# Scum mafia: On Cecil pond \[Game Over\] **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [January 24, 2010, 5:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202 "2010-01-24T05:10:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 20
**Author:** ![Freudian\_Slit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/5daacb/32.png) [@Freudian\_Slit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Freudian_Slit)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2010, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/381 "2010-01-31T15:55:52Z")
Cue, unless those are really polite, well organized debaters. ---
**Author:** ![sachertorte](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sachertorte/32/3727_2.png) [@sachertorte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sachertorte)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2010, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/382 "2010-01-31T15:56:31Z")
> [@Meeko](#): > > I am looking at a total of five people (I’m counting Peeker), and I am looking at a pool of 21 unconfirmed players. I’m betting one of them is scum. Just a point of clarification. _Any_ set of 5 players is likely to contain at least one scum. Warning: Math [spoiler]Let us first assume that the game contains 5 scum. The number could be 4 or 6, but is unlikely to deviate significantly far from 5. For this analysis I will also ignore any possible third parties. Then the probability that any random set of five players contains at least one scum is: 1 - P(set of five contains all Town) = 1 - (16/21)_(15/20)_(14/19)_(13/18)_(12/17) which equals 1-0.21 = 0.79 [/spoiler] In other words, any random set of 5 players has about an 80% chance of containing at least one scum. **Meeko** , are you saying that due to the circumstances of the **peeker** situation you feel that the probability of there being at least one scum amongst the players involved is above 80%? Do you feel this has a level of significance above any other random set of five? Personally, I don’t. I agree that one of those five is likely to be scum, but I also think that any set of five is likely to contain at least one scum. ---
**Author:** ![sachertorte](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sachertorte/32/3727_2.png) [@sachertorte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sachertorte)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2010, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/383 "2010-01-31T15:57:34Z")
Brunch time. More later… or tomorrow. ---
**Author:** ![special\_ed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5ac83/32.png) [@special\_ed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/special_ed)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2010, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/384 "2010-01-31T15:59:59Z")
> [@Freudian\_Slit](#): > > Cue, unless those are really polite, well organized debaters. the queue debate ---
**Author:** ![special\_ed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5ac83/32.png) [@special\_ed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/special_ed)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2010, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/385 "2010-01-31T16:06:51Z")
> [@special\_ed](#): > > the queue debate that should have said “Cue the queue debate” IN any case, I don’t want to get into a Jester or Bomb debate. I don’t care about those roles and think we need to lynch them anyway if we’re so inclined. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2010, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/386 "2010-01-31T16:08:47Z")
> [@special\_ed](#): > > And I guess this will test the theory that Meeko only votes for and suspects people who disagree with him. Funny you should mention that Ed. Do I agree with Peeker? Some time back in this game I did take up the cause of defending his play style. I spoke of golden geese and tried to force a fit of my play history to Peeker. I begin to question that now. I think we can agree that my post there was more in general, and not exclusive to Cecil Pond. Total 100% agreement was not to be found. * * * I can not begin to fully understand what Peeker does. Yes, I am often lumped in with him when it comes to the WTF style of Mafia. That doesn’t mean I understand him all of the time. I make Big Macs, Peeker serves up Whoppers. * * * Do I understand Peeker? I thought I did. On some level. In one game, Peeker was the fellow commuter I met on the bus. As my stop, on the way home was before his, I often wondered where he got off. We both worked at the same office complex, however. In this game, I compared my play to that of making a Big Mac, and I mentioned that at the same time, Peeker served up Whoppers. [The word choice of “serves up whoppers” was deliberate.] If I am honest with myself, I remind myself that I was lumped with Peeker long before I started playing Mafia. At that time, for a desperate need of better words, I did kinda hold the guy on a pedestal, or even higher. Could there be other people who play like me, and thus “understand” where I am coming from? I need to meet this Peeker guy, he seems