# Scum mafia: On Cecil pond \[Game Over\] **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [January 24, 2010, 5:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202 "2010-01-24T05:10:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 72
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2010, 1:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1421 "2010-02-23T13:20:26Z")
> [@amrussell](#): > > The key question for us is: is it possible to confirm your claim? I don’t think that’s the key question at all. Confirming the claim would be nice, sure, but in most cases, it’s going to be impossible. A game design where even a moderate number of Town roles is confirmable would be grossly imbalanced, because a simple mass claim on Day One could all but win it for the Town (in a game of 21, even as few as, like, six confirmable roles would make the Scum’s task nigh on impossible, because it slashes the lynch pool so much). Maybe it’s because I underwent the same quizzing that I’m sensitive to it, but I think we’re spending too much time trying to confirm power roles, here. It’s never a particularly good idea to try to decide from a position of imperfect information whether a role makes sense. If a claimed role is inconsistent, either internally or with something that we _know_ to be true, that’s an avenue worth pursuing. But “I don’t think that role sounds plausible” is a very dangerous path to travel down; I know that as a designer I have deliberately inserted roles that seem weird or even useless to confuse exactly this sort of analysis. We can’t say with any confidence what kind of roles Chronos would devise; with regard to Kelly’s claim all I can say with confidence is that: 1. I don’t really know what its significance might be and; 2. Nothing about it directly contradicts anything I already know for sure about the game. Thus, this claim does not affect my opinion of Kelly either way; I did not find him particularly suspicious before, and still don’t. * * * Once again, I assume that if I can develop a theory, the Scum can develop the same one, so I’ll give it a shot: Assuming he’s not lying, my best guess is that the names Kelly receives are (randomly?) selected from a list of either players who voted for the lynch leader, players who did _not_ vote for the lynch leader, or players who voted for Spawn. I think it’s a good but not certain bet that the names are Town. I mean, some of the possible options are: 1. **The names have nothing in common** : Nonsensical - it makes Kelly either a liar or a red herring. 2. **The names are all Scum** : Game-breaking. 3. **The names are all non-vanilla** : Basically a huge swing, because any reveal by Kelly would potentially alert Scum to power roles and give us little useful information. 4. **The names are all vanilla Town** : Possible, though it benefits the Scum almost as much as the Town if Kelly reveals the name. 5. **The names are all Town** : This seems the most likely option. Investigators have two purposes, generally: to confirm Town and to catch Scum. _If_ Kelly’s power functions in this way, it basically allows him to do the former - the more consistently valuable function of an investigator - while keeping him from doing the latter (which can be a swingy power). It’s actually sort of elegant, if it’s real - it kind of makes the balance less dynamic, because the investigator can’t have three lucky days and basically end the game quickly. It’s a Day power, so it (probably) can’t be role-blocked, but Kelly can’t direct it, which reduces its power by a notch. Actually, if that’s NOT Kelly’s role, it IS a role someone should have in a future game. The only thing that gives me pause in this theory is that failing to identify definitively what the names signify nerfs this power to the point where it’s almost useless (even if he’s telling the truth _and_ I’m right and all of Kelly’s names are Townies, we can’t rely on the information even once Kelly is dead or confirmed by other means, because we can’t know if I’m right until the game is over). ---
**Author:** ![Alka\_Seltzer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c89c15/32.png) [@Alka\_Seltzer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alka_Seltzer)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2010, 1:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1422 "2010-02-23T13:28:51Z")
Sorry, I haven’t had a proper chance to look at the game over the last few days. I’ll catch up and give you my thoughts when I get home tomorrow. ---
**Author:** ![Drain\_Bead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e47774/32.png) [@Drain\_Bead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Drain_Bead)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2010, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1423 "2010-02-23T13:32:26Z")
That’s why knowing if any of the names are dead is so important. I asked that question and didn’t get an answer. ---
**Author:** ![sachertorte](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sachertorte/32/3727_2.png) [@sachertorte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sachertorte)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2010, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1424 "2010-02-23T14:24:46Z")
> [@Drain\_Bead](#): > > And I will name our “drawback,” as it may affect what people think of our claims, and possibly others. We cannot strategize amongst ourselves, at any time. Totally not what I was expecting to be your drawback. I’ve always considered masons not talking in private to be the standard. Red Skeezix, JHC. Why do you keep doing this? If you are going to post the vote counts, at least have the courtesy of doing from the public perspective. I and everyone else don’t care that “you know you are Town.” Day 1 peekercpa: special\_ed, Mahaloth, Freudian Slit, USCDiver, Alka Seltzer, Zeriel, fluiddruid, TexCat Red Skeezix: ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, Oredigger77, Meeko, Natlaw, KellyCriterion fluiddruid: Drain Bead Freudian