# Scary scenario for Trump victory **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [February 27, 2024, 12:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scary-scenario-for-trump-victory/998164 "2024-02-27T12:42:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![CalMeacham](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/calmeacham/32/35_2.png) [@CalMeacham](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CalMeacham)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 12:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scary-scenario-for-trump-victory/998164/1 "2024-02-27T12:42:25Z")
I’ve seen similar ideas put forward, and can’t find a problem with this one: > **[The New "Over the Top" Secret Plan on How Fascists Could Win in 2024](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/2/26/2225913/-The-New-Over-the-Top-Secret-Plan-on-How-Fascists-Could-Win-in-2024?utm_campaign=trending)** > > Back on March 13, 2020 — almost exactly four years ago — I wrote an article that was published at alternet.org laying out how Republicans were then, ten months before January 6th, planning to partially repeat the debacle of the election of 1876 by... > [@](#): > > First, Republicans need to make sure they’re in control of the House of Representatives on January 6th, 2024, when the new president will be certified. > > To do that, even though Democrats might have won enough seats to take back the House in the 2024 election, Speaker Johnson will refuse to swear into Congress on January 3rd a handful of those Democrats, claiming there are “irregularities” in their elections that must be first investigated. > … > > **That keeps Speaker “MAGA Moscow Mike” Johnson in charge of the House, so they can also refuse to accept the Electoral College certificates of election from a handful of states where they claim there are “problems.”** > … > > **Then, regardless of how many votes Biden won by, electoral or popular, the House simply refuses to certify the electoral college votes of enough states that the minimum of 270 isn’t reached. Under the 12th Amendment, like with the [election of 1876](https://hartmannreport.com/p/trumps-secret-plan-was-no-secret), that throws the election to the House, where each state has one vote.** > > While a majority of Americans live in a state run by Democrats, a majority of the states themselves are run by Republicans. Each state gets one vote for president in the House, and right now 26 state delegations are GOP-controlled, meaning that a majority of the House would simply vote to put Trump back into the White House, . All totally legal. ---
**Author:** ![fachverwirrt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/94ad74/32.png) [@fachverwirrt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fachverwirrt)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scary-scenario-for-trump-victory/998164/2 "2024-02-27T13:13:58Z")
Mike Johnson won’t be speaker. His term expires at the end of the previous Congress no matter who wins the majority. ---
**Author:** ![CalMeacham](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/calmeacham/32/35_2.png) [@CalMeacham](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CalMeacham)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 1:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scary-scenario-for-trump-victory/998164/3 "2024-02-27T13:18:15Z")
Won’t the House still be in Republican hands at that point, regardless? ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 1:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scary-scenario-for-trump-victory/998164/4 "2024-02-27T13:21:48Z")
It’s really uncharted territory once we begin to discuss not seating the new House with its new Speaker. Yes, there are rules. Which aren’t perfectly clear for absolutely every possibility and which have never been tested. IMO it’s pointless to try to rules-lawyer through a scenario like this. The “rules” will actually be whatever the bad guys can get away with, as slowed, or abetted by whatever the courts have to say timely enough to matter. Revolutions do not proceed according to rule books and history will be (re-)written by whichever side wins. ---
**Author:** ![fachverwirrt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/94ad74/32.png) [@fachverwirrt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fachverwirrt)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scary-scenario-for-trump-victory/998164/5 "2024-02-27T13:24:35Z")
If the Democrats win the majority? No. The 118th Congress ends at noon on January 3. Mike Johnson (assuming he wins his congressional election) becomes a regular member. The new Congress gathers, and the Clerk of the house presides over the election of the new speaker. The clerk doesn’t have any authority to accept or reject anyone as a member. I don’t see any point in the procedure when Johnson (or any other MAGAt) can throw a wrench in that process. ---
