# Screamers Mafia **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [September 21, 2009, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938 "2009-09-21T13:16:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 127
**Author:** ![Normal\_Phase](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Normal\_Phase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Normal_Phase)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2009, 1:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/2521 "2009-11-10T01:04:47Z")
> [@](#): > > 9 players remaining. Assuming 3 Scum and 1 SK, then if we lynch 2 toDay and lose 2 to NK that will put at us 5 players. If it is a double mislynch and two Townies killed, Town is virtually wiped out. Virtually is one word for it. That would be, most likely, 2 Scum and a SK vs two remaining Town. Town’s chances slim to none. You did the math, you wrote the numbers down yourself, and you are still seriously advocating something that has a measurable chance of wiping us out? Seriously? From where I’m sitting that looks scummy as hell. **vote: AllWalker** ---
**Author:** ![Trepa\_Mayfield](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/edb3f5/32.png) [@Trepa\_Mayfield](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trepa_Mayfield)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2009, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/2522 "2009-11-10T01:16:44Z")
Vote Count: Tilty (1): USCD Norma (2): OaOW, Allwalker AllWalker (1): Norma ---
**Author:** ![GuiriEnEspana](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bc79bd/32.png) [@GuiriEnEspana](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GuiriEnEspana)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2009, 9:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/2523 "2009-11-10T09:09:04Z")
I think \*\*Normal \*\* is Town. The safest bet for toDay, unless we get a very strong case against someone else, is to lynch **Tilta**. If her role claim is true, she’ll survive (whether Town or Scum, Escape Artist does seem pro-scum - Town wastes a lynch and if she’s NKed, scum already know her alignment so only Town will be in the dark) and we’ll be down at most 2 townies from NKs and will have another Day to keep fighting. Best case scenario is she’s scum and her claim is false, she dies and the SK and scum find each other. The alternatives could weaken Town too much (1 mislynch = up to 3 less Townies, mislynch **Normal** = up to 4 less Townies) **Vote Tiltawhirl** ---
**Author:** ![Normal\_Phase](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Normal\_Phase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Normal_Phase)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2009, 1:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/2524 "2009-11-10T13:21:59Z")
Two things bother me about AllWalker’s claim. First: it’s not “evil-ish” in the slightest. Every single other Town power role, claimed or proven, has had drawbacks. Me – if I screw up and get lynched, I stand a good chance of taking Town with me Tiltawhirl – we lose information for a time if she is NKed OAOW – the leader restriction draws notice, not a good thing for an investigator Boozy – politician, 'nuff said Gryff – at least one of his items (the tiara) could have been dangerous for Town if used in a tricky endgame situation Thing Fish – bodyguard, like bomb and politician, is a traditional role that’s nevertheless “evil-ish”. Winds up dead if he guesses right. Peeker – goes without saying Daphne – link a weak investigation to one of the most distrusted Townie roles Freudian – goes without saying TexCat – winds up dead if she recruits a Scum or tries to recruit someone who is then attacked (not sure which happened, but either way it’s a drawback) Am I missing any? In any case, Lucky Townie is all positives for Town, no drawbacks whatsoever. Maybe more significant – if you have that role legitimately, how do you play? Do you sit back and wait for Town to get around to worrying about the less noisy players, so you can then claim if pressured and forewarn Scum about yourself? (Or wait for a mass claim, which does the same thing.) Or do you try to get out there and push things, in hopes you become enough of a danger to Scum that they try to kill you? AllWalker’s been playing like someone who does NOT want to be NKed. That’s contrary to his claimed role. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2009, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/2525 "2009-11-10T13:36:48Z")
> [@Normal\_Phase](#): > > AllWalker’s been playing like someone who does NOT want to be NKed. That’s contrary to his claimed role. OTOH, it fits in with his play style from previous games; he’s always been more of a guy to summarize the day’s combat than to get into the trenches early. I’m going to go look back at my WoW on him with an eye towards whether he’s a Serial Killer - I was concentrating on the scum side of the equation before and still don’t think he’s scummy. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2009, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/2526 "2009-11-10T14:57:53Z")
[Here’s my wall on AllWalker (days 1 through 4 1/2).](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11709005&postcount=2139) Nothing jumps out as either fingering him as a SK or ruling him out. Small datapoints: [a long post on the Daphne/peeker roleblocker claims, where he brings up the idea of lynching a town roleblocker](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11656575&postcount=1306), which I guess is Mafia CW but which I totally don’t get; anyway, it’s an argument a Serial Killer would be fond of, though also something Town could easily come up with. [“I agree with Chronos’s guess that the extra kills come from a (most likely compulsary) Vig.”](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11673024&postcount=1621) (reacting to night 2 kills) I’d count his Day 1 vote as slightly on the Town side of things; there was a reasonable bandwagon forming on jpei at the time which someone looking mainly to stay under the radar could have hopped on without drawing much notice. So just a couple very weak indicators; nothing that really should sway anyone one way or the other. ---
