# SD FIFA World Cup 2002 prediction game!! **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [May 14, 2002, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sd-fifa-world-cup-2002-prediction-game/109085 "2002-05-14T21:10:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Jack\_Batty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jack_batty/32/3201_2.png) [@Jack\_Batty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jack_Batty)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2002, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sd-fifa-world-cup-2002-prediction-game/109085/41 "2002-05-17T01:09:05Z")
There … these are right off the top of my head … 1 31-May France Senegal **4 - 0** 2 01-Jun Republic of Ireland Cameroon **2 - 2** 3 01-Jun Uruguay Denmark **1 - 1** 4 01-Jun Germany Saudi Arabia **4 - 0** 5 02-Jun England Sweden **2 - 1** 6 02-Jun Paraguay South Africa **1 - 2** 7 02-Jun Argentina Nigeria **3 - 1** 8 02-Jun Spain Slovenia **2 - 0** 9 03-Jun Croatia Mexico **1 - 0** 10 03-Jun Brazil Turkey **2 - 0** 11 03-Jun Italy Ecuador **3 - 1** 12 04-Jun China PR Costa Rica **0 - 0** 13 04-Jun Japan Belgium **0 - 1** 14 04-Jun Korea Republic Poland **1 - 1** 15 05-Jun Russia Tunisia **1 - 1** 16 05-Jun USA Portugal **1 - 1** 17 05-Jun Germany Republic of Ireland **1 - 0** 18 06-Jun France Uruguay **2 - 0** 19 06-Jun Cameroon Saudi Arabia **2 - 0** 20 06-Jun Denmark Senegal **2 - 1** 21 07-Jun Sweden Nigeria **1 - 1** 22 07-Jun Spain Paraguay **2 - 2** 23 07-Jun Argentina England **3 - 2** 24 08-Jun South Africa Slovenia **1 - 1** ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2002, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sd-fifa-world-cup-2002-prediction-game/109085/42 "2002-05-17T03:26:31Z")
I hereby officially apply for the position of “chaff”: 1 31-May France Senegal 4-1 2 01-Jun Republic of Ireland Cameroon 1-2 3 01-Jun Uruguay Denmark 1-1 4 01-Jun Germany Saudi Arabia 2-2 5 02-Jun England Sweden 3-1 6 02-Jun Paraguay South Africa 2-0 7 02-Jun Argentina Nigeria 3-2 8 02-Jun Spain Slovenia 2-1 9 03-Jun Croatia Mexico 2-0 10 03-Jun Brazil Turkey 1-0 11 03-Jun Italy Ecuador 1-1 12 04-Jun China PR Costa Rica 1-0 13 04-Jun Japan Belgium 2-0 14 04-Jun Korea Republic Poland 0-2 15 05-Jun Russia Tunisia 2-3 16 05-Jun USA Portugal 2-4 17 05-Jun Germany Republic of Ireland 1-1 18 06-Jun France Uruguay 4-0 19 06-Jun CameroonSaudi Arabia 3-2 20 06-Jun Denmark Senegal 1-2 21 07-Jun Sweden Nigeria 1-3 22 07-Jun Spain Paraguay 2-2 23 07-Jun Argentina England 3-1 24 08-Jun South AfricaSlovenia 0-2 ---
**Author:** ![grimpixie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/ecb155/32.png) [@grimpixie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/grimpixie)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2002, 7:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sd-fifa-world-cup-2002-prediction-game/109085/43 "2002-05-17T07:43:48Z")
Can I suggest an alteration to the scoring system? It seems to me that while picking the winner can be attributed to skill, predicting the score is more a matter of luck, and doesn’t deserve to be rewarded so highly. As an alternative: Predict Result only = 1 point Predict result and margin of victory = 2 points Predict result and correct score = 3 points By “margin of victory” I mean the goal difference, so if (say) South Africa plays France, and I predict a victory to SA by 5-1 (😃 I can dream can’t I??), then the following happens: 1. France wins (or draw) = 0 2. SA wins 1-0 = 1 point 3. SA wins 4-0 = 2 points 4. SA wins 5-1 = 3 points, the Second Coming happens and the Redeemed are removed from this earth to live in Paradise forever!! 😉 Thoughts? Gp ---
**Author:** ![S.Mussberger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@S.Mussberger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/S.Mussberger)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2002, 8:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sd-fifa-world-cup-2002-prediction-game/109085/44 "2002-05-17T08:05:05Z")
1 31-May France Senegal \*\*2-0 \*\* 2 01-Jun Republic of Ireland Cameroon \*\*0-0 \*\* 3 01-Jun Uruguay Denmark \*\*1-1 \*\* 4 01-Jun Germany Saudi Arabia [b3-0] \*\* 5 02-Jun England Sweden \*\*1-1 \*\* 6 02-Jun Paraguay South Africa \*\*2-0 \*\* 7 02-Jun Argentina Nigeria \*\*2-0 \*\* 8 02-Jun Spain Slovenia \*\*3-1 \*\* 9 03-Jun Croatia Mexico \*\*1-1 \*\* 10 03-Jun Brazil Turkey \*\*3-1 \*\* 11 03-Jun Italy Ecuador \*\*1-0 \*\* 12 04-Jun China PR Costa Rica **0-0 \*\* 13 04-Jun Japan Belgium \*\* 0-1 \*\* 14 04-Jun Korea Republic Poland** 0-4 \*\* 15 05-Jun Russia Tunisia \*\* 3-0 \*\* 16 05-Jun USA Portugal **0-2 \*\* 17 05-Jun Germany Republic of Ireland 2-0 \*\* 18 06-Jun France Uruguay \*\* 3-2 19 06-Jun Cameroon Saudi Arabia**3-0 \*\* 20 06-Jun Denmark Senegal [b2-0 \*\* 21 07-Jun Sweden Nigeria \*\*2-1 \*\* 22 07-Jun Spain Paraguay \*\* 2-1 \*\* 23 07-Jun Argentina England \*\*2-2 \*\* 24 08-Jun South Africa Slovenia \*\* 0-1 \*\* ---
