SDMB Fantasy Baseball - Anna Benson Stadium Tour

Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share
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I like Beltran the best out of the second round picks… he’s putting up great numbers in every category for this league and doesn’t seem to be slowing down, even though he missed some games because of injury. I said Reyes was overrated in this league because of his OPS and ABs right after draft day, and I maintain that now - in a five-cat league he’s just hurting your average, here’s he’s a much bigger drag on the offensive stats. Though one that works with that team because of Manny and Hafner, among others.

As for my Young pick… well… yeah. As I said in my draft recap, there weren’t any guys I really liked there… it was between he and Tejada. And Tejada had an absolutely ABYSMAL second half this year (and may this year, too, who knows) - 7 HR, 38 RBI, sub-.800 OPS from July 1 forward. Young was the exact opposite last year, and his best two months historically are July and September. So I can’t really argue with it being the worst 1st-rounder at this point, but I’m cautiously optimistic. As for Jeter, well, he’s consistent, and this year he’s on pace for his best year since 1999 - otherwise, he’s consistently “above-average”, and wasn’t in the first-round discussion. Though he’s looking like a brilliant pick where he was taken.

I like Webb over Wells in the 5th, but you can’t really go wrong with either. Wells has been less impressive lately, though (and less impressive when he isn’t facing the Sox - over half of his HR have been against Boston this year). I agree that the Thome pick was brilliant - almost certainly one of the best in the entire draft, especially since the value should have been obvious to the rest of us.

This draft has continued last year’s trend for me, where I bombed the first few rounds and am in it because I hit gold (or was at least consistenly above-average) later on. I can’t wait to see who Omni picks as worst in round ten - that might have been the worst round in the entire draft, with several unqualified busts, only about three impact picks, and a Clemens that is about to start pitching… for a different team than the one that drafted him. Yuck.

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You’re missing my point. I’m not saying any of those guys blow Beltre away in the stats department. Beltre’s 2004 season is almost certainly the aberration and all those others mentioned, Mueller excepted, are clearly on the upslope of their careers. The point was that there were at least 5 3Bs available at that draft slot and there was no reason to reach for a 3B. Taking Beltre instead of the others is defensible in the 10th or 11th round, not in the 6th.

I couldn’t disagree with this more. Pujols is definitely great, but no one in their right mind would have looked at the numbers going into this year and taken A-Rod over Pujols. They’d have been laughed out of the draft room. The only category where A-Rod stands out is his SBs, Pujols OPS is about 80 points higher. Taking Pujols is a no brainer for anyone but a delusional Yankee fan. Pujols numbers are so great that he might unseat Soriano here even with the pick values, but the fact that he was a no-brainer #1 overall I’m not going to give an award for him winning the lottery.

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You couldn’t be more wrong about the “upslope” comment. Blake regressed 70 points in OPS last year from 2004 and will be 33 this summer. Beltre, for all his MLB experience. is only 27 years old, which has been statistically proven (see bill james or baseball prospectus) to be the age that the average player peaks statistically. Crede is 28 and has never been much better than league average at his position (career .306 OBP and .750 OPS).

Hyperbole much? I think you need to abandon whatever source you are using to research your arguments. Pujols’ OPS last year was 1.039 and ARod’s was 1.031. Pretty much a tossup, with the edge going to ARod because he was a better bet to repeat his SB totals and he plays in a better lineup. Although not completely analogous to our league, ARod (avg pick was 1.7) was chosen first in more Yahoo 5x5 drafts this year than Pujols (2.4).

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Ahh, I see now that you’re referring to career averages. Still, in the “what have you done for me lately” department, Arod went stride for stride with the youngster last year, so one has to neither be delusional nor a Yankee fan to gnash a bit of teeth over the ARod vs. Pujols argument at the start of this year’s draft.

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Round 9:


1.  	D. Haren  	The Cougars
2. 	J. Posada 	Isotopes
3. 	I. Rodríguez 	Got Melky?
4. 	G. Jenkins 	rackensack d...
5. 	M. Ordóñez 	All Juiced Up
6. 	C. Young 	UU's House o...
7. 	Y. Torrealba 	Tazmanian Devil
8. 	J. Valverde 	project mayhem
9. 	C. Ray  		Petelin
10. 	J. Drew 	California Q...
11. 	Z. Duke 	Pastafarians...
12. 	A. Rowand 	No More Idiots
13. 	L. Overbay 	Puget Sound
14. 	J. Morneau 	Sea Bass' Re...
15. 	K. Mench 	Roid Boys
16. 	J. Estrada 	OutOnWavelan...
17. 	B. Hall 	Sepotosi
18. 	O. Cabrera 	Winnowill's ...

Best Pick: Magglio Ordonez
This is a pretty strong round, top to bottom, and there just aren’t many bad picks. Maggs .913 OPS outdoes the rest by a pretty fair margin for the top prize. There was a run on second tier catchers here and every one of them, Torrealba excluded, is performing at or above expectations. Considering the challenge in getting a reliable player for that position each one of those picks has a bit more value than their numbers indicate.
Worst Pick: Justin Morneau
His average is pretty bad and drags down the rest of his respectable numbers. Compared to some of the other worst picks this one doesn’t look so bad though. This was just a pretty decent round and getting a guy on pace for 30 HRs as the “worst” pick isn’t really that shameful.

