# Sdmb mafia **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [October 30, 2008, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198 "2008-10-30T02:29:55Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 60
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2008, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1181 "2008-11-18T15:57:41Z")
> [@Zeriel](#): > > I’m probably going to die at this point, so I’m going to go with my gut–it very rarely steers me wrong and I have no reason to believe anything I say will convince anyone to remove a vote from me. > \*\* > unvote Hal > vote Blaster Master > I got a gut bad feeling about ShadowFacts and Pleonast, too. So now I get an OMGUS vote? :dubious: Whether you’re scum or town, this is a sign of frustration, so I’ll try to be a little more straight-forward with what I’m looking for. The whole **JSexton** thing is pretty much me getting ahead of myself because I’m feeling pretty confident at this point that you’re scum. But really, all I want is for you to address the concerns I expressed Yesterday and why I voted for you at that point. With that, I still have plenty of catching up to do, so… ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2008, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1182 "2008-11-18T16:13:31Z")
> [@Zeriel](#): > > Bah. So far this Day is giving me a headache. > > Point Zero: I’M A HE. Crikey, it’s hard to follow when people refer to me as she. Just read this post now. Again, I’m sorry, I tend to read and respond in order (although I occassionally will pick stuff right at the end as I’m posting). ---
**Author:** ![Hal\_Briston](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a9a28c/32.png) [@Hal\_Briston](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hal_Briston)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2008, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1183 "2008-11-18T16:24:16Z")
Ok, first out of the box – forgive me for my little outburst yesterday. It was an exceptionally crappy day at work, and I took it out on the game. I don’t like playing that way one bit, so I apologize. Now then, a side effect of that exceptionally crappy day is that I’m miles behind in reading. I’ve quickly skimmed the past 24 hours just to get a feel of where we are, and will now go back and read more thoroughly. I hesitate to put a vote down this second since I don’t feel I have all the info I need, but I also don’t like not having one on the table outside of the 48 hour mark. The temptation is, of course, to vote for **Zerial** , if only to save a townie (me, natch). However, I don’t necessarily _want_ to lynch **Zerial** – like **Total Lost** mentioned, **Z** could easily both be town. If I send **Z** over the top, and he comes back as town, then tomorrow I swing (not to mention the scum nailing someone overnight), then we’re going to be in one major effing hole here. Bah…back in an hour or two with more cognizant thoughts… ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2008, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1184 "2008-11-18T16:30:24Z")
> [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > A quick scan of the last few posts makes it look like the initial logic that the **JSexton** train was protection for someone Yesterday has dominated the discussion Today, and that **Zeriel** and **Hal** are the two candidates. I already expressed my suspicion of **Zeriel** Yesterday, and up through what I’ve read Today, nothing has changed that. > > Now, as for the logic behind the **JSexton** train as cover… I’m not really sure what to think of it, especially since the person who proposed it suggested it was covering Hal, and yet the analysis I did earlier Today makes it much clearer that **Zeriel** was, at worst, in as much trouble, and generally in much more than **Hal**. Maybe I’m suffering from the same thing with just how scummy **Zeriel** looks to me, but that logic seems strange to me that the **JSexton** wagon barely saved **Zeriel** Yesterday, and now it’s being used as logic to potentially save her Today at the expense of **Hal**. I say this, because I strongly suspect that if and when **Zeriel** shows up as scum, the proponents of the logic of how that **JSexton** train was somehow more cover for someone else will have a lot of explaining to do, especially **Shadow**. Please see my post 1163 for a rebuttal to this. ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2008, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1185 "2008-11-18T16:33:12Z")
