# Scottish Independence-Is it realistic? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 28, 2024, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scottish-independence-is-it-realistic/1000883 "2024-04-28T21:55:26Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Smid](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/838e76/32.png) [@Smid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smid)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2024, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scottish-independence-is-it-realistic/1000883/21 "2024-04-29T18:15:45Z")
The presence of the UK nuclear arsenal does have some sort of implication on this too (Faslane). I don’t think the US has anything over in Scotland anymore. I’m not sure where in England/Wales the submarines etc would go, it’s something which has suited the lochs up around the highlands much better than places in England. ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2024, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scottish-independence-is-it-realistic/1000883/22 "2024-04-29T18:33:01Z")
That was not my equivalence. Catalonia also existed before Spain. > [@Smid](#): > > small states of larger states, with a country which has been in a Union Just some numbers. Scotland: established 9th century [(traditionally](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_myth) 843). Population 2022 census: 5,436,600 out of 67,596,281 for the UK as a whole = 8%. Catalonia: pick your choice for established: 801 ([County of Barcelona](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/County_of_Barcelona)) 1137 ([Dynastic union with Aragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crown_of_Aragon)) 1283 ([Catalan constitutions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_constitutions)). Population: 8,005,784 out of 48,592,909 for Spain as a whole, that is 16.5%. /hijack And Hungary… never mind. ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2024, 11:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scottish-independence-is-it-realistic/1000883/23 "2024-04-30T11:07:47Z")
> [@Smid](#): > > I don’t think anyone gives a crap about being in the Euro or not. But they do: it’s a condition of admission to the EU, complete with tight fiscal rules on public debt. The UK negotiated the option to stay out of the euro and its fiscal rules: but that wouldn’t automatically devolve to an independent Scotland - a point I don’t recall the SNP ever convincingly dealing with. As to whether anyone in Scotland would care - well, they might if they found an independent Scotland in the same situation as Greece a few years ago. ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2024, 12:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scottish-independence-is-it-realistic/1000883/24 "2024-04-30T12:04:17Z")
> [@PatrickLondon](#): > > > [@Smid](#): > > > > I don’t think anyone gives a crap about being in the Euro or not. > > But they do: it’s a condition of admission to the EU No, it is not. Several EU members do not use the €uro: Poland, Denmark, Sweden, Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, the Czech Republic and Hungary. And some States use the €uro without being EU-members: Andorra, Kosovo, Monaco, Montenegro, San Marino and Vatican City ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2024, 12:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scottish-independence-is-it-realistic/1000883/25 "2024-04-30T12:13:50Z")
Denmark and Sweden got the same op-out as the UK, but convergence and adoption of the euro is a commitment in the accession treaty of new members. Granted, how long they’re given for convergence seems to be an open question, but in principle the commitment’s there - and Scotland would hardly have the same leap to make as the post-Communist countries > **[Conditions for membership](https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/enlargement-policy/conditions-membership_en)** > > Conditions for membership > **[Poland and the euro](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poland_and_the_euro)** > > Poland does not use the euro as its currency. However, under the terms of their Treaty of Accession with the European Union, all new Member States "shall participate in the Economic and Monetary Union from the date of accession as a Member State with a derogation", which means that Poland is obliged to eventually replace its currency, the złoty, with the euro. > There is no target date for Polish euro adoption, and no fixed date for when the country will join ERM-II (the fifth euro convergence ... ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2024, 12:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scottish-independence-is-it-realistic/1000883/26 "2024-04-30T12:32:21Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > As to whether its realistic in terms of survivability…, it kind of depends what you mean by surviving and what the goal of independence is. For some supporters, independence is the end in itself. It is simply right for the people of Scotland to control their own affairs as a separate nation from England/the UK. Don’t get me wrong - they do believe that Scotland would prosper as an independent nation, but that is a second order question: the point is to be independent and have the opportunity to succeed or fail on your own terms. For others, Scotland is held back by being in the UK and will be better off out and so independence is just a means to an end. Yeah, I think this is what separates Brexit from a potential Scotxit. The European Union is a pretty loose assemblage if independent countries who come together for economic prosperity. Despite what Brexiteers argued, you can be a sovereign nation whose people have self determination while being part of the EU. So the real question comes down to, did leaving the EU materially improve the conditions of most British people? And the answer is a resounding NO. Scotland leaving the EU _would_ represent a significant change in autonomy for the Scottish people, and if that’s the reason the Scottish voters decide to leave the UK, then changes in material conditions may very well impact how satisfied Scots are with their newfound independence; but it isn’t the _main goal_ of such a movement. It’s really none of my business whether Scotland becomes independent, but I certainly wish them well, and support them on this path, if it is the one they end up pursuing. ---