Slit: storyteller, DiggitCamara, sachertorte USCDiver: amrussell special\_ed: Rysto Day 2 fluiddruid: ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, Drain Bead, Oredigger77, DiggitCamara, Rysto sachertorte: storyteller Red Skeezix: Meeko KellyCriterion: Mahaloth, Zeriel storyteller: Freudian Slit, Alka Seltzer, sachertorte, fluiddruid Meeko: Natlaw Mahaloth: amrussell, KellyCriterion, TexCat Day 3 KellyCriterion: ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, Meeko, Mahaloth, Freudian Slit, Red Skeezix, Rysto Mahaloth: Drain Bead, storyteller, Alka Seltzer, Natlaw, amrussell, KellyCriterion, sachertorte storyteller: Drain Bead, DiggitCamara, TexCat sachertorte: Oredigger77 Rysto: storyteller Meeko: USCDiver > [@KellyCriterion](#): > > I do not know the significance of the names I receive, but I know that each summer, the name will be from a limited list of player names, and I know what the limited list is by the beginning of winter. At this point I feel you need to come clean and tell us everything you know. Your story keeps changing, and you are presumably in Australia or something. > [@](#): > > There’s actually been 4 summers if we count this one, and I need to run a correction here, _ **I have received three names** _ (at the beginning of summers 2, 3 and the current one), not just two as I initially stated (how am I going in my first game of Mafia?) The fact that you are changing your story in response to skepticism from only having 2 results is exceedingly bad for you. If you are Town, you sort of fucked up. Actually, if you are scum you sort of fucked up too. For this reason, I reiterate my feeling that you need to fully claim _everything_ you know. Hell, post all your PM’s word-for-word. I’d be fine with that. > [@](#): > > I am not doing anything that I am consciously aware of that decides which name I am going to receive.. but.. I do know by the beginning of winter that the name will come from a limited set of names, and I also know what that limited set of names is by the beginning of winter. You should tell us these lists too. > [@](#): > > _Erring on the side of vague..here’s a paraphrase_ > I am a rotifier. I am good at filtering things, I have an ear to the ground on things that others don’t, at the beginning of each summer I will receive a PM with a player name in it, this name will be from the list of players who \, and I am aligned with the pond. I’m all for allowing caution, but the fact that you’ve now changed your story removes any leeway I feel comfortable giving you. I move for KellyCriterion to reveal all. The fact that he has no clue as to what he is holding makes it all the more important that the information become public. i.e., It’s useless to him. Hopefully it will be useful to Town. > [@storyteller0910](#): > > Have any of the names you received been names of players who have subsequently died? Already asked and deferred. ---
**Author:** ![sachertorte](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sachertorte/32/3727_2.png) [@sachertorte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sachertorte)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2010, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1425 "2010-02-23T14:40:36Z")
I’m drawn to thinking about Meeko’s vote/unvote fest from a previous Day. My worry is that this voting pattern has exposed the Masons anyway. Remember, scum know who scum are so by eliminating the players Meeko voted for, those that voted for Meeko, as well as those who are actually scum, scum should be in a good position to deduce who the remaining masons are. Of course, that is no reason to publicly reveal the masons (quite the opposite really), but it is something that I’m worried about. On the other hand: Yay! more masons! (Is this game going to boil down to “hide the masons?”) ---
**Author:** ![Natlaw](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a88e57/32.png) [@Natlaw](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Natlaw)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2010, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1426 "2010-02-23T14:48:18Z")
> [@storyteller0910](#): > > It’s a Day power, so it (probably) can’t be role-blocked, but Kelly can’t direct it, which reduces its power by a notch. Actually, it sound like a Night power (three Nights, three results and gets results at Dawn). So my guess would be he is a passive Tracker: the possible group being all players alive that Night who either take an action or didn’t take an action and of those **Kelly** gets a random player name. If it is the former is the case then she has the names of players (town or scum) with a Night action (possibly power role, possibly scum killer although not sure if the scum do appoint a killer). If it is the latter then he has the names of players who did not take a Night action on a specific Night (probably vanilla, but might still be a power role if didn’t act - it does directly point to town or scum alignment either). Since **Kelly** knows exactly what it is, it’s his call to decide whether to claim Today or wait until she can counter-claim someone (but scum are now aware they might have been (randomly) tracked). ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2010, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1427 "2010-02-23T15:07:24Z")
At the very least, I think that **Kelly** needs to post his full role PM. I can’t see any possible downside to it and it will give us something to help evaluate his claim. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2010, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1428 "2010-02-23T15:19:46Z")
