# Scotland's referendum on Independence 18 Sept 2014 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 21, 2014, 12:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356 "2014-01-21T12:11:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 26
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/501 "2014-08-13T13:06:39Z")
Given that the UK is part of the EU now and there are no guarantees from the EU that Scotland would get membership, saying Scotland would be in the EU and the UK might not has it sort of backwards. I also dont know that Scotland really has much more of a communalist and social welfare legacy than England. Universal education started earlier in Scotland than England, thanks largely to the Presbyterian ibsistance that everyone should be able to read the bible, but generally, the social welfare state developed around the sane time in both places. And historically, things like the Highland Clearances don’t show some great communitarian spirit. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/502 "2014-08-13T16:11:50Z")
> [@Captain\_Amazing](#): > > Given that the UK is part of the EU now and there are no guarantees from the EU that Scotland would get membership, saying Scotland would be in the EU and the UK might not has it sort of backwards. I also dont know that Scotland really has much more of a communalist and social welfare legacy than England. Universal education started earlier in Scotland than England, thanks largely to the Presbyterian ibsistance that everyone should be able to read the bible, but generally, the social welfare state developed around the sane time in both places. And historically, things like the Highland Clearances don’t show some great communitarian spirit. Membership matters little. All Scots would have the right to move freely in the EU or live and work there as British citizens. Even if immediate full membership was not possible, there is no way the EU would suddenly erect tariff barriers against them as many companies are based in bothe Scotland and the rest of the UK- Hewlett Packard, BAE Systems and many more. Eventually Scotland would be admitted to full membership (maybe as the UK votes for exit- and if that happened anyway after a NO vote, I would predict a second referendum in order that Scotland could stay in the EU- we are quite communitaire up here.) Highland clearances were a long time ago and were the gentry versus the masses. Do you live in Scotland? On virtually every social measure Scotland is more communitarian than England- little anti-immigrant feeling (there was a near riot in Glasgow when the council tried to evict asylum seekers- a riot by the other people living in the area, supporting the victims!). We elect Governments that do not wish to privatise the NHS or other public services, there is widespread support for the living wage and for welfare benefits to continue to allow people to live with dignity. Education is free from the class wars common in England between Grammar Schools and Comprehensives- there are few 'league table problems and no sink schools, and teachers are paid more than in England as are Nurses! Taking kids out of school for holidays is allowed with a frown, but no fines or criminal records. As I say- do you actually live here or are you advising from outside? ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/503 "2014-08-13T16:20:52Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > Well, now you have come out as a died in the wool Tory, I can understand your views. > > Some renewables such as windfarms are doubtful, but Hydro (which Scotland has a considerable amount of reality and potentiality) and potential supply of expensive water if global warming continues to bring drought to England and other more southern countries comes into the equation. > > I am probably older than you and can remember the MacMillan, Home and Heath Governments when the Tories were considerably to the left of the current Labour Party. Things change over the generations and are difficult to predict. Each nation needs to take its chance. With the security of being part of the EU (which Scotland will be and rump UK may not) adds more certainty of economic survival. > > Here is The Economist predicting defeat for the SNP six months before their biggest ever triumph in 2011. > > [Dismantling the welfare state](http://www.economist.com/node/16889694) Sorry, I thought you were linking the cutting of corporation tax with industrial re-surgence. If so, you yourself have some Tory leanings, or if not Tory then right wing economic leanings. Things are not so difficult to predict. Democratic governments spend more than they take in. Politicians promise the earth. Electorates vote for whoever spends money on them(until the bills come in that is). This stuff is not rocket science. Its happened in almost every industrial nation since WW2. A Scottish Government will be no different. The MacMillan government was more left wing that the current Labour Party? In some instances, yes. In the major instance, no. The Left wing MacMillan Government spent around 35% of UK GDP. Today’s nasty right wing Tories would love to