# Say Iran develops nukes. How do we make good on our threats of that not being allowed to stand? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 11, 2013, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/say-iran-develops-nukes-how-do-we-make-good-on-our-threats-of-that-not-being-allowed-to-stand/652591 "2013-03-11T00:48:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![astro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9dc877/32.png) [@astro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astro)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2013, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/say-iran-develops-nukes-how-do-we-make-good-on-our-threats-of-that-not-being-allowed-to-stand/652591/1 "2013-03-11T00:48:36Z")
Listening to CSPAN the other day and some fairly elevated US General in charge of a lot of acronyms was going on before a congressional committee about how long term negotiations with Iran were not very fruitful and that Iran must not be allowed to be a state with nuclear weapons. How that just can’t happen. It cannot stand. So… let’s say sometime in 2013 or 2014 Iran announces they have a bomb. A deliverable small nuke ready to roll. They have defied our will. What real world consequence will likely happen at that time? Does the sabre rattling stop and the sabre actually get pulled out and we go to war with Iran? Or do we accept that as the new reality and negotiate with them? Will Israel take unilateral action if we do not back them up? ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2013, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/say-iran-develops-nukes-how-do-we-make-good-on-our-threats-of-that-not-being-allowed-to-stand/652591/2 "2013-03-11T00:52:59Z")
We back down. The fact is, we do treat nuclear armed countries much better than non-nuclear armed countries. We start actually, seriously negotiating with them instead of just rattling sabers. ---
**Author:** ![Oakminster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/77aa72/32.png) [@Oakminster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oakminster)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2013, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/say-iran-develops-nukes-how-do-we-make-good-on-our-threats-of-that-not-being-allowed-to-stand/652591/3 "2013-03-11T00:54:07Z")
If they manage to actually build one or more, it’s a game changer…but we aren’t going to invade a nuclear armed country. More likely scenario is a pre-emptive strike by the U.S., NATO, Israel, or Israel flying jets with U.S. markings, or some combination of those parties when the consensus of the intelligence community is that Iran is close to building a bomb. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2013, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/say-iran-develops-nukes-how-do-we-make-good-on-our-threats-of-that-not-being-allowed-to-stand/652591/4 "2013-03-11T00:55:51Z")
We have Hans Blix send them a very, very nasty letter telling them to knock it off. Seriously, what have we ever done to any nation that got nukes when we didn’t want them to? Nothing along the lines of military action. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2013, 12:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/say-iran-develops-nukes-how-do-we-make-good-on-our-threats-of-that-not-being-allowed-to-stand/652591/5 "2013-03-11T00:58:41Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > We back down. The fact is, we do treat nuclear armed countries much better than non-nuclear armed countries. We start actually, seriously negotiating with them instead of just rattling sabers. In what ways do we treat NK better than Iran? ---
**Author:** ![DataX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@DataX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DataX)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2013, 1:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/say-iran-develops-nukes-how-do-we-make-good-on-our-threats-of-that-not-being-allowed-to-stand/652591/6 "2013-03-11T01:03:51Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > In what ways do we treat NK better than Iran? To play devil’s advocate - one could argue that the constant leaking from Israeli/US sources of plans to bomb Iran is treating them different. I don’t recall hearing that about NK. ---
**Author:** ![hansel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/6bbea6/32.png) [@hansel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hansel)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2013, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/say-iran-develops-nukes-how-do-we-make-good-on-our-threats-of-that-not-being-allowed-to-stand/652591/7 "2013-03-11T01:07:55Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > In what ways do we treat NK better than Iran? Doesn’t NK receive food and fuel aid? ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2013, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/say-iran-develops-nukes-how-do-we-make-good-on-our-threats-of-that-not-being-allowed-to-stand/652591/8 "2013-03-11T01:18:37Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > In what ways do we treat NK better than Iran? We don’t back their neighbors for invading them, we don’t sponsor terrorist groups inside their borders, we don’t shoot down their airliners, we don’t constantly threaten them with military attack…lots of ways. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2013, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/say-iran-develops-nukes-how-do-we-make-good-on-our-threats-of-that-not-being-allowed-to-stand/652591/9 "2013-03-11T02:29:39Z")
Have to say: we do very little. We just wait, and continue to isolate them economically, and hope that, some day, they are willing to engage with the rest of the world in a responsible fashion. Meanwhile, we keep them targeted with our own weapons, and make sure they understand M.A.D. My crystal-ball-gazing prophetic powers tell me that there won’t be an air strike on their nuclear factories; the political fall-out (okay, bad choice of idiom) would be pretty bad. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2013, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/say-iran-develops-nukes-how-do-we-make-good-on-our-threats-of-that-not-being-allowed-to-stand/652591/10 "2013-03-11T03:07:39Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > We don’t back their neighbors for invading them, we don’t sponsor terrorist groups inside their borders, we don’t shoot down their airliners, we don’t constantly threaten them with military attack…lots of ways. When in the past 24 years has the US shot down any Iranian airliners and when have they ever done so deliberately. The only case I know of the US shooting down an Iranian airline occurred back during the Reagan administration and was clearly an accident and doing so was actually a huge boon to the Iranian government. Anyway, your comment seems to suggest this is something that happens on a regular basis and that they are deliberate acts by the US government so please show us some recent incidents of the US government shooting down Iranian airliners as well as evidence that it was deliberate as opposed to accidental. BTW, when the US gave aid to the French resistance was it backing a terrorist group? If you feel they weren’t then please explain your reasoning. ---
**Author:** ![Inbred\_Mm\_domesticus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/aca169/32.png) [@Inbred\_Mm\_domesticus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inbred_Mm_domesticus)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2013, 3:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/say-iran-develops-nukes-how-do-we-make-good-on-our-threats-of-that-not-being-allowed-to-stand/652591/11 "2013-03-11T03:43:40Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > BTW, when the US gave aid to the French resistance was it backing a terrorist group? > > If you feel they weren’t then please explain your reasoning. Who cares what he has to say about our support for this resistance/terrorist/freedom fighter organization or that one? Who cares about any of our perceptions on whether this or that organization is composed of terrorists? His point is that from Iran’s perspective, we are supporting militant anti-government forces in their territory. The French resistance and the varied militant anti-government forces are viewed the same way by their respective occupying forces. Maybe now you see you don’t have much of a gotcha question. ---
**Author:** ![Sitnam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Sitnam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sitnam)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2013, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/say-iran-develops-nukes-how-do-we-make-good-on-our-threats-of-that-not-being-allowed-to-stand/652591/12 "2013-03-11T03:44:59Z")
The US does nothing, but it’s political position in a region it cares about becomes stronger. We are not generally popular there now, we are hedonistic godless imperialistic pigs. But at least we aren’t a Shiite fundamentalist regime with regional scores to settle and armed with nukes. We don’t need to do anything when Iran becomes nuclear, their enemies will come to us. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2013, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/say-iran-develops-nukes-how-do-we-make-good-on-our-threats-of-that-not-being-allowed-to-stand/652591/13 "2013-03-11T03:55:21Z")
> [@DataX](#): > > To play devil’s advocate - one could argue that the constant leaking from Israeli/US sources of plans to bomb Iran is treating them different. I don’t recall hearing that about NK. You’re right. I can’t remember Israel threatening to bomb NK, so there is that! And we have been giving them aid long before they had nukes. > [@DT](#): > > We don’t back their neighbors for invading them, we don’t sponsor terrorist groups inside their borders, we don’t shoot down their airliners, we don’t constantly threaten them with military attack…lots of ways. Can you remind me how many troops we have permanently stationed on Iran’s border for the last 50 years? ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2013, 4:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/say-iran-develops-nukes-how-do-we-make-good-on-our-threats-of-that-not-being-allowed-to-stand/652591/14 "2013-03-11T04:14:20Z")
