# Screamers Mafia

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938>\
**Category:** The Game Room\
**Created:** [September 21, 2009, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938 "2009-09-21T13:16:36Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 86

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\
**Post date:** [October 19, 2009, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/1701 "2009-10-19T18:39:36Z")

</div>

Vote Count

Gryff (1)  
Chronos(3): Drain Bead, Tom Scud, Normalphase,  
Tom Scud (1) : Chronos

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![DaphneBlack](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/daphneblack/32/5389_2.png) [@DaphneBlack](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DaphneBlack)\
**Post date:** [October 19, 2009, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/1702 "2009-10-19T19:25:37Z")

</div>

Sorry I’ve not been here; I’ve been having a bit of utter craziness IRL which continues tomorrow. I’m caught up but the full re-read still hasn’t happened.

I’m not going to say who I’m going to block ahead of time, but I will reveal it at the very end of the night if possible (ie if it doesn’t end in the middle of the night here in the UK).

I’ve looked through the case on Chronos. Self-centredly, I admit I see a lot of merit in it. I’m hung up on his thing about the impossibility of drunken robots. His approach claims to be super-logical and he thought I was scummy for not making what was in his view the optimal logical choice. I’m wary to leap on that bandwagon right off the bat, though. Since it looks like I will not have a chance to do a full re-read I am going to look at the bandwagon against me, on which I am almost sure there are some scum.

I inquired with the glorious mods about what would happen if I blockvestigated a generic scum. Seems that I would not find out that they had a power. So that means Freudian is not a goon, at least, though she could be a scum power role.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Oredigger77](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/oredigger77/32/3181_2.png) [@Oredigger77](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oredigger77)\
**Post date:** [October 19, 2009, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/1703 "2009-10-19T19:36:20Z")

</div>

I had a feeling that Chronos hadn’t been very analytical so I went back and reread his posts so far and he only had a couple of posts that seemed to be anywhere near his usual play style.

> [@Chronos](#):
>
> Quoth **Alka Seltzer** :Even if that is what **Thing Fish** is saying, it’s not necessarily unreasonable. Until we get more information, any given player is more likely to be Town than Scum, just by virtue of sheer numbers. On Day 1, you’re not looking for someone who’s probably (that is, more than 50% likely) Scum; you pretty much have to settle for whomever you think has the highest probability of being Scum, which will typically still be under 50%.

He’s just stating the obvious but at least he is trying to use logic.

> [@Chronos](#):
>
> On other matters: I do think that **peeker** ’s claim, when he made it, is a bit fishy, and I certainly don’t think that a Doctor claim should _always_ be a get-out-of-jail-free card. But on Day 1, we probably should accept it provisionally: If he is Scum, there’ll be plenty of time to catch him later, but if he’s really a Doctor, we’re losing a lot by killing him. Further, even if this policy does increase the chance of a Day 1 mislynch, is that necessarily a big deal? Assuming about 1/4 of the players are Scum, and that there’s only a small amount of active Scummy vote-skewing, the base odds of a Day 1 mislynch are probably around 80-85%. If we accept Day 1 Doctor claims, then that might go up to around 90-95%. It’s not like we’d be guaranteed of nabbing Scum if we ignored all Doctor claims; the odds are already pretty high for a mislynch, and only get slightly higher.

He tried to use some of his objectivity to explain why we shouldn’t lynch a claimed doc doesn’t really help find scum though.

> [@Chronos](#):
>
> Quoth **Normal Phase** :That’s not really “data”, that’s the plural of anecdote. That list only contains things that I thought were relevant, and if I didn’t notice the relevance of something, it wouldn’t end up on the list. Except for the votes, which are data, and which I will be analyzing thoroughly once we get enough, but that probably won’t be for another Day or three-- The large number of players this game makes it harder to find patterns in the votes.

Rather then paste his copious notes about the Days and Nights actions I figured I use his words to explain why that shouldn’t count as him using objective analysis.

All in all I was right he hasn’t done any analysis in thread to find scum. I find this pretty suspicious considering we’re on Day 3 and there have been plenty of days and votes in there for him to try and draw information from. When this is combined with some of the other cases against him I think the noticeable change in play style, despite him talking about objective analysis, is enough the vote.

**Vote Chronos**

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Alka\_Seltzer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c89c15/32.png) [@Alka\_Seltzer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alka_Seltzer)\
**Post date:** [October 19, 2009, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/1704 "2009-10-19T19:41:36Z")

</div>

> [@Tom\_Scud](#):
>
> BTW, **Alka** , no one has talked about Day’s end. I think a Tuesday DURING THE DAY (US time) vote, for a Wednesday end, makes the most sense.