get Govt spending down to 35%. Even with all those nasty Thatcherite policies the money grubbing State has still managed to enlarge itself. The more things change the more they stay the same. What will not happen is a Scottish State that voluntarily reduces itself in size. That will only occur when our money runs out. Earlier you were predicting Scotland would never vote for a Right Wing Government(or words to that effect). Was this a prediction on your part? Something you are now saying _is_ unpredictable _was_ predictable a few posts back. In fact your words were " **Given the electorate and the electoral system, Scotland would never have a majority rightist government"**. Will a non rightist government ever voluntarily reduce public spening? I think not. Scotland will not vote for such a government for quite some time yet. Which is why I believe my scenario will almost certainly play out - an enlarged State promising the earth to its voters. ---
**Author:** ![notquitekarpov](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/71c47a/32.png) [@notquitekarpov](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/notquitekarpov)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/504 "2014-08-13T16:32:32Z")
Very surprised \*\*Pjen \*\*you think Scotland has little anti-immigrant feeling. You may be right if you are talking anti-Polish or whatever (but then there is little in the rest of the UK either) but if this is shorthand for less racist then I’ll have to take issue with you. I’m white but came up to Scotland from London eight years ago and I was shocked then and remain shocked now how casually racist Scottish society is. Continually I am wincing at the stuff folk say up here without a second thought. Perhaps London is the exception, but I was bought up in the South-East and have lived in Cardiff too and I would say both of those are remarkably less racist than what I see in Scotland. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/505 "2014-08-13T19:56:03Z")
And the SNP [have been caught](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11026966/Eye-catching-Alex-Salmond-independence-claim-was-based-on-no-economic-modelling.html) basing economic claims on wishful thinking. ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/506 "2014-08-13T20:52:09Z")
> [@notquitekarpov](#): > > I’m white but came up to Scotland from London eight years ago and I was shocked then and remain shocked now how casually racist Scottish society is. Continually I am wincing at the stuff folk say up here without a second thought. I agree with this, and I’ve lived in Scotland all my life. I think it is often the unthinking racism of people who live somewhere that isn’t very racially diverse. ---
**Author:** ![Bozuit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/edb3f5/32.png) [@Bozuit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bozuit)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/507 "2014-08-13T22:02:35Z")
There’s a [new debate](http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/13/second-scottish-independence-debate-live-uk-bbc-alistair-darling-alex-salmond) between Salmond and Darling planned for 25th August now. Fortunately, it will be on the BBC, so those of us outside Scotland will get to watch it on TV. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 5:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/508 "2014-08-14T05:53:54Z")
> [@Baron\_Greenback](#): > > I agree with this, and I’ve lived in Scotland all my life. I think it is often the unthinking racism of people who live somewhere that isn’t very racially diverse. There is unthinking stupid racism, but what is missing is any level of support for any racist party. NF, BNP, and others have never attracted support in Scotland. Similarly there is minimal support for the anti-immigrant policies of UKIP. ---
**Author:** ![Busy\_Scissors](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/d78d45/32.png) [@Busy\_Scissors](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Busy_Scissors)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 8:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/509 "2014-08-14T08:37:00Z")
The Scottish electorate’s hatred for the Tories does not mean that it is naturally left wing - that is a false equivalence that becomes pretty clear if you spend time there (particularly away from the central belt). A hypothetical centre right party not named the Tories could do very well in Scotland. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 8:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/510 "2014-08-14T08:45:03Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > There is unthinking stupid racism, but what is missing is any level of support for any racist party. NF, BNP, and others have never attracted support in Scotland. Could that be because the Scottish racists join the SNP? Plus, anti-English racism is where it’s at. > [@](#): > > Similarly there is minimal support for the anti-immigrant policies of UKIP. Not true: there was enough support for UKIP to elect one UKIP MEP. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 8:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/511 "2014-08-14T08:47:12Z")
