# Sdmb mafia **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [October 30, 2008, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198 "2008-10-30T02:29:55Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 62
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2008, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1221 "2008-11-19T19:16:40Z")
If Rapier42 has an excuse for being not around due to RL or if he’s already voted and unvoted today (didn’t look) then probably you should let it slide. One vote can’t change the outcome here. ---
**Author:** ![ok11](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/8baadc/32.png) [@ok11](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ok11)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2008, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1222 "2008-11-19T19:33:52Z")
> [@Zeriel](#): > > If Rapier42 has an excuse for being not around due to RL or if he’s already voted and unvoted today (didn’t look) then probably you should let it slide. One vote can’t change the outcome here. **Rapier42** didn’t vote/unvote toDay, but he FOSed **Boozahol Squid, P.I.** due to his vote for you. He said he was [busy at work](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=10464708&postcount=1194), and seemed to have his own interpretation of the vote pattern. The reason I’m bringing this up is because **Pleonast** said several times that he sees something in the vote patterns, but won’t be able to formalize it until Tomorrow. It worries me, because he might get night-killed or something might come up in real life (as it has during the previous Day), and we won’t get to hear his theory. So I’d love to hear what **Pleonast** is thinking. It’s not like we have much else to discuss right now, so we might as well get a jump start on Tomorrow. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2008, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1223 "2008-11-19T19:34:43Z")
> [@Zeriel](#): > > Yeah, Shadow, thanks for the kind words but you’re getting a FOS for essentially trying to get the townies to waste more time on me instead of starting on looking for more scum. > > Discussing me is pointless at this point–my style is aggressive and occasionally careless and I look scummy as a result. I accept that to a point. So let’s hear some talk about some other people. WTF does this even mean? Apparently I can’t open my mouth without doing something suspicious. Jesus Christ… :mad: ---
**Author:** ![Rapier42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/90db22/32.png) [@Rapier42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rapier42)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2008, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1224 "2008-11-19T19:37:41Z")
> [@Zeriel](#): > > If Rapier42 has an excuse for being not around due to RL or if he’s already voted and unvoted today (didn’t look) then probably you should let it slide. One vote can’t change the outcome here. I’m working on it. Just finished a reread of ok11, but didn’t turn up anything. It doesn’t help that my phone won’t stop ringing. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2008, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1225 "2008-11-19T19:50:17Z")
> [@Zeriel](#): > > I don’t like ShadowFacts because his analysis of the voting patterns focused on Hal and ignored me, and that felt like I was getting set up to be conspicous by my absence, regardless of whether or not he could follow up and make himself look good by formalizing that he thought the tipping point was when Hal and I were tied. Unfuckingbelievable. Are you actually serious? You think I’m scum and my plan was to make an all out attack on **Hal Briston** , ignoring you on purpose, all in an effort to make your absence from my analysis conspicuous so people would think that I was ignoring you because you’re my scum partner, to get you lynched. (And somehow make myself “look good” later). I must be some kind of goddamned super Bond Villain. Where’s my fluffy cat? ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2008, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1226 "2008-11-19T20:03:05Z")
> [@ok11](#): > > The reason I’m bringing this up is because **Pleonast** said several times that he sees something in the vote patterns, but won’t be able to formalize it until Tomorrow. It worries me, because he might get night-killed or something might come up in real life (as it has during the previous Day), and we won’t get to hear his theory. So I’d love to hear what **Pleonast** is thinking. It’s not like we have much else to discuss right now, so we might as well get a jump start on Tomorrow. The reason I don’t go into more detail is because there’s not enough information yet. In previous games, You Solve It in particular, I analyzed the voting record. I made a few assumptions on how scum and town were likely to vote and came up with scores of how “scummy” each player’s voting record was. It only works when there’s enough Days to work with. At this point, I can look at the voting record and get a hunch or two, but it’s nothing worth