It’s been pointed out that there are three named officers of the SNP on teh accounts submitted to the Electoral Commission:
Peter Murrell
Colin Beattie
Nicola Sturgeon.
Spot the odd one out.
As a general point, its a common police technique when investigating multiple suspects to attempt to get one of them to provide evidence against the others. In cases where one suspect is the spouse of the other, there is a strong incentive for them not to incriminate one another. Should there be a third party not bound by the ties of matrimony, they will not share that incentive.
In the meantime, someoen needs to give Humza Yousaf a hug.
It has been a tough three weeks. He has not helped himself with his habit of drip-feeding news day by day, often while commenting on the story launched by yesterday’s comment on the day before’s story (see, for example, the gradual revelations about the resigning auditors).
But today was going to the be the big reset. A set piece speech - which is happening right now - in which he would lay out his vision for Scotland and turn attention away from the tawdry revelations about auditors and camper vans. Quite what went through his head when he read about Beattie’s arrest this morning can only be imagined, but I doubt it added to his joie de vivre.
He has, however, given another unintentionally funny press conference, full of lines like “Of course I’m surprised when one of my colleagues gets arrested”, “I’ll have to speak to him but he’s still talking to the police”, and “I don’t believe the SNP is a criminal organisation”. The faint chuckling sound you can hear is the ghost of LBJ, who famously loved to hear politicians denying accusations.
There are of course, some SNP members who don’t think that’s a joke. But at time like this, “It’s all a big conspiracy by our powerful enemies, jealous of our many successes” is a much more comforting explanation than “We’re definitely woefully incompetent and also possibly corrupt”.
And of course there may be valid reasons for timing such high profile arrests for when attention is elsewhere.
As long as the police are not seeking to make a political point and are acting in line with the evidence then that’s probably fine.
But you are suggesting that a political party might try to imply malicious behaviour on the part of their perceived enemies…Such cynicism.
The bind the police are in is that this cuts both ways. If they had had grounds to arrest Beattie but delayed simply because they wanted to be sure Yousaf had the media’s full attention then that is also interfering in politics.
What should be happening is that the timing of arrests is being based purely on the progress of the investigation without regard either way to what it will mean for political headlines. Given this is a high profile case - the highest - I would hope/suspect that the police are making triply sure their processes are unimpeachable. Including the timing of arrest decisions.
I agree absolutely, mine was more referring to the practical rather than the political.
In high profile cases It might be better for both the police and the person arrested for that to happen without journalists and photographers on the doorstep and I wouldn’t necessarily have a problem with that.
Just seen this interesting spot, which makes things look really very clear cut indeed.
Quick recap: the issue at hand is the SNP’s launch of a referendum fighting fund, donors to which were explicitly told that their money would be used only to fight a new referendum. It launched in 2017, before the June election.
I was just thinking the other day that if the police didn’t make an arrest soon they’d start to look foolish.
If you’re asking yourself, did Humza Yousaf drop a massive hostage to fortune just two days ago by pointing to Boris’s shenanigans as evidence of how much cleaner Scottish politics was, then I’m happy to tell you that yes, yes he did.
Good analysis of the link between Sturgeon’s incredible success as FM and the current situation here (may be registration walled)
The most effective politicians always manage to create a reality distortion field around them, and Sturgeon was no different. The halo even managed to outlive her time in office: her sudden resignation as first minister was depicted by many commentators as a refreshing change, rather than, as was obvious even then, the act of a politician whose project was running out of road and whose party was increasingly ungovernable.
Her husband, Peter Murrell, the party’s CEO since 1999, remained in charge throughout her leadership. Across the western world, more and more high-powered people have spouses who are high-powered in their own right but vanishingly few of them would be able to persuade a board of directors or their shareholders to accept such a close level of proximity outside a family firm, and rightly so. Yet this close relationship was treated by the party as just another well-connected couple. This remained the case even when the organisation’s treasurer resigned stating he had not “received the support or financial information” to do the role and was replaced by his predecessor. None of this is normal and all of it is so far from best practice that it would take a rocket ship to reach it. It is a measure of Sturgeon’s political abilities that it took an arrest and a police tent in a garden for the situation to be widely questioned.