> [@storyteller0910](#): > > I don’t think that’s the key question at all. Confirming the claim would be nice, sure, but in most cases, it’s going to be impossible. OK, confirming may be a strong word but we do need to make a collective decision to lyse or not. Kelly, by virtue of having made a claim, is now categorically either a town power role or scum. If he is a town power role, the right move is for us to decide we trust him, and use his info as best we can. If he is scum, the right move is to lyse him. Leaving scum alive is bad; lysing a town power role is bad. Sitting on the fence, not actually lysing him but not trusting his info either, is also bad. We \*might \*defer the decision for one more Summer, given good reason to believe that that will make a difference. But letting it slide means that we’re either wasting a power-role, or not killing scum. That’s why I agree with sachertorte - we need to know a lot more about Kelly’s role, ASAP. 1. What’s the first list of names? Does it change each Winter or has it always been the same? What determines who goes on the list? 2. Why do you get the names you do get? What’s the common factor there? How are they picked from the first list? 3. What proof or evidence can you provide for your claim? ---
**Author:** ![sachertorte](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sachertorte/32/3727_2.png) [@sachertorte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sachertorte)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2010, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1429 "2010-02-23T17:15:39Z")
I’ve been pondering the KellyCriterion situation. At its core (at least for me) are two key elements, one in favor of Kelly’s telling the truth, and one against. Pro-Kelly: Essentially, KellyCriterion has claimed Detective. At the current state of the game, my expectation for a counter claim is high; that is, if KellyCriterion were lying, I would expect a pro-Town detective to counter-claim at this point. A counter-claim has not happened, therefore I am inclined to believe KellyCriterion. I reject the alternate explanation of there being no Detective as being infeasible. Anti-Kelly: The main problem I have with KellyCriterion is the change in story. Initially KellyCriterion announced he was in possession of two names. Most recently, Kelly has amended this story to having three names. I don’t like the inconsistency. There really isn’t any reason for it (scum or town), but there it is, staring me in the face. Taunting me. I guess I just don’t understand how Kelly could have gotten into this situation. As Town, I see no reason for the mistake. As scum, I see a larger possibility, especially in light of the fact that several players had made mention of being suspicious because there were only two names. On the balance, I’m inclined to believe KellyCriterion. The lack of counterclaim is the most compelling point for me so far. ---
**Author:** ![Freudian\_Slit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/5daacb/32.png) [@Freudian\_Slit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Freudian_Slit)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2010, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1430 "2010-02-23T17:25:53Z")
I’m wary of it, too. It is a small inconsistency, and I do remember **peeker** leaping all over the claimed cop in our last game and everyone else having to explain that, no, it was fine. This seems different, though. I’m not sure if it’s just a mistake made by an actual power role or the mistake of someone trying to keep his story straight. ---
**Author:** ![Freudian\_Slit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/5daacb/32.png) [@Freudian\_Slit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Freudian_Slit)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2010, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1431 "2010-02-23T17:26:53Z")
NETA: But there may not be another role to counterclaim. It may be entirely made up–we don’t know what roles we have. I don’t think the lack of counterclaim means anything. ---
**Author:** ![sachertorte](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sachertorte/32/3727_2.png) [@sachertorte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sachertorte)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2010, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1432 "2010-02-23T17:46:48Z")
> [@Freudian\_Slit](#): > > NETA: But there may not be another role to counterclaim. It may be entirely made up–we don’t know what roles we have. I don’t think the lack of counterclaim means anything. Correct. But I discount the possibility of there being no ‘detective’ type role in the game. Creating a game with no detective at all makes it too easy for scum. Not only would they not have to worry about investigations, but they can too easily win via false claiming detective. That is not to say that it can’t happen, but I find it highly unlikely. ---
**Author:** ![Natlaw](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a88e57/32.png) [@Natlaw](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Natlaw)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2010, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1433 "2010-02-23T18:16:12Z")
> [@sachertorte](#): > > Essentially, KellyCriterion has claimed Detective. At the current state of the game, my expectation for a counter claim is high; that is, if KellyCriterion were lying, I would expect a pro-Town detective to counter-claim at this point. A counter-claim has not happened, therefore I am inclined to believe KellyCriterion. I reject the alternate explanation of there being no Detective as being infeasible. > \ > On the balance, I’m inclined to believe KellyCriterion. The lack of counterclaim is the most compelling point for me so far. But he hasn’t claimed Detective (as in the normal alignment investigator) only that he gets player names from a unspecified group. I don’t think that a real alignment investigator, if there is one, should counter claim like you imply. Because it wouldn’t counter anything directly claimed by **Kelly** , only in the balance sense if a big mason group + tracker + detective +vigilante town is balanced. But since we don’t know the if all the claims are true or the scum amount or the scum powers that would be mostly guess work. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2010, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1434 "2010-02-23T18:47:22Z")