Voting tomorrow would be premature as there are so few votes down. I’ll vote either on **Wednesday** or **Thursday** , depending on how quickly people get their act together. This will also have the advantage of moving one or two days of night to the weekend, when people are less active. I think all townies should aim to get their votes down before me.

If I vote early in the evening (maybe ~6:00-8:00PM), that should give everyone a chace to check-in before the Day end. GMT is 5 hours ahead of EST, so that would be about 1:00PM-3:00PM).

> [@Chronos](#):
>
> **Alka** , I didn’t like your “wait and see” idea on **Daphne** yesterDay, because at the time, I was pretty well convinced that she was Scum.

Lets be clear, I’m not suspicious because you thought Dapne was scum and voted her. It’s the inconsistant reasoning that bothers me.

> [@Oredigger77](#):
>
> I’m really sorry about my absence. I went on vacation on my way to moving to Texas without knowing that my parents had canceled their internet so I was stuck.

Welcome back Oredigger.

> [@Oredigger77](#):
>
> Right now I’m suspicious of Chronos normally he is much more analytical then he has been so far, making lists and his program. It seems he has mainly been shooting down ideas rather then hunting for patterns. I’m going to do a reread on him this afternoon to be sure before I vote.

Chronos’ program would be useless at this stage. A problem we have with data analysis is that no-one voted for our one flipped scum.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Oredigger77](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/oredigger77/32/3181_2.png) [@Oredigger77](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oredigger77)\
**Post date:** [October 19, 2009, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/1705 "2009-10-19T20:18:57Z")

</div>

> [@Alka\_Seltzer](#):
>
> Chronos’ program would be useless at this stage. A problem we have with data analysis is that no-one voted for our one flipped scum.

That’s true that his program wouldn’t show anything yet but he’s pulled it out in the past just to show he was using it even if he wasn’t getting any information yet. Also the only time he has used any logical analysis is when he was shooting down other people’s ideas.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [October 19, 2009, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/1706 "2009-10-19T20:35:26Z")

</div>

> [@](#):
>
> Chronos’ program would be useless at this stage. A problem we have with data analysis is that no-one voted for our one flipped scum.

My program can in principle get some results even without any flipped Scum at all, but it generally takes three full Days of data to say anything meaningful at all, and I suspect that it’ll take longer than that this time, since this is such a large game. I can run it once I get home and post the results if everyone wants, but I can tell you right now that they won’t be very informative yet.

The longer a game goes on, the more information there is, and I do best with a lot of information. Those of you who are remembering all of the analysis I’ve done in past games have probably been looking at my performance in the late game. Here, we’re still on Day 3, which is pretty early for a game this size. Expect my contributions to improve as time goes on.

And I have no idea how to defend against the claim that I might be a Serial Killer, since, so far as I can tell, a Serial Killer’s play should be indistinguishable from a random Townie’s. Scum (and some power roles) have extra information that most folks don’t have, and that extra information will guide all their decisions, so they can in principle be found out, but a Serial Killer only knows as much as a vanilla. I would expect any given player given the Serial Killer to play the same way (by Day, at least) as the same person given a vanilla Town role. As for my observation that I think we probably have a Vig rather than a serial killer, that was just a best guess based on the public information. I’ll grant that it’s possible that we have a Serial Killer who’s trying to look Townish in order to later fake a Vig claim.

In fact, let me just get that out in the open: I am not a killing role, and I have never had any intention of claiming a killing role. I decline to say at this point whether I have some other power, but I’m definitely not false-claiming Vig.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![GuiriEnEspana](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bc79bd/32.png) [@GuiriEnEspana](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GuiriEnEspana)\
**Post date:** [October 19, 2009, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/1707 "2009-10-19T20:44:09Z")

</div>

> [@Chronos](#):
>
> Quoth **Normal Phase** :Does anyone who saw the movie know the answer to this? Of course, this game might not completely follow the flavor of the movie, but it’s at least a start..

I saw the movie a long tim ago I googled this and, apart from some web nanny sites warning parents that people drink alcohol in the film, found the (very short) movie script.

One of the characters, Jessica, buys a round of scotch for the team although the script doesn’t mention if she drank any herself. In another scene Jessica says that Screamers can smile, cry, bleed and f\*\*\* leading us to believe that they’ve become fully functional human beings (type 4). This is the same character who kills her clone in order to protect her love interest.

After the bar scene one of the characters is singled out as a possible screamer because he didn’t actually drink any of his scotch - but he turned out to be human.

So, based on the movie alone, it seems a barman does have a role to play with Screamers although I’ve no idea what happens to them after a few shorts.

