# Scotland Independence Referendum Mk2 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 13, 2017, 12:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081 "2017-03-13T12:04:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 8:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/141 "2017-03-15T08:37:12Z")
This may be of interest. [BBC](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39265997): > [@](#): > > **Scottish independence support ‘at highest ever level’** > > Support for Scottish independence is at its highest-ever level, according to an academic study. > > But the Scottish Social Attitudes survey also suggested the popularity of the European Union has fallen. > > The researchers said this suggested focusing on EU membership may not be the best way to swing more voters towards independence. > > Asked to choose between independence, devolution and not having any kind of Scottish Parliament at all, 46% of the 1,237 people surveyed between July and December of last year now back independence. > > This is a higher level of support for independence than at any time since 1999 and double the level registered by ScotCen in 2012, when the last independence referendum campaign initially got under way. > > As a result, there is now a very large age gap in support for independence, with 72% of 16-24 year olds wanting to leave the UK compared with just 26% of people aged 65 and over. > > Independence is now the single most popular constitutional option, with 42% supporting devolution, while only 8% of those surveyed do not want any kind of Scottish Parliament at all. > > However, even although Scotland voted to remain in the EU by 62% to 38% in last year’s referendum, the survey suggested scepticism about the institution is now at the highest level ever recorded by ScotCen. > > Two in three (67%) either want Britain to leave the EU (25%) or for the EU’s powers to be reduced (42%). > > In 2014, the figure stood at just over half (53%), while in 1999 only 40% of people in Scotland could be considered Eurosceptic. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 8:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/142 "2017-03-15T08:43:38Z")
So, Sturgeon is proposing an independence referendum with the proposal to try and stay in the EU/return to it; to an electorate which is now pro-independence and increasingly Euro-skeptical? Less Stirling Bridge more Culloden. ---
**Author:** ![Lyonessite](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ecccb3/32.png) [@Lyonessite](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lyonessite)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 8:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/143 "2017-03-15T08:49:41Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > This may be of interest. [BBC](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39265997): Wanting a reduction in European powers (I would like more subsidiarityand a narrower interpretation of non economic powers) does not make one a “Eurosceptic” but a thinking rational human being! I want less power at Westminster and Holyrood; that does not make me a "Democratic sceptic.! ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 9:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/144 "2017-03-15T09:58:30Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > This may be of interest. [BBC](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39265997): YouGov have a good analysis of how the Leave/Remain No/Yes interaction is affecting polling [here](https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/27/why-have-polls-not-shown-shift-towards-scottish-in/). But also, these data are from a survey ending December. A more recent YouGov poll for the Times ([non-paywall link](http://www.cityam.com/260948/blow-nicola-sturgeons-independence-referendum-poll-reveals)) is reporting a **57%** majority for staying in the UK - higher than the referendum result. One poll is just one poll, of course, but if that figure is borne out by other polls it will make life very difficult for the SNP. ---
**Author:** ![Lyonessite](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ecccb3/32.png) [@Lyonessite](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lyonessite)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 10:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/145 "2017-03-15T10:35:21Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > YouGov have a good analysis of how the Leave/Remain No/Yes interaction is affecting polling [here](https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/27/why-have-polls-not-shown-shift-towards-scottish-in/). > > But also, these data are from a survey ending December. A more recent YouGov poll for the Times ([non-paywall link](http://www.cityam.com/260948/blow-nicola-sturgeons-independence-referendum-poll-reveals)) is reporting a **57%** majority for staying in the UK - higher than the referendum result. One poll is just one poll, of course, but if that figure is borne out by other polls it will make life very difficult for the SNP. you seem to have cherry picked an outlier. 