# Schrodinger's Lottery

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/schrodingers-lottery/569466>\
**Category:** Great Debates\
**Created:** [January 30, 2011, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/schrodingers-lottery/569466 "2011-01-30T01:24:05Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 4\
**Page:** 2

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**Author:** ![KarlGauss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karlgauss/32/3713_2.png) [@KarlGauss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KarlGauss)\
**Post date:** [February 1, 2011, 4:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/schrodingers-lottery/569466/21 "2011-02-01T04:43:40Z")

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> [@Little\_Nemo](#):
>
> I’d like to see you defend this premise. While the odds of winning the lottery without ever buying a ticket are low, they are definitely not non-zero (sic). People find lost tickets, people steal tickets, people receive tickets as gifts.

The odds of _winning_ the lottery without ever buying a ticket are definitely zero. The odds of _cashing_ a winning ticket (say, because, you found a lost ticket, or stole one, or received the ticket as a gift) are low, but they are definitely not zero.

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**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\
**Post date:** [February 1, 2011, 4:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/schrodingers-lottery/569466/22 "2011-02-01T04:53:00Z")

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I think when most people talk about winning the lottery they mean collecting the prize not claiming the abstract victory.

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**Author:** ![don\_t\_ask](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e68b1a/32.png) [@don\_t\_ask](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/don_t_ask)\
**Post date:** [February 1, 2011, 12:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/schrodingers-lottery/569466/23 "2011-02-01T12:09:02Z")

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> [@Daylate](#):
>
> The odds of winning the lottery if you never buy a ticket are zero.
> 
> The odds of winning, if you do buy a ticket, are small but most definitely non-zero.
> 
> So, if you divide a any non-zero number, no matter how small, by zero, you get ∞. QED, the odds of winning with a ticket are infinitely better than if you don’t have a ticket. Such a deal!
> 
> Math is such a blast!
> 
> And no, I NEVER buy a lottery ticket!!

But since you can’t divide by zero the correct calculation becomes:

Say there are 1,000,000 tickets.

You buy one. Your chance of not winning is 99.9999%.

I don’t buy one. My chance of not winning is 100.0000%.

So your chance of not winning is 99.9999% of my chance of not winning. So you have increased your chances of winning by 0.0001% by buying a ticket.

It’s a very popular trick in health stats. You pick something that very few people die of, say 1 in 100,000 and then find that people who eat, say pork, have a death rate of 2 in 100,000. Instant headlines - “Pork Doubles Death Rate.” Not really, either way it isn’t your biggest risk.

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**Author:** ![Half\_Man\_Half\_Wit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/half_man_half_wit/32/21766_2.png) [@Half\_Man\_Half\_Wit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Half_Man_Half_Wit)\
**Post date:** [February 1, 2011, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/schrodingers-lottery/569466/24 "2011-02-01T14:37:02Z")

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> [@mcott](#):
>
> Sorry I clipped much of your post, but if you can build said machine, I’ll give you half of the winnings if I live.

Of course, I’d probably be in the wrong universe then.

And honestly, if I could build that machine, do you think I’d be wasting my time composing elaborate hypotheticals on the internet to while away a dreary Sunday afternoon? I’d be waterskiing in the Mediterranean, on skis made of solid gold, on my shoulders a human pyramid consisting of the members of the Swedish national Bikini championship team (I’ll just keep quantum-offing myself until I find a universe in which there is one, 'cause really, as I’ve just now realised, there’s no point in existing in a universe in which there isn’t, even if you’re rich).

…In a vanishingly small subset of worlds, that is. In yours, I’d probably just be dead.

> [@](#):
>
> That was actually informative and amusing, and more than I was looking for in starting a thread on a whim. 😉

Glad you enjoyed it. 🙂

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