# Scum mafia: On Cecil pond \[Game Over\] **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [January 24, 2010, 5:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202 "2010-01-24T05:10:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 86
**Author:** ![Alka\_Seltzer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c89c15/32.png) [@Alka\_Seltzer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alka_Seltzer)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2010, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1701 "2010-03-04T14:28:41Z")
Thinking about the game state, we aren’t in a great position right now but I think the game is still winnable. An outed probable 3rd party is likely to be the best opportunity we’ll get to test Story’s claim. If Story is town, a kill would give us 3 confirmed town (we’ll probably lose one over winter). If Red is what he says he is, we can’t trust him going forward. His motivation is to end the game as quickly as possible. The closer we get to lylo the less likely he is to vote for scum. At lylo itself, he would be playing against his win condition by voting town. ---
**Author:** ![Alka\_Seltzer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c89c15/32.png) [@Alka\_Seltzer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alka_Seltzer)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2010, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1702 "2010-03-04T14:39:44Z")
Looking at Diggit, I find him suspicious, but I’m not really confident in my read. I think Oredigger is more likely to be scum. > [@sachertorte](#): > > If Oredigger was scum, then he would have known that KellyCriterion was scum. He wouldn’t have to hedge his pursuit of Alka Seltzer with a non-sensical case for if KellyCriterion turned up Town. Oredigger only added that hedge when he was questioned on it, it was tacked on. Possible PIS, that he knew Kelly was scum. ---
**Author:** ![Alka\_Seltzer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c89c15/32.png) [@Alka\_Seltzer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alka_Seltzer)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2010, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1703 "2010-03-04T16:07:16Z")
Taking a quick look at the wagon against me: > [@Oredigger77](#): > > With Kelly coming up as scum I think it’s a no brainer to lynch Alka toDay. We’ve picked up a mislynch and his actions obviously saved Kelly a Day earlier. While it’s true he only created the tie I think combined with his other actions he is the scummiest person in the game. > > **Vote Alka > Vote Spawn** Oredigger leads off, I’ve already made it clear what I think of his vote. > [@Red\_Skeezix](#): > > Here is the choice that scum was facing last night: > 4: Oredigger77 > 8: Freudian Slit > 10: Alka Seltzer > > If Oredigger or Alka are scum it’s a 50-50 shot of hitting guaranteed unprotected mason, if they both are it’s 100%. > … > > It’s not particularly damning. It’s just more data. At this point I’m leaning towards Alka. The late voting tie on day 3 was pretty scummy, esp since if Alka was scum he’d know maha was town and story had broadcasted that he preferred the maha lynch, and would break a tie. To be honest, with a short think and not much research, it seems like Oredigger has voted for everyone surrounding the storyteller double lyse + claim mess. Oredigger was also named by Kelly, but that could just be coincidence. > > so for now, for what appears to be vote manipulation and some weak circumstantial analysis based on who was a mason possibility: > **vote Alka Seltzer > vote Spawn** There is some merit to the argument, and Red isn’t making it out to be stronger evidence than it is. Ignores the fact there are many reasons that scum might choose a night kill. This would be a great argument to make if Red was scum and knew the other non-masons were town, but I don’t think that is particularly likely. I don’t see how his claim could be made to work for scum, and the timing of it would be really strange, it undermines the case he is making against me. > [@USCDiver](#): > > I think your list is crap because for some reason it assumes Masons won’t ever vote for other Masons which is just as dangerous as assuming the same of Scum. However, I share your suspicions of \*\*AlkaSeltzer \*\*with regards to the non-lynch of \*\*KellyCriterion \*\*on Summer 3. > > For now, I’ll > > **Vote Spawn > Vote AlkaSeltzer** Rejects Red’s argument, but votes for me based on my vote of mahaloth ahead of Kelly. > [@Drain\_Bead](#): > > And what’s funny is that I didn’t think it was unclear at all, from the game rules post. And the fact that you did probably means that YOU aren’t plankton, either. Obviously if you had that role, you’d know for sure. > > Based on that and **Skeezik** ’s analysis above, I’m comfortable voting for you. > > **vote AlkaSeltzer** Drain confirmed town. > [@Meeko](#): > > Can of worms, this. > Also, Oredigger was in the short list of the “Mason Sudoku” that Skeezix posted. > > … > > Would a Newer player, cooking up and slipping on a false claim, have the experience needed to NOT include scum mates? > > o.O > > **Unvote all** > > **Vote Alka** > **Vote Digger** > [@Meeko](#): > > **Reasons for Alka : The unvote of Kelly late. > Reasons for Digger : The Mason Sudoku, and the Hail Mary fail by Kelly to confirm him.** This annoys me, Meeko can’t even be bothered to check his facts. **@Meeko** - I never voted Kelly, I did not unvote him. > [@amrussell](#): > > In other news, my back and forth with USCDiver has made me less convinced of my case. The way he’s defended himself “rings true”, for want of a better term - under pressure, he hasn’t gone uber-defensive, or OMGUSed, or shown up with a suspiciously well-prepared list of pro-town actions, just reiterated his points calmly.. > > **unvote USCDiver** > > By contrast, there are two aspects of Alka’s defense that I don’t like. One is the post where he, in fact, does list all the pro-town things he’s done (“I defended Drain before she claimed”). Who’s got a list like that to hand? > > The second is his “Looks like I’m done here” post. In my experience, townies (unless they’re very pissed off) usually go down swinging, cursing the rest of us for our purblind foolishness. The “oh well, nothing I can do” style of post is usually the province of scum, trying to look like they don’t care. > > So while I was in two minds about the original, vote-pattern based case against Alka, I think that under pressure he’s slipped a little. > \*\* > vote Alka\*\* Don’t like this vote at all, for the reasons given in #1688. Overall though, I don’t think my wagon is the best place to look for scum. My vote for mahaloth is a major point against me, and that will tend to lead to confirmation bias on the part of townies. ---