**Author:** ![Smid](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/838e76/32.png) [@Smid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smid)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2024, 1:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scottish-independence-is-it-realistic/1000883/27 "2024-04-30T13:12:49Z")
> [@PatrickLondon](#): > > But they do: it’s a condition of admission to the EU, complete with tight fiscal rules on public debt Yes and no. Scotland doesn’t give a crap about the Euro, so condition of entry or not, it’s good for them. In fact probably pretty pro-Euro, And you get in without having the Euro, you are supposed to head towards joining it, but even without opt outs, the likes of Hungary won’t ever want to. And let’s face it if places like Romania and Lithuania get it, economy isn’t a problem. ---
**Author:** ![zimaane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/a3d4f5/32.png) [@zimaane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zimaane)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2024, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scottish-independence-is-it-realistic/1000883/28 "2024-04-30T13:13:54Z")
How would citizenship work? There must tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands (?) of people whose family and hometown are in England or Northern Ireland but now live and work in Scotland. If Scotland becomes independent, would they become immigrants who could be deported ? What about the other way around ? It seems like a large practical matter to resolve. ---
**Author:** ![Smid](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/838e76/32.png) [@Smid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smid)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2024, 1:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scottish-independence-is-it-realistic/1000883/29 "2024-04-30T13:15:35Z")
> [@zimaane](#): > > How would citizenship work? Well, I’m guessing born in Scotland, Scottish passport. Living in Scotland for a significant time, Scottish passport. Not in schengen, so Common Travel Area like Republic of Ireland. Can have UK passport if live in England and not born there. The idea of deporting people is ludicrous. ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2024, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scottish-independence-is-it-realistic/1000883/30 "2024-04-30T13:48:40Z")
The reason why there’s a common travel area with Ireland is precisely that it would have been too complicated to try to enforce a rigid division, for both sentimental and practical reasons. The Anglo-Scottish relationship would face similar complications. As someone with a Scottish-born grandfather, I’m carefully hanging on to the relevant documents, just in case the time will come when I could get a Scottish passport to access the EU. ---
**Author:** ![veryfrank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/87869e/32.png) [@veryfrank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/veryfrank)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2024, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scottish-independence-is-it-realistic/1000883/31 "2024-04-30T14:00:30Z")
> [@PatrickLondon](#): > > The reason why there’s a common travel area with Ireland is precisely that it would have been too complicated to try to enforce a rigid division, for both sentimental and practical reasons. The Anglo-Scottish relationship would face similar complications. This was one of the most angering things from the persepctive of a Remainer like myself. After decades of The Troubles, the GFA made the border between NI and the Republic basically irrelevant. People worked on one side and commuted to the other; I heard about citizens of one nation whose properties abutted the “border” and by walking out of their back garden they’d be in the other. Add to that an Irish culture that covered the island and to a large degree didn’t matter on a Protestant/Catholic standing, and it was a pretty (not 100% but what is) happy situation. The Brexiters deliberately said that wasn’t worth discussing, oh we’ll figure something out, despite the fact that leaving the EU would necessitate a harder border of some kind. At this point, I doubt Scotland will be seceding any day soon. But I think Irish reunification is increasingly possible. As the census in NI recently showed a Catholic majority for the first time, a plebecite within the next decade might just do the trick. And if the far right Unionists don’t like it, well they said they feel British anyway, and they can use that passport as they see fit. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2024, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scottish-independence-is-it-realistic/1000883/32 "2024-05-01T20:53:52Z")
> [@veryfrank](#): > > Scots are still rightfully pissed at England for Brexit. That is a damned good reason. The Conservative party lied their bigoted asses off. However, IMHO I think this kind of vote- where you cant really go back- needs to be a 60% vote. Brexit should have been 60% also. Same with PR independence. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2024, 12:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scottish-independence-is-it-realistic/1000883/33 "2024-05-02T12:55:13Z")
