# Scott Walker drawing huge throngs in support of Cooch in Virginia (not) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 3, 2013, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scott-walker-drawing-huge-throngs-in-support-of-cooch-in-virginia-not/672996 "2013-11-03T17:42:33Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2013, 10:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scott-walker-drawing-huge-throngs-in-support-of-cooch-in-virginia-not/672996/41 "2013-11-06T10:35:58Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > In most competitive races, you lose 5 points in the last week, you lose. Congratulations, you beat a crazy Tea Partier by 1.5 points in a swing state. Wow, such strength! The problem is the conclusion the Republican Party will draw from this defeat will probably be “I guess our Tea Partier wasn’t crazy enough.” Here’s a thought, guys, maybe we should run some sane candidates. It seems to be working for the Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2013, 10:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scott-walker-drawing-huge-throngs-in-support-of-cooch-in-virginia-not/672996/42 "2013-11-06T10:40:54Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > In most competitive races, you lose 5 points in the last week, you lose. Congratulations, you beat a crazy Tea Partier by 1.5 points in a swing state. Wow, such strength! Actually, this is the takeaway from the night. Virginia is now - in all actuality - a swing state, possibly even heading true blue. If that’s true and borne out by the next several cycles that’s 13 electoral votes that republican presidential candidates desperately need to replace and there’s no idea where to find them. Toss in the weakening of North Carolina and even maybe Georgia and republican extremism is painting them into a minority status corner. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2013, 11:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scott-walker-drawing-huge-throngs-in-support-of-cooch-in-virginia-not/672996/43 "2013-11-06T11:43:20Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > And let’s not forget how much Terry had to outspend Cooch The big money men bailed on your guy left and right. Not a good sign for Team Red… ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2013, 11:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scott-walker-drawing-huge-throngs-in-support-of-cooch-in-virginia-not/672996/44 "2013-11-06T11:51:20Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > The problem is the conclusion the Republican Party will draw from this defeat will probably be “I guess our Tea Partier wasn’t crazy enough.” The narrow win is actually better for the Dems than a blowout would have beein – the experienced establishment Republicans conclude that they need to dial back on teh crazee, the Teanut Gallery concludes that their guy would have won if the party apparatchiks hadn’t stabbed him in the back, the Democrats pass the popcorn and watch the circular firing squad, the Republicans are big-red-capital-Superman “S” screwed. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2013, 12:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scott-walker-drawing-huge-throngs-in-support-of-cooch-in-virginia-not/672996/45 "2013-11-06T12:37:24Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > And let’s not forget how much Terry had to outspend Cooch to get that slim victory. Money doesn’t grow on trees. You won’t have that advantage in the 6-7 crucial Senate races in 2014. Funny - I saw people predicting that the right-wing spin will be “the Democrats outspent the Republicans and that’s why they won” and here you are, right on cue. Just accept that the Republican candidate was even more terrible than the terrible Democratic candidate, and rather than trying to figure out how to blame the Democrats figure out how to get better candidates on the ballot. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2013, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scott-walker-drawing-huge-throngs-in-support-of-cooch-in-virginia-not/672996/46 "2013-11-06T14:04:44Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > Just accept that the Republican candidate was even more terrible than the terrible Democratic candidate, and rather than trying to figure out how to blame the Democrats figure out how to get better candidates on the ballot. You would think that Republicans would take a good hard look at yesterday’s results and study why one conservative won a resounding victory and the other didn’t. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2013, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scott-walker-drawing-huge-throngs-in-support-of-cooch-in-virginia-not/672996/47 "2013-11-06T14:20:57Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > Funny - I saw people predicting that the right-wing spin will be “the Democrats outspent the Republicans and that’s why they won” and here you are, right on cue. Surely, in the conservative view of the world, the fact that Cuccinelli couldn’t convince people to spend money on him is sufficiently damning in and of itself. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2013, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scott-walker-drawing-huge-throngs-in-support-of-cooch-in-virginia-not/672996/48 "2013-11-06T14:46:00Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > A win can also be a warning sign. Results of November 2013 elections: Tea Party candidates (e.g., Cuccinelli) lose. Non-TP Republicans (e.g., Christie) win. Progressive Democrats (e.g., De Blasio) win by a landslide. There’s your warning sign. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2013, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scott-walker-drawing-huge-throngs-in-support-of-cooch-in-virginia-not/672996/49 "2013-11-06T14:52:22Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > That’s my point. No Obama on the ticket, no turnout for Democrats. 6-7% lead in the polls, no turnout for Democrats. No turnout for Republicans, either, but we know Republicans always benefit from low turnout. I think you may be underestimating the effect of media coverage presenting this as a _fait accopli_ - I mean, why bother voting when your guy can’t lose. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2013, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scott-walker-drawing-huge-throngs-in-support-of-cooch-in-virginia-not/672996/50 "2013-11-06T17:47:42Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > That’s my point. No Obama on the ticket, no turnout for Democrats. This is so wrong for so many reasons. It was an off year and thus a terrible comparison, but even so, [McAuliffe maintained high turnout of black voters without Obama on the ticket.](http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/11/06/how-high-african-american-turnout-gave-terry-mcauliffe-his-win-in-virginia.html) > [@](#): > > Overall, the electorate is broadly similar to where it was in 2009, when Virginians gave Republican Bob McDonnell a landslide victory of Democrat Creigh Deeds. […] Where the change from 2009 was most significant was among black voters. Then, African Americans were 16 percent were of the electorate, a significant drop from the 2008 election. This year, blacks were 20 percent of all voters, which means their turnout was exactly where it was in 2012. Put another way, for the second year in a row, African Americans turned out at a rate above their percentage of the population, and supported the Democrat by a 9-to–1 margin. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2013, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scott-walker-drawing-huge-throngs-in-support-of-cooch-in-virginia-not/672996/51 "2013-11-06T18:00:50Z")
I didn’t see where he specified black people. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2013, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scott-walker-drawing-huge-throngs-in-support-of-cooch-in-virginia-not/672996/52 "2013-11-06T18:09:30Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > I didn’t see where he specified black people. He didn’t specify. It ought to be obvious to everybody that more people show up to vote for president + senate than for governor. (It looks like twice as many Virginians voted in 2012 vs. 2013.) I thought the issue here was not raw turnout, but who turns out. There was a great deal of discussion in 2012 about whether the electorate was going to look the same it did in 2008 - the theory being that minorities weren’t going to show up for Obama this time. They did, and Republicans lost again. And here we see that McAuliffe maintained a high turnout among black voters, and very high support among those voters, without Obama on the ticket. So by any sensible standard, “no Obama, no turnout” was false. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2013, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scott-walker-drawing-huge-throngs-in-support-of-cooch-in-virginia-not/672996/53 "2013-11-06T20:14:07Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I figured you and Hentor would fall back on that. That’s okay, your guy did win, so congratulations. But it should never have been that close, and I think you know that. And it was close because of the President. > > Assuming that continues to be a problem for the next year, that bodes very badly for Democrats trying to hold the Senate. So you’d better start coaching your guy on how to run a government, because you’re finding out now that that stuff is actually kinda important. As was said in a different context: “Winning isn’t everything. It’s the ONLY thing.” It’s even more true in politics than it is in sports. Pundits can be ignored because they never know what they’re talking about anyway. Next year’s election can be ignored because it’s a whole year away and who knows what will happen between now and then. The only thing that is important is who won yesterday. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2013, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scott-walker-drawing-huge-throngs-in-support-of-cooch-in-virginia-not/672996/54 "2013-11-06T20:24:22Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > He didn’t specify. Then why are you only talking about minority turnout? 😕 ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2013, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scott-walker-drawing-huge-throngs-in-support-of-cooch-in-virginia-not/672996/55 "2013-11-06T20:35:24Z")
By the way this means Virginia is likely to accept the ACA Medicaid expansion and a whole bunch of poor people will get health insurance that they would not have received under McDonnell and Cuccinelli. > [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Then why are you only talking about minority turnout? 😕 > [@adaher](#): > > I’ll be very interested in seeing the turnout numbers. Obama’s “coalition of the ascendant” doesn’t come out when he’s not on the ballot. If they didn’t in VA, that’s a bad sign for 2014 and even 2016. It looks like they did come out without Obama on the ballot. ---
**Author:** ![monstro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba9def/32.png) [@monstro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/monstro)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2013, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scott-walker-drawing-huge-throngs-in-support-of-cooch-in-virginia-not/672996/56 "2013-11-06T20:42:09Z")
I didn’t see/hear a single McAuliffe ad that didn’t contain a reference to Obama. Either as “McAuliffe is Obama’s friend” or “Cuccinelli is Obama’s enemy”. Without Obama, McAuliffe would have lost. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2013, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scott-walker-drawing-huge-throngs-in-support-of-cooch-in-virginia-not/672996/57 "2013-11-06T20:55:17Z")
The only redeeming quality MCAuliffe had was the D next to his name, that he won in an off year with a Democrat president is a huge huge upset, trying to spin it otherwise because the polls tightened near the end is standard Adaher delusional history. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2013, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scott-walker-drawing-huge-throngs-in-support-of-cooch-in-virginia-not/672996/58 "2013-11-07T00:54:13Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > It looks like they did come out without Obama on the ballot. Are turnout numbers available yet? What was the demographic makeup of the electorate? ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2013, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scott-walker-drawing-huge-throngs-in-support-of-cooch-in-virginia-not/672996/59 "2013-11-07T01:33:46Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Are turnout numbers available yet? What was the demographic makeup of the electorate? I linked to some details from exit polling in post #50. It looks like the electorate was about 20% black, the same as in 2012, and black voters went for McAuliffe at the same kind of clip they voted for Obama. While the electorate was pretty similar to 2009 (maybe a bit more liberal and moderate), that part of Obama’s coalition seems to have turned out even though he wasn’t on the ballot. [Here are the raw totals from the exit polls.](http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/11/05/va.gov.exit.polls.1120p.110513.v2.final%5B1%5D.copy.pdf) ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2013, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scott-walker-drawing-huge-throngs-in-support-of-cooch-in-virginia-not/672996/60 "2013-11-07T01:47:15Z")
Wow. Black voters turned out. On the bright side for the GOP, Cooch did win the 18-24 group. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scott-walker-drawing-huge-throngs-in-support-of-cooch-in-virginia-not/672996.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scott-walker-drawing-huge-throngs-in-support-of-cooch-in-virginia-not/672996.md?page=4)