**Author:** ![Alka\_Seltzer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c89c15/32.png) [@Alka\_Seltzer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alka_Seltzer)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2010, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1704 "2010-03-04T16:22:17Z")
On amrussels vote, I’ll add the fact that my “list” consisted of 2 items, plus some quotes where I showed what i was previously thinking about mahaloth and kelly. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2010, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1705 "2010-03-04T16:45:21Z")
Vote count: Spawn 10 Alka Seltzer 6 Oredigger77 3 Storyteller0910 2 DiggitCamara 2 sachertorte 1 [del]1: special\_ed[/del] [del]2: ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies[/del] 3: Drain Bead – sachertorte (1577), Alka Seltzer (1636) 4: Oredigger77 – Alka Seltzer, Spawn 5: storyteller0910 6: Meeko – [del]sachertorte[/del] (1580-1648), [del]Spawn[/del] (1580-1630), Alka Seltzer (1630), Oredigger (1648) [del]7: Mahaloth [/del] [del]8: Freudian Slit[/del] 9: USCDiver – Spawn (1634), Alka Seltzer (1634) 10: Alka Seltzer – Spawn (1632), Oredigger (1656) [del]11: peekercpa[/del] 12: Natlaw – Spawn (1683), Oredigger (1691) [del]13: Zeriel[/del] 14: DiggitCamara – Storyteller (1596), Spawn (1596) 15: amrussell – [del]USCDiver[/del] (1635-1688), Alka Seltzer (1688), Spawn (1690) [del]16: KellyCriterion[/del] 17: Red Skeezix – Alka Seltzer (1629), Spawn (1629) 18: sachertorte – [del]Natlaw[/del] (1613-1660), Spawn (1613), [del]Oredigger[/del] (1660-1662), DiggitCamara (1693) [del]19: fluiddruid[/del] 20: TexCat – Spawn (1578), Storyteller (1578) 21: Rysto – DiggitCamara (1575), Spawn (1575) If there’s a lot of last-minute vote changes that I have to tabulate, the autumn post might be delayed by as much as two hours. Otherwise, though, it’ll be close to the scheduled time. ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2010, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1706 "2010-03-04T16:52:45Z")
Crap. So early-morning meetings have basically eaten half my day. I have one more, starting in eight minutes, and after that I’ll be free but will have only three hours in which to try to find a vote. I don’t think I love the Alka Seltzer wagon on its merits, in spite of the vote for Mahaloth that put him above Kelly (I mean, I did the same thing, and _I’m_ Town; I can hardly look at that as evidence of much of anything, in the end). I will look at Oredigger after my meeting. ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2010, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1707 "2010-03-04T19:05:46Z")
OK, trying to catch up, kind of running out of time, but a few observations, based on the vote chart. First, it appears that on Day Three, all of the voters for **Kelly Criterion** on Day Three, with the exception of two, were (now-confirmed) Town. Of the two remaining, one was **Redskeezix** , who has now claimed, and seems fairly likely to be, third-party. That means that if **Rysto** is _not_ Scum, then _no_ Scum voted for **Kelly Criterion** at all on the day he was lynched. This sort of restores my existing suspicion of **Rysto** , who had been receding once we learned Kelly’s alignment. Second, the alignment of all but three of the players responsible for **peeker’s** Day One lynch has been revealed as Town. The remaining three are **Alka Selzter,** **USC Diver** , and **Texcat**. Am I absolutely certain that there was Scum on the peeker wagon? No. Would I bet on it? Probably. Just things worth keeping in mind. For this Summer, I can’t get solidly behind any of the wagons right now. I would think **Alka Seltzer** is Town were he any other player, but he remains opaque to me. Nonetheless, my instincts say we’re headed in the wrong direction with him - his response to pressure, and he continued pursuit of me long after it became obvious that it wouldn’t bear fruit, have both been consistent with what I’d expect to be Townie behavior. ---
**Author:** ![Drain\_Bead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e47774/32.png) [@Drain\_Bead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Drain_Bead)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2010, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1708 "2010-03-04T19:39:02Z")
**Story** , I agree with your first point entirely, and it meshes with my earlier suspicions as well. ---
**Author:** ![Natlaw](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a88e57/32.png) [@Natlaw](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Natlaw)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2010, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1709 "2010-03-04T19:54:11Z")
I didn’t have time do do an extension review, but I still think **Alka Seltzer** isn’t a good lynch Today. Looking at **Oredigger** again: > [@Oredigger77](#): > > I am still suspicious of you but I think Sach has been actively trying to hurt the town which is still worse then you. Do I need to FOS you every Day to let you know I’m still watching you? > [@Oredigger77](#): > > I think this is the most blatantly scummy thing I’ve ever read. Basically you just asked if there are enough other people who want to lynch Story and if so you want to lynch him. If not you don’t want to put a vanilla role against him you’d prefer a power role so that Story is more like to get lynched. > > \ > > **Vote Sach** **sachertorte** also voted Mahaloth but Oredigger appearantly forget his suspicion of him. I’m leaving my vote where it is. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Skeezix](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/aca169/32.png) [@Red\_Skeezix](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Skeezix)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2010, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1710 "2010-03-04T19:54:41Z")
