# Saudi Arabia on the verge of Revolution? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 30, 2004, 12:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-on-the-verge-of-revolution/247781 "2004-05-30T12:27:52Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![New\_Iskander](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/db5fbb/32.png) [@New\_Iskander](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/New_Iskander)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2004, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-on-the-verge-of-revolution/247781/81 "2004-06-04T18:53:27Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > …once we have gotten rid of most ME oil, give the Saudis an ultimatum: accept a transition to a democratic government. Ease the house of Daud outof power, and transition the country to some kind of representative government. I like your radical proposal very much. However, why House of Saud has to go? How about a gradual change to constitutional monarchy, with Royal family becoming exclusively ceremonial? ---
**Author:** ![Olentzero](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/90ced4/32.png) [@Olentzero](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Olentzero)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2004, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-on-the-verge-of-revolution/247781/82 "2004-06-04T18:59:48Z")
> [@New Iskander](#): > > For example, I support US implementing “radical change” in Iraq, because there is a possibility of new Iraq receiving and establishing our proven and workable principe of constitutional legality, which they can certainly benefit from. Last I remember, the principles of constitutional legality weren’t forced on the United States by an occupying country. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2004, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-on-the-verge-of-revolution/247781/83 "2004-06-04T21:37:06Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > I think the only solution to the problem is to: > (1) Immediately begin a program of nuclear power plant construction. Within 20 years, we should be able to eliminat all oil imports (as require for electricity hgeneration) > (2) Provide tax credits toinduce people to scrap all vehicles getting less than 30 MPG-and replace them with Toyota=Prius-type vehicles. > (3) Open up Alaska, the Sana Barbara Channel for oil well drilling, and accelerate off shore leasing in the Gulf of Mexico. > (4) Sign long-term contracts with Russia, for oil deliveries and exploration of Siberia. > Then, once we have gotten rid of most ME oil, give the Saudis an ultimatum: accept a transition to a democratic government. Ease the house of Daud outof power, and transition the country to some kind of representative government. The alternative (and islamic revolution) issomething that we do not want to have happen. If we do the first four things, **ralph,** and if they effectively eliminate our dependence on Middle Eastern oil, then we will not need to give the Saudis any kind of ultimatum; we will have the luxury of minding our own business and allowing the Saudis to go to Hell, or to Heaven, in their own way. ---
**Author:** ![Johanna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johanna/32/8318_2.png) [@Johanna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johanna)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2004, 5:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-on-the-verge-of-revolution/247781/84 "2004-06-05T05:29:25Z")
I doubt the Saudi regime will be able to hang on much longer. Give them five years or so. But it isn’t so easy to predict what will follow them. My prediction is massive turmoil. Why assume that any one group will succeed in taking over the entire country? It’s a big country and was assembled from pieces. The military in a normal country is usually able to make a coup d’état and take over a whole country at once, but the Saudi military is useless, as well as being divided. I can’t see a Saudi military coup. They don’t have it in them. What I foresee instead is a breakup, with various groups struggling for power. The Shi‘ah in the Eastern Province have the incentive to fight for their interests, and we can expect them to be backed by Iran. Meanwhile al-Qa‘idah will be making their move. They have been turning off Saudis lately, who might have been sympathetic to them earlier, with terror attacks against Arabs inside Saudi Arabia. If they tried to seize power over all the country, I doubt they would be successful all over, though they could probably seize limited areas temporarily. It’s hard to predict how such a chaotic situation would ultimately wind up. This is based on a talk I had today with one of the top American experts on the Arab world. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2004, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-on-the-verge-of-revolution/247781/85 "2004-06-05T21:11:35Z")
> [@Jomo Mojo](#): > > I doubt the Saudi regime will be able to hang on much longer. Give them five years or so. But it isn’t so easy to predict what will follow them. My prediction is massive turmoil. > > Why assume that any one group will succeed in taking over the entire country? It’s a big country and was assembled from pieces. The military in a normal country is usually able to make a coup d’état and take over a whole country at once, but the Saudi military is useless, as well as being divided. I can’t see a Saudi military coup. They don’t have it in them. What I foresee instead is a breakup, with various groups struggling for power. > > The Shi‘ah in the Eastern Province have the incentive to fight for their interests, and we can expect them to be backed by Iran. Meanwhile al-Qa‘idah will be making their move. They have been turning off Saudis lately, who might have been sympathetic to them earlier, with terror attacks