**Author:** ![Ulysses](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ulysses/32/16083_2.png) [@Ulysses](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulysses)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 1:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scary-scenario-for-trump-victory/998164/6 "2024-02-27T13:33:33Z")
I don’t think the Congress has the authority to refuse to seat a member unless they are constitutionally ineligible, per Powell v. McCormick. And if the basis is a challenge to the validity of a member’s election, there is a fairly well defined process that must be followed in 2 USC Chapter 12 that includes discovery and evidentiary processes. If the Speaker tried to unilaterally refuse to seat a member on the basis of “election irregularities,” the elected member would file suit and very likely obtain a court order to be seated. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scary-scenario-for-trump-victory/998164/7 "2024-02-27T19:24:18Z")
Even if the GOP takes the House, and even if they hold enough state delegations to win if the count goes to the House, they would need to have a pretty sizable majority to “refuse to accept” state electoral votes. And they would need the Senate too. Also, Harris will be presiding over the joint session, so they won’t be able to use “non-standard order”. Finally, the updated electoral count act would require 1/5 of both the House and Senate to object to a state’s certificate before it even goes to a vote. Remember in 2020 only 8 GOP Senators voted against certification, and 139 House members. It also limited the possible grounds for objection significantly - “we don’t think it was fair” is not one of them. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scary-scenario-for-trump-victory/998164/8 "2024-02-27T19:42:12Z")
I mean this kind of thing has gone from “utterly bonkers conspiracy theory” to “yeah something like this will probably happen if Trump loses”. How far it goes, and whether it ultimately succeeds (the other posters make some criticism of the details of this exact hypothetical) but some attempt to prevent Biden being sworn is pretty much guaranteed. I think if there is an overwhelming Biden victory it would be a fairly token effort by hardcore Trump loyalists. But if its really close there would be a huge effort at the state and federal level GOP to overturn it, from the moment the votes start to come in, and there is no guaranteed it would fail. This will be doubly so if there is a perception that the court cases were the deciding factor in Trump’s loss (this will be the case on the Trump side no matter what IMO) as you know its not overturning the will of the people its just righting the injustice of using the corrupt judiciary to prevent Trump from getting elected. > [@Jas09](#): > > Remember in 2020 only 8 GOP Senators voted against certification, and 139 House members. Though since then the fact that trump had the election stolen from him has become GOP policy. Hell, it is literally part of the presumptive GOP candidate for president’s 2024 election pitch. In 2025 if the GOP are in charge of both houses, those numbers would absolutely be bigger. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scary-scenario-for-trump-victory/998164/9 "2024-02-27T19:49:42Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > It also limited the possible grounds for objection significantly - “we don’t think it was fair” is not one of them. Though what enforcement mechanism is there for that? If the GOP members object “because Trump says so” who’s to say that’s not a good reason (or just gives one of the allowed reasons, even though they clearly don’t apply) ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scary-scenario-for-trump-victory/998164/10 "2024-02-27T20:46:05Z")
The presiding officer rules the objection out of order. That officer will be Kamala Harris. ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scary-scenario-for-trump-victory/998164/11 "2024-02-27T20:56:56Z")
> [@griffin1977](#): > > > [@Jas09](#): > > > > It also limited the possible grounds for objection significantly - “we don’t think it was fair” is not one of them. > > Though what enforcement mechanism is there for that? If the GOP members object “because Trump says so” who’s to say that’s not a good reason (or just gives one of the allowed reasons, even though they clearly don’t apply) Title 3, Section 15(d)(2)(B)(ii), United States Code: _"Grounds for objections.—The only grounds for objections shall be as follows:_ _(I) The electors of the State were not lawfully certified under a certificate of ascertainment of appointment of electors according to section 5(a)(1)._ _(II) The vote of one or more electors has not been regularly given."_ (5(a)(1): _“Not later than the date that is 6 days before the time fixed for the meeting of the electors, the executive of each State shall issue a certificate of ascertainment of appointment of electors, under and in pursuance of the laws of such State providing for such appointment and ascertainment enacted prior to election day.”_) ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scary-scenario-for-trump-victory/998164/12 "2024-02-27T20:58:21Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > The presiding officer rules the objection out of order. That officer will be Kamala Harris. OK then probably the scenario described in the OP will fail. Even if the GOP legitmately (or illegitmately as described in the OP) end up in control of house and senate on Jan 6th 2025, they won’t control the VP, so it will likely fail. I’d put money on the fact at least one spurious objection will be entered if Trump loses, a decent chance that they’ll be more than the 1/5 threshold if a democratic VP wasn’t around to rule them out of order. Which is still completely bonkers situation to be in (and even more bonkers that the likely [GOP candidate for VP has said out loud she would go ahead and sabotage the vote count](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stefanik-has-said-shed-betray-american-democray-how-the-fuck-is-this-not-front-page-news/997367/26), if Trump winds and something like this happens in 2029) ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scary-scenario-for-trump-victory/998164/13 "2024-02-27T21:17:02Z")
> [@That\_Don\_Guy](#): > > (5(a)(1): _“Not later than the date that is 6 days before the time fixed for the meeting of the electors, the executive of each State shall issue a certificate of ascertainment of appointment of electors, under and in pursuance of the laws of such State providing for such appointment and ascertainment enacted prior to election day.”_) And actually this is the much more likely avenue for ratfuckery, IMO. There are a few states where the GOP controls the executive, and I could _possibly_ see them trying to submit a certificate of ascertainment that is not in line with the popular vote in their states. This update does remove the state legislatures from the equation (since the laws have to be in place prior to election day). Fortunately, WI, MI, PA, and AZ all have Democratic governors. So good luck to Trump going that route. He’d have to convince somebody like Youngkin to flip Virginia or something like that. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scary-scenario-for-trump-victory/998164/14 "2024-02-27T21:20:43Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > And actually this is the much more likely avenue for ratfuckery, IMO. There are a few states where the GOP controls the executive, and I could _possibly_ see them trying to submit a certificate of ascertainment that is not in line with the popular vote in their states. This update does remove the state legislatures from the equation (since the laws have to be in place prior to election day). Agreed, especially as “did not agree to let Trump overturn an election and become dictator” has been a mark of shame for any state GOP official in the party for the last 4 years. ---
**Author:** ![jlh3rd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/eb8c5e/32.png) [@jlh3rd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jlh3rd)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 1:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scary-scenario-for-trump-victory/998164/15 "2024-02-28T13:49:13Z")
lol… TDS much ?..Fascists?..Look in the mirror, buddy. name calling, labeling, that’s all your side has, certainly not the facts. Anything and everything you claim we conservatives are allegedly going to do, you and yours are in fact doing now. You gotta love it and laugh at your pontifying labeling, if it wasn’t so insidious as to what is behind your " mask". Sickening. Voting for biden ( small “b” on purpose) makes that person an integral part of what led to Laken Riley’s death. Sleep well tonight. ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scary-scenario-for-trump-victory/998164/16 "2024-02-28T14:16:51Z")
> [@jlh3rd](#): > > Voting for biden ( small “b” on purpose) Whoa! What a burn! ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scary-scenario-for-trump-victory/998164/17 "2024-02-28T14:32:55Z")
I’m still seeing predictions that Trump will select RFK Jr. as his veep candidate. There’s close to zero chance Trump will risk a younger version of himself getting a heavy share of attention, or that Junior will consent to being second fiddle in the Loony Orchestra. ---
**Author:** ![jlh3rd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/eb8c5e/32.png) [@jlh3rd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jlh3rd)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scary-scenario-for-trump-victory/998164/18 "2024-02-28T14:40:18Z")
Oh yeah… ---
**Author:** ![jlh3rd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/eb8c5e/32.png) [@jlh3rd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jlh3rd)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scary-scenario-for-trump-victory/998164/19 "2024-02-28T14:42:41Z")
“looney”…lol…see what I mean? …Nov. 5th, D-day. Literally. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scary-scenario-for-trump-victory/998164/20 "2024-02-28T14:45:51Z")
Daily Kos community member generated articles are useless. My favorite bit from the article is that it says Johnson refused to swear in Tom Suozzi so that he’d have the votes to impeach Mayorkas. But the NY special election and the Mayorkas vote were on the same day – Suozzi _couldn’t_ have been sworn in in time for the impeachment vote. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scary-scenario-for-trump-victory/998164.md?page=2)