9–14 Mar 2017 YouGov/The Times 1,028 37% 48% 8–13 Mar 2017 Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 1,019 43% 48% 24 Feb–6 Mar 2017 Ipsos Mori/STV 1,029 47% 46% Additionally the poll you chose omits 16-17 year olds who are 70/30 in favour of Independence. Added to any poll should be the differental attrition rates for 65 plus voters over the next couple of years. Tbat age group was 30/70. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 11:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/146 "2017-03-15T11:56:01Z")
> [@Lyonessite](#): > > you seem to have cherry picked an outlier. I \*\*explicitly \*\*said it was just one poll and shouldn’t be relied on unless other polls backed it up. Spare me the accusations of chicanery. Luckily, What Scotland Thinks run a poll of polls, which can be found [here](http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-a-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-ask#table). ```auto Yes since Jan 17: 43% 43% 44% 41% 47% 37% No since Jan 17: 51% 45% 51% 44% 46% 48% Don't Know : 7% 10% 6% 13% 6% 16% Refused : 0% 3% 0% 2% 1% 0% ``` > [@](#): > > Additionally the poll you chose omits 16-17 year olds who are 70/30 in favour of Independence. Added to any poll should be the differental attrition rates for 65 plus voters over the next couple of years. Tbat age group was 30/70. The point about 16-17 year-olds is an interesting one, but by definition it’s a much smaller group than 65+. And, keen as I am to build independence on the graves of my parents’ generation, I doubt they’ll die off as fast as you hope. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 12:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/147 "2017-03-15T12:00:35Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > I \*\*explicitly \*\*said it was just one poll and shouldn’t be relied on unless other polls backed it up. Spare me the accusations of chicanery. > > Luckily, What Scotland Thinks run a poll of polls, which can be found [here](http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-a-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-ask#table). > > ```auto > > Yes since Jan 17: 43% 43% 44% 41% 47% 37% > No since Jan 17: 51% 45% 51% 44% 46% 48% > Don't Know : 7% 10% 6% 13% 6% 16% > Refused : 0% 3% 0% 2% 1% 0% > > ``` > > The point about 16-17 year-olds is an interesting one, but by definition it’s a much smaller group than 65+. And, keen as I am to build independence on the graves of my parents’ generation, I doubt they’ll die off as fast as you hope. Accusations of chicanery are definitely worse than accusations of actively wishing that old people will die. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 12:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/148 "2017-03-15T12:06:17Z")
> [@Baron\_Greenback](#): > > Hey hey hey, it’s flashback time. Good to see the old gang back together! Two more years of this to go, heh. Also, hiya **Pjen** , if you are still reading the boards. Hope you are well. Yes, it’s a heady rush of nostalgia - this is why Hollywood loves remakes. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 12:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/149 "2017-03-15T12:09:13Z")
> [@Ludovic](#): > > Accusations of chicanery are definitely worse than accusations of actively wishing that old people will die. If “differential attrition rates for 65+ voters over the next couple of years” meant anything other than that the No vote would be eroded by the deaths of the elderly, I will fully and humbly apologise. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 12:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/150 "2017-03-15T12:12:01Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > If “differential attrition rates for 65+ voters over the next couple of years” meant anything other than that the No vote would be eroded by the deaths of the elderly, I will fully and humbly apologise. Adding in attrition rates and noting theri voting affect as a side effect is different from saying “gee, I hope _more_ old people will die because their deaths will be more than worth it for the votes”. I could also be wrong on that and could be corrected. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 12:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/151 "2017-03-15T12:15:49Z")
> [@Ludovic](#): > > Adding in attrition rates and noting theri voting affect as a side effect is different from saying “gee, I hope _more_ old people will die because their deaths will be more than worth it for the votes”. I could also be wrong on that and could be corrected. No, you’re right. “Hope” was an unfair word to use, and I do apologise wholeheartedly to Lyonessite for doing so. ---