crunching numbers on. Although I was scum in that game, I used the method honestly and it worked fairly well. It picked out my fellow scum **HazelNutCoffee** as a scummy voter, leading to her lynch. (She did not appreciate that bussing.) Later, it would have picked me as well, but I manipulated the result by including the assumption that I was town. I’ll still use that assumption for determining my own vote (since it would be stupid for me not to include info I have), but I’ll keep it out of my published analysis. While the votes on any individual Day don’t get much information, over the course of the game it really adds up. (I think **Hazel** was caught by it on Day Five.) As Scum, it is really difficult to vote as a Townie would over the long run, and probably counter-productive if they do. So I find my method very useful. It’s complementary to the approaches that other players take. I didn’t get a chance to use it in my last game (Marvel on the other board) because the scum Night-killed me before I got the chance. Because they knew I would and they had already made the mistake of voting in a very non-Townie pattern. I won’t be surprised if I get Night-killed here either, but since it looks like confirmables are the favored targets, I should last another two Nights at least (assuming the second killer(s) appreciates analysis). (Sorry, I can’t find the You Solve It mafia thread. Can anyone find it?) ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2008, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1227 "2008-11-19T20:06:09Z")
> [@Pleonast](#): > > (Sorry, I can’t find the You Solve It mafia thread. Can anyone find it?) I am going to keep posting like this until people start using the damn resource. [The Wiki has the link you need.](http://wiki.flyingcowofdoom.com/mafiaWiki/Gaming_History) ---
**Author:** ![ok11](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/8baadc/32.png) [@ok11](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ok11)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2008, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1228 "2008-11-19T20:14:31Z")
Thanks for your reply, **Pleonast**. The point system sounds really interesting. And **NAF1138** , I’ve been using the Wiki a lot lately, so your PR campaign is working 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2008, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1229 "2008-11-19T20:14:56Z")
> [@NAF1138](#): > > I am going to keep posting like this until people start using the damn resource. > [The Wiki has the link you need.](http://wiki.flyingcowofdoom.com/mafiaWiki/Gaming_History) Actually, I checked the wiki first. But I saw that the You Solve It page didn’t exist, so assumed that no one had entered in the SDMB link. I now see that it’s cleverly hidden in the reference numbers. We should probably make that more clear. ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2008, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1230 "2008-11-19T20:26:26Z")
> [@ShadowFacts](#): > > Unfuckingbelievable. Are you actually serious? You think I’m scum and my plan was to make an all out attack on **Hal Briston** , ignoring you on purpose, all in an effort to make your absence from my analysis conspicuous so people would think that I was ignoring you because you’re my scum partner, to get you lynched. (And somehow make myself “look good” later). > > I must be some kind of goddamned super Bond Villain. Where’s my fluffy cat? I’ve seen it done before–and you’ve made yourself “look good” now–you expressly pointed out your analysis that the critical time was when Hal and I were tied and JSexton was one ahead. Also, take a nice deep breath, man. You ain’t the one on the block anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Rapier42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/90db22/32.png) [@Rapier42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rapier42)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2008, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1231 "2008-11-19T20:42:42Z")
I have to be short, sorry. I don’t see any reason to be suspicious of Hal or Zeriel at this time. I know folks are using Yesterdays vote record as a data point, but I don’t see enough there to justify a vote by itself. I agree that there may be goodness in there, but I believe it’s going to take futher Days to correlate the data and reveal scum. I wish I had the time right now to devote a full re-read to the thread, because thats really what I need to do to place an informed vote. As I mentioned, I’ve scanned the posts of a couple players\* and didn’t find anything voteable, and I don’t have time to do more than that. Without knowing when Today will end, I’m forced to place a gut vote. I don’t understand why Shadow chose Hal to go after, without mentioning Zeriel, and I’m not persuaded by the justifications he’s (he? right?) offered since then. I hope I’ll have time before Dusk to come back and get that re-read done, and place a more-reasoned vote (or justify this one). **Vote Shadowfacts** \*I shouldn’t have mentioned your name, ok11, because I didn’t find anything, so what I really did there was smudge you for no reason. Many apologies. ---