**Author:** ![GuiriEnEspana](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bc79bd/32.png) [@GuiriEnEspana](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GuiriEnEspana)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2009, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/2527 "2009-11-10T15:23:34Z")
> [@pedescribe](#): > > Suddenly, Boozy Squid sputtered and spoke. “Hello. If you can hear this, that means my overpriced auto-will has worked successfully. Boozahol has died exactly 8 hours ago, and he wished to tell you that he prays for your success.” The hologram of Boozy vanished. > > Boozahol Squid PI, the Megacorp Regional Manager (Town Politician), is also dead. /snipped and bleached **Mods, is there any significance in the fact that Boozy died 8 hours before the end of the Night?** ---
**Author:** ![GuiriEnEspana](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bc79bd/32.png) [@GuiriEnEspana](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GuiriEnEspana)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2009, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/2528 "2009-11-10T16:06:39Z")
> [@GuiriEnEspana](#): > > **Mods, is there any significance in the fact that Boozy died 8 hours before the end of the Night?** In case I don’t get an answer… I noticed this during a re-read. **Boozy** ’s dying 8 hours before the end of the Night could indicate that he was not night killed (or at least not night killed based on usual game mechanics), right? Maybe he tried to use the “auto-will” he received from **Gryff** or maybe he tried to do something with name tag he got from **DB**? I’m thinking we may not have a SK at all and **Alka** was our only 3rd party. Possibly scum had extra night-kills based on the number of surviving scum? Maybe when they lost both **JC** and **Chronos** they lost the extra one? As ever, ignore me if this is completely and utterly implausible. I’m just hoping Town has is in a stronger position than it appears. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2009, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/2529 "2009-11-10T16:21:19Z")
> [@GuiriEnEspana](#): > > Maybe he tried to use the “auto-will” he received from **Gryff** or maybe he tried to do something with name tag he got from **DB**? I don’t think Gryff would have likely had any items that would be outright suicidal to use. An auto-will would be very handy for an investigator-type. > [@](#): > > I’m thinking we may not have a SK at all and **Alka** was our only 3rd party. Possibly scum had extra night-kills based on the number of surviving scum? Maybe when they lost both **JC** and **Chronos** they lost the extra one? If scum had bonus kills, why did JC die on night 1? I guessyour idea of a paranoid gun owner is still a possibility. From Night 1 I’ve been working on a theory that OaOW was a third-party or Town paranoid gun owner who offed JC due to a turn 1 investigation; he can’t be a Town one, but Iguess he could still have the paranoid gun owner thing along with being a Serial Killer, or he could be a 3rd party “keep away from me” type and Scum could have extra night kills. But SK and scum still looks the most likely to me. ---
**Author:** ![GuiriEnEspana](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bc79bd/32.png) [@GuiriEnEspana](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GuiriEnEspana)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2009, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/2530 "2009-11-10T16:28:09Z")
@ **Tom** , thanks. I’m probably just reading too much into the color again. The mention of “exactly 8 hours ago” and the “overpriced auto-will” got the better of me… ---
**Author:** ![Trepa\_Mayfield](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/edb3f5/32.png) [@Trepa\_Mayfield](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trepa_Mayfield)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2009, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/2531 "2009-11-10T17:36:35Z")
Vote Count: Tilty (2): USCD, Guiri Norma (2): OaOW, Allwalker AllWalker (1): Norma [/QUOTE] > [@GuiriEnEspana](#): > > /snipped and bleached > > **Mods, is there any significance in the fact that Boozy died 8 hours before the end of the Night?** It is just color. ---
**Author:** ![Normal\_Phase](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Normal\_Phase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Normal_Phase)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2009, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/2532 "2009-11-10T18:02:58Z")
I’m inclined to believe OAOW’s claim due to the breadcrumb he mentioned. It seems safe enough to assume he does in fact have an investigation result on Boozy, which should pretty much rule out the PFK idea. He could theoretically be Scum making use of Cat’s results. I think the following two things would both need to be true for that to be reasonable – there is no SK. In this case Jimmy died from some ability that has not been revealed, which implies we do have a different sort of third party still lurking about. (As no one has claimed any ability which could account for it.) In that case some other Scum killed Jpei (and possibly Texcat), while Jimmy died due to his investigation. But Scum should know very well who he was investigating, and there’s been no sign of them trying to force a third-party claim from anyone, nor did they choose to use their roleblocker to try again on Night Two. I think it’s long odds, long enough that forget point two. I think there is a SK, and OAOW is not it, which almost certainly means he’s not Scum either. I don’t give him long odds for surviving the Night. As regards the SK, I know there was some discussion on Day Two and Three about SK vs. Vig – it’s possible there’s a clue in there somewhere, if the SK felt the need to speak up on the topic. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2009, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/2533 "2009-11-10T18:26:27Z")