[Nitpick warning]  
6pm EST is 11pm UK (GMT+1, although summer time should end shortly).  
[/nitpick warning]

However a Tuesday or Thursday vote sounds good to me. A vote on Wednesday will push the leader-vote to Sat/Sun.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [October 19, 2009, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/1708 "2009-10-19T22:42:49Z")

</div>

Since folks have been requesting it, my vote-analysis program:[spoiler]

```auto

[noparse]

#include <stdio.h>
#define n_players 24	/* Number of players under analysis */
#define max_scum 6	/* Maximum expected number of Scum */
#define min_scum 5	/* Minimum expected number of Scum */
#define n_loop 16777216	/* 2^n_players */
#define margin 0	/* How much Scummier than marginal the Scum are */

main()
{
  int players[n_players];	/* Stores the alignment of each player. 0 = Town, 1 = Scum */
  unsigned int players_binary;
  unsigned int players_binary_shifting;
  char names[n_players][26] = {"Tom Scud", "tiltawhirl", "Normal Phase", "jpei", "Freudian Slit", "Boozahol Squid, PI", "Chronos", "USCDiver", "peekercpa", "BillMC", "AllWalker", "ColdPhoenix/Scuba_Ben", "TexCat", "Drain Bead", "Jimmy Chitwood", "amrussell", "DaphneBlack", "Gryff", "One and Only Wanderers", "Thing Fish", "Alka Seltzer", "Oredigger77", "Nanook/Guiri", "CatInASuit"};
  int n_scum;
  int buses; /* Number of times Scum voted for Scum */
  int attacks; /* Number of times Town voted for Scum */
  int i;
  int score[n_players];
  int total_scenarios = 0;
  int town_votes;
  int scum_votes;
  for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) score* = 0; /* Initialize everyone's score */

  for(players_binary=0; players_binary < n_loop; players_binary++) {
    players_binary_shifting = players_binary;
    for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) {
      players* = players_binary_shifting & 1; /* Populate the players[] array according to the value of players_binary */
      players_binary_shifting = players_binary_shifting >> 1;
    }

    n_scum = 0;
    buses = 0;
    attacks = 0;
    for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) {
      if(players* == 1) n_scum++;	/* Count the number of Scum */
    }

/* Count number of votes cast by Town */
    town_votes = 0;
    if(!players[0]) town_votes += 11; // Tom Scud cast 11
    if(!players[1]) town_votes += 4; // tiltawhirl cast 4
    if(!players[2]) town_votes += 5; // Normal Phase cast 5
    if(!players[3]) town_votes += 1; // jpei cast 1
    if(!players[4]) town_votes += 3; // Freudian Slit cast 3
    if(!players[5]) town_votes += 5; // Boozahol Squid, PI cast 5
    if(!players[6]) town_votes += 4; // Chronos cast 4
    if(!players[7]) town_votes += 0; // USCDiver cast 0
    if(!players[8]) town_votes += 9; // peekercpa cast 9
    if(!players[9]) town_votes += 1; // BillMC cast 1
    if(!players[10]) town_votes += 5; // AllWalker cast 5
    if(!players[11]) town_votes += 4; // ColdPhoenix/Scuba_Ben cast 4
    if(!players[12]) town_votes += 2; // TexCat cast 2
    if(!players[13]) town_votes += 6; // Drain Bead cast 6
    if(!players[14]) town_votes += 2; // Jimmy Chitwood cast 2
    if(!players[15]) town_votes += 3; // amrussell cast 3
    if(!players[16]) town_votes += 4; // DaphneBlack cast 4
    if(!players[17]) town_votes += 2; // Gryff cast 2
    if(!players[18]) town_votes += 2; // One and Only Wanderers cast 2
    if(!players[19]) town_votes += 5; // Thing Fish cast 5
    if(!players[20]) town_votes += 5; // Alka Seltzer cast 5
    if(!players[21]) town_votes += 4; // Oredigger77 cast 4
    if(!players[22]) town_votes += 6; // Nanook/Guiri cast 6
    if(!players[23]) town_votes += 2; // CatInASuit cast 2

/* Count number of votes cast by Scum */
    scum_votes = 0;
    if(players[0]) scum_votes += 11; // Tom Scud cast 2
    if(players[1]) scum_votes += 2; // tiltawhirl cast 2
    if(players[2]) scum_votes += 2; // Normal Phase cast 2
    if(players[3]) scum_votes += 1; // jpei cast 1
    if(players[4]) scum_votes += 1; // Freudian Slit cast 1
    if(players[5]) scum_votes += 2; // Boozahol Squid, PI cast 2
    if(players[6]) scum_votes += 2; // Chronos cast 2
    if(players[7]) scum_votes += 0; // USCDiver cast 0
