# Scotland Independence Referendum Mk2 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 13, 2017, 12:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081 "2017-03-13T12:04:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![UDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecae2f/32.png) [@UDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/21 "2017-03-14T00:38:49Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > If they get another shot, can’t the UK get another shot at the Brexit vote? The UK can have another shot at the Brexit vote any time it likes. It doesn’t need anybody’s permission. Which is pretty much Sturgeon’s point, really. ---
**Author:** ![Lyonessite](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ecccb3/32.png) [@Lyonessite](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lyonessite)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 5:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/22 "2017-03-14T05:47:37Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Cite? I’ve heard nothing of that sort except from the SNP > > Anyway [May has rejected](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/13/may-rejects-sturgeons-demand-for-second-independence-vote) Sturgeon’s demand. Have listened to BBC, Sky and ITV news and read most press reports. None believe May will (or poltically can)refse a referendum, but all suggest she will try to delay it unril after the Brexit negotiations or maybe Brexit itself. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 6:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/23 "2017-03-14T06:36:08Z")
Britain should break up–simple reality is that if you accept secession as valid, secession will happen. Britain decided to commit suicide many years ago when it accepted the validity of secession by referendum, so it ought just break up. The biggest problem Scotland will find is that the EU simply isn’t going to fast track them or turn a blind eye to shoddy finances to let them in. There’s been far too much political drama in the EU over the Greek situation for them to invite a country that, by all projections, will get a start in life running fairly serious fiscal deficits and, with a desire for extremely robust social welfare, minimal chances of reigning them in. The great dream, that is no longer based on market-based economic reality, is North Sea oil, paired with Scotland’s relatively small population would make it a rich northern state, much like Norway with its vast sovereign wealth fund. But unfortunately for Scotland, the sell by date on that scheme has long past, and given the state of the international oil markets, the likelihood of even more aggressive drilling in the United States, the idea that North Sea oil which is relatively expensive to extract is going to be a great source of wealth just isn’t realistic. There’s nothing magical that says Scotland can’t survive as an independent country, but based on my interactions with SNP supporters I think they tend to have all the realism of Sanders supporters here in America, very pie in the sky, refusal to even acknowledge, let alone address, the seriously deluded economic thinking behind their schemes, and wholly closed off to any dissent. The reality is while Scotland could very well survive as an independent state, the reality is that to do so _and_ get into the EU, it will need to raise taxes and if anything be more modest in social welfare benefits than it already is. I mean, for heaven’s sake, Scotland is an economic laggard within the Union as it is, the idea that it’s going to be able to get its fiscal house in order while funding pie in the sky socialist dreams _and_ qualify for EU membership is just simply not realistic. ---
**Author:** ![Lyonessite](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ecccb3/32.png) [@Lyonessite](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lyonessite)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 7:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/24 "2017-03-14T07:16:21Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > Britain should break up–simple reality is that if you accept secession as valid, secession will happen. Britain decided to commit suicide many years ago when it accepted the validity of secession by referendum, so it ought just break up. > > The biggest problem Scotland will find is that the EU simply isn’t going to fast track them or turn a blind eye to shoddy finances to let them in. There’s been far too much political drama in the EU over the Greek situation for them to invite a country that, by all projections, will get a start in life running fairly serious fiscal deficits and, with a desire for extremely robust social welfare, minimal chances of reigning them in. > > The great dream, that is no longer based on market-based economic reality, is North Sea oil, paired with Scotland’s relatively small population would make it a rich northern state, much like Norway with its vast sovereign wealth fund. But unfortunately for Scotland, the sell by date on that scheme has long past, and given the state of the international oil markets, the likelihood of even more aggressive drilling in the United States, the idea that North Sea oil which is relatively expensive to extract is going to be a great source of wealth just isn’t realistic. > > There’s nothing magical that says Scotland can’t survive as an independent country, but based on my interactions with SNP supporters I think they tend to have all the realism of Sanders supporters here in America, very pie in the sky, refusal to even acknowledge, let alone address, the seriously deluded economic thinking behind their schemes, and wholly closed off to any dissent. The reality is while Scotland could very well survive as an independent state, the reality is that to do so _and_ get into the EU, it will need to raise taxes and if anything be more modest in social welfare benefits than it already is. I mean, for heaven’s sake, Scotland is an economic laggard within the Union as it is, the idea that it’s going to be able to get its fiscal house in order while