**Author:** ![Evan\_Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/b487fb/32.png) [@Evan\_Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evan_Drake)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/152 "2017-03-15T15:23:36Z")
> [@Lyonessite](#): > > It seems strange that denial of citizenship was not used by Project Fear in 2014. They threatened everything else! There is no suggestion from competent sources that any petson or body has suggesyed that citizenship would be withdrawn after Independence- unless you can provide a cite. Perhaps because every rational voter understood that Scots would be either UK Citizens, ‘As you were’, or fully independent Scottish citizens, depending on the outcome. Ir’s a binary choice. However, in line with SNP policy I propose this become a permanent fixture: every three years, Scotland can vote whether to stay with the UK, be fully independent, rejoin the UK, leave the EU, join the EU, etc. etc. with all the get all excited, roll on the ground, howl at the moon dementia of nationalist fury; and the grim tedium of politics wonks blogging and issuing economic papers like nobody’s business. It can be like a tri-annual carnival with endless polls and predictions. The great thing is — according to nationalist logic — no result is ever finally binding: don’t like the result ? Try, try, and try again ! With added tears and accusations of betrayal and hatefulness ! Free whisky in all the pubs ! A Smoke-Free atmosphere ! An Our Wullie & The Broons Scotland Forever ! ---
**Author:** ![Lyonessite](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ecccb3/32.png) [@Lyonessite](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lyonessite)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/153 "2017-03-15T16:31:45Z")
> [@Evan\_Drake](#): > > Perhaps because every rational voter understood that Scots would be either UK Citizens, ‘As you were’, or fully independent Scottish citizens, depending on the outcome. > > Ir’s a binary choice. > > However, in line with SNP policy I propose this become a permanent fixture: every three years, Scotland can vote whether to stay with the UK, be fully independent, rejoin the UK, leave the EU, join the EU, etc. etc. with all the get all excited, roll on the ground, howl at the moon dementia of nationalist fury; and the grim tedium of politics wonks blogging and issuing economic papers like nobody’s business. It can be like a tri-annual carnival with endless polls and predictions. > > The great thing is — according to nationalist logic — no result is ever finally binding: don’t like the result ? Try, try, and try again ! With added tears and accusations of betrayal and hatefulness ! Free whisky in all the pubs ! A Smoke-Free atmosphere ! An Our Wullie & The Broons Scotland Forever ! What is a “Scot”? What is a “Brit”? Would Billy Connoly and Sean Connery be stripped of their Passports? Michael Gove and Liam Fox? Gordon Ramsay? Peter Capaldi? John Barrowman? Mark Knopfler? Tony Blair? Nicki Campbell? John Leslie? Tom Kitchin? Paul Rankin? Alex Ferguson? Armando Ianucci? Iain Duncan Smith? Yvette Cooper? ---
**Author:** ![Lyonessite](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ecccb3/32.png) [@Lyonessite](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lyonessite)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/154 "2017-03-15T17:00:00Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > No, you’re right. “Hope” was an unfair word to use, and I do apologise wholeheartedly to Lyonessite for doing so. No problem. I did not even see it before you apologsed! I could have chosen better words. ---
**Author:** ![Evan\_Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/b487fb/32.png) [@Evan\_Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evan_Drake)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/155 "2017-03-15T21:40:02Z")
> [@Lyonessite](#): > > What is a “Scot”? What is a “Brit”? Not a lot of point in breaking away then. > [@](#): > > Would Billy Connoly and Sean Connery be stripped of their Passports? Michael Gove and Liam Fox? Gordon Ramsay? Peter Capaldi? John Barrowman? Mark Knopfler? Tony Blair? Nicki Campbell? John Leslie? Tom Kitchin? Paul Rankin? Alex Ferguson? Armando Ianucci? Iain Duncan Smith? Yvette Cooper? They would be ‘stripped’ of their individual passports if they individually _choose_ to belong to a different nation. All their rights and benefits would be administered by the nation they choose to be a citizen of. There is no point in splitting into two adjacent nation-states if the rebels demand to continue as citizens of the state they voluntarily left. You can definitely keep Iain Duncan Smith, though. ---
**Author:** ![UDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecae2f/32.png) [@UDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2017, 1:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/156 "2017-03-16T01:04:42Z")
> [@Lyonessite](#): > > It seems strange that denial of citizenship was not used by Project Fear in 2014. They threatened everything else! There is no suggestion from competent sources that any petson or body has suggesyed that citizenship would be withdrawn after Independence- unless you can provide a cite. I’ve never suggested that the UK would withdraw British citizenship from the Scots in the event of independence. I very much doubt that they would. I’m not going to provide a cite to the contrary, because there isn’t one (so far as I know); the UK government has not said how it would modify British nationality law in the event of Scottish independence. I came into this thread to object to the claim that they couldn’t do so because the Convention against Statelessness forbids it (it wouldn’t, so long as Scottish citizenship was conferred on the people concerned, which seems to be the intention) or that past precedent shows that the UK government doesn’t do this (on the contrary, past precedent shows that they generally do). > [@Lyonessite](#): > > There is also the