against Arabs inside Saudi Arabia. If they tried to seize power over all the country, I doubt they would be successful all over, though they could probably seize limited areas temporarily. It’s hard to predict how such a chaotic situation would ultimately wind up. This is based on a talk I had today with one of the top American experts on the Arab world. So, what role would the foreigners play in all this? According to the Encarta, **23 percent** of SA’s population is made up of foreign nationals. That’s a higher proportion than . . . well, any country I can think of. Which means their presence is politically significant in the event of any regime change – but significant how? If the monarchy falls, will the foreigners side with one insurgent faction or the other? Or will all the natives close ranks to drive the foreigners out of the country? Come to think of it, how foreign are these foreigners anyway? I think practically all of them are Muslims and most of them come from Arabic-speaking countries, but those are details the Encarta doesn’t cover. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2004, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-on-the-verge-of-revolution/247781/86 "2004-06-05T22:16:10Z")
Sorry, I didn’t read the article closely enough. Here’s what the Encarta says: > [@](#): > > The Arabian Peninsula is the heartland of the Arab people and the Arabic language. The vast majority of Saudi residents are Arabs, and many claim descent from ancient Bedouin tribes native to the peninsula. However, there is some regional diversity. For centuries, the hajj has attracted Muslims from around the world to western Arabia. Those who settled permanently and intermarried with the local population have given rise to a diverse Muslim population in Al Ḩijāz. Some Saudi communities have African roots, a legacy of the days when slave trading was permitted in the region. **The large foreign-born population of the kingdom consists mainly of Arabs from countries such as Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. In addition, many people from India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and the Philippines live and work in Saudi Arabia.** > > Arabic is the official language of Saudi Arabia and is used by most of the native population. English is an important second language, used in government, commerce, the media, and among the non-Arab expatriate community. > > © 1993-2003 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved. So, does this mean the foreigners will be easily assimilated into SA society? Since they’re mostly Arabs to begin with? ---
**Author:** ![Johanna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johanna/32/8318_2.png) [@Johanna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johanna)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2004, 10:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-on-the-verge-of-revolution/247781/87 "2004-06-07T10:06:30Z")
When I was in Jiddah and other parts of Saudi Arabia, I observed Urdu was used as a second language even more than English in some parts. Whole neighborhoods of Jiddah are Urdu-speaking (Indian and Pakistani _gastarbeiter_). Pidgin Urdu is used as a contact vernacular among the many different foreigners in Saudi Arabia as much as pidgin Arabic. That’s a good question about the role of foreigners if it all fell apart. Saudi society is still heavily tribal. The tribalism is less pronounced in Hijaz than in the other regions: in Najd and ‘Asir, the native Saudi population is still totally tribal. It was tribes of Najd who originally made the Saudi state, and the tribes of ‘Asir are related to the tribes of Yemen. Meanwhile, tribalism in Hijaz is diluted to some extent because so many immigrants have moved there over the course of many cneturies. The Eastern Province where all the oil is has the Shi‘ites and lots of _gastarbeiter_. The Arabs from other countries may play a limited role in future political developments, but very limited by lack of tribal affiliation, unless some from Kuwait are tribally related to some Saudi tribes. The Indians and Pakistanis who make up perhaps the biggest group of _gastarbeiter_ will have nothing to contribute either way. Even if some are kicked out as a result of turmoil, probably most of them would be kept on anyway to perform the skilled and unskilled labor needed to keep the economy going. To predict what will happen to Saudi Arabia, remember the country has been cobbled together from 4 different regions, each with its own history and interests: Najd, Hijaz, the Eastern Province, and ‘Asir. The fall of the regime is likely to fall out different ways in each of these places. It could wind up as four separate countries in the absence of some uniting factor, because the only thing that makes them one country now is the Al Sa‘ud family that conquered them all between 1902 and 1934. ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2004, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-on-the-verge-of-revolution/247781/88 "2004-06-07T15:23:40Z")