    if(players[8]) scum_votes += 3; // peekercpa cast 3
    if(players[9]) scum_votes += 1; // BillMC cast 1
    if(players[10]) scum_votes += 2; // AllWalker cast 2
    if(players[11]) scum_votes += 2; // ColdPhoenix/Scuba_Ben cast 2
    if(players[12]) scum_votes += 1; // TexCat cast 1
    if(players[13]) scum_votes += 2; // Drain Bead cast 2
    if(players[14]) scum_votes += 1; // Jimmy Chitwood cast 1
    if(players[15]) scum_votes += 2; // amrussell cast 2
    if(players[16]) scum_votes += 1; // DaphneBlack cast 1
    if(players[17]) scum_votes += 2; // Gryff cast 2
    if(players[18]) scum_votes += 0; // One and Only Wanderers cast 0
    if(players[19]) scum_votes += 3; // Thing Fish cast 3
    if(players[20]) scum_votes += 2; // Alka Seltzer cast 2
    if(players[21]) scum_votes += 2; // Oredigger77 cast 2
    if(players[22]) scum_votes += 2; // Nanook/Guiri cast 2
    if(players[23]) scum_votes += 2; // CatInASuit cast 2

/* Count number of buses-- Only counting final votes */
    if(players[17] && players[8]) buses++; // Gryff voted peekercpa
    if(players[21] && players[13]) buses++; // Oredigger77 voted Drain Bead
    if(players[19] && players[5]) buses++; // Thing Fish voted Boozahol Squid, PI
    if(players[5] && players[8]) buses++; // Boozahol Squid, PI voted peekercpa
    if(players[23] && players[13]) buses++; // CatInASuit voted Drain Bead
    if(players[9] && players[5]) buses++; // BillMC voted Boozahol Squid, PI
    if(players[14] && players[9]) buses++; // Jimmy Chitwood voted BillMC
    if(players[13] && players[9]) buses++; // Drain Bead voted BillMC
    if(players[15] && players[23]) buses++; // amrussell voted CatInASuit
    if(players[11] && players[8]) buses++; // ColdPhoenix/Scuba_Ben voted peekercpa
    if(players[1] && players[9]) buses++; // tiltawhirl voted BillMC
    if(players[21] && players[11]) buses++; // Oredigger77 voted ColdPhoenix/Scuba_Ben
    if(players[4] && players[3]) buses++; // Freudian Slit voted jpei
    if(players[20] && players[9]) buses++; // Alka Seltzer voted BillMC
    if(players[16] && players[9]) buses++; // DaphneBlack voted BillMC
    if(players[10] && players[9]) buses++; // AllWalker voted BillMC
    if(players[6] && players[5]) buses++; // Chronos voted Boozahol Squid, PI
    if(players[12] && players[9]) buses++; // TexCat voted BillMC
    if(players[0] && players[23]) buses++; // Tom Scud voted CatInASuit
    if(players[3] && players[9]) buses++; // jpei voted BillMC
    if(players[8] && players[0]) buses++; // peekercpa voted Tom Scud
    if(players[2] && players[6]) buses++; // Normal Phase voted Chronos
    if(players[22] && players[11]) buses++; // Nanook/Guiri voted ColdPhoenix/Scuba_Ben
    if(players[13] && players[16]) buses++; // Drain Bead voted DaphneBlack
    if(players[17] && players[16]) buses++; // Gryff voted DaphneBlack
    if(players[19] && players[16]) buses++; // Thing Fish voted DaphneBlack
    if(players[6] && players[16]) buses++; // Chronos voted DaphneBlack
    if(players[10] && players[4]) buses++; // AllWalker voted Freudian Slit
    if(players[15] && players[19]) buses++; // amrussell voted Thing Fish
    if(players[8] && players[5]) buses++; // peekercpa voted Boozahol Squid, PI
    if(players[5] && players[19]) buses++; // Boozahol Squid, PI voted Thing Fish
    if(players[19] && players[4]) buses++; // Thing Fish voted Freudian Slit
    if(players[22] && players[19]) buses++; // Nanook/Guiri voted Thing Fish
    if(players[23] && players[19]) buses++; // CatInASuit voted Thing Fish
    if(players[2] && players[19]) buses++; // Normal Phase voted Thing Fish
    if(players[11] && players[19]) buses++; // ColdPhoenix/Scuba_Ben voted Thing Fish
    if(players[20] && players[8]) buses++; // Alka Seltzer voted peekercpa
    if(players[1] && players[4]) buses++; // tiltawhirl voted Freudian Slit
    if(players[0] && players[4]) buses++; // Tom Scud voted Freudian Slit
    if(players[8] && players[4]) buses++; // peekercpa voted Freudian Slit

/* Count number of attacks */

    if(!players[5] && players[20]) attacks++; // Boozahol Squid, PI voted Alka Seltzer
    if(!players[2] && players[3]) attacks++; // Normal Phase voted jpei
    if(!players[18] && players[3]) attacks++; // One and Only Wanderers voted jpei