problem that if such people were excluded, they would still have the right to claim Brrtish citizenship because of their parentage by other British citizens- any person no matter where they were born is eligible to become a British citizen with full residence rights just by parents. Very few Scots do not have parents who were not British citizens. Again, if past precedents were to be followed, the position would be that Scots people could claim British citizenship on the basis having a parent _born in rump UK_. While that would include many Scots people, it wouldn’t include them all. And of course UK citizenship acquired in this way would not itself be heritable unless the citizens concerned settled in rump UK and begat their children there. > [@Lyonessite](#): > > I am at this point bailing on this particular debate until a supportive cite is provided by someone. I have provided the reference to the UN Convention to which we are party that stops us creating stateless persons. Which is a huge, giant, enormous red herring. Nobody - except you - has suggested that British citizenship could conceivably be withdrawn from anybody who was not conferred with Scottish citizenship. ---
**Author:** ![UDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecae2f/32.png) [@UDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2017, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/157 "2017-03-16T01:13:51Z")
> [@Evan\_Drake](#): > > They would be ‘stripped’ of their individual passports if they individually _choose_ to belong to a different nation. All their rights and benefits would be administered by the nation they choose to be a citizen of. There is no point in splitting into two adjacent nation-states if the rebels demand to continue as citizens of the state they voluntarily left. Not necessarily. As already pointed out, if past precedents are followed, those whose British citizenship arises out of their connection with Scotland (birth in Scotland/residence in Scotland) would lose British citizenship (and acquire Scots citizenship). To retain British citizenship they’d need to point to a connection with rump UK (a parent born in rump UK; they themselves settled in rump UK; that kind of thing). In that situation they wouldn’t be required to choose between British citizenship and Scottish citizenship; they could have both. ---
**Author:** ![Lyonessite](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ecccb3/32.png) [@Lyonessite](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lyonessite)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2017, 1:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/158 "2017-03-16T01:52:43Z")
> [@Evan\_Drake](#): > > Not a lot of point in breaking away then. > > They would be ‘stripped’ of their individual passports if they individually _choose_ to belong to a different nation. All their rights and benefits would be administered by the nation they choose to be a citizen of. There is no point in splitting into two adjacent nation-states if the rebels demand to continue as citizens of the state they voluntarily left. > > You can definitely keep Iain Duncan Smith, though. You do not understand jus solis, jus parentis and citizenship in general. Until you find a politican or commentator that thinks your idea will happen, I am finished. ---
**Author:** ![Lyonessite](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ecccb3/32.png) [@Lyonessite](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lyonessite)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2017, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/159 "2017-03-16T01:54:27Z")
> [@UDS](#): > > Not necessarily. As already pointed out, if past precedents are followed, those whose British citizenship arises out of their connection with Scotland (birth in Scotland/residence in Scotland) would lose British citizenship (and acquire Scots citizenship). To retain British citizenship they’d need to point to a connection with rump UK (a parent born in rump UK; they themselves settled in rump UK; that kind of thing). In that situation they wouldn’t be required to choose between British citizenship and Scottish citizenship; they could have both. The obvious past precedanrt is Ireland. I am out of this until you produce some evidence for your idea! ---
**Author:** ![Lyonessite](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ecccb3/32.png) [@Lyonessite](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lyonessite)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2017, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081/160 "2017-03-16T01:59:29Z")
:rolleyes: > [@UDS](#): > > Which is a huge, giant, enormous red herring. Nobody - except you - has suggested that British citizenship could conceivably be withdrawn from anybody who was not conferred with Scottish citizenship. Scottish futire citozenship would be offered, not ‘conferred’ Accepting it would be voluntary. If not accepted people would retain their British Passports to avoid being made stateless. If tbey did take Scottish citizenship, there is no bar to joint ctizenship and the government would have little way of discovering who had which passport. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotland-independence-referendum-mk2/782081.md?page=9)