Santo: I have no claim extant. I’m “Lone Wolf”, vanilla town. ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2008, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1186 "2008-11-18T16:38:40Z")
Blaster: OMGUS, or “hey, there’s a guy who’s got a lot of excuses for being in the background/not voting yesterDay and who just put a vote on me with very little in the way of anything to say about it.” You make the call. Besides, like I said, I’ve pretty well decided for myself that I don’t think any scum are being protected here–it’s too obvious a play for too little reward. Why even expose one scum covering for another when town’s already well along on its way to harrying the same few people to the ground? My money is on Hal being town along with me, and this whole chase will have wasted a few Days, especially if you guys get convinced that there’s still protection going on and lynch Hal tomorrow. ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2008, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1187 "2008-11-18T16:46:54Z")
> [@Hero\_From\_Sector\_7G](#): > > I’ve said it twice, **Hal** and **Zsofia** jumped on the **JSexton** bandwagon with pretty much no reason. **Hal** has been pinging me harder than **Zsofia** based on day one stuff. I felt three fingers was enough, as I didn’t feel it really contributed anything if I were to rank the entire population. Okay, I keep seeing this, I’m just not getting it especially since I read **Hal** ’s reaction to **JSexton** as pretty townie. FWIW, I also read **Zsofia** ’s reaction as pretty townie, but at least I can see that vote as generally being described as “no reason”. I’d really like an explanation for this. > [@Zsofia](#): > > What? Excuse you? That is NOT, in my opinion, very pro-town. What if the day ended in 48 hours and I had a connection problem? > > **unvote ok11** > **vote JSexton** > [@Hal\_Briston](#): > > Ahh, the mood swings one goes through when catching up (FTR, I’m here during my workday – 11-7 EST…other than, I’m probably not at my desk). From the time of my last post it went from “WTF **JSexton**? That was a **gambit**?! Forget it, you’re going under the hammer today” to “But it was such a ridiculous gambit, would scum _really_ make a play like that?” > > But here’s where you dropped the ball for me: > See, here’s the problem…you’re quite a good player. You’re on a short list of players that when I see a post, my thought is often “Huh..that was smart…wish I’d have picked up on that”. > > So, when you pull a move like your gambit, I think “how awfully unlike him”. Then when you deliberately misrepresent what I said, I think “how awfully unlike him…unless he’s scum”. Take a reread of [what I actually said](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=10430438&postcount=729). I said that if **ok11** came back as scum/PFK, then we could “be pretty sure” that you could be trusted. If she came back as PFK, then you would almost certainly be town. If she came back as scum, then you would probably be town. Probably town, but possibly a busing scumbuddy. So we’re back to you being a smart player – smarter than your quoted line. Of course I could find a way for you to be scum. Your statement makes it sound like the concept of scum busing their buddies is completely foreign to you. Ain’t buying it. > > Unvote **ok11** > Vote **JSexton** ---
**Author:** ![Hero\_From\_Sector\_7G](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/65b543/32.png) [@Hero\_From\_Sector\_7G](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hero_From_Sector_7G)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2008, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1188 "2008-11-18T16:49:41Z")
You keep seeing it because everyone is asking me to justify a FOS. It was me listing hunches based on feelings. After some real analysis you’ll notice where my vote landed. ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2008, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1189 "2008-11-18T16:53:38Z")
> [@Zeriel](#): > > Blaster: OMGUS, or “hey, there’s a guy who’s got a lot of excuses for being in the background/not voting yesterDay and who just put a vote on me with very little in the way of anything to say about it.” You make the call. I’m sorry, I’m just not going to bother to restate my case when I’ve made it. I’ve said it before, I tend to point things out as I see them and then just vote. Sometimes I don’t do as much pointing out when I’m stuck playing catch up a lot. If you want, I can relink my reasons and clarify, but I’m not going to restate my whole case. As for my “excuses”, they’re not. I’ve said before that I think it’s outside the spirit of the game to use real life reasons to try to avoid in game suspicion. Do you think I’m reading along and not posting just because I want to pretend I’m not reading? And, FWIW, I only didn’t vote Day One, and that’s because I completely forgot I’d had plans to go out of town until the night before I did. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2008, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1190 "2008-11-18T16:58:11Z")