There was a debate in Inverness on Tuesday. Details - including video coverage - are [here](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-28761667). ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 10:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/512 "2014-08-14T10:09:42Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Could that be because the Scottish racists join the SNP? Plus, anti-English racism is where it’s at. > > Not true: there was enough support for UKIP to elect one UKIP MEP. And how many were elected in England? There are far fewer political racists in Scotland. Racist parties do very badly in polls; xenophobic parties do almost as badly. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 10:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/513 "2014-08-14T10:20:34Z")
Not entirely equivalent but indicative: UK election 2010 BNP 1.9% UKIP 3.1% Scottish election 2011 BNP .78 UKIP .91 Note that Scottish results inflate small parties as there are seats to be won using PR. There is no evidence that the SNP attracts any more racists than any other party. ---
**Author:** ![Bozuit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/edb3f5/32.png) [@Bozuit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bozuit)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 11:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/514 "2014-08-14T11:11:59Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > There is unthinking stupid racism, but what is missing is any level of support for any racist party. NF, BNP, and others have never attracted support in Scotland. Similarly there is minimal support for the anti-immigrant policies of UKIP. I wouldn’t say UKIP and the SNP are much alike, but I suspect a lot of people vote for them for very similar reasons. How much support exists in Scotland for left-wing parties simply because a) there’s only one party offering Scottish nationalism and it’s on the left, and b) there’s a narrative that Scotland = left-wing, England = right-wing? In a similar way, many UKIP voters don’t appear particularly attached to a lot of right-wing ideas - UKIP has promised a patchwork of policies from all over the political spectrum, and many people who vote for them just want to get out of the EU. In Scotland, are the Tories hated because of their policies, or are their policies hated because they’re the Tories’? I doubt the explanation is quite so simple as a strong egalitarian spirit in the heart of every Scotsman. And, to be honest, I think you’re exaggerating the size and significance of English votes for the NF, BNP and UKIP, and downplaying the support the right gets in Scotland. This [recent article](http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/05/scotching-a-myth-scotland-is-not-as-left-wing-as-you-think-it-is/http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/05/scotching-a-myth-scotland-is-not-as-left-wing-as-you-think-it-is/) is interesting and even comes with a handy graph. It is from the Spectator, though, so you may need a tiny pinch of salt. > [@](#): > > The poll, in which Survation asked 1003 Scots for their views, also confirms another truth Scotland’s blethering classes prefer to deny: this is a much more right-wing country than it is thought to be. > > True, Scots are more likely than other Britons to identify with the left but when it comes to actual individual policies they are much closer to the British average than is commonly presumed. Nice, kind, progressive Scotland is a myth as cherished as it is, well, mythical. Clear majorities of Scots favour tougher immigration controls and tougher welfare policies. Even in Glasgow, 47 per cent of poll respondents support workfare programmes. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 11:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/515 "2014-08-14T11:44:45Z")
> [@Bozuit](#): > > This [recent article](http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/05/scotching-a-myth-scotland-is-not-as-left-wing-as-you-think-it-is/http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/05/scotching-a-myth-scotland-is-not-as-left-wing-as-you-think-it-is/) is interesting and even comes with a handy graph. It is from the Spectator, though, so you may need a tiny pinch of salt. Page not found? ---
**Author:** ![Bozuit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/edb3f5/32.png) [@Bozuit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bozuit)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 11:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/516 "2014-08-14T11:57:50Z")
Oops, I must have pasted the link twice. Here it is: [http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/05/scotching-a-myth-scotland-is-not-as-left-wing-as-you-think-it-is/](http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/05/scotching-a-myth-scotland-is-not-as-left-wing-as-you-think-it-is/) ---