funding pie in the sky socialist dreams _and_ qualify for EU membership is just simply not realistic. You do realise that GDP per head is higher in Scotland than for the UK? ---
**Author:** ![Lyonessite](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ecccb3/32.png) [@Lyonessite](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lyonessite)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 7:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/25 "2017-03-14T07:17:59Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > Britain should break up–simple reality is that if you accept secession as valid, secession will happen. Britain decided to commit suicide many years ago when it accepted the validity of secession by referendum, so it ought just break up. > > The biggest problem Scotland will find is that the EU simply isn’t going to fast track them or turn a blind eye to shoddy finances to let them in. There’s been far too much political drama in the EU over the Greek situation for them to invite a country that, by all projections, will get a start in life running fairly serious fiscal deficits and, with a desire for extremely robust social welfare, minimal chances of reigning them in. > > The great dream, that is no longer based on market-based economic reality, is North Sea oil, paired with Scotland’s relatively small population would make it a rich northern state, much like Norway with its vast sovereign wealth fund. But unfortunately for Scotland, the sell by date on that scheme has long past, and given the state of the international oil markets, the likelihood of even more aggressive drilling in the United States, the idea that North Sea oil which is relatively expensive to extract is going to be a great source of wealth just isn’t realistic. > > There’s nothing magical that says Scotland can’t survive as an independent country, but based on my interactions with SNP supporters I think they tend to have all the realism of Sanders supporters here in America, very pie in the sky, refusal to even acknowledge, let alone address, the seriously deluded economic thinking behind their schemes, and wholly closed off to any dissent. The reality is while Scotland could very well survive as an independent state, the reality is that to do so _and_ get into the EU, it will need to raise taxes and if anything be more modest in social welfare benefits than it already is. I mean, for heaven’s sake, Scotland is an economic laggard within the Union as it is, the idea that it’s going to be able to get its fiscal house in order while funding pie in the sky socialist dreams _and_ qualify for EU membership is just simply not realistic. EU membership is not important. Membership of the single market and customs union, much easier to achieve quickly, are more important. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 7:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/26 "2017-03-14T07:44:27Z")
**Martin Hyde** , the SNP’s reason d’taire is Scottish Independence. Ever since I started following this topic 20 years ago, Alec Salmond has put forth by my count, 5 different models that Scotland would be A.Rich.Happy.Englih Free.Independant.Country. He has always managed to find a new model when the last one was shown to be unworkable. The difference is that Salmond was probably the shrewdest political operator of his generation and Sturgeon is a duffer. Calling for an Independence Ref now is probably not a good idea. Westminster is not going to be nearly as accommodating as Cameron was in 2011/2012. ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 7:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/27 "2017-03-14T07:45:12Z")
> [@Lyonessite](#): > > You do realise that GDP per head is higher in Scotland than for the UK? Im not sure this is currently true. I suspect the current exact figures are something of a guesstimate. It all depends on what is accounted for. I do know that when the price of oil was high Scotland probably did have greater GDP per head. Now that the oil price is low Scotland’s GDP per head has taken a hit. At the risk of being a pessimist all it would take for Scotland’s GDP to nosedive is for the Whisky industry to falter. A hit to Scotland’s Whisky industry is long overdue. ---
**Author:** ![Lyonessite](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ecccb3/32.png) [@Lyonessite](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lyonessite)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 7:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/28 "2017-03-14T07:53:52Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](#): > > Im not sure this is currently true. I suspect the current exact figures are something of a guesstimate. It all depends on what is accounted for. I do know that when the price of oil was high Scotland probably did have greater GDP per head. Now that the oil price is low Scotland’s GDP per head has taken a hit. At the risk of being a pessimist all it would take for Scotland’s GDP to nosedive is for the Whisky industry to falter. A hit to Scotland’s Whisky industry is long overdue. > **[Economy of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Scotland)** > > The economy of Scotland is an open mixed economy, mainly services based, which is the second largest economy amongst the countries of the United Kingdom. It had an estimated nominal gross domestic product (GDP) of £218.0 billion in 2023, including oil and gas extraction in the country's continental shelf region. Since the Acts of Union 1707, Scotland's economy has been closely aligned with the economy of the rest of the United Kingdom (UK), and England has historically been its main trading ... GDP per head $43,410 > **[United Kingdom GDP per capita PPP](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita-ppp)** > > The Gross Domestic Product per capita in the United Kingdom was last recorded at 54126.14 US dollars in 2023, when adjusted by purchasing power parity (PPP). The GDP per Capita, in the United Kingdom, when adjusted by Purchasing Power Parity is... GDP per head $38,865 ---