**Can we get an official vote count?** I’m happy with my vote for **Zeriel**. I believe he’s scum. Even if he’s not, we’re getting good information from the voting records. And I think I see something in the voting pattern of ToDay. I think that after I crunch the numbers Tomorrow, there should be a couple players who stand out. ---
**Author:** ![MHaye](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/bbe5ce/32.png) [@MHaye](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MHaye)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2008, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1191 "2008-11-18T17:29:47Z")
It appears that Day 3 has been running 81½ hours and you’ve only had one official Vote Count. You’ve been incredibly patient. So, I think you deserve another.Zeriel : 6 (Kat, Boozahol Squid P.I., Pleonast, ok11, amrussell, Blaster Master) Hal Briston : 4 (ShadowFacts, Zsofia, Oredigger77, Fretful Porpentine) Boozahol Squid P.I. : 1 (Santo Rugger) ShadowFacts (Hero from Sector 7G) Hero from Sector 7G : 1 (Total Lost) ok11 : 1 (One and Only Wanderers) Blaster Master : 1 (Zeriel)That’s the vote standings, here on the Dope, at the halfway mark of Hour 82 of the Third Day. ---
**Author:** ![ok11](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/8baadc/32.png) [@ok11](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ok11)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2008, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1192 "2008-11-18T17:32:38Z")
> [@Pleonast](#): > > I’m happy with my vote for **Zeriel**. I’m, on the other hand, no longer happy with my vote for **Zeriel**. Here’s what I said about him yesterDay: > [@ok11](#): > > **Zeriel** is mostly suspicious because of the circumstances surrounding his vote for and unvote of **Hero From Sector 7G**. ToDay, he voted for me because he considered my vote analysis scummy, and although I don’t agree with him, at least his view is somewhat logical. In his posts toDay he keeps fluctuating between thinking I’m extremely scummy, to only slightly scummy. I can see him being town, because I’d expect scum to be more decisive (since they’ve got extra info). Also, he explained **Nanook** ’s hint to me, which is pro-town because it cleared up confusion (at least mine, and maybe other players’ too). ToDay, my main suspect was **OAOW**. I ended up unvoting, and going with **Zeriel** instead, because it was clear that either him or **Hal** would get lynched, and I thought that between the two of them, **Zeriel** is likelier to be scum. I also thought that banning **Zeriel** will give us more info regardless of his alignment. But now I’m starting to think **Zeriel** is town, so I don’t want to keep my vote on him. If his sn is really “Lone Wolf,” then it’s probably a reference to “Fretful Porpentine,” who was town in M2. For some reason, that little detail made all the difference for me, though I do realize he could have made that up. \*\*unvote Zeriel vote One And Only Wanderers \*\* [My case](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=10454758&postcount=1101) against **OAOW** , to which I don’t really have anything to add, except that he said he’d reread the posts by/about **Hal** and **Zeriel** , but he didn’t comment on them yet again toDay. I really hope that everyone re-thinks their position and considers voting for **OAOW**. Hopefully, there’s still time. ---
**Author:** ![ok11](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/8baadc/32.png) [@ok11](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ok11)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2008, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1193 "2008-11-18T17:48:50Z")
What **OAOW** ’s alignment will tell us: If he’s scum Then **Hero From Sector 7G** is less likely to be scum, because **OAOW** voted for him on Day 1, and it’s less likely that scum would vote for each other right off the bat. If he’s town Then I realize it makes me look really scummy, but so be it. So, there’s not much info to gain from **OAOW** ’s ban. But I think he’s scum, so it’s worth it. ---