Round 10:


1.  	G. Anderson  	Winnowill's ...
2. 	J. Randa 	Sepotosi
3. 	A. LaRoche 	OutOnWavelan...
4. 	M. Ellis 	Roid Boys
5. 	G. Atkins 	Sea Bass' Re...
6. 	S. Hillenbrand 	Puget Sound
7. 	P. Polanco 	No More Idiots
8. 	M. Cain 	Pastafarians...
9. 	C. Monroe 	California Q...
10. 	E. Guardado 	Petelin
11. 	B. Wickman 	project mayhem
12. 	R. Clemens 	Tazmanian Devil
13. 	M. González 	UU's House o...
14. 	P. Feliz 	All Juiced Up
15. 	M. Barrett 	rackensack d...
16. 	J. Dye 	Got Melky?
17. 	J. Bonderman 	Isotopes
18. 	W. Peña 	The Cougars

Best Pick: Jermaine Dye
There’s a bunch of pigs in this round like Kiros noted but choosing the best wasn’t much of a challenge. Dye has been terrific and he was landed at the end of this round. 16 dingers, a +.400 OBP and 41 ribbies puts him in the discussion for best value picks in the entire draft alongside fellow White Sox Thome.
Worst Pick: Joe Randa
There’s plenty of guys who could be called busts in this round but Randa stands out. Nominally I’ve avoided piling on injured guys with these picks but Randa played for a month and brought nothing to the table when he did. He’s listed at a “power” position and went right near the top of this round. Him being hurt is actually helping his team compared to when he was playing.

Round 11:


1.  	J. Duchscherer  	The Cougars
2. 	N. Johnson 	Isotopes
3. 	J. Vázquez 	Got Melky?
4. 	Pr. Wilson 	rackensack d...
5. 	R. Barajas 	All Juiced Up
6. 	M. Bradley 	UU's House o...
7. 	K. Foulke 	Tazmanian Devil
8. 	M. Cameron 	project mayhem
9. 	E. Bedard 	Petelin
10. 	M. Batista 	California Q...
11. 	R. Dempster 	Pastafarians...
12. 	Sh. Green 	No More Idiots
13. 	R. Sanders 	Puget Sound
14. 	C. Shelton 	Sea Bass' Re...
15. 	T. Jones 	Roid Boys
16. 	A. Kearns 	OutOnWavelan...
17. 	J. Gibbons 	Sepotosi
18. 	N. Swisher 	Winnowill's ...

Best Pick: Nick Swisher
This round is flat out loaded. Kearns, Shelton, Nick Johnson, Vazquez are all really outperforming expectations but Nick Swisher’s are right there with Dye and Thome for best values in the draft. 16 HRS, 46 runs and 42 RBIs while caring a .400+ OBP are first round draft pick numbers.
Worst Pick: Erik Bedard
For as many quality picks as there are there are plenty of duds to choose from too. Barajas, Bradley, Cameron all are swatting flies at the plate and really none of the pitchers in this round are tearing it up but I think Bedard is the prize for worst pick. Frankly there wasn’t a whole lot of reason to expect him to be much better than this, when was the last time a Oriole pitcher didn’t suck? The fact that Mussina and Papelbon were still available, along with a bunch of other quality guys, makes this one ugly.

Round 12:


1.  	C. Capuano  	Winnowill's ...
2. 	M. Alou 	Sepotosi
3. 	M. Murton 	OutOnWavelan...
4. 	C. Blake 	Roid Boys
5. 	B. Clark 	Sea Bass' Re...
6. 	F. Liriano 	Puget Sound
7. 	Lui. González 	No More Idiots
8. 	J. Hermida 	Pastafarians...
9. 	R. Belliard 	California Q...
10. 	R. Baldelli 	Petelin
11. 	C. Granderson 	project mayhem
12. 	D. Cabrera 	Tazmanian Devil
13. 	Mi. Sweeney 	UU's House o...
14. 	Lui. González 	All Juiced Up
15. 	S. Casey 	rackensack d...
16. 	B. Penny 	Got Melky?
17. 	J. Guillén 	Isotopes
18. 	J. Jones 	The Cougars

Best Pick: Brad Penny
Seriously, it’s a crime that he was still on the board at the end of this round. Moises Alou was under consideration but you can’t miss a month and get credit even if you are hitting .380. The fact I still hate the guy from his Cubs days doesn’t help matters. Penny on the other hand is just dealing. His rate stats are pretty good across the board and if the Dodgers were healthy and giving him better run support he’d have Brandon Webb’s wins.
Worst Pick: Mike Sweeney
There’s plenty of guys to choose from here, a handful dancing around the Mendoza line, but Sweeney gets special mention. Look at my comments for Joe Randa and paste them here and we’ve pretty much covered it.

OK, time for another break.

66

Again, I think you’re reading too much into my comments. I’m not placing any of those guys on a pedestal way above Beltre and Beltre is indeed on the upslope, just like Crede, Blake and Huff (they are all basically the same age). Fact is, all those guys I mentioned, including Beltre, are basically interchangable if you look at their career numbers. None of them are worth taking in the 6th round of course, and the core of my critique is that taking Beltre there was a reach. He could have waited 5 or 6 rounds and gotten a 3rd baseman of equal value with just as much upside. His own comments indicated that he made a panic move with the 3B position and I’m pointing out that there were at least 4 other guys he could have had much later in the draft with equal or better value.

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I love how my picks got tabbed as the best of rounds 2, 3, and 4, and I’m dominating in OBP despite the Reyes pick, and my team’s still a fucking awful, horrible mess. I can’t figure out if that means I’m not dead yet, or that I’m really doing a terrible job managing the team.