    if(!players[4] && players[3]) attacks++; // Freudian Slit voted jpei
    if(!players[8] && players[0]) attacks++; // peekercpa voted Tom Scud
    if(!players[6] && players[18]) attacks++; // Chronos voted One and Only Wanderers
    if(!players[0] && players[8]) attacks++; // Tom Scud voted peekercpa
    if(!players[13] && players[6]) attacks++; // Drain Bead voted Chronos
    if(!players[14] && players[8]) attacks++; // Jimmy Chitwood voted peekercpa
    if(!players[10] && players[8]) attacks++; // AllWalker voted peekercpa
    if(!players[17] && players[8]) attacks++; // Gryff voted peekercpa
    if(!players[22] && players[8]) attacks++; // Nanook/Guiri voted peekercpa
    if(!players[15] && players[13]) attacks++; // amrussell voted Drain Bead
    if(!players[2] && players[13]) attacks++; // Normal Phase voted Drain Bead
    if(!players[20] && players[13]) attacks++; // Alka Seltzer voted Drain Bead
    if(!players[16] && players[13]) attacks++; // DaphneBlack voted Drain Bead
    if(!players[4] && players[13]) attacks++; // Freudian Slit voted Drain Bead
    if(!players[19] && players[8]) attacks++; // Thing Fish voted peekercpa
    if(!players[12] && players[3]) attacks++; // TexCat voted jpei
    if(!players[11] && players[13]) attacks++; // ColdPhoenix/Scuba_Ben voted Drain Bead
    if(!players[13] && players[2]) attacks++; // Drain Bead voted Normal Phase
    if(!players[1] && players[13]) attacks++; // tiltawhirl voted Drain Bead
    if(!players[21] && players[13]) attacks++; // Oredigger77 voted Drain Bead
    if(!players[21] && players[8]) attacks++; // Oredigger77 voted peekercpa
    if(!players[0] && players[21]) attacks++; // Tom Scud voted Oredigger77
    if(!players[5] && players[0]) attacks++; // Boozahol Squid, PI voted Tom Scud
    if(!players[5] && players[21]) attacks++; // Boozahol Squid, PI voted Oredigger77
    if(!players[13] && players[21]) attacks++; // Drain Bead voted Oredigger77
    if(!players[19] && players[5]) attacks++; // Thing Fish voted Boozahol Squid, PI
    if(!players[5] && players[8]) attacks++; // Boozahol Squid, PI voted peekercpa
    if(!players[0] && players[10]) attacks++; // Tom Scud voted AllWalker
    if(!players[8] && players[9]) attacks++; // peekercpa voted BillMC
    if(!players[23] && players[13]) attacks++; // CatInASuit voted Drain Bead
    if(!players[20] && players[3]) attacks++; // Alka Seltzer voted jpei
    if(!players[10] && players[6]) attacks++; // AllWalker voted Chronos
    if(!players[0] && players[12]) attacks++; // Tom Scud voted TexCat
    if(!players[16] && players[3]) attacks++; // DaphneBlack voted jpei
    if(!players[9] && players[5]) attacks++; // BillMC voted Boozahol Squid, PI
    if(!players[14] && players[9]) attacks++; // Jimmy Chitwood voted BillMC
    if(!players[13] && players[9]) attacks++; // Drain Bead voted BillMC
    if(!players[22] && players[3]) attacks++; // Nanook/Guiri voted jpei
    if(!players[21] && players[4]) attacks++; // Oredigger77 voted Freudian Slit
    if(!players[15] && players[23]) attacks++; // amrussell voted CatInASuit
    if(!players[11] && players[8]) attacks++; // ColdPhoenix/Scuba_Ben voted peekercpa
    if(!players[8] && players[11]) attacks++; // peekercpa voted ColdPhoenix/Scuba_Ben
    if(!players[0] && players[3]) attacks++; // Tom Scud voted jpei
    if(!players[1] && players[9]) attacks++; // tiltawhirl voted BillMC
    if(!players[21] && players[11]) attacks++; // Oredigger77 voted ColdPhoenix/Scuba_Ben
    if(!players[4] && players[3]) attacks++; // Freudian Slit voted jpei
    if(!players[10] && players[3]) attacks++; // AllWalker voted jpei
    if(!players[20] && players[9]) attacks++; // Alka Seltzer voted BillMC
    if(!players[16] && players[9]) attacks++; // DaphneBlack voted BillMC
    if(!players[10] && players[9]) attacks++; // AllWalker voted BillMC
    if(!players[6] && players[5]) attacks++; // Chronos voted Boozahol Squid, PI
    if(!players[12] && players[9]) attacks++; // TexCat voted BillMC
    if(!players[0] && players[23]) attacks++; // Tom Scud voted CatInASuit
    if(!players[3] && players[9]) attacks++; // jpei voted BillMC
    if(!players[8] && players[0]) attacks++; // peekercpa voted Tom Scud