> [@Inbred\_Mm\_domesticus](#): > > His point is that from Iran’s perspective, we are supporting militant anti-government forces in their territory. From our perspective as well; we’ve supported groups inside Iran that our own State Department officially labeled terrorists (the MEK for example). > [@John\_Mace](#): > > Can you remind me how many troops we have permanently stationed on Iran’s border for the last 50 years? We [famously](http://static7.businessinsider.com/image/4ee6562eecad04150d00003f/us-bases.jpg) have them surrounded by military bases. Are you really trying to argue that America doesn’t have a long history of hostility to Iran? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2013, 4:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/say-iran-develops-nukes-how-do-we-make-good-on-our-threats-of-that-not-being-allowed-to-stand/652591/15 "2013-03-11T04:24:56Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > From our perspective as well; we’ve supported groups inside Iran that our own State Department officially labeled terrorists (the MEK for example). You’re right. We have not aided the numerous resistance groups inside NK. Oh, wait. There aren’t any! Similarly, the thriving NK international airline industry carrying throngs of NK tourists overseas has never been subject to an accidental US missile launch. Can you remind us how many such flights there are from NK? I lost track. > [@](#): > > We [famously](http://static7.businessinsider.com/image/4ee6562eecad04150d00003f/us-bases.jpg) have them surrounded by military bases. > > Are you really trying to argue that America doesn’t have a long history of hostility to Iran? No, I’m trying to argue that we haven’t treated them differently in an substantial way, except that we’ve probably been more aggressive towards NK than Iran, if anythting. I’m certainly not arguing that we’ve treated them exactly the same, instance by instance, but might I reming you that we actually fought a real, live war against NK? If you’d like to go point and point and show that all the aggressive acts we’ve taken against NK are somehow less than those taken against Iran, know yourself out. They just don’t compare. ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2013, 5:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/say-iran-develops-nukes-how-do-we-make-good-on-our-threats-of-that-not-being-allowed-to-stand/652591/16 "2013-03-11T05:32:46Z")
The reason the US and Israel are able to make threats about the actions they will take to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon is because they know Iran is not pursuing a weapon and has no intention of doing so. Therefore they know they will never have to back up their hawkish rhetoric with action. They score points with voters at home for “facing down the threat” when there is no threat at all. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2013, 5:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/say-iran-develops-nukes-how-do-we-make-good-on-our-threats-of-that-not-being-allowed-to-stand/652591/17 "2013-03-11T05:42:01Z")
> [@WillFarnaby](#): > > The reason the US and Israel are able to make threats about the actions they will take to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon is because they know Iran is not pursuing a weapon and has no intention of doing so. Therefore they know they will never have to back up their hawkish rhetoric with action. They score points with voters at home for “facing down the threat” when there is no threat at all. And your source of this secrete knowledge is…? It makes sense for Iran to want to be a nuclear power. It sees itself as the legitimate, prevailing power in the Muslim Middle East. It’s long running enemy, Israel, is a nuclear power. The most parsimonious answer is that Iran is indeed seeking to be a nuclear power. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2013, 6:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/say-iran-develops-nukes-how-do-we-make-good-on-our-threats-of-that-not-being-allowed-to-stand/652591/18 "2013-03-11T06:02:47Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > In what ways do we treat NK better than Iran? I’m afraid that it’ll sound like I’m picking on GWB again, but the Clinton Administration had programs in place to reward North Korea for not developing nuclear weapons. Bush rescinded these programs and began treating NK with respect only _after_ it had nuclear weapons, as described in [this article](http://voices.yahoo.com/george-w-bushs-foreign-policy-toward-north-korea-7143892.html?cat=75): > [@](#): > > Indeed, North Korea stated during the October 2002 talks that it had been “compelled” to violate the Agreed Framework in the first place because of its placement in the “Axis of Evil,” and it is likely that the U.S.