# SDMB 2022 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Pool **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Tags:** basketball-nba\ **Created:** [March 14, 2022, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-2022-ncaa-mens-basketball-tournament-pool/960999 "2022-03-14T01:49:33Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 1\ **Showing post:** 2
**Author:** ![Ponch8](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ponch8/32/9883_2.png) [@Ponch8](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ponch8)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2022, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-2022-ncaa-mens-basketball-tournament-pool/960999/2 "2022-03-14T21:53:29Z")
Awesome, thanks @Shoeless! I will enter two brackets (assuming I get to it before the tournament starts): one bracket will be my own picks, and one bracket will show the results of a dice simulation of the tournament. Below is my 2021 post about the rules for the dice simulation. This year, none of my favorite teams or least favorite teams are in the tournament, so there are no special provisions for replacement of the dice this year. Last year’s dice were particularly terrible; I think that the dice simulation bracket only finished in the 3rd percentile! > [@NCAA Tournament bracket challenge?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ncaa-tournament-bracket-challenge/937968/10): > > First, I looked at all-time results by seed in the first round of the tournament at [this site](https://www.betfirm.com/seeds-national-championship-odds/). For instance, the 4th seed beats the 13th seed 79% of the time. I conducted my simulation using percentages that were fairly similar to these all-time results. > > Each game was determined by two rolls of a single die: one roll per team. In games with two teams that are the same seed or only one seed apart (e.g., a #1 vs. #1 matchup), the team that got the higher dice roll advanced. In case of a tie, I rerolled for each team. For matchups of a much higher seed vs. a much lower seed (e.g., #2 vs. #15), the 15th seed would need a much better dice roll than the 2nd seed in order to advance. Here was my magic formula: > > -Two teams whose seeds are identical or differ by one: higher dice roll advances; tie requires reroll > > -Two teams whose seeds are 2 or 3 apart (e.g., #1 vs. #4): lower seed needs higher dice roll to advance; tied dice roll results in the higher seed advancing > > -Two teams whose seeds are 4 or 5 apart: lower seed needs to win dice roll by two; if lower seed wins dice roll by one, then I reroll > > -Seeds 6 or 7 apart: lower seed needs to win dice roll by two; if lower seed wins dice roll by only one, the higher seed advances > > -Seeds 8 or 9 apart: lower seed needs to win dice roll by three; if lower seed wins dice roll by exactly two, then I reroll > > -Seeds 10 or 11 apart: lower seed needs to win dice roll by three; if lower seed wins dice roll by only two, then higher seed advances > > -Seeds 12 or 13 apart: lower seed needs to win dice roll by four; if lower seed wins dice roll by only three, then higher seed advances > > -Seeds 14 or 15 apart: lower seed needs to win dice roll by 5 (i.e., roll a 6 vs. a 1) AND THEN win a second dice roll > > One other important set of rules: if the dice said that Florida lost in any round, I fired the dice and replaced them with new dice. If the dice allowed FSU to advance to the Sweet 16 or any round beyond, I fired the dice and replaced them with new dice. Finally, if the dice allowed fuckass colleges Oral Roberts or Jerry Falwell U. (Liberty) to advance, I fired the dice and replaced them with new dice. I ended up needing six dice for my simulation. --- _[View the full topic](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-2022-ncaa-mens-basketball-tournament-pool/960999)._