**Author:** ![Lyonessite](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ecccb3/32.png) [@Lyonessite](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lyonessite)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 7:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/29 "2017-03-14T07:57:12Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > **Martin Hyde** , the SNP’s reason d’taire is Scottish Independence. Ever since I started following this topic 20 years ago, Alec Salmond has put forth by my count, 5 different models that Scotland would be A.Rich.Happy.Englih Free.Independant.Country. He has always managed to find a new model when the last one was shown to be unworkable. > > The difference is that Salmond was probably the shrewdest political operator of his generation and Sturgeon is a duffer. Calling for an Independence Ref now is probably not a good idea. Westminster is not going to be nearly as accommodating as Cameron was in 2011/2012. The rumour is that Sturgeon was pushed into making the announcement by Salmond and his claque. ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 8:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/30 "2017-03-14T08:05:49Z")
> [@Lyonessite](#): > > [Economy of Scotland - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Scotland) > > GDP per head $43,410 > > [United Kingdom GDP per capita PPP](http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita-ppp) > > GDP per head $38,865 I didn’t really need a cite. I quite willingly admitted the numbers are something of a mess depending on which sources you use. If I wanted to suggest England’s wealth per head is greater than Scotland’s I could probably find those figures. If I wished to find a source suggesting Scotland’s were greater than England’s I could probably find those too. And this is before we include the heavily subsidized Wales and NI dragging both Scotland’s and England’s average wealth down. ---
**Author:** ![Grim\_Render](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a87d85/32.png) [@Grim\_Render](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grim_Render)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 8:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/31 "2017-03-14T08:17:04Z")
I believe Northern Ireland also voted in favour of remain. At this point, the honourable and least complicated out may be for England to leave the United Kingdom. Yes, I do know that’s not going to happen. Just saying, it would solve a lot of issues. ---
**Author:** ![Lyonessite](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ecccb3/32.png) [@Lyonessite](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lyonessite)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 8:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/32 "2017-03-14T08:21:09Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](#): > > I didn’t really need a cite. I quite willingly admitted the numbers are something of a mess depending on which sources you use. If I wanted to suggest England’s wealth per head is greater than Scotland’s I could probably find those figures. If I wished to find a source suggesting Scotland’s were greater than England’s I could probably find those too. And this is before we include the heavily subsidized Wales and NI dragging both Scotland’s and England’s average wealth down. The point is that whatever the specifics, Scotland is not a financal basket case. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 8:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/33 "2017-03-14T08:46:17Z")
Scotland is not a financial basketcase for the same reason as a free spending 16 year old girl is not one. Plus current estimates of Scottish GDP or GDP per capita are useless. A lot of business is based in or operates in Scotland because it is an integral part of the United Kingdom. Business who would be far less concerned with remaining if Scotland leaves. -Do you think the Shipyards on the Clyde will still be able to count on Royal Navy orders for ships and submarines? Or The aerospace jobs that BaE or Rolls Royce provide will stay? -As for Oil, having to sell in the International market will not necessarily provide the same jobs as when their was a guaranteed market, i.e the entire United Kingdom -Banking and Financial Services will not necessarily stay in a small N European country as opposed to being inside the UK. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 9:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/34 "2017-03-14T09:47:44Z")
> [@Lyonessite](#): > > Have listened to BBC, Sky and ITV news and read most press reports. Then you won’t have any trouble producing an actual cite. ---
**Author:** ![Lyonessite](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ecccb3/32.png) [@Lyonessite](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lyonessite)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 9:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/35 "2017-03-14T09:49:52Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Then you won’t have any trouble producing an actual cite. Listen to and watch the media and read the press. She has not and will not deny a Section 30. She may seek to delay it beyond the date Nicola has requested. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 9:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/36 "2017-03-14T09:53:03Z")
GDP per head is only part of the equation. For government finances, what matters is revenues, expenditures and the gap between the two. The Scottish government produces its own figures on this. [From the latest (2016) version](http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2016/08/2132): > [@The Scottish government](#): > > Total Public Sector Revenue 2015-16 > > Including an illustrative geographic share of North Sea, Scottish public sector revenue was estimated as £53.7 billion (7.9 per cent of UK revenue). Of this, £60 million was North Sea revenue. > > Scotland’s illustrative share of North Sea revenue fell from **£1.8 billion in 2014-15 to £60 million** , reflecting a decline in total UK North Sea revenue. > > Scotland’s public sector revenue is equivalent to **£10,000 per person, £400 less than the UK average** , regardless of the inclusion of North Sea revenue. > > Total Public Sector Expenditure 2015-16 > > Total expenditure for the benefit of Scotland by the Scottish Government, UK Government, and all other parts of the public sector was £68.6 billion. This is equivalent to 9.1 per cent of total UK public sector expenditure, and **£12,800 per person, which is £1,200 per person greater than the UK average**. > > Current Budget Balance 2015-16 > > This is the difference between total revenue and current expenditure (i.e. excluding capital investment). The current budget balance: > > Excluding North Sea revenue, was a deficit of £12.7 billion (8.6 per cent of GDP). > > Including an illustrative geographic share of North Sea revenue, was a deficit of £12.6 billion **(8.1 per cent of GDP)**. > > For the UK, was a deficit of £41.5 billion **(2.2 per cent of GDP)** > > Net Fiscal Balance 2015-16 > > This is the difference between total revenue and total public sector expenditure including capital investment. The net fiscal balance: > > Excluding North Sea revenue, was a deficit of £14.9 billion (10.1 per cent of GDP). > > Including an illustrative geographic share of North Sea revenue, was a deficit of £14.8 billion **(9.5 per cent of GDP)**. > > For the UK, was a deficit of £75.3 billion **(4.0 per cent of GDP)**. My bolding. The two things that jump out from this: 1. North Sea Oil revenues are now utterly insignificant - the figures including them are virtually the same as those excluding them. (They have fallen by 99.9%!) 2. Scotland spends more on public services than it collects in revenues, and does so to a greater extent than the UK on the whole does. An independent Scotland will have the power to alter these figures, of course. It can do so by: 1. Increasing revenue through raising taxes, duties, etc. 2. Cutting public services to reduce spending to match revenues. 3. Running a deficit and building up debt. For me, the SNPs proposals for how it is going to approach this problem are going to weigh very heavily. If it’s a re-run of last time’s unfounded optimism, it’ll be very hard to decide that independence is best for Scotland. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 9:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/37 "2017-03-14T09:54:11Z")
Which is the same as denying it practically. Cause, if she decides to delay it till after Brexit settlement is done and dusted or follows the 2012 Cameron precedent (“until you get a mandate in an election”) the result is the same. ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 9:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/38 "2017-03-14T09:56:21Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Scotland is not a financial basketcase for the same reason as a free spending 16 year old girl is not one. > Plus current estimates of Scottish GDP or GDP per capita are useless. A lot of business is based in or operates in Scotland because it is an integral part of the United Kingdom. Business who would be far less concerned with remaining if Scotland leaves. > > -Do you think the Shipyards on the Clyde will still be able to count on Royal Navy orders for ships and submarines? Or The aerospace jobs that BaE or Rolls Royce provide will stay? > > -As for Oil, having to sell in the International market will not necessarily provide the same jobs as when their was a guaranteed market, i.e the entire United Kingdom > > -Banking and Financial Services will not necessarily stay in a small N European country as opposed to being inside the UK. Thanks for this, you posted something of what I wanted to say. I believe Scotland’s current GDP figures are probably somewhat misleading. I think it very difficult to find a truly unbiased source on the matter. If Scotland’s economy is not a basketcase then it’s only one of two sectors having a lean time away from being a basketcase, although the same can admittedly be said of a number of countries. I do believe that a lot of the Independence movement is not in fact Nationalist driven but Social Democracy driven; us Scots still think we can be a progressive, high state spending country. I believe Scotland’s ability to spend big is now over. Instead of state spending increasing I fear it will become downsized after independence. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 9:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/39 "2017-03-14T09:57:37Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > That’s hardly news and by no means indicates a hard Brexit - however you define that. We leave the single market perforce by leaving the EU. No, we don’t! Who told you that? Who told them? 6 months ago there was a lot of talk about the Norway option and EFTA. When did that option come off the table, and who took it off? The people who are continually insisting to you that the only way to Brexit is the hard way are lying to you, Quartz. There were many paths to Brexit and we are ignoring all but the most drastic. That is a policy choice that could have been made differently. Regardless of the wisdom of that decision in itself, May’s disregard for the impact of that choice on the Union is having its own highly predictable effect now. ---
**Author:** ![Lyonessite](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ecccb3/32.png) [@Lyonessite](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lyonessite)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 9:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/40 "2017-03-14T09:58:05Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Which is the same as denying it practically. Cause, if she decides to delay it till after Brexit settlement is done and dusted or follows the 2012 Cameron precedent (“until you get a mandate in an election”) the result is the same. There is a mandate from the 2016 election. Scotland has no problem with a semi-detached relationship with Europe, maintaining the single market membership and the customs union. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081.md?page=3)