kinda cool. And honestly, my first reaction when I found a completed game he had been in, was less that I had hoped for. This guy makes up names for people, and makes references to things at the drop of a hat. Not only are his thoughts his own, but you almost need a Peeker to English dictionary!! At the time I was introduced to Peeker, and for 6 games since then [This is my seventh] I kinda thought we would be always linked together. Indeed talk of “double E” names had begun, and names like Seeker of Truth and Beauty were thrown in. One case was made that ROo… toejam could in theory be thrown in, because of double O. I even referenced Double E in Colorless. No. I do not understand Peeker. I was kicked into his camp [for want of better words] and I was kinda kept there, a type of Mafia purgatory. I seriously wonder, if Peeker had not gone before me, if I would still be accepted here. We are not two peas of the same Pod. We are not cut of the same cloth. I thought we were. I thought a lot of things before this game. Most recently actions in the game have changed, to the point that I seriously have to look at things. I like Peeker a lot. That is why what I do next is difficult. > [@Meeko](#): > > I am looking at a total of five people (I’m counting Peeker), and I am looking at a pool of 21 unconfirmed players. I’m betting one of them is scum. > [@Meeko](#): > > Ok. I’m going to take a step further now. > > I still believe that Peeker + 4 will net at least one scum. > > @ **Fluid** > > First off, I’m not exactly sure what you mean by “vote on the record”, I assume it means that you are subscribing to Vote Early, Vote Often. If this is the case, then take my vote on you in the same vein. > > Again, on the pure math, we have 4 people on Peeker as I write this. If Peeker is scum, well I just hope I am around to vote him later in the game. Bur for now, I feel the scum is among his voters, and is not the Votee. I point out that I touched on my **Peeker** plus 4 = \>= 1 scum twice. > [@peekercpa](#): > > so it was a pseudo random vote based on policy. just to see what would happen. well, i can see what happened. either lazy town or opportunistic scum took the approach of “well shoot he has to be scum sometime” or “shoot this is way easy”. what’s gonna be fucked if the pseudo random crapped out green 00’s. > > either way when you get your wish and i get lysed and flip plankton you will be found out as either lazy town or scum. I wish I had that Peeker Dictionary about now. I think he is talking about, Roulette?!, can anyone confirm? > [@special\_ed](#): > > So, let me summarize to see if I understand… > > peeker put out a near random vote with no reasoning. > > peeker was called on it by Zeriel and others. > > peeker flipped out and got defensive and aggressive > > peeker decided that people who told him that a near random vote with no reasoning is bad and voted for one of the people pointing it out. > > peeker defends his vote on Zeriel with new reasoning that Zeriel is obviously too experienced to cast such a poor vote. He now claims that his near random vote with no reasoning was actually a Scum trap and he caught Zeriel. > > Is that about it? > [@peekercpa](#): > > yep. > > i a conniving little shit when i am niller. Thanks’s Ed. Thank’s Peeker for your confirmation. This helps a lot. …Wait a second. **That’s MY argument** with a new coat of paint on it!!! > [@peekercpa](#): > > and by the way. yeh, i think i’ve found at least one if not two scum in this interchange. It is one thing to fish [excuse the pun] for information. It is another thing when Meek.. I mean, when I hand you the fish and teach you how to cook it too. I think that I just handed a Scum Peeker a big box of ammo he can use to defend himself against being Scum. He has run out of information. If he uses my logic, I will have to agree with it! He was probably along the lines of “Oh, and it’s Meeko that is making this claim? I guess that is one vote for sure I won’t have to worry about…” \*\* There comes a time when I need to stop drinking the communion wine in the church of Peeker.\*\* \*\*Unvote Fluiddruid \*\* \*\*Vote Peeker. \*\* Did someone ask if I would ever do this? I just did. Peeker, frankly, and with all due respect, I like you, but I think I am about to lap you in terms of expressing my views with other players. If only I can look at your play and history anew from where I sit today. ---
**Author:** ![Freudian\_Slit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/5daacb/32.png) [@Freudian\_Slit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Freudian_Slit)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2010, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/387 "2010-01-31T16:09:36Z")
So what happens if someone is a jester or a bomb, or whatever? WIki says with a jester sometimes scum has the opportunity to kill two ppl that night if we kill the jester. Bomb role seems to be the same thing but nighttime? Again, I apologize, but i’m just really unfamiliar. If you think we should kill even if someone IS a jester or whatever, then I’m for killing peeker. JEster or not, he’s playing pretty anti town even for him. ---
