of it. Russia is also one of the world’s major ammonia producers, another fertilizer precursor. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sanctions-on-russia-for-invading-ukraine/960007.md?page=20)