    if(!players[2] && players[6]) attacks++; // Normal Phase voted Chronos
    if(!players[22] && players[11]) attacks++; // Nanook/Guiri voted ColdPhoenix/Scuba_Ben
    if(!players[13] && players[16]) attacks++; // Drain Bead voted DaphneBlack
    if(!players[8] && players[0]) attacks++; // peekercpa voted Tom Scud
    if(!players[17] && players[16]) attacks++; // Gryff voted DaphneBlack
    if(!players[6] && players[0]) attacks++; // Chronos voted Tom Scud
    if(!players[0] && players[23]) attacks++; // Tom Scud voted CatInASuit
    if(!players[19] && players[16]) attacks++; // Thing Fish voted DaphneBlack
    if(!players[20] && players[5]) attacks++; // Alka Seltzer voted Boozahol Squid, PI
    if(!players[11] && players[4]) attacks++; // ColdPhoenix/Scuba_Ben voted Freudian Slit
    if(!players[19] && players[5]) attacks++; // Thing Fish voted Boozahol Squid, PI
    if(!players[18] && players[16]) attacks++; // One and Only Wanderers voted DaphneBlack
    if(!players[16] && players[2]) attacks++; // DaphneBlack voted Normal Phase
    if(!players[22] && players[4]) attacks++; // Nanook/Guiri voted Freudian Slit
    if(!players[6] && players[16]) attacks++; // Chronos voted DaphneBlack
    if(!players[10] && players[4]) attacks++; // AllWalker voted Freudian Slit
    if(!players[8] && players[13]) attacks++; // peekercpa voted Drain Bead
    if(!players[15] && players[19]) attacks++; // amrussell voted Thing Fish
    if(!players[13] && players[5]) attacks++; // Drain Bead voted Boozahol Squid, PI
    if(!players[22] && players[5]) attacks++; // Nanook/Guiri voted Boozahol Squid, PI
    if(!players[0] && players[5]) attacks++; // Tom Scud voted Boozahol Squid, PI
    if(!players[0] && players[19]) attacks++; // Tom Scud voted Thing Fish
    if(!players[2] && players[13]) attacks++; // Normal Phase voted Drain Bead
    if(!players[8] && players[5]) attacks++; // peekercpa voted Boozahol Squid, PI
    if(!players[5] && players[19]) attacks++; // Boozahol Squid, PI voted Thing Fish
    if(!players[19] && players[4]) attacks++; // Thing Fish voted Freudian Slit
    if(!players[22] && players[19]) attacks++; // Nanook/Guiri voted Thing Fish
    if(!players[23] && players[19]) attacks++; // CatInASuit voted Thing Fish
    if(!players[1] && players[16]) attacks++; // tiltawhirl voted DaphneBlack
    if(!players[2] && players[19]) attacks++; // Normal Phase voted Thing Fish
    if(!players[11] && players[19]) attacks++; // ColdPhoenix/Scuba_Ben voted Thing Fish
    if(!players[20] && players[8]) attacks++; // Alka Seltzer voted peekercpa
    if(!players[0] && players[6]) attacks++; // Tom Scud voted Chronos
    if(!players[1] && players[4]) attacks++; // tiltawhirl voted Freudian Slit
    if(!players[8] && players[6]) attacks++; // peekercpa voted Chronos
    if(!players[0] && players[4]) attacks++; // Tom Scud voted Freudian Slit
    if(!players[8] && players[4]) attacks++; // peekercpa voted Freudian Slit
    if((min_scum<=n_scum) && (n_scum<=max_scum))	/* Throw out cases with wrong number of Scum */
    if((attacks*scum_votes) > (buses*town_votes + margin)) /* Throw out cases with Scum not voting Scummily */

/* Add other assumptions (delete or add any considered appropriate) */
    if(!players[6]) // Assume Chronos Town
    if(!players[9]) // BillMC came up Town
    if(players[14]) // Jimmy came up Scum
    if(!players[12]) // TexCat came up Town
    if(!players[3]) // jpei came up Town
    if(!players[15]) // amrussell came up Town
    if(!players[8]) // peeker came up Town
    
    if(players[20] || !players[5])	// Alka confirms Boozahol
    if(players[20] || !players[17])	// Alka confirms Gryff
    if(players[13] || !players[16])	// Drain Bead confirms Daphne

			{
      total_scenarios++;

/* Output all scenarios */
      for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) {
/* if(players* == 0) printf("%s ",names*); */
        if(players* == 1) { 
          printf("%s ",names*);
          score*++;
        }
      }
      printf("
");
    }
  }
  
/* Output scores */
  fprintf(stderr,"Total number of possibilities: %d
",total_scenarios);
  for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) fprintf(stderr,"%s	%d
",names*,score*);

  return(0);
}
[/noparse]