So, how does the SNP handle the arrest of its former and at least until recently formidably popular leader?
We could look at precedent. As with any party, from time to time allegations are made against SNP MPs and MSPs. Does the party stick with them until actual proof of guilt emerges, or does it kick them out the sanctum to maintain a pristine reputation?
Under Sturgeon, very much the latter. There are a number of SNP politicians who “chose to resign the whip” at the first sign of allegations - including some never arrested who were later brought back into the fold, but who are very clear about the principles in play and who enforced them. (Even if they are less clear on how to take a screenshot).
But that was then! Under Yousaf, a more generous approach is the order of the day. A three stage process is clearly in place, designed to let the investigatee know they are still one of the elect. These are presented in an order that is both chronological and increasingly hilarious.
Announce that you won’t be suspending them, and in fact are still taking their advice on how to run Scotland.
Get all the MSPs to publicly buy her a bunch of flowers
This is going beyond loyalty and into real “nail your goolies to the mast” territory. This will obviously blow up badly if Sturgeon is ever charged, tried and convicted, but even a trial of her husband or the treasurer who got his collar felt could easily bring up enough stuff that falls into the “not illegal but a long way from actually fine” category - in which case Yousaf will either have to pull off the mother of all reverse-ferrets or spend more time with his family.
Speaking in generalities because I lack the knowledge to offer specifics …
To the degree the party is really a creature of Sturgeon’s making and a mere extension of her persona, it may not survive her departure. Or at least that’s Yousef’s fear. Of course they said the same of Alexander Salmond and it was far more he than she who built the SNP and despite that SNP thrived for quite a while post-Salmond.
Separate idea:
Although the first rule of problem solving is “When in a hole, quit digging”, very often in politics the first instinct is “When trouble emerges bury it as quickly and thoroughly as possible, even after the burying itself has become politically troublesome.” It’s the “even after” part that so often kills politicians. And its shear commonality is evidence of how much typical politicians’ thinking is dominated by an ego-based overweening belief that unlike everyone else, they’ll certainly succeed where others have so often failed.
Well quite! I was struck by the tone taken by the SNP regarding the actual arrest of Sturgeon vs that taken in response to allegations against previous SNP members and indeed other political figures.
Funny thing integrity and consistency isn’t it? “Useless” might think he can slip this past the electorate but in my experience people sniff out such hypocrisy very easily indeed.
There’s a real apres moi le deluge feel here. The difference between the Salmond–>Sturgeon transition and the Sturgeon–>Yousaf one is that Salmond, while very much a cult of personality leader, had an inner circle and indeed Sturgeon (and her husband) were significant players in it. So as successor she knew both what levers to pull and where the bodies were buried. Sturgeon’s error was to go it alone too much - she relied closely on civil servants and SNP officials, but she didn’t have a close knit group of elected members around her and therefore didn’t have a polished and groomed successor. (All monarchies are ultimately judged on the succession, discuss.)
When Salmond came under public investigation, it didn’t take long for him to be jettisoned because Sturgeon wasn’t dependent on him. Yousaf doesn’t have people around him and by his own account is still reliant on her for guidance - which is both weak and incredibly poor judgement. There are numerous factions seething under the lid Sturgeon and Salmond put on the SNP, and if Yousaf can’t keep the pressure on, it will all boil over very quickly.
As I saw someone point out in a different context, a really important factor driving this is that: politicians do win a lot! If they hadn’t, they’d be ex-politicians, by definition. They’ve all won at least on election, every Minister has beaten their rivals to be appointed, every leader has won a contest and also, so far, stayed on top of their opposition and their rivals. So they do in fact have a lot of evidence for the proposition “I’m a winner who wins things, losing is what other people do.” Until one day…
Sturgeon won eight elections. If she felt untouchable, it was because for a long time no one could touch her.
It’s a big bet. If the police investigation collapses he can claim the virtues of good judgement and loyalty. But if not… Personally I think the upsides are dwarved by the downsides, but I guess he’s feeling pretty confident.