I think this is the early SK or Vig? discussion, from Day 3. Only AllWalker and Normal, of the plausible SKs, weighed in: [1618](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11672902&postcount=1618) Chronos thinks killer is probably vig. [1621](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11673024&postcount=1621) AllWalker agrees with Chronos. [1634](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11673623&postcount=1634) Alka thinks could be vig or sk trying to look like vig [1637](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11673777&postcount=1637) Tom Scud thinks it was a vig [1640](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11674139&postcount=1640) Normal isn’t sure, but thinks it was an SK killing talkative players [1641](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11674165&postcount=1641) Drain Bead thinks town roleblocker means probable SK ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2009, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/2534 "2009-11-10T18:35:30Z")
There was some Day 2 discussion as well, but not much of interest, really. USCDiver and others making the reasonable case that we didn’t have enough information to get much out of the pattern of deaths, and Allwalker in [this post](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11640206&postcount=1023) raising the possibility that TexCat had tried to recruit scum. (Guiri had earlier speculated that TexCat had tried to recruit a paranoid gun owner or similar role). ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2009, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/2535 "2009-11-10T18:40:49Z")
[url=“[http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11673730&postcount=1636](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11673730&postcount=1636)”]This as far as I can tell is USCDiver’s only post on “vig or sk?” and he comes down firmly on the side of “i dunno”. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2009, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/2536 "2009-11-10T18:41:52Z")
NETA: [This](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11673730&postcount=1636) is actually a clickable link dammit. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2009, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/2537 "2009-11-10T19:03:54Z")
Anyway, to summarize, of our four possible SKs, **Normal** thought there was an SK, **AllWalker** thought there was a vig, **USCDiver** was agnostic, and **tiltawhirl** didn’t comment. Which doesn’t really get us very far. ---
**Author:** ![Normal\_Phase](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Normal\_Phase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Normal_Phase)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2009, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/2538 "2009-11-10T19:07:24Z")
I think that first link makes it more likely that AllWalker is SK over Scum, if I’m right about his motives wrt my role, and the inconsistencies in his role claim. The first two SK kills were plausible if slightly unusual vig kills. It’s possible a third attempt was as well, if Daphne managed a block on the same night she was killed.\* The night after that was either Alka or Gryff (if the tiara was a protective item) – the former could definitely have passed as a vig attempt. It’s really only the most recent Night’s deaths (either Boozy or Gryff) that are solid evidence it was not a vig. (Well, that and the lack of a vig claim, but you know what I mean.) So certainly on Day Two a SK who had been lucky enough to off a Scum might still have been thinking he might have a chance to pass as vig, and would have at least been tempted to promote the possibility. The post where AllWalker agreed with Chronos is suggestive: (bolding mine) > [@](#): > > Only two kills. Since chances are that peeker self protected but was roleblocked, and that there aren’t anymore protective roles, then there probably wasn’t a blocked kill last Night. Also, I agree with Chronos’s guess that the extra kills come from a **(most likely compulsary)** Vig. > > (snipped from here) That is exactly the impression a SK would want to leave if he was still hoping to pass for Vig in a crunch, and AllWalker is the only person to bring it up. Not enough to vote for him in itself, but it does give context to my original suspicions. - the other option is a double attack on Daphne, which of course would not pass as vig at all. I remember Alka brought up that possibility. (I think it was Alka.) Any funny reactions to that? ---
**Author:** ![Normal\_Phase](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Normal\_Phase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Normal_Phase)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2009, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/2539 "2009-11-10T19:09:18Z")
NETA: Sorry, I meant Day Three up there. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2009, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/2540 "2009-11-10T19:20:35Z")
BTW, I’m obviously not going to put down a vote today. I’d like to put one down tomorrow some time, so long as at least a few parties have been heard from. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938.md?page=126) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938.md?page=128)