**Author:** ![kabbes](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/e99b99/32.png) [@kabbes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kabbes)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2002, 9:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sd-fifa-world-cup-2002-prediction-game/109085/45 "2002-05-17T09:22:06Z")
I quite like **grimpixie’s** suggestion actually. pan ---
**Author:** ![Coldfire](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a587f6/32.png) [@Coldfire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Coldfire)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2002, 9:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sd-fifa-world-cup-2002-prediction-game/109085/46 "2002-05-17T09:33:20Z")
Me too. Let’s leave it to London\_Calling and TwistofFate to decide whether we switch - they’re the fathers of this project, after all! But it’s a nice touch. ---
**Author:** ![Anahita](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/a9a28c/32.png) [@Anahita](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anahita)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2002, 10:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sd-fifa-world-cup-2002-prediction-game/109085/47 "2002-05-17T10:12:01Z")
**1** 31-May France Senegal 2-1 **2** 01-Jun Republic of Ireland Cameroon 3-0 **3** 01-Jun Uruguay Denmark 2-1 **4** 01-Jun Germany Saudi Arabia 3-1 **5** 02-Jun England Sweden 2-1 **6** 02-Jun Paraguay South Africa 0-2 **7** 02-Jun Argentina Nigeria 1-2 **8** 02-Jun Spain Slovenia 3-0 **9** 03-Jun Croatia Mexico 1-2 **10** 03-Jun Brazil Turkey 3-0 **11** 03-Jun Italy Ecuador 4-1 **12** 04-Jun China PR Costa Rica 1-0 **13** 04-Jun Japan Belgium 2-3 **14** 04-Jun Korea Republic Poland 2-1 **15** 05-Jun Russia Tunisia 2-1 **16** 05-Jun USA Portugal 1-3 **17** 05-Jun Germany Republic of Ireland 2-3 **18** 06-Jun France Uruguay 3-1 **19** 06-Jun Cameroon Saudi Arabia 1-1 **20** 06-Jun Denmark Senegal 2-1 **21** 07-Jun Sweden Nigeria 12-1 **22** 07-Jun Spain Paraguay 3-1 **23** 07-Jun Argentina England 3-2 **24** 08-Jun South Africa Slovenia 3-1 ---
**Author:** ![TwistofFate](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/cdc98d/32.png) [@TwistofFate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TwistofFate)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2002, 10:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sd-fifa-world-cup-2002-prediction-game/109085/48 "2002-05-17T10:22:46Z")
While Grimpixies suggestion has merit, I’m trying to keep the scoring as simple as possible so that me head dosent explode. We have 21 people registered to play so far, with predictions in from 15, and I’m trying to keep it all as easy as possible for all concerned. ---
**Author:** ![kabbes](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/e99b99/32.png) [@kabbes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kabbes)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2002, 11:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sd-fifa-world-cup-2002-prediction-game/109085/49 "2002-05-17T11:09:10Z")
You lack ambition. Next you’ll be telling me that your spreadsheet won’t play a fanfare as I march triumphantly to the top of the league. pan ---
**Author:** ![TwistofFate](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/cdc98d/32.png) [@TwistofFate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TwistofFate)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2002, 11:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sd-fifa-world-cup-2002-prediction-game/109085/50 "2002-05-17T11:11:48Z")
Of course not. But, I can get it to play “The Lambeth Walk” while you flap about at the bottom though. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![London\_Calling](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@London\_Calling](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/London_Calling)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2002, 11:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sd-fifa-world-cup-2002-prediction-game/109085/51 "2002-05-17T11:17:51Z")
