It really is only just starting. The Washington Film Critics nominations just came out. The Artist led the awards (mainly because of acting awards, which will also happen at the Oscars) but Hugo has nominations for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Acting Ensemble, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Art Direction, Best Cinematography & Best Score (which I forgot to mention above). They don’t do the more technical awards. Most critics’ groups don’t.
I don’t think you understand how BELOVED Hugo is among Academy voters. I don’t follow many “celebrities” (names the masses would recognize), but I follow some people who Re-tweet their thoughts about Hugo on Twitter.
This is a movie about movies, about the love of movies, about the history of movies, about film preservation, by a beloved film director who’s positively famous for his deep love of movies. Who cares what the masses want, like or do? Totally tanking will not keep Hugo out of the Oscars. The critics love it (94%!) and it’s going to be nominated by almost every critics awards out there, and if we’re talking about Oscars, and we pretty much are, we’re talking about the people who vote on Oscars, and the people who vote on Oscars, people actively involved in film, are going gaga over both Hugo and The Artist. I understand what you’re saying about box office, but I completely disagree with your assessment of its Oscar nomination chances.
Btw, here are the major films most often touted to be possible Best Picture contenders, barring an out and out surprise. There are 5 major movies that haven’t been released wide or at all yet, marked with a *, in the order of likelihood they’ll be nominated, in my opinion.
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The Artist
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
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Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
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War Horse
The Descendants
Moneyball
J Edgar
The Help
Tree of Life
Margin Call
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
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Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
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The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Loud/Close and Girl are only last because they haven’t been seen much yet. Either could jump to near the top in the next couple of weeks, especially Loud/Close since it’s a Stephen Daldry film and every film he’s ever made has gotten major Oscar nominations (Billy Elliot, The Hours, The Reader) and because it’s supposed to be all heartwarming and stuff.
Tintin is still to be released but that will be nominated in the Animated category.
I can often be lousy at predictions but I really do think The Artist, Hugo, Midnight In Paris, TTSS and War Horse (unfortunately) are locks, the rest up in the air.