**Author:** ![Rapier42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/90db22/32.png) [@Rapier42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rapier42)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2008, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1194 "2008-11-18T19:22:48Z")
I’m very sorry that I haven’t been around, work has been busier than expected. Amrussell, thats a big fat _mea culpa_. I went to look for my response to JSexton, and couldn’t find it. I know I worked on it, and I went through the last portion of Yesterday thinking he was ignoring my reply. So I wrote him off. * * * Here’s another take on Yesterdays vote record: 649, Kat votes Zeriel 663, amrussell votes Zeriel 672, Zeriel votes ok11 694, Pedescribe votes Blam 704, Oredigger votes Hal 709, Zsofia votes Kat 713, Hal votes ok11 720, Hal unvotes ok11 724, JSexton votes ok11 727, Hal revotes ok11 732, Zsofia unvotes Kat and votes ok11 733, Boozy votes JSexton 736, Jsexton unvotes ok11 … and now the proverbial excrement hits the rotary air relocation device. ok11 (3) Zeriel (2) Blam (1) Hal (1) JSexton (1) 738, Zsofia unvotes ok11 and votes JSexton 749, Santo votes JSexton 755, Rapier votes JSexton 768, Mhaye posts a vote count: JSexton : 4 (BS PI, Zsofia, Santo Rugger, Rapier42) Zeriel : 2 (Kat, amrussell) ok11 : 2 (Zeriel, Hal Briston) Blaster Master : 1 (Pedescribe) Hal Briston : 1 (Oredigger77) 769, Ped unvotes Blam and votes JSexton 771, Ped unvotes JSexton and revotes Blam 774, ok11 votes Blam 777, FretfulP votes Blam 778, Shadow votes Hal JSexton (4) Blam (3) Zeriel (2) ok11 (2) Hal (2) 785, Total Lost votes Zsofia 791, Hero votes Blam 797, Hero unvotes Blam and votes Zeriel 805, Hal unvotes ok11 and votes JSexton 806, Santo unvotes JSexton JSexton (4) Blam (3) Zeriel (3) Hal (2) ok11 (1) Zsofia (1) 809, Zeriel unvotes ok11 and votes Hal 813, Pleo votes for JSexton JSexton (5) Blam, Zeriel, and Hal tied with (3) and Zsofia has (1) 825, Ped unvotes Blam and votes JSexton 826, Shadows first “look at the votes” post. I note this because it could affect the pattern from this point. 833, Jsexton votes Zeriel JSexton (6) Zeriel (4) Blam (3) Hal (3) Zsofia (1) 836, Mhaye posts an incorrect vote count, missing Heros vote on Zeriel - this gets corrected later. 863, Pedescribe unvotes JSexton, votes Zeriel 864, ok11 unvotes Blam and fake-votes JSexton 874, Nanook votes JSexton 880, Fretful P unvotes Blam 893, Blam votes Zeriel JSexton (6) Zeriel (6) Blam (1) Hal (3) Zsofia (1) JSexton has the tiebreaker 905, OAOW votes ok11 907, ok11 votes JSexton 913, Nanook votes himself then revotes JSexton 923, Mhaye posts a votecount: JSexton : 7 (BS PI, Zsofia, Rapier42, Hal Briston, Pleonast, Nanook o/t North Shore, ok11) Zeriel : 6 (Kat, amrussell, JSexton, Hero from Sector 7G, Pedescrobe, Blaster Master) Hal Briston : 3 (Oredigger, ShadowFacts, Zeriel) Zsofia : 1 (Total Lost) ok11 : 1 (OaOW) There were no further votes. Analysis next, this is a long post. ---
**Author:** ![Total\_Lost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e56c9b/32.png) [@Total\_Lost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Total_Lost)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2008, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1195 "2008-11-18T19:39:16Z")
> [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > I’m not sure what your point is here. Does the logic not follow that, if **JSexton** was a cover for someone, that you’re the most likely candidate? And thus, if that logic is being used against someone else in contention with you again, that those people shouldn’t be under suspicion? > > And if you are town? I think it’s unlikely because my primary reasons for finding you suspicious were stated before this whole **JSexton** thing even became an issue at all and I don’t feel like you’ve in any way adequately addressed my concerns. > > What would the blurb be if you are town? That the **JSexton** train was illfounded in the first place, as I stated Yesterday in no uncertain terms that I thought the motivation for **JSexton** ’s gambit was utterly lacking on both sides. > > That is, I don’t think the **JSexton** train itself necessarily means anything if you’re town. It’s not some sort of logical equivalence such that because your scum alignment implies something that your town alignment has to as well. If you’re town and **JSexton** is town, it means that, if **Hal** is scum, the scum didn’t have to do anything to save him because the top two trains, either of which would easily save him, were town. And if hes town, it just means that the top THREE candidates from Yesterday were all town and we need to rethink our approach. Did I read this right? Are you saying that you think the **Jsexton** gambit made