Sounds okay, **grimpixie** but there are a couple of problems; 1- Unless I’m misreading things, It looks to be biased against those predicting draws (I guess we could build in a rule to the rule but see point 2), 2 - 48 games X 30 ish players (or more !) = 1440. With 4 possible _already_ existing outcomes (correct score, correct winner, score draw of another number of goals, lose…I think ?) - although I’m not great with excel spreadsheets - I’d guess that was complex enough. - That’s a _lot_ of work here already. And that’s just the collation. After that comes the regular tabulation (every few days) and successfully rendering the tables on this page. I’ll leave it with **Twisty** but unless he’s an Excel guru _and_ a coding wizard, I’d think it probably best to leave as is. Nice idea, though ! ---
**Author:** ![ObiWan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/e47774/32.png) [@ObiWan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ObiWan)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2002, 11:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sd-fifa-world-cup-2002-prediction-game/109085/52 "2002-05-17T11:25:49Z")
1 31-May France vs Senegal **4-0** 2 01-Jun Republic of Ireland vs Cameroon **2-1** 3 01-Jun Uruguay vs Denmark **2-1** 4 01-Jun Germany vs Saudi Arabia **3-0** 5 02-Jun England vs Sweden **2-1** 6 02-Jun Paraguay vs South Africa **2-0** 7 02-Jun Argentina vs Nigeria **3-1** 8 02-Jun Spain vs Slovenia **2-1** 9 03-Jun Croatia vs Mexico **0-1** 10 03-Jun Brazil vs Turkey **2-1** 11 03-Jun Italy vs Ecuador **3-0** 12 04-Jun China PR vs Costa Rica **0-1** 13 04-Jun Japan vs Belgium **1-2** 14 04-Jun Korea vs Republic Poland **1-1** 15 05-Jun Russia vs Tunisia **2-0** 16 05-Jun USA vs Portugal **1-3** 17 05-Jun Germany vs Republic of Ireland **1-1** 18 06-Jun France vs Uruguay **2-0** 19 06-Jun Cameroon vs Saudi Arabia **2-0** 20 06-Jun Denmark vs Senegal **2-0** 21 07-Jun Sweden vs Nigeria **1-2** 22 07-Jun Spain vs Paraguay **2-1** 23 07-Jun Argentina vs England **2-1** 24 08-Jun South Africa vs Slovenia **1-2** ---
**Author:** ![kabbes](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/e99b99/32.png) [@kabbes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kabbes)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2002, 11:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sd-fifa-world-cup-2002-prediction-game/109085/53 "2002-05-17T11:42:47Z")
Actually **LC** , once you have the details in Excel, it is as easy to score using **grimpixie’s** suggestion as the original. I assume **Twisty** will be simply entering the score from the relevant match, having already set the spreadsheet up to calculate points and league positions. That’s how I’d do it. If he doesn’t know how, I’m more than willing to code the s’sheet but I must chicken out of entering everybody’s predictions. That means that (subject to your good point about draws), there is no _practical_ reason not to adopt this scoring system. I still defer to the granddaddies of the game if they simply don’t like it however. pan ---
**Author:** ![Coldfire](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a587f6/32.png) [@Coldfire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Coldfire)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2002, 11:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sd-fifa-world-cup-2002-prediction-game/109085/54 "2002-05-17T11:45:02Z")
I can do the Excel stuff to. I do it all day, might as well make it fun. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![London\_Calling](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@London\_Calling](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/London_Calling)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2002, 11:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sd-fifa-world-cup-2002-prediction-game/109085/55 "2002-05-17T11:48:34Z")
I’m happy to bow to your better understanding, **kabbes**. Still got the issue of bias (and twisting Twist’y arm) though ? ---