**Author:** ![special\_ed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5ac83/32.png) [@special\_ed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/special_ed)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2010, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/388 "2010-01-31T16:16:47Z")
Bonus points to whoever can count the number of metaphors in Meeko’s post ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2010, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/389 "2010-01-31T16:19:09Z")
My posts have gotten longer as late. I revise as I go. One earlier draft of my post above, Fruedian, pondered if Peeker was a Jester as well. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2010, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/390 "2010-01-31T16:30:24Z")
> [@sachertorte](#): > > Just a point of clarification. _Any_ set of 5 players is likely to contain at least one scum. > > **Meeko** , are you saying that due to the circumstances of the **peeker** situation you feel that the probability of there being at least one scum amongst the players involved is above 80%? Do you feel this has a level of significance above any other random set of five? > Personally, I don’t. I agree that one of those five is likely to be scum, but I also think that any set of five is likely to contain at least one scum. Snipped. I would put my odds above 80%. I’m not sure how far above that I would go. I think a wagon did form on Peeker’s early votes. I think a Wagon needs new math. [[Chronos, do you still have your ““program””?]] I don’t see the need for distinction here. Peeker’s vote THEN seemed to me to be a bandwagon. I would rather look at a wagon entire, than a natural random sample. As you point out, I have good odds on one scum already. Why make more work here? Why ignore an intact wagon? > [@Meeko](#): > > I am looking at a total of five people (I’m counting Peeker), and I am looking at a pool of 21 unconfirmed players. I’m betting one of them is scum. > [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](#): > > I have to agree and it will be an interesting data point to keep in mind as the game progresses. > [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](#): > > Seems like we always have to have some abstract principle to chew on on Day 1. > > It used to be “random voting” or “lynch the lurker”/“what exactly is lurking?”. Now apparently it is Peeker. > [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](#): > > Yes, but there are potential silver linings. Scoop a small and manageable amount of muddy water out (such as Meeko mentioned and I concurred with) and under the right circumstances it can be easier to see the scum in the smaller sample. > > I’d rather do that than try and choose sides in the Peeker debate on Day 1 when we know jack shit about anyone or anything. Null tells abound in that debate, on both sides, so I’m inclined to let it marinate and mature for awhile. Assorted snipping of Mine and Cookies above. Cookies, you frankly seem eager to agree with me. I set out a group of five people that you are not in. You hold it up for all to see, and add your comments. Later, you comment on why we are all voting on Peeker. Do you want town cred by looking at a bandwagon, knowing that some fellow scum are in on it ? Is this because you are scum with Peeker, and you want town cred by hyping the “vote of the Summer” OR is it because you are scum with him, and you are trying to redirect the votes from him, and off of him ? Cookies, you ping me here. ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2010, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/391 "2010-01-31T16:31:13Z")
I have a request, that I cannot compel anyone to follow, but nonetheless: If you are currently voting for **peeker** , would you be willing to summarize your reasons specifically in three or four sentences? Not just, _he’s playing anti-Town_ or whatever, but “he has done X, Y, and Z, and those things are Scummy.” ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2010, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/392 "2010-01-31T16:31:59Z")
> [@Meeko](#): > > My posts have gotten longer as late. I revise as I go. > > One earlier draft of my post above, Fruedian, pondered if Peeker was a Jester as well. :smack: NETA : One earlier draft of my post above, Fruedian, **I** pondered if Peeker was a Jester as well. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2010, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/393 "2010-01-31T16:38:02Z")
> [@storyteller0910](#): > > I have a request, that I cannot compel anyone to follow, but nonetheless: > > If you are currently voting for **peeker** , would you be willing to summarize your reasons specifically in three or four sentences? Not just, _he’s playing anti-Town_ or whatever, but “he has done X, Y, and Z, and those things are Scummy.” Storyteller, do you want me to do this? [[My posts seem to average 45 minutes to an hour in creation for this game. God help the both of us if you do.]] ---