**Author:** ![Rapier42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/90db22/32.png) [@Rapier42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rapier42)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2008, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1232 "2008-11-19T20:46:03Z")
One more thing, sorry - Kat, could you restate your case against Zeriel, please? ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2008, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1233 "2008-11-19T21:24:20Z")
> [@Rapier42](#): > > Amrussell, thats a big fat _mea culpa_. I went to look for my response to JSexton, and couldn’t find it. I know I worked on it, and I went through the last portion of Yesterday thinking he was ignoring my reply. So I wrote him off. > > * * * > > Here’s another take on Yesterdays vote record: > > [snip] > > Analysis next, this is a long post. That’s a real shame. I know you’re busy - can you post this analysis today? ---
**Author:** ![Hero\_From\_Sector\_7G](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/65b543/32.png) [@Hero\_From\_Sector\_7G](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hero_From_Sector_7G)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2008, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1234 "2008-11-19T22:26:03Z")
> [@ShadowFacts](#): > > Unfuckingbelievable. Are you actually serious? You think I’m scum and my plan was to make an all out attack on **Hal Briston** , ignoring you on purpose, all in an effort to make your absence from my analysis conspicuous so people would think that I was ignoring you because you’re my scum partner, to get you lynched. (And somehow make myself “look good” later). I don’t mean to pipe in for **Zeriel** but you’ve asked a similar question to me earlier. It strikes me as odd that you are describing your own arguments advocating **Hal** ’s lynch as an “all out attack.” Here you are again on a similar wavelength. > [@ShadowFacts](#): > > now Hero has even voted for me, which is total crap. Hero, what do you think I have to gain as scum by being this vocal against Hal? … (continued below) This has me wondering a few things. 1. Twice you’ve sworn at someone who has put a vote on you, despite being nowhere near lynch leader today. If you really wanted to promote discussion you would accept that some might not agree with your views. Swearing at people in a game seems incredibly defensive, especially when (if you are town) you would have no way of _really_ knowing if your arguments are true. 2. I’m having difficulty parsing the second quote. There is no reason for any of us to assume our strong arguments will lead directly to a lynch. There is the possibility that you never expected **Hal** to actually _be_ lynched. Scum have to put their votes somewhere too, and the more vocal they can be the more it appears they are town. You were vocal against **Hal** yesterday and he didn’t get lynched, it could be a good place to start day 3. Especially when there was another person who got more votes than your target yesterday. But you didn’t mention that part, and now that **Hal** is unlikely to be lynched today you are describing yourself actions as an “all out attack.” 3. Finally, these quotes feel like a betrayal of your true knowledge. You ask us to ponder your motivation _if you were scum_. However, I’m pondering your motivation in general. If you are town you would accept there is a chance **Hal** is also town. You would have considered this before your “all out attack” and perhaps curbed your enthusiasm. Rather than directly acknowledge this, you set up a pre-emptive WIFOM argument: “Why would scum go after someone they know is town? It is sooo dumb, I’d never do that if I were scum” > [@ShadowFacts](#): > > …If we lynch him and he’s Town, I’m toast. Why would scummy me want a trade like that? But I’m more than willing to put it to the test. Yeah, so willing that you swear at people who vote on you. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2008, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1235 "2008-11-19T23:19:14Z")
> [@Hero\_From\_Sector\_7G](#): > > I don’t mean to pipe in for **Zeriel** but you’ve asked a similar question to me earlier. It strikes me as odd that you are describing your own arguments advocating **Hal** ’s lynch as an “all out attack.” > > Here you are again on a similar wavelength. > > This has me wondering a few things. > > 1. Twice you’ve sworn at someone who has put a vote on you, despite being nowhere near lynch leader today. If you really wanted to promote discussion you would accept that some might not agree with your views. Swearing at people in a game seems incredibly defensive, especially when (if you are town) you would have no way of _really_ knowing if your arguments are true. > > 2. I’m having difficulty parsing the second quote. There is no reason for any of us to assume our strong arguments will lead directly to a lynch. There is the possibility that you never expected **Hal** to actually _be_ lynched. Scum have to put their votes somewhere too, and the more vocal they can be the more it appears they are town. You were vocal against **Hal** yesterday and he didn’t get lynched, it could be a good place to start day 3. Especially when there was another person who got more votes than your target yesterday. But you didn’t mention that part, and now that **Hal** is unlikely to be lynched today you are describing yourself actions as an “all out attack.” > > 3. Finally, these quotes feel like a betrayal of your true knowledge. You ask us to ponder your motivation _if you were scum_. However, I’m pondering your motivation in general. If you are town you would accept there is a chance **Hal** is also town. You would have considered this before your “all out attack” and perhaps curbed your enthusiasm. Rather than directly acknowledge this, you set up a pre-emptive WIFOM argument: "Why would scum go after someone they know is town? It is sooo dumb, I’d never do that if I were scum"Yeah, so willing that you swear at people who vote on you. You are right about one thing: I am getting _very_ frustrated by the game today. When are we ever going to learn from previous games, I wonder? I’m not going to bother rebutting you that I swore at two people voting for me. It’s not true and not worth the effort since you never respond to my criticisms (and apparently nobody else bothers to read them). But I AM willing to put myself to the test - **Unvote Hal Briston** **Vote ShadowFacts** Let’s get this over with before my head explodes. C’mon, come help me flame out, it’ll be fun! I only need two more votes! ---
**Author:** ![Hal\_Briston](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a9a28c/32.png) [@Hal\_Briston](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hal_Briston)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2008, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1236 "2008-11-19T23:28:44Z")
\…I read **Hero** ’s post and think “Hmmm…that was kinda flirting with the line between playing the game and being a bit of a jerk”, but hey, it happens. Then I click refresh, and I see **Shadow** pouring a nice, tall glass of WIFOM. Man, I [del]love[/del] [del]hate[/del] [del]love[/del] [del]hate[/del] [del]love[/del] [del]hate[/del] get a little frustrated by this game sometimes… ---
**Author:** ![Boozahol\_Squid\_P.I](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/d9b06d/32.png) [@Boozahol\_Squid\_P.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boozahol_Squid_P.I)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2008, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1237 "2008-11-19T23:37:47Z")
> [@ShadowFacts](#): > > But I AM willing to put myself to the test - > > **Unvote Hal Briston** > **Vote ShadowFacts** > > Let’s get this over with before my head explodes. C’mon, come help me flame out, it’ll be fun! I only need two more votes! Fwah-hubba? ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2008, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1238 "2008-11-19T23:38:17Z")
Wow, **Shadow**. You’re hardly on the radar and now this? A few players complaining about you (that’s a general you) is hardly unusual. You (that’s a specific you; I hate English) are nowhere close to a lynch. And even if you were, Townies get lynched all the time. It’s what we do–be sacrificed for the team. And I don’t think we’re doing too badly as a Town (of course, I’ll change my mind on that if **Zeriel** comes back Town). By my estimation, we have at least two more bad lynches before we’re at lynch or lose. Is there anything in particular you think we’re messing up on, other than disagreeing who the best lynch is Today? ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2008, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1239 "2008-11-20T00:11:47Z")
I’m sorry, everyone, I’ve let the game get to my head. As much as I would like to stop playing right now, that’s selfish and not fair to Town. So I’m going to: **Unvote ShadowFacts** …and take the rest of the Day off. I need some time away. Consider this my final post until toMorrow, when if I’m still alive I promise I’ll keep it cool. ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2008, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1240 "2008-11-20T00:17:47Z")
> [@Pleonast](#): > > And I don’t think we’re doing too badly as a Town (of course, I’ll change my mind on that if **Zeriel** comes back Town). I want to hear you say, Tomorrow, that you think we ARE doing badly when I come back Town. For me. > [@ShadowFacts](#): > > I’m sorry, everyone, I’ve let the game get to my head. As much as I would like to stop playing right now, that’s selfish and not fair to Town. So I’m going to: > > **Unvote ShadowFacts** > > ..and take the rest of the Day off. I need some time away. Consider this my final post until toMorrow, when if I’m still alive I promise I’ll keep it cool. Not to harp, Shadow, but you got a reason there for not re-establishing your vote? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198.md?page=61) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198.md?page=63)