as little sense to Town as to scum. That the “train” might not have been scum trying to save a scum-buddy, but might just have been scum laughing their ass off seeing three Town fighting to get lynched (or reather NOT get lynched). And even though you can see this as a likely scenario… you don’t have a problem voting for **Zeriel** toDay - thought we might NOT be able to learn anything from that lynch. And you don’t really see a big problem that the lynch of **Zeriel** - if Zeriel is Town - would mean **Hal** might get lynched toMorrow… But - and it IS a but - if then **Hal** turns out to also be Town… THEN (and only then?) do we need to re-think our approach??? Please tell me I got it wrong - because that can’t be what you meant??? ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2008, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1196 "2008-11-18T21:13:57Z")
> [@Total\_Lost](#): > > Did I read this right? Either you read it wrong, or I didn’t do a good job explaining my point. > [@](#): > > Are you saying that you think the **Jsexton** gambit made as little sense to Town as to scum. That the “train” might not have been scum trying to save a scum-buddy, but might just have been scum laughing their ass off seeing three Town fighting to get lynched (or reather NOT get lynched). No. I’m saying that he had as no reason to do what he did as town or scum from a motivational analysis perspective. I pointed this out Yesterday, as did at least one other person. However, what he did did look scummy, especially since it turned out badly, which is why I think that many of the townies that voted for him did, and the reasoning that any scum that voted for him feigned. What matters is what the motivation is for the scum to vote for him, did they vote for him with the knowledge that **Zeriel** was a fellow scum and they were trying to save him, as is this train of logic states, or do they have some other motivation. > [@](#): > > And even though you can see this as a likely scenario… you don’t have a problem voting for **Zeriel** toDay - thought we might NOT be able to learn anything from that lynch. Given that I think **Zeriel** is scum, I think it is possible, and in fact likely that they were trying to save him. However, my reasons for voting for **Zeriel** are independent of this voting pattern, and I’ve already stated that he is the person I find most scummy even without the voting patterns, just like I did Yesterday. However, there is the possibility that **Zeriel** is not scum, which means any scum voting for **JSexton** did so for some other motivation besides protecting him. While I think that is an unlikely scenario, it is not one that can be ignored. IOW, I want to lynch **Zeriel** because I think he’s scum, the potential to find information based upon his alignment is an effect of his lynch, not a cause. > [@](#): > > And you don’t really see a big problem that the lynch of **Zeriel** - if Zeriel is Town - would mean **Hal** might get lynched toMorrow… I think this dichotomy is a dangerous one. As it stands, lest new evidence surfaces, either **Hal** or **Zeriel** will be lynched, and as such, if the one that gets lynched is town, then of course there’s going to be concern that the other lynch candidate will blindly get lynched Tomorrow. Quite frankly, I think any conection between **JSexton** and **Hal** or **Zeriel** and **Hal** is specious at best. The evidence is plain as day that IF the **JSexton** lynch was pushed by scum to protect one of their own, it must be **Zeriel**. How anyone can possibly justify that **Hal** was ever in any real danger, I think the closest he got was 2-3 votes away from taking the lead, is completely beyond my comprehension. **Hal** was never in any danger, so that just doesn’t make sense. As such, I don’t think it makes sense to assume that either **Hal** or **Zeriel** HAS to be scum to justify the **JSexton** lynch voting pattern. I think if **Zeriel** is scum, that’s a very likely explanation of the scum’s motivation, and if he’s not, it could be any number of things possibly including that it doesn’t necessarily have a disprotionate number of scum on the wagon at all, because there simply wasn’t any scum motivation to push it. > [@](#): > > But - and it IS a but - if then **Hal** turns out to also be Town… THEN (and only then?) do we need to re-think our approach??? No, that’s not what I meant. Let’s assume **Zeriel** get’s lynched and comes up town (because the motivation question is already answered clearly if he’s scum). I think **Hal** ’s scuminess or towniness is independent of the **JSexton** voting pattern. If Hal