> [@Smid](#): > > The idea of deporting people is ludicrous. That’s exactly the sort of thing that Leave people said after Brexit. “What do you mean my au pair can’t stay? She’s been here for years!” Or the Whetherspoons guy being shocked that he suddenly couldn’t find staff for his pubs. ---
**Author:** ![Smid](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/838e76/32.png) [@Smid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smid)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2024, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scottish-independence-is-it-realistic/1000883/34 "2024-05-02T17:37:52Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > That’s exactly the sort of thing that Leave people said after Brexit. I’m confused. Who are you calling idiots here? Pro-Independence people? Leavers are not a great example of sense, logic, reasoning, or indeed, sanity. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2024, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scottish-independence-is-it-realistic/1000883/35 "2024-05-04T12:43:13Z")
I’m not calling anyone idiots. I am merely pointing out that Leavers said similar “that’s not going to happen” things about Brexit to what you’re saying. And we’re completely wrong. ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2024, 5:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scottish-independence-is-it-realistic/1000883/36 "2024-05-05T05:03:40Z")
“we’re” or “were”? ---
**Author:** ![Smid](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/838e76/32.png) [@Smid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smid)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2024, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scottish-independence-is-it-realistic/1000883/37 "2024-05-05T14:04:31Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > I am merely pointing out that Leavers said similar “that’s not going to happen” things about Brexit to what you’re saying. And we’re completely wrong. And the fact that they said it in the face of any logic or sense, made them stupid. An expulsion of each others citizens is a ludicrous suggestion, it didn’t happen in any other EU countries independences, and from a country with 300 years of ties with the monarch mostly living in the other country, it isn’t even slightly likely. CTA will be established, borders will be agreed, either open or enforced and that’s it. If a vote is made, there will be months of work to get to a day when the country actually is fully independent, with currency and borders. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2024, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scottish-independence-is-it-realistic/1000883/38 "2024-05-05T15:49:57Z")
> [@Smid](#): > > Interesting the result of the 1979 Independence vote in Scotland was 52 to 48, for the Yes, but thatcher put a much higher mandate on the target. So that grates a fair amount. No it wasn’t, it was for greater devolution ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2024, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scottish-independence-is-it-realistic/1000883/39 "2024-05-05T15:53:14Z")
> [@Smid](#): > > If needs be, a Scottish border could be implemented with far more ease than a Northern Irish border. It will also likely be trying to stop the English coming in, because a lot of the Northern English aren’t that fond of, and been treated well by, the Southern English, and may want to join. What is this even? Alot of Northern English would receive far greater investment by Westminster as a counter to the newly minted statelet above them. No Brit thinks the Balkanisation of the British isles is a good idea. > [@Smid](#): > > CTA will be established No it won’t, the prospect of an independent Scotland having access to the EU and the RUK without any checks won’t be palatable to an English electorate, as you can’t explain it away like you can with the ROI due to NI ---
**Author:** ![Smid](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/838e76/32.png) [@Smid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smid)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2024, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scottish-independence-is-it-realistic/1000883/40 "2024-05-05T16:21:24Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > What is this even? Alot of Northern English would receive far greater investment by Westminster as a counter to the newly minted statelet above them. No Brit thinks the Balkanisation of the British isles is a good idea. “No Brits think that Balkanisation of the British Isle is a good idea”? Are you now dismissing the 2.2 million Scots who voted for the SNP, and thus independence as “Not Brits”? > [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > No it won’t, the prospect of an independent Scotland having access to the EU and the RUK without any checks won’t be palatable to an English electorate, as you can’t explain it away like you can with the ROI due to NI Explain why I can’t. And don’t just say it. Explain. The English won’t have a choice about an independent Scotland. The details after that are up to the disruption involved, and stop making out the CTA is some sort of byproduct of the Good Friday agreement, and not set up 101 years ago on Irish Independence. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scottish-independence-is-it-realistic/1000883.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scottish-independence-is-it-realistic/1000883.md?page=3)