```

[/spoiler]

And the results:[spoiler]  
With assuming I’m Town:

Total number of possibilities: 3276  
Tom Scud 1231  
tiltawhirl 953  
Normal Phase 1003  
jpei 0  
Freudian Slit 895  
Boozahol Squid, PI 407  
Chronos 0  
USCDiver 964  
peekercpa 0  
BillMC 0  
AllWalker 999  
ColdPhoenix/Scuba\_Ben 823  
TexCat 0  
Drain Bead 1307  
Jimmy Chitwood 3276  
amrussell 0  
DaphneBlack 263  
Gryff 422  
One and Only Wanderers 998  
Thing Fish 754  
Alka Seltzer 1662  
Oredigger77 921  
Nanook/Guiri 882  
CatInASuit 932

Without assuming I’m Town:

Total number of possibilities: 4674  
Tom Scud 1635  
tiltawhirl 1300  
Normal Phase 1264  
jpei 0  
Freudian Slit 1250  
Boozahol Squid, PI 497  
Chronos 1398  
USCDiver 1303  
peekercpa 0  
BillMC 0  
AllWalker 1347  
ColdPhoenix/Scuba\_Ben 1153  
TexCat 0  
Drain Bead 1727  
Jimmy Chitwood 4674  
amrussell 0  
DaphneBlack 303  
Gryff 522  
One and Only Wanderers 1338  
Thing Fish 1071  
Alka Seltzer 2183  
Oredigger77 1278  
Nanook/Guiri 1203  
CatInASuit 1295

[/spoiler]I’m assuming that there are at least five Scum, since **Jimmy** was identified as Model 5, and no more than six, because more than that would be badly unbalanced. The number after each name is the number of scenarios in which that person is Scum; that number divided by the total number of scenarios can roughly be considered to be the probability that that person is Scum. Don’t pay too much heed to the numbers for **Alka Seltzer** or **Drain Bead** ; they’re higher than they would otherwise be because they’ve provided claims concerning the alignments of other players, and the program doesn’t have any way of judging the claims on their own merits.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Drain\_Bead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e47774/32.png) [@Drain\_Bead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Drain_Bead)\
**Post date:** [October 20, 2009, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/1709 "2009-10-20T00:31:10Z")

</div>

Crazy. This is the first time I’ve seen this. I don’t want to hijack the thread playing with your cool toy, but if possible **(Mods, is this okay?)** could you send me the results in a PM if you run it assuming I’m Town?

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\
**Post date:** [October 20, 2009, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/1710 "2009-10-20T00:56:45Z")

</div>

> [@Drain\_Bead](#):
>
> Crazy. This is the first time I’ve seen this. I don’t want to hijack the thread playing with your cool toy, but if possible **(Mods, is this okay?)** could you send me the results in a PM if you run it assuming I’m Town?

No pming each other about the game.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![AllWalker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/db5fbb/32.png) [@AllWalker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AllWalker)\
**Post date:** [October 20, 2009, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/1711 "2009-10-20T01:25:24Z")

</div>

5 Scum, with 1 on them an Investigator? That is a lot. I suppose this game is big and powered, so that might not be too far off, but that is one hell of a Scum team.

In other news, my participation will be low over next few days. Sorry, but I should be back before the end of the Day.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Trepa\_Mayfield](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/edb3f5/32.png) [@Trepa\_Mayfield](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trepa_Mayfield)\
**Post date:** [October 20, 2009, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/1712 "2009-10-20T01:45:16Z")

</div>

> [@Drain\_Bead](#):
>
> Crazy. This is the first time I’ve seen this. I don’t want to hijack the thread playing with your cool toy, but if possible **(Mods, is this okay?)** could you send me the results in a PM if you run it assuming I’m Town?

Since he provided the source code, can’t you just run it on your own machine?

(P.S. Is that C or C++? It looks like C++)

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [October 20, 2009, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/1713 "2009-10-20T02:32:52Z")

</div>

It’s c. The only thing ++ about it is the occasional use of // for comments, but gcc will handle those no problem.

**Drain** , you’re player 13 on the list, so if you want to run it assuming your own innocence, add a line that says

```auto

    if(!players[13])

```

to the “Add other assumptions” section at the bottom.