is town, then the top three candidates were all town, and there’s clearly no reason for scum to favor any one of those three lynches over nother. Even if **Hal** is scum, there’s no reason for them to push the **JSexton** wagon, because **Zeriel** was also over him and was town. IOWs, I don’t think **Zeriel** ’s alignment provides any insight into whether **Hal** is town or scum. > [@](#): > > Please tell me I got it wrong - because that can’t be what you meant??? I’ll try to be succinct here. I’m voting for **Zeriel** because I think he’s scum, and I feel I have sufficient reasoning without the whole information to be gained from his lynch part. I also think that if **Zeriel** turns up scum, we get some very solid candidates, there’s a high probability that some of the oddly timed votes on **JSexton** were intended to save him and we should pursue those individuals Tomorrow. If **Zeriel** comes up town, we don’t get any useful information for dissecting the **JSexton** vote pattern. I don’t think either result gives us any useful information for determining **Hal** ’s alignment. Is that better? ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2008, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1197 "2008-11-18T21:20:18Z")
> [@Hero\_From\_Sector\_7G](#): > > You keep seeing it because everyone is asking me to justify a FOS. It was me listing hunches based on feelings. After some real analysis you’ll notice where my vote landed. Well, to be honest, I haven’t fully caught up, so I don’t think I’ve seen why you’ve voted for him. But still, this reasoning isn’t good enough. You said **Hal** voted for no reason, but when I read his vote post, that very much looks like a reason. So either, you are smudging him, or you don’t see his vote justification as having sufficient reason. Which one is it? ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2008, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1198 "2008-11-18T21:32:30Z")
> [@ShadowFacts](#): > > Please see my post 1163 for a rebuttal to this. Fair point, and I think I see where you’re coming from now with some of the later votes. What I don’t get is why isn’t **Zeriel** included in there anywhere; he was never in less trouble of being lynched Yesterday than **Hal** was. For instance, the timing of **Pleonast** ’s vote is such that it helped **Hal** and **Zeriel** equally. And **ok11** ’s vote technically didn’t do anything, but it also made it so a potential last minute vote switch from **JSexton** or to **Zeriel** wouldn’t have jeopardized **Zeriel**. IOW, no vote on JSexton helped **Zeriel** any less than it helped **Hal** , but some helped **Zeriel** more, so I still think that he’s a much more likely candidate for any potential protective voting by scum. ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2008, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1199 "2008-11-18T21:43:12Z")
> [@ShadowFacts](#): > > **Hero** is not the only one who has said this, but it is also simply not true. When **Zeriel** voted for **Hal** , it was **JSexton** 4, **Zeriel** 3, **Hal** 3. I’ve posted this multiple times. Oops, I missed this. Actually, that is two votes out of the lead. One vote would tie him, but **JSexton** would still get lynched because the of the tie breaker, so it would take a second vote to put him in the lead. Thus, the closest he ever got to being lynched is two votes away. **Zeriel** , OTOH, was tied with **JSexton** at another point, which put him only one vote out of the lead. ---
**Author:** ![Total\_Lost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e56c9b/32.png) [@Total\_Lost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Total_Lost)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2008, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1200 "2008-11-18T21:48:11Z")
> [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > If **Zeriel** comes up town, we don’t get any useful information for dissecting the **JSexton** vote pattern. I don’t think either result gives us any useful information for determining **Hal** ’s alignment. > > Is that better? YES! Thanks! This I got right - and I would really like to hear from anyone else voting for **Zeriel** and **Hal** if they really intend to vote for the ofter “lynch candidate” ToMorrow or if it ends here? I don’t feel that **Zeriel** or **Hal** can “prove” the other one being Town/Scum - and I really don’t like the way the **JSexton** -lynch have been used to make them top-voted toDay ☹ [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198.md?page=59) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198.md?page=61)