**Author:** ![LC\_Strawhouse](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e19adc/32.png) [@LC\_Strawhouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LC_Strawhouse)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/517 "2014-08-14T15:12:16Z")
I’d maintain that Scottish elites are not the slightest bit left-wing, and the fact that there’s some highly visible left-wing activity in some urban centers is a complete red herring. I’ve already mentioned the positively medieval land ownership patterns, as well as historical acts like the Highland Clearances. And according to [this article](http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-22976909), which also reports that “Scotland’s wealthiest households are 273-times better off than the most deprived”, > [@](#): > > Stigmatisation through media and political rhetoric adds to individuals’ sense of anguish and isolation. They, not society, nor the economy, are blamed for their poverty. Meanwhile, pressures to consume abound in a culture that elevates status and image above relationships, community contribution or care for the environment. Of course, some find ways to blame all of this on the English, but my crystal ball says that an independent Scotland would turn into a grim little playground for the wealthiest Scots. ---
**Author:** ![amanset](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/8dc957/32.png) [@amanset](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amanset)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/518 "2014-08-14T15:37:09Z")
> [@Baron\_Greenback](#): > > This was a really stupid thing for me to say. Sorry about that **amanset** , and also the other English Dopers who stay in Scotland. I really must learn not to extrapolate from my own limited experience. ☹ No worries. I kind of forgot about this thread as I don’t come into the Elections forum much. ---
**Author:** ![amanset](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/8dc957/32.png) [@amanset](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amanset)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/519 "2014-08-14T16:01:18Z")
> [@Baron\_Greenback](#): > > I agree with this, and I’ve lived in Scotland all my life. I think it is often the unthinking racism of people who live somewhere that isn’t very racially diverse. Although I should just point this out, seeing as you said that you “really must learn not to extrapolate from my own limited experience”, thus implying that your “limited experience” was of little anti-England racism. Much like how people think little of being anti-ginger (I am one, I am very well aware of how people casually use it as an insult or worse), I’d argue that many in Scotland think little of being anti-English. I mean, like gingerism isn’t prejudice, being anti-English isn’t _really_ racist, is it? ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/520 "2014-08-14T16:07:52Z")
> [@Bozuit](#): > > Oops, I must have pasted the link twice. > > Here it is: [http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/05/scotching-a-myth-scotland-is-not-as-left-wing-as-you-think-it-is/](http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/05/scotching-a-myth-scotland-is-not-as-left-wing-as-you-think-it-is/) Interesting. I passed this by a Scot friend of mine and his view concurs: > [@](#): > > Absolutely true. Scotland is a hell of a lot more conservative (emphasis on small c there) than you’d think given the almost total dominance of Centre-Left parties in Holyrood and amongst Scottish MPs at Westminster. The findings in the article are no surprise. As the Conservative Party is still (and probably always will be) a toxic brand in Scotland you get most natural tories voting either SNP or Lib Dem as an alternative to Labour. You’ll even get some guys who are fairly conservative voting Labour if they’re of a particularly unionist/anti-nat bent. > > Take a look Aberdeenshire for example. It’s a combination of rural/agriculural land (which is certainly Tory country usually - at least in England) while the city is thriving with very low unemployment and obviously the centre of the Oil Industry. If this were an English region you’d expect it to be dominated by the Tories. However, here the SNP dominate with the Tories a distant 2nd (but very well represented by Scottish standards) with the Lib Dems just behind them in 3rd while Labour are basically nowhere to be found - outnumbered by independents and with only 1 seat more than the Greens. > > You also get areas like my own (the Western Isles) which are EXTREMELY conservative culturally and religiously but the Tories usually lose their deposit here. Due to the lack of any acceptable conservative party the voters are usually split between SNP and Labour. > > The Conservative party is viewed as an inherently English entity up here. While the existing Scottish Conservative Party might receive a slight boost post independence - due to it being severed from Tory HQ and the English tories - I’d expect it still to be viewed with suspicion. More likely is either a new party filling the centre-right void or likelier yet (As you’ve said) one of the existing big 3 parties shifting definitely rightwards. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356.md?page=25) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356.md?page=27)