# Scotland's referendum on Independence 18 Sept 2014 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 21, 2014, 12:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356 "2014-01-21T12:11:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 38
**Author:** ![SanVito](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sanvito/32/2805_2.png) [@SanVito](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SanVito)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 8:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/741 "2014-09-18T08:12:55Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > Well, today’s the day. I am terrified of what the result might be. I’m going to declare it’s a ‘no’. Anyone else want to make a prediction? ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 8:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/742 "2014-09-18T08:46:21Z")
> [@SanVito](#): > > I’m going to declare it’s a ‘no’. Anyone else want to make a prediction? I’d like to say no, but it’s too close to call and polls have been wrong before. ---
**Author:** ![Busy\_Scissors](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/d78d45/32.png) [@Busy\_Scissors](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Busy_Scissors)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 9:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/743 "2014-09-18T09:03:20Z")
No for me, 60/40 ish. Suspect the polling is mirroring the last US election in calling it closer than it is in reality. No-voting arlarses will be out ten deep at the polling stations, yes voting 16 yo’s to forget there was something they had to do today. Hope it brings a clear resolution whichever way it goes. ---
**Author:** ![Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt.Ridley_s_Shooting_Party)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 9:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/744 "2014-09-18T09:32:41Z")
Odds of a no vote are shortening again according to the bookmakers and betting exchanges, with some implied probabilities suggesting an 87% chance of a “no” vote (it was ~83% maximum last night). Apparently this has been the biggest political betting event of all time, with more money being staked on the result of this referendum than the last UK and US General Elections combined (around £40 million). “Yes” keep suggesting a lot of previous non-voters could swing this their way, but it seems to me that a lot of those non-voters could also be Scottish Tories who would otherwise not bother voting, knowing the Tories have a cat-in-hell’s chance of being elected in large swathes of Scotland. “No” also hold leads in demographics traditionally known to come out in large numbers: pensioners and women, and amongst those who self-rate as being 10/10 likely to vote, they hold a 5% lead. Still, squeaky bum time though! ---
**Author:** ![Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt.Ridley_s_Shooting_Party)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 9:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/745 "2014-09-18T09:35:39Z")
> [@Busy\_Scissors](#): > > No-voting arlarses will be out ten deep at the polling stations Scouser? ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 10:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/746 "2014-09-18T10:28:20Z")
“Yes” is, by its nature, a more energizing cause than “no.” ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 10:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/747 "2014-09-18T10:29:25Z")
Scotland isn’t going to turn into “Scottinavia” despite what Scots hope. ---
**Author:** ![Crotalus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crotalus/32/41_2.png) [@Crotalus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crotalus)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 11:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/748 "2014-09-18T11:22:18Z")
What time does the voting end, and how quickly are results expected to be known? ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 11:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/749 "2014-09-18T11:22:20Z")
Its being “reported” on social media and elsewhere online that Andy Murray has come out in favour of Yes. However, this cant be reported on tv or radio because it was tweeted after 3am(?). After 3am on polling day such matters cannot be reported. I dont know whats more annoying to me; the fact that Andy Murray’s opinion is thought to matter in the slightest, or the fact that hes tuned into a political toe rag. As I type this someone has just started playing the Bagpipes outside. ---
**Author:** ![amanset](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/8dc957/32.png) [@amanset](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amanset)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 12:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/750 "2014-09-18T12:03:17Z")
A friend of mine works in the English Shop here in Stockholm and so is pretty well connected with English-speaking people. She posted on Facebook today that “Swedish Radio 1 looking for a Scot that likes haggis to go on their talk show at 1500 today. Anyone know anyone?”. Good to know they’re covering the important points. ---
**Author:** ![Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt.Ridley_s_Shooting_Party)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 12:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/751 "2014-09-18T12:06:01Z")
[FTSE 100 is rallying](https://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXFTSE%3AUKX&sq=FTSE&sp=1&ei=7rkaVMCfNIaZwQO94IGoCg). ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 12:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/752 "2014-09-18T12:14:23Z")
> [@Crotalus](#): > > What time does the voting end, and how quickly are results expected to be known? Polls close at 22:00 BST (which is GMT+1). The first results are due around 02:00 - 02:30-ish, but it looks like it’s going to be close, so we may not know until after 06:00. ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 12:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/753 "2014-09-18T12:18:40Z")
> [@Baron\_Greenback](#): > > Polls close at 22:00 BST (which is GMT+1). The first results are due around 02:00 - 02:30-ish, but it looks like it’s going to be close, so we may not know until after 06:00. Exit polls I believe can be published after 10pm. We will have an indication of the vote fairly early; with all the usual caveats surrounding such exit polls. ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 12:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/754 "2014-09-18T12:26:32Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](#): > > Exit polls I believe can be published after 10pm. We will have an indication of the vote fairly early; with all the usual caveats surrounding such exit polls. They can, but another forum I’m on has some fairly hardcore poll-fiends on it, and they reckon that none of the big polling firms are doing exit-polling today. The campaigns will be, but that’s internal use only. ---
**Author:** ![Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt.Ridley_s_Shooting_Party)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 12:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/755 "2014-09-18T12:34:44Z")
Yeah, I’ve also read that there’s nobody doing exit polling too. ---
**Author:** ![amanset](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/8dc957/32.png) [@amanset](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amanset)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 12:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/756 "2014-09-18T12:44:02Z")
> [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](#): > > Yeah, I’ve also read that there’s nobody doing exit polling too. 1992 killed off the concept of the exit poll for me. ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/757 "2014-09-18T13:04:20Z")
> [@Baron\_Greenback](#): > > They can, but another forum I’m on has some fairly hardcore poll-fiends on it, and they reckon that none of the big polling firms are doing exit-polling today. The campaigns will be, but that’s internal use only. Fair enough. I was hoping we’d get some indication of the results before stupid o’clock in the morning. Or worse; falling asleep British, waking up Scottish. ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 1:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/758 "2014-09-18T13:09:35Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](#): > > Fair enough. I was hoping we’d get some indication of the results before stupid o’clock in the morning. So was I. I love election night coverage, but what on earth are they going to talk about for the four or five hours from poll close to first results if there’s no exit polling. :mad: ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/759 "2014-09-18T13:19:13Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](#): > > Its being “reported” on social media and elsewhere online that Andy Murray has come out in favour of Yes. However, this cant be reported on tv or radio because it was tweeted after 3am(?). After 3am on polling day such matters cannot be reported. I dont know whats more annoying to me; the fact that Andy Murray’s opinion is thought to matter in the slightest, or the fact that hes tuned into a political toe rag. > > As I type this someone has just started playing the Bagpipes outside. It is in the online mail. He tweeted it just after 1am. As a Scot I am sure he will be allowed his opinion. Abusing individuals for their valid opinions is a bit off. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 1:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356/760 "2014-09-18T13:21:02Z")
> [@Baron\_Greenback](#): > > So was I. I love election night coverage, but what on earth are they going to talk about for the four or five hours from poll close to first results if there’s no exit polling. :mad: It is reported that the last three areas expected to report are Glasgow, Edinburgh and Aberdeen- after 6am and comprising nearly a quarter of the vote. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356.md?page=37) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scotlands-referendum-on-independence-18-sept-2014/679356.md?page=39)