**Author:** ![TwistofFate](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/cdc98d/32.png) [@TwistofFate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TwistofFate)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2002, 12:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sd-fifa-world-cup-2002-prediction-game/109085/56 "2002-05-17T12:51:16Z")
I have no problem adapting to the proposed rules once the bias can be worked out. I like the current system because it is a good mixture of both skill and luck. I split the opening games into two, so that when we are picking the second section results, we will have a better Idea of how the teams are playing. ---
**Author:** ![woolly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/ebca7d/32.png) [@woolly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/woolly)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2002, 1:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sd-fifa-world-cup-2002-prediction-game/109085/57 "2002-05-17T13:12:14Z")
Count me in, but I won’t be able to post for a day or so. BTW, you guys seem to think this is going to be one hell of a goalfest. Lots of 4 or more goal games in the first round. Looks like an opening for a doom & gloom merchant. (and if I stuff up, I’ll see lots of entertaining soccer, wacko!) ---
**Author:** ![grimpixie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/ecb155/32.png) [@grimpixie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/grimpixie)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2002, 1:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sd-fifa-world-cup-2002-prediction-game/109085/58 "2002-05-17T13:15:46Z")
With regards to my scoring suggestion - I briefly thought of the bias against draws, but then forgot about it. A little analysis during my lunchbreak reveals the following - in France '98, of the 64 games that were played, just 19 ended in draws, 16 in the group games, and three in the knockout rounds that were then decided by penalties (see below). IOW, 29.7% of the games were draws, which means that a result is more than twice as likely as a draw. (In USA '94 there were even less, just 11 out of 52 = 20.4%, while Italy '90 had 13 out of 52 = 25%) This suggests that the bias might not be as great as it seems. A counter suggestion for dealing with the draw might be to award 2 points for a correct prediction of a draw, with a third for the correct score… I will defer to **TwistOfFate** in this matter, as he is the one who will have to implement the scoring system. A further question - in the knockout rounds, how are we going to deal with penalty shoot-outs? Just treat it as a victory with the number of goals as finally scored including penalties? Or say it was a draw? ::thinks - did I just waste the second sunny lunch break in London’s written history calculating the number of draws? - sigh:: Gp ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2002, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sd-fifa-world-cup-2002-prediction-game/109085/59 "2002-05-17T13:41:43Z")
I don’t understand how it’s biased against draws. A draw is also an outcome one can predict. Using **Grimpixie** ’s formula 1 = correct result 2 = correct difference 3 = correct score then, if I predict a draw and the result is a draw I get 2 points, since the result _and_ difference are correct. If the the end score was spot on (0-0, 1-1, 2-2, etc), then I get 3 points. So you might argue it’s biased in favor of draws, since a draw would be a minimum of two points. Or am I misunderstanding something? In the original, simple scoring format predicting a draw would be less weighted, e.g., a draw without the correct score is only 1 point; otherwise 3 points. ---
**Author:** ![TwistofFate](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/cdc98d/32.png) [@TwistofFate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TwistofFate)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2002, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sd-fifa-world-cup-2002-prediction-game/109085/60 "2002-05-17T13:54:08Z")
My reckoning on the matter is that the score at the end of 90 minutes play. If you pick the match to be a win, and it goes to penalties, you get no points. if you think its going to be a draw, you get 3 points for the score draw/no score draw prediction, and one point for the correct 90 minute prediction. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sd-fifa-world-cup-2002-prediction-game/109085.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sd-fifa-world-cup-2002-prediction-game/109085.md?page=4)