This is a fascinating thread, thank you to all the participants. I’m looking for opinions on what this might do to the country, positive and negative: > [@](#): > > [Saudi Arabia lifts ban on women working to boost economy after attacks](http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20040606/bs_afp/saudi_attacks_economy_040606160012) > > RIYADH (AFP) - Saudi Arabia has lifted a ban that kept women from jobs in most fields in what analysts see as a way of fighting extremism and boosting the economy in the wake of the deadly terror attacks in the kingdom. > > The Saudi cabinet, chaired by King Fahd, last week took a landmark decision allowing women to obtain commercial licences. > > Previously women could only open a business in the name of male relative, and religious and social restrictions excluded them from all but a few professions such as teaching and nursing. > > “This decision will certainly reduce social and economic pressures on men, who are no longer capable of meeting family needs due to a drop in personal income,” said Nahed Taher, a senior economist at National Commercial Bank. > > She told AFP that creating employment had become a way of fighting homegrown terrorism. > > “It also has an important security aspect in fighting terrorists in the kingdom, as the solution to this problem is no longer of a purely security nature.” > > Taher said 55 percent of university graduates in the oil-rich kingdom are females, but the overwhelming majority stayed at home because of the ban and a general lack of job opportunities. > > According to official figures, only 5.5 percent out of some 4.7 million Saudi women of working age are employed. > > The cabinet also ordered government ministries and bodies to create jobs for women, and asked the Chambers of Commerce and Industry to form a committee for women to help train and find jobs for them in the private sector. > > It also decided that land will be allocated for the establishment of industrial projects to employ women, and said in future all positions in shops selling women’s clothes and accessories would be reserved for Saudi women. > > The head of the Jeddah-based Middle East Center for Strategic and Legal Studies, Anwar Eshki, said the steps highlight the role the economy can play in fighting extremism. > > “The cost of living has gone up and women must share the burden with their husbands. If this is not done, it will negatively affect the security situation. It will only breed further complications,” Eshki said. > > “We cannot separate terrorism from the economy … The security solution is essential, but it is not the decisive one. The cabinet’s decision is a response to this understanding,” he told AFP. > > The kingdom, the world’s largest oil producer and exporter, has in the past year been jolted by a string of terrorist attacks which killed more than 85 people and have been blamed on Islamist extremists sympathetic to the Al-Qaeda network. > > Two attacks last month on the petrochemical and oil centers of Yanbu and Al-Khobar raised concern in international markets, pushing crude prices to record highs early last week. > > The unemployment rate in Saudi Arabia is estimated at more than 20 percent, though officials insist it is below 10 percent. > > Women outnumber men in Saudi universities because they seldom study abroad and unlike men they normally only look for jobs after graduating from university. > > Taher said the government’s decision will remarkably improve the income of many Saudi families, but added she feared it may remain “ink on paper.” > > Liberals in Saudi Arabia hope to ease a range of restrictions on women that make them dependent on male relatives. > > Women here have be covered from head to toe in public and cannot mix with men other than relatives. They are also not allowed to drive or travel alone. > > Riyadh began issuing separate civil identity cards for Saudi women in late 2001 but the documents can only be issued with the approval of a male guardians such as a husband or father. > > The government has in recent months been seeking to boost women’s role in society but faces opposition from the powerful religious establishment. > > It promised that the third round of a national dialogue, launched in the kingdom a year ago to debate crucial issues, in mid-June will be entirely devoted to discussing “women’s rights and duties.” Any insight to how this came about, and why now? It’s obviously a good thing for the women, but will it inflame the extremists even more? What impact will this have? Could this be permanent or just a temporary sop? If I were a woman in Saudi Arabia, I’m not sure I would celebrate just yet. Welcome to the “20th” Century SA. I think. ---
**Author:** ![Olentzero](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/90ced4/32.png) [@Olentzero](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Olentzero)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2004, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-on-the-verge-of-revolution/247781/89 "2004-06-07T15:49:49Z")
I get the distinct impression this is being done _for_ women, not _by_ them. ---
**Author:** ![New\_Iskander](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/db5fbb/32.png) [@New\_Iskander](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/New_Iskander)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2004, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-on-the-verge-of-revolution/247781/90 "2004-06-07T16:31:20Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > So, does this mean the foreigners will be easily assimilated into SA society? Since they’re mostly Arabs to begin with? Arabs fight Arabs all the time, so Civil war between different tribes would be extremely likely result of a revolution in SA, imo. Anybody has any good info about SA Council of Ministers? ---
**Author:** ![eenerms](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/cdc98d/32.png) [@eenerms](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eenerms)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2004, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-on-the-verge-of-revolution/247781/91 "2004-06-07T19:31:48Z")
I think that this will increase the amount of unrest. When there was a Economic Forum in Jeddah, there were Saudi Women "Covered’ but unveiled on the stage with men. One of the top Imans said that he women were evil for appearing with men. While Saudi Women in Jeddah are a strong economic force, they are not allowed to participate without a male to do be the front man as it were. I don’t have a cite, it happened when I lived there and it was in the **Arab News** late last year. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-on-the-verge-of-revolution/247781.md?page=4)