Oh, and when you run it, I recommend re-directing output. If you don’t, it’ll print out all 3276 or whatever possibilities (useful in endgame, when it gets down to about 10-20 scenarios). The summary information like what I posted here is output to stderr, not stdout, so it’ll still show up.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![USCDiver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uscdiver/32/354_2.png) [@USCDiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/USCDiver)\
**Post date:** [October 20, 2009, 4:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/1714 "2009-10-20T04:58:14Z")

</div>

> [@Chronos](#):
>
> I’m assuming that there are at least five Scum, since **Jimmy** was identified as Model 5, and no more than six, because more than that would be badly unbalanced. The number after each name is the number of scenarios in which that person is Scum; that number divided by the total number of scenarios can roughly be considered to be the probability that that person is Scum. Don’t pay too much heed to the numbers for **Alka Seltzer** or **Drain Bead** ; they’re higher than they would otherwise be because they’ve provided claims concerning the alignments of other players, and the program doesn’t have any way of judging the claims on their own merits.

Oh hell! Is this the same program you’ve used in previous games? Has it ever been shown to provide any useful information? Has it been updated? If I recall correctly, your major assumptions are number of scum and the ‘fact’ that scum are more likely to vote for Town than to vote for Scum. Am I correct?

**Vote Chronos**

Mostly for the things others have pointed out, but also for bring up a program that, in my experience, has done nothing but distract discussion without providing useful information.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Gryff](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/919ad9/32.png) [@Gryff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gryff)\
**Post date:** [October 20, 2009, 6:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/1715 "2009-10-20T06:37:44Z")

</div>

**Normal Phase**

> [@](#):
>
> – gryff and his questionably-useful items get no pressure post-claim despite the claim remaining incomplete

Huh? Would you care to provide a little more detail on what you think is lacking here?

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![GuiriEnEspana](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bc79bd/32.png) [@GuiriEnEspana](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GuiriEnEspana)\
**Post date:** [October 20, 2009, 7:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/1716 "2009-10-20T07:00:48Z")

</div>

> [@GuiriEnEspana](#):
>
> 6pm EST is 11pm UK (GMT+1, although summer time should end shortly).

@ **Alka** , I see you are in the UK so 1pm EST / 6pm GMT seems like an ideal time to place the leader vote.

@ **Chronos** , **Thing Fish** was lynched and turned up Town so that will affect your calculations. Also there were 3 or 4 stalling votes placed on **Boozy** in response to **Alka** ’s claim and request to vote **Boozy** to ensure he didn’t place his vote.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![One\_And\_Only\_Wanderers](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/838e76/32.png) [@One\_And\_Only\_Wanderers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/One_And_Only_Wanderers)\
**Post date:** [October 20, 2009, 7:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/1717 "2009-10-20T07:30:08Z")

</div>

> [@USCDiver](#):
>
> **Vote Chronos**
> 
> Mostly for the things others have pointed out, but also for bring up a program that, in my experience, has done nothing but distract discussion without providing useful information.

Really? He was _asked_ to bring in the program, he said he hadn’t used it yet because it was too early to get useful info out of it, but ran it anyway at Oredigger’s request, and you are using this as vote reasoning?

I am inclined to vote you right now, but I will examine your previous posts before making that decision.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![One\_And\_Only\_Wanderers](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/838e76/32.png) [@One\_And\_Only\_Wanderers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/One_And_Only_Wanderers)\
**Post date:** [October 20, 2009, 7:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/1718 "2009-10-20T07:32:33Z")

</div>

NETA

in fact I will vote right now. a “Me too” vote on the wagon, with an extremely flawed (IMO) extra justification to make it look not like a “Me too” vote

**vote USCDiver**

Still going to look at your history. will post on it later

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![One\_And\_Only\_Wanderers](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/838e76/32.png) [@One\_And\_Only\_Wanderers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/One_And_Only_Wanderers)\
**Post date:** [October 20, 2009, 8:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/1719 "2009-10-20T08:03:50Z")

</div>

> [@USCDiver](#):
>
> Can you explain why it is you’re assuming **TexCat** was killed by Scum?

Been through USC’s posts, wasn’t able to find anything damning, on the contrary, appears town to me.

**unvote USCDiver**

I did find one interesting post, the one quoted above directed at Guiri. This is where I will be looking now.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![One\_And\_Only\_Wanderers](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/838e76/32.png) [@One\_And\_Only\_Wanderers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/One_And_Only_Wanderers)\
**Post date:** [October 20, 2009, 8:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938/1720 "2009-10-20T08:47:40Z")

</div>

Just had a thought whilst re-reading.

We all need to think about the ramifications of a politician being in the game, combined with the leader mechanism.

[Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938.md?page=85)

[Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/screamers-mafia/510938.md?page=87)