**Author:** ![special\_ed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5ac83/32.png) [@special\_ed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/special_ed)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2010, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/394 "2010-01-31T17:29:54Z")
> [@storyteller0910](#): > > I have a request, that I cannot compel anyone to follow, but nonetheless: > > If you are currently voting for **peeker** , would you be willing to summarize your reasons specifically in three or four sentences? Not just, _he’s playing anti-Town_ or whatever, but “he has done X, Y, and Z, and those things are Scummy.” Here is my summary of what’s occurred. I’ve included things that are **not** worthy of a vote only to put everything into context. The bolded statements are my reasons for voting 1. Peeker put out a vote on storyteller. 2. Peeker got defensive and aggressive when he took heat for the random vote. **3. Peeker singled out Zeriel and voted for him, claiming Zeriel should know better, while claiming that those voting for him were either lazy or Scum.** 3. Peeker asked Zeriel to prove that he said he was going to vote for a strong player (in an aggressive and vulgar fashion) 4. Zeriel provided the quote where peeker implied he was going to do that. **6. Peeker changed his story, claiming that his vote wasn’t random, but was, in fact, some sort of Scum trap.** **7. During all this time, peeker is playing the “this is how it’s been going for me, when I flip Town, you’ll see” card. (Many posts contain a variation on this, and it seems overkill on an emotional appeal to me.)** 5. Peeker backpedals, claiming that he was ‘stirring the pot’ but maybe he has only caught Town on Town 6. Peeker tries to divert attention to those not participating in this ‘debacle’ saying there are Scum in that group. (Since that group contains most of the players, this seems quite obvious) **10. Peeker reverses his backpedal and says he thinks he’s magically found 1 or 2 Scum in his ‘trap’ (all the while not really explaining how people calling him out on poor play is a Scum trap. To me, it even seems the opposite, Scum could be quite content to either jump on peeker or to let the Town do it. Calling someone out on poor play isn’t really a Scum tell in my book.)** Without going back to do a thorough re-read or quote, I think this summarizes my vote on him. ---
**Author:** ![peekercpa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8baadc/32.png) [@peekercpa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/peekercpa)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2010, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/395 "2010-01-31T17:47:39Z")
**ed**. what’s kind of comical is that you will so look like an ass when i flip town. ---
**Author:** ![peekercpa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8baadc/32.png) [@peekercpa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/peekercpa)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2010, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/396 "2010-01-31T17:51:03Z")
neta: and no jester or bomber. just niller. you folks are adorable, seriously. ---
**Author:** ![peekercpa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8baadc/32.png) [@peekercpa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/peekercpa)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2010, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/397 "2010-01-31T17:55:54Z")
btw. **ed** is lying. when i flip town please lynch him. ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2010, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/398 "2010-01-31T18:00:27Z")
(Just got caught up. More is pending, but I just saw this and wanted to repond) > [@peekercpa](#): > > btw. **ed** is lying. when i flip town please lynch him. peeker, this kind of post really isn’t helpful. If ed is lying, explain how he is lying, please. I really don’t have the energy to pick through your posts again and compare them to what ed said you did. ---
**Author:** ![Natlaw](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a88e57/32.png) [@Natlaw](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Natlaw)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2010, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/399 "2010-01-31T18:03:20Z")
> [@peekercpa](#): > > **ed**. what’s kind of comical is that you will so look like an ass when i flip town. But a town or a scum one? I have no idea - how do you tell the difference? What specifically is he lying about? The difference is see with the others who voted for you is that he patiently responded you and got you to knot yourself up your answers. ---
**Author:** ![Freudian\_Slit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/5daacb/32.png) [@Freudian\_Slit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Freudian_Slit)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2010, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/400 "2010-01-31T18:05:57Z")
If you do flip vanilla, **peeker** , it’s not going to affect how I see special ed, incidentally, because he’s made the point that many people have made. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202.md?page=19) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202.md?page=21)