# Saudi Arabia severs ties with Iran - what does it mean? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 3, 2016, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-severs-ties-with-iran-what-does-it-mean/742105 "2016-01-03T21:57:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2016, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-severs-ties-with-iran-what-does-it-mean/742105/21 "2016-01-04T03:18:48Z")
“Just mine the straits of Hormuz”? That’s like saying in case of some disagreements in Europe, the Russians will just nuke Berlin… something that is not going to happen at all without heavy repercussions. Never mind extra-regional actors, its going to piss off Iran’s neighbours like Pakistan, India. [QUOTE=silensus] Yeah, no. Since nobody in the region ahs nukes except Israel, it’s unlikely this will escalate to that extent. But what might happen is some serious skirmishing. OPEC is really pissed that the Saudis have been pumping so much oil, and they have little support in the region. If the US would grow a pair and realize that the Saudis ARE NOT ON OUR SIDE, it would help. [/QUOTE] Firstly, Israel is on the Med; not on the Persian Gulf, where this fight is occuring, so irrelevant. (The only local power there with nukes is Pakistan). Secondly, whats with the playground butthurt? Nation states are never on anyone’s side, except their own; they have interests not friends. For some reason many posters seem to be unable to grasp this fact. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2016, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-severs-ties-with-iran-what-does-it-mean/742105/22 "2016-01-04T03:44:12Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > “Just mine the straits of Hormuz”? That’s like saying in case of some disagreements in Europe, the Russians will just nuke Berlin… something that is not going to happen at all without heavy repercussions. Never mind extra-regional actors, its going to piss off Iran’s neighbours like Pakistan, India. I’m aware of the seriousness of doing that, but its vastly more likely to happen in the first few weeks of an open conflict with saudi arabia than a land invasion. ---
**Author:** ![Declan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecae2f/32.png) [@Declan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Declan)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2016, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-severs-ties-with-iran-what-does-it-mean/742105/23 "2016-01-04T03:55:13Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Firstly, Israel is on the Med; not on the Persian Gulf, where this fight is occuring, so irrelevant. Israel and Saud fly the same equipment, in exchange for picking some of the strike packages into Iran, and end Iran’s nuclear ambitions once and for all, I would say that you can’t rule Israel out, even if its loaning out pilots and munitions, and perhaps fire support from Israeli submarine cruise missiles. Declan ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2016, 5:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-severs-ties-with-iran-what-does-it-mean/742105/24 "2016-01-04T05:18:45Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > How can you astro turf an Arab Spring in a non-Arab country? This is a kerfuffle about the execution of a Shiite Cleric in Saudi Arabia. It will pass. And WW I was about some nobility getting knocked off. The roots of this go considerably deeper than the execution of one cleric. But I agree it will pass. ---
**Author:** ![lalaith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/96bed5/32.png) [@lalaith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lalaith)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2016, 5:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-severs-ties-with-iran-what-does-it-mean/742105/25 "2016-01-04T05:22:04Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > OPEC is pissed about Saudi Arabia, the Saudis are trying to push shale oil drillers out of business. Can they? Sure, eventually. But it’s going to take a lot longer than the Saudis hoped. With their huge currency reserves, and the fact that they still make a profit at $40/barrel oil means they have the ability to keep pumping for as long as it takes to wipe the shale drillers out. However, it _will_ be painful for them, a lot of their budget projections and various largesses were based on the forecast of long term \> $100 barrel oil. > > But Venezuela, Iran and several other OPEC members _cannot_ keep going on as they have been without disastrous consequences. $40-45 / barrel oil is actually below the cost of production for Iran and Venezuela, and for several other OPEC members, and no other OPEC member had the sort of massive currency reserves built up that Saudi Arabia did to weather this storm. I’m not sure where you’re getting those numbers from. But I know I saw \*these \*numbers on CNN and they got the numbers from the IMF. [How Long Can the Middle East Survive Cheap Oil?](http://money.cnn.com/2015/10/25/investing/oil-prices-saudi-arabia-cash-opec-middle-east/index.html?sr=twcnnbrk102515oilpricessaudiarabiacashopecmiddleeast512pStoryMoneyPhoto) By country, break-even oil prices: $107 - Bahrain $106 - Saudi Arabia $81 - Iraq $73 - UAE $72 - Iran $56 - Qatar $49 - Kuwait ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2016, 5:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-severs-ties-with-iran-what-does-it-mean/742105/26 "2016-01-04T05:41:11Z")
Lailaith: From your source “Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producer, needs to sell oil at around $106 to balance its budget, according to IMF estimates.” This is not the cost of production. In other words out of $106/barrel it may cost them $36/barrel to produce the oil and they spend $70/barrel profit on general government expenditures. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2016, 6:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-severs-ties-with-iran-what-does-it-mean/742105/27 "2016-01-04T06:23:59Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > Lailaith: From your source “Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producer, needs to sell oil at around $106 to balance its budget, according to IMF estimates.” This is not the cost of production. In other words out of $106/barrel it may cost them $36/barrel to produce the oil and they spend $70/barrel profit on general government expenditures. Saudi Arabia has some of the lowest extraction costs in the world. Much, much lower than Iran. In fact, lower oil prices is a weapon in SA arsenal against Iran. ---
**Author:** ![Blackstock](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/c77e96/32.png) [@Blackstock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blackstock)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2016, 8:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-severs-ties-with-iran-what-does-it-mean/742105/28 "2016-01-04T08:22:17Z")
Both countries are already knee-deep in proxy wars in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, and such places are where all frustration and disagreement (sectarian, political or otherwise) are put into effect on the battleground. The gravity of executing a top Shia cleric in Saudi Arabia is in that it was more a straightforward move than characteristic to the long-term conflict between the two nations. The animosity goes back a long way, and it’s surprising that they had until yesterday maintained any diplomatic ties to begin with. There has always been a war of words, and accusations by Iran that Saudi finances terrorism in Iraq, Syria and Yemen just as Saudi accuses Iran of the same. And they’re both right, too. I don’t see this row going anywhere or causing an alarming deterioration into a direct armed conflict, since there are active battlegrounds where this matter can be settled. I don’t see a possibility of an all-out war between the two countries. Absolutely not. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2016, 8:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-severs-ties-with-iran-what-does-it-mean/742105/29 "2016-01-04T08:47:46Z")
The current Saudi leadership is probably the stupidest in its history. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2016, 11:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-severs-ties-with-iran-what-does-it-mean/742105/30 "2016-01-04T11:06:41Z")
What will the severing of diplomatic ties mean for Iranians going on _Hajj_? Will they revert to the boycott of '88-'90 (the last time they severed diplomatic ties, IIRC) ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2016, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-severs-ties-with-iran-what-does-it-mean/742105/31 "2016-01-04T13:42:50Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > As it is, this example and the execution of the cleric shows that the House of Saud is officially losing its collective mind. No it shows they are in a very difficult situation, with the strategy of the oil pricing forcing them to cut the domestic subsidies. as in > [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > With their huge currency reserves, and the fact that they still make a profit at $40/barrel oil means they have the ability to keep pumping for as long as it takes to wipe the shale drillers out. However, it _will_ be painful for them, a lot of their budget projections and various largesses were based on the forecast of long term \> $100 barrel oil. The reserves of the Saud are not so large against their spending that this is a forever strategy and already cuts to the domestic spending and subsidies, like the petrol subsidy are announced. These things are unpopular. to it you add they have tried to crack down on the DAESH networks, which their devils bargain with the Wahhabite movement makes difficult. For a domestic strategy to distract the population from the combined crackdown and the reduction in the advantages to the national population, with Sunni supramacism and anti Shiasm as their version of nationalist fervor, the execution and provocations to the Iran make fine logic. But it is funny how westerners write ‘tamper’ about the Saudis making decisions on production with their own Saudi oil… > [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > Saudi Arabia may then start to tamper with production again to try to get the price back to where it wants it (around $100 barrel.) > [@Declan](#): > > I am using Arab Spring generically, otherwise ,I would imagine revolution would work just as well if your concerned about the label. It is a strange generic, I guess it means “muslims and people I know nothing about doing political things I do not understand.” If the term had any meaning, it meant popular uprising against the aged dictatorial regimes. The idea of some outsider of another religious tendency ‘sponsoring’ does not fit in any way (besides being laughably ridiculous as a idea. > [@Declan](#): > > I’d expect Jordan to heavily lean towards Israel, and Egypt being a proxy fight between Iran and Saud. This