‘s move to act against another “Axis of Evil” nation (that is, Iraq) exacerbated the Framework’s breakdown and reinvigorated North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. This is a marked failure of Cha’s “hawk engagement” strategy, as well as Bush administration foreign policy generally. By taking a tough stance against nations it considered threats to U.S. security and preparing for an invasion of one of them, it strengthened North Korea’s resolve to continue its nuclear program in the name of deterrence, in turn making North Korea appear even more like a “rogue regime.” U.S. policy towards North Korea had become a self-fulfilling prophecy. > … > In July of 2006, the United States supported a UN resolution condemning a series of recent North Korean missile tests that were likely carried out in response to the freezing of North Korean assets. Angered by the UN resolution, on October 3, 2006, North Korea announced that it intended to test a nuclear weapon to counter the United States’ “de facto ‘declaration of war’” and “foolish attempt to stifle and isolate [North Korea] economically and bring down the socialist system.” Six days later, on October 9, North Korea detonated a nuclear weapon near the city of Kimchaek. > … > [Bush’s envoy] gave his word that the economic sanctions would be lifted at a later date. This reversal was a far cry from the murmurings of regime change that had been heard from the Bush administration since it first came into office, and over the next year and a half reaped positive results for the United States. An agreement was reached within days of Hill’s June, 2007 visit in which North Korea agreed to shut down its nuclear reactor and allow International Atomic Energy Agency monitors into the country in exchange for economic aid. One of the carrots offered to Pyongyang to promote compliance was the removal of North Korea from the list of terrorism-supporting countries. On June 26, 2008, President Bush announced the removal of North Korea from the terrorism list, and North Korea offered a declaration of its nuclear capabilities on the same day. Similarly, did not Iran make conciliatory gestures toward U.S.A. ca 2002, and accelerate its weapons program only after being rebuffed? ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2013, 6:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/say-iran-develops-nukes-how-do-we-make-good-on-our-threats-of-that-not-being-allowed-to-stand/652591/19 "2013-03-11T06:19:11Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > And your source of this secrete knowledge is…? The [US government](http://m.newyorker.com/reporting/2011/06/06/110606fa_fact_hersh) and the [Israeli](http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0312/74157.html) government are my sources. > [@](#): > > The two most recent National Intelligence Estimates (N.I.E.s) on Iranian nuclear progress, representing the best judgment of the senior officers from all the major American intelligence agencies, have stated that there is no conclusive evidence that Iran has made any effort to build the bomb since 2003. > [@](#): > > Several senior Israeli officials who spoke in recent days to The Associated Press said Israel has come around to the U.S. view that no final decision to build a bomb has been made by Iran. The officials, who are privy to intelligence and to the discussion about the Iranian program, said this is the prevailing view in the intelligence community, but there are also questions about whether Tehran might be hiding specific bomb making operations. Of course those “questions” will forever be open. That’s the thing about questions. They can always be asked. > [@](#): > > It makes sense for Iran to want to be a nuclear power. It makes sense for me to want an acre of marijuana plants, but I wouldn’t want to deal with the consequences. > [@](#): > > It sees itself as the legitimate, prevailing power in the Muslim Middle East. It’s long running enemy, Israel, is a nuclear power. The most parsimonious answer is that Iran is indeed seeking to be a nuclear power. So you’re just going to assume because it would be in their interest that they are pursuing a weapon? ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2013, 6:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/say-iran-develops-nukes-how-do-we-make-good-on-our-threats-of-that-not-being-allowed-to-stand/652591/20 "2013-03-11T06:25:49Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > And your source of this secrete knowledge is…? > > It makes sense for Iran to want to be a nuclear power. It sees itself as the legitimate, prevailing power in the Muslim Middle East. It’s long running enemy, Israel, is a nuclear power. The most parsimonious answer is that Iran is indeed seeking to be a nuclear power. Wrong and wrong. Iranian reigme would be happy to survive this decade. And Israel is not Irans long running enemy, Iran was best of buds with Israel until the Shah was kicked out and furthermore Iran saw Iraq as the main threat until 2003. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/say-iran-develops-nukes-how-do-we-make-good-on-our-threats-of-that-not-being-allowed-to-stand/652591.md?page=2)