# Scientists in prison for "bad prediction" in Italian earthquake **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [October 28, 2012, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scientists-in-prison-for-bad-prediction-in-italian-earthquake/639097 "2012-10-28T01:37:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 12\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2012, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scientists-in-prison-for-bad-prediction-in-italian-earthquake/639097/41 "2012-10-30T12:53:02Z")
> [@Musicat](#): > > Scientist (Monday): There’s a 50% chance of a major earthquake in the next 30 days. > > Events (Tuesday): Major earthquake happens > > Court (Wednesday): Scientist, guilty. He only forecast 50% and should have said 100%. Put his ass in jail! Actually it was: Scientist - There’s less chance of a major earthquake after minor ones. Politician - There’s been a minor earthquake, everyone stop worrying. Scientists - Silence… Event - Major earthquake kills people. Court - Politician and scientists guilty. They said it wouldn’t happen and it did. Jail! Now, the scientists didn’t actually say that, as far as I can tell, and so shouldn’t be punished, but they certainly didn’t clarify matters, as they should have done. ---
**Author:** ![Gedd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gedd/32/4938_2.png) [@Gedd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gedd)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2012, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scientists-in-prison-for-bad-prediction-in-italian-earthquake/639097/42 "2012-10-30T14:32:30Z")
[There’s a Pit thread on this too.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=625082) I quoted an article: > [@](#): > > When asked during the meeting if the current seismic swarm could be a precursor to a major quake like the one that levelled L’Aquila in 1703, Boschi said, according to the meeting minutes: “It is unlikely that an earthquake like the one in 1703 could occur in the short term, but the possibility cannot be totally excluded.” I guess they were prosecuted for not going door to door with that information. :dubious: [Here’s the full article,](http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110914/full/477264a.html) which came out when the trial started. ---
**Author:** ![Leo\_Bloom](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/leo_bloom/32/10377_2.png) [@Leo\_Bloom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leo_Bloom)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2014, 5:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scientists-in-prison-for-bad-prediction-in-italian-earthquake/639097/43 "2014-11-11T05:50:42Z")
The _Cosa Nostra_ go free. can I remember my OPs, or what? ---
**Author:** ![Leo\_Bloom](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/leo_bloom/32/10377_2.png) [@Leo\_Bloom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leo_Bloom)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2014, 10:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scientists-in-prison-for-bad-prediction-in-italian-earthquake/639097/44 "2014-11-11T10:48:34Z")
Correction: Only one of the seven experts originally found guilty was convicted today: Bernardo De Bernardinis, who in 2009 was deputy head of Italy’s Civil Protection Department and who will now serve 2 years in jail, pending any further appeals. From a better news report in _Science_. ---
**Author:** ![aldiboronti](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9fc348/32.png) [@aldiboronti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aldiboronti)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2014, 11:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scientists-in-prison-for-bad-prediction-in-italian-earthquake/639097/45 "2014-11-11T11:35:30Z")
Shouldn’t God have been the one on trial? 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2014, 5:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scientists-in-prison-for-bad-prediction-in-italian-earthquake/639097/46 "2014-11-12T05:50:12Z")
> [@aldiboronti](#): > > Shouldn’t God have been the one on trial? 🙂 Only if you can find someone who claims to serve the Lord who’s willing and able to serve process on the old so-and-so. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Joker\_and\_the\_Thief](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e79b87/32.png) [@The\_Joker\_and\_the\_Thief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Joker_and_the_Thief)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2014, 6:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scientists-in-prison-for-bad-prediction-in-italian-earthquake/639097/47 "2014-11-12T06:44:42Z")
> [@Derleth](#): > > Only if you can find someone who claims to serve the Lord who’s willing and able to serve process on the old so-and-so. God may also have sovereign immunity as the Lord of Heaven. cf. Mayo v. Satan and His Staff ---
**Author:** ![kanicbird](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/5f8ce5/32.png) [@kanicbird](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kanicbird)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2014, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scientists-in-prison-for-bad-prediction-in-italian-earthquake/639097/48 "2014-11-12T16:08:44Z")
> [@Leo\_Bloom](#): > > … didn’t one of the Caesars have the sea whipped because of a storm? … Not sure but in old Egypt IIRC a engineer who constructed a dwelling that collapsed was to be put to death may have required a death in the collapse of the house however. ---
**Author:** ![Darth\_Panda](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ee7513/32.png) [@Darth\_Panda](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darth_Panda)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2014, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scientists-in-prison-for-bad-prediction-in-italian-earthquake/639097/49 "2014-11-12T17:06:24Z")
> [@kanicbird](#): > > Not sure but in old Egypt IIRC a engineer who constructed a dwelling that collapsed was to be put to death may have required a death in the collapse of the house however. That’s from the Code of Hammurabi in Babylonia. > [@](#): > > If a builder builds a house for someone, and does not construct it properly and the house falls in and kills its owner, then that builder shall be put to death. [http://cenews.com/article/6142/the-code-of-hammurabi-and-structural-engineers](http://cenews.com/article/6142/the-code-of-hammurabi-and-structural-engineers) ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2015, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scientists-in-prison-for-bad-prediction-in-italian-earthquake/639097/50 "2015-11-22T20:14:31Z")
**UPDATE :** Scientists cleared on charges. [http://news.sciencemag.org/europe/2015/11/italy-s-supreme-court-clears-l-aquila-earthquake-scientists-good](http://news.sciencemag.org/europe/2015/11/italy-s-supreme-court-clears-l-aquila-earthquake-scientists-good) > [@](#): > > Six scientists convicted of manslaughter for advice they gave ahead of the deadly L’Aquila earthquake in 2009 today were definitively acquitted by Italy’s Supreme Court of Cassation in Rome following lengthy deliberations by a panel of five judges. But the court upheld the conviction of a public official tried alongside them. > > The ruling marks the end of a five-year legal process that has proved immensely controversial in the scientific world and beyond. In 2010 the seven were placed under investigation for allegedly giving false and fatal reassurances to the people of L’Aquila a few days ahead of the earthquake, which struck on 6 April 2009, killing 309. The seven were put on trial a year later and in 2012 were each handed six-year jail sentences. At an appeal last year, however, six of them—three seismologists, a volcanologist, and two seismic engineers—were acquitted. The seventh, Bernardo De Bernardinis, who at the time of the quake was deputy head of Italy’s civil protection department, remained convicted but with a reduced jail term of two years. ---
**Author:** ![Leo\_Bloom](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/leo_bloom/32/10377_2.png) [@Leo\_Bloom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leo_Bloom)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2015, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scientists-in-prison-for-bad-prediction-in-italian-earthquake/639097/51 "2015-11-23T02:28:33Z")
Thanks for the update (zombie two). Good thread. ---
**Author:** ![the\_diego](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7bcc69/32.png) [@the\_diego](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/the_diego)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2015, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scientists-in-prison-for-bad-prediction-in-italian-earthquake/639097/52 "2015-11-23T02:31:52Z")
“Crime due to negligence, lack of foresight, or lack of skill…” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scientists-in-prison-for-bad-prediction-in-italian-earthquake/639097.md?page=2)