makes literally no sense at all. The Jordan has no love for the Israelis and not any real thing to do with a Saudi-Iranian conflict in any case. And the Egypt, they have no love for Iran, there is no ‘proxying’ - the very idea shows gross and basic ignorance of the region and the even existing alliances and tendencies. but in keeping with the misuse of the arab spring term. But from this following it can be guessed it is an understanding taken from the video games fantasies, as of course no rational Saudi government could ally with the Israelis and stand, and the idea of only some airstrikes ending the Iranian program is silly > [@Declan](#): > > Israel and Saud fly the same equipment, in exchange for picking some of the strike packages into Iran, and end Iran’s nuclear ambitions once and for all, I would say that you can’t rule Israel out, even if its loaning out pilots and munitions, and perhaps fire support from Israeli submarine cruise missiles. > > Declan ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2016, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-severs-ties-with-iran-what-does-it-mean/742105/32 "2016-01-04T14:56:46Z")
This may end up in another forum, but I am hoping for some factual information, so I’m trying here. I gather that the Saudi’s executed a popular Shiite cleric, leading to a rift with Iran. But 1. What was the cleric convicted of? 2. Are there factual questions regarding his conviction, or is it a question of perception? 3. What about him makes the Iranians care so much? ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2016, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-severs-ties-with-iran-what-does-it-mean/742105/33 "2016-01-04T15:00:09Z")
They can’t agree on who the successors to Mohammed are. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2016, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-severs-ties-with-iran-what-does-it-mean/742105/34 "2016-01-04T15:06:23Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > This may end up in another forum, but I am hoping for some factual information, so I’m trying here. > > I gather that the Saudi’s executed a popular Shiite cleric, leading to a rift with Iran. But > > 1. What was the cleric convicted of? > 2. Are there factual questions regarding his conviction, or is it a question of perception? > 3. What about him makes the Iranians care so much? **Moderating** Given that there is an existing thread on the same general issue in Great Debates, I have merged this OP from GQ with it. Colibri General Questions Moderator ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2016, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-severs-ties-with-iran-what-does-it-mean/742105/35 "2016-01-04T15:09:12Z")
Sunni Saudis vs. Shiite Iranians. ---
**Author:** ![Declan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecae2f/32.png) [@Declan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Declan)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2016, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-severs-ties-with-iran-what-does-it-mean/742105/36 "2016-01-04T15:12:16Z")
WOW Ramira, thank you for that excellent foreign affairs brief. Im sure you would be a perfect fit in a Trudeau govt. Declan ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2016, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-severs-ties-with-iran-what-does-it-mean/742105/37 "2016-01-04T15:19:49Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > This may end up in another forum, but I am hoping for some factual information to give you facts and not extremely ignorant nonsense > [@](#): > > 1. What was the cleric convicted of? The [UK FT](https://next.ft.com/content/2c467fb6-b227-11e5-8358-9a82b43f6b2f) > [@](#): > > He was convicted and sentenced to death in 2014 for “disobeying the ruler, inciting sectarian strife” and “encouraging, leading and participating in demonstrations,” after what Amnesty International called a deeply flawed trial. > [@](#): > > 1. Are there factual questions regarding his conviction, or is it a question of perception? See Amnesty… > [@](#): > > 1. What about him makes the Iranians care so much? he was a defender of the shia of the Saudi Arabia who are of the same sect as the Iran. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2016, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-severs-ties-with-iran-what-does-it-mean/742105/38 "2016-01-04T15:24:25Z")
Also, his name was Nimr a-Nimr, which, if my high school Arabic hasn’t rusted completely, translates as “Tiger the Tiger”. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2016, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-severs-ties-with-iran-what-does-it-mean/742105/39 "2016-01-04T15:24:45Z")
In English we don’t put “the” in front of a country’s name. ---
**Author:** ![Blackstock](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/c77e96/32.png) [@Blackstock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blackstock)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2016, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-severs-ties-with-iran-what-does-it-mean/742105/40 "2016-01-04T15:29:26Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > In English we don’t put “the” in front of a country’s name. Except in the cases of Ukraine and Yemen. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-severs-ties-with-iran-what-does-it-mean/742105.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/saudi-arabia-severs-ties-with-iran-what-does-it-mean/742105.md?page=3)