But why would a Scum role need the names of players given to them? ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2010, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1435 "2010-02-23T18:53:20Z")
> [@Meeko](#): > > But why would a Scum role need the names of players given to them? Meeko, we don’t know that Kelly’s telling the truth about the names. If he’s scum he’s probably made the whole thing up. ---
**Author:** ![Natlaw](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a88e57/32.png) [@Natlaw](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Natlaw)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2010, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1436 "2010-02-23T18:53:54Z")
I didn’t say it was a scum power, but if you were asking me: If Kelly is scum, he might not be telling the (whole) truth or he might be a scum investigator claiming truthfully (but I think that not as likely). ---
**Author:** ![Freudian\_Slit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/5daacb/32.png) [@Freudian\_Slit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Freudian_Slit)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2010, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1437 "2010-02-23T19:02:06Z")
> [@sachertorte](#): > > Correct. But I discount the possibility of there being no ‘detective’ type role in the game. Creating a game with no detective at all makes it too easy for scum. Not only would they not have to worry about investigations, but they can too easily win via false claiming detective. That is not to say that it can’t happen, but I find it highly unlikely. True. And then again, has **Kelly** claimed cop/detective? He’s claimed…something, but we don’t know what. Maybe there is in addition, a real cop who is staying silent because of whatever reason. I don’t know… ---
**Author:** ![Drain\_Bead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e47774/32.png) [@Drain\_Bead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Drain_Bead)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2010, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1438 "2010-02-23T19:56:37Z")
If I were a real cop, with maybe some investigations on dead or outed people, not much additional info, I don’t know if I’d counterclaim right now. For one, it’s unclear at this point if this is a detective claim at all. It’s not unheard of to have both a detective and a watcher. Counterclaiming puts a cop at risk on two fronts–first from the Scum, and then potentially from Town, if Kelly turns out to be Town as well. ---
**Author:** ![sachertorte](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sachertorte/32/3727_2.png) [@sachertorte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sachertorte)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2010, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1439 "2010-02-23T20:12:45Z")
Yes. All that is perfectly fine. I’m just telling you what I’m thinking. My personal view is that Kelly is _de facto_ claiming Detective and I plan on treating the situation as such. ---
**Author:** ![sachertorte](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sachertorte/32/3727_2.png) [@sachertorte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sachertorte)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2010, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1440 "2010-02-23T20:46:35Z")
I feel compelled to vote. I suppose I could be okay with a Rysto lynch, but the recent case by storyteller gives me pause. It’s not that I hate storyteller or anything :), it is mainly that the case strikes me as slightly odd. If I’m understand the case correctly, storyteller thinks that Rysto is scum because Rysto shifted his vote to KellyCriterion very late in the Day (which is true, and deserving of suspicion), what is not addressed is that Cookies(Plankton) also shifted her vote very late in the Day. Cookies’s vote came later than Rysto’s (by one or two posts if I remember correctly). Simply because Cookies is Town doesn’t prove anything about Rysto, but it does make me wonder. Furthermore, storyteller voted for Rysto at the end of Day Three. storyteller mentions two late votes (presumably Cookies’s) and does distinguish between the two, but I wonder if he has taken Cookie’s alignment into account. Also, since storyteller is such a fan, I find difficulty with the notion that scummy Rysto who had already voted (for DiggitCamara) would enter the fray at all. Storyteller spins an interesting tale about lynching an unknown KellyCriterion over claimed vanilla Mahaloth, but even this doesn’t really make sense to me. If we had lynched KellyCriterion and found him to be town, don’t you think the suspicion would fall on Rysto precisely for his late vote? I’m having difficulty accepting that lynching an unknown has some sort of draw that would get scum to stick his neck out like that. Furthermore, if KellyCriterion is scum, does Rysto’s move make any sense at all from a scum perspective? Finally, Rysto’s vote created a tie, not a definitive lynch leader in KellyCriterion. I’m having trouble seeing how Rysto’s vote fits storyteller’s case. On the other hand I’m quite dandy with lynching Rysto for the “pointing out PIS that really wasn’t PIS” reasoning. Though that is pretty weak for Day Four (not that we have much else to go on). I’m also keen on getting stabby with USCDiver and DiggitCamara. I should probably re-read their posts first, but I have nothing on these two (good or bad). And at this point in the game that makes me very concerned. I’m tempted to ask storyteller to eat them (Yum!), but with a possible hidden doc, that seems like as bad an idea as a mass claim at this point. Not to mention, I don’t think storyteller likes me very much right now and would not do as I ask anyway. Hi storyteller 😃 **vote USCDiver vote Spawn** [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202.md?page=71) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202.md?page=73)