Yes, a circuit split only increases the likelihood, so I’ve been lead to believe. I think it could run afoul of both the 2nd and the 14th. The 14th if it’s being applied unevenly, and the 2nd if no permits are granted whatsoever. I actually think Moore in Chicago would be a better case to take to SCOTUS since in Chicago it is a 100% ban, rather than discretionary issue like NYC. But Moore won
Though it may go en banc - I think both parties have submitted their arguments in favor and against en banc review - I dont think the court has ruled on it yet. The deadline I thought was 3 days ago, so they may have let it pass meaning no en banc.
True. It does overcome the major hurdle and if the licensing authority plays games with the other requirements they’d get sued again. The details of such an opinion would control how it gets handled. But at some point the city has to not like paying millions in attorney’s fees.