Since we are so close to the end of the summer, here’s some things that I want to say, just in case story does eat me this winter. 1. Any remaining masons should push for vote conformity compliance within 24 hours of end of summer. I havent done the analysis of it, but as the game approaches lylo, the impact of vote manipulation increases dramatically. Early conformity is the nuclear option here, don’t be too timid to use it. 2. Any remaining masons should consider not voting until later in the summer (within 72-48 hrs of winter). Make suspicions, ask questions, pick apart arguments, etc. I always feel that when the game gets to a certain point, any living masons should take on an arbitration role. It will prevent everyone from lining up behind them, if they don’t take an early strong stand. ---
**Author:** ![Alka\_Seltzer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c89c15/32.png) [@Alka\_Seltzer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alka_Seltzer)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2010, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1711 "2010-03-04T19:59:54Z")
> [@Red\_Skeezix](#): > > 1. Any remaining masons should consider not voting until later in the summer (within 72-48 hrs of winter). Make suspicions, ask questions, pick apart arguments, etc. I always feel that when the game gets to a certain point, any living masons should take on an arbitration role. It will prevent everyone from lining up behind them, if they don’t take an early strong stand. I sort of tried that in colourless, after my claim confirmed me. It didn’t go well, town and scum waited around to see which way I’d jump (I should have made my intentions clearer). ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2010, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1712 "2010-03-04T20:00:39Z")
No time for a fancy write-up The Spawn votes Red Skeezix and USCDiver **A Spawn is dead Alka Seltzer, a Scum, is dead** It’s Winter now, you know the drill, etc. ---
**Author:** ![Alka\_Seltzer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c89c15/32.png) [@Alka\_Seltzer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alka_Seltzer)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2010, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1713 "2010-03-04T20:02:02Z")
Good luck scummies. ---
**Author:** ![Natlaw](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a88e57/32.png) [@Natlaw](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Natlaw)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2010, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1714 "2010-03-04T20:06:24Z")
Boo! I was wrong :(. Woot! I was wrong :). ---
**Author:** ![Alka\_Seltzer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c89c15/32.png) [@Alka\_Seltzer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alka_Seltzer)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2010, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1715 "2010-03-04T20:08:20Z")
In today’s news, apparently the bacteria living inside us contain more DNA than we possess ourselves. [http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8547454.stm](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8547454.stm) Makes all of us something of a chimera I suppose (in a biological sense). **Could you spoil me in please Chornos? And thanks for running the game.** ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2010, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1716 "2010-03-04T20:32:44Z")
I suck at this game. But yay! ---
**Author:** ![Oredigger77](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/oredigger77/32/3181_2.png) [@Oredigger77](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oredigger77)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2010, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1717 "2010-03-04T20:35:35Z")
Knew it!! Nice work guys. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Skeezix](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/aca169/32.png) [@Red\_Skeezix](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Skeezix)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2010, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1718 "2010-03-04T20:41:04Z")
Well, At least I’ve been right twice. Where’s the landlord of this establishment? I need something that looks questionable to drink! ---
**Author:** ![Drain\_Bead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e47774/32.png) [@Drain\_Bead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Drain_Bead)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2010, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1719 "2010-03-04T20:43:12Z")
I was thisclose to unvoting, too. ---
**Author:** ![Alka\_Seltzer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c89c15/32.png) [@Alka\_Seltzer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alka_Seltzer)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2010, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202/1720 "2010-03-04T21:04:39Z")
Is the lack of a space between ‘this’ and ‘close’ intentional Drain? Oh, and something I meant to say earlier in the game, when it was brought up. I don’t think peeker means to be offensive or abrasive. I just think he has a ‘fuck’ key on his keyboard, and he’s a sloppy typist. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202.md?page=85) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/scum-mafia-on-cecil-pond-game-over/526202.md?page=87)