# Sdmb mafia **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [October 30, 2008, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198 "2008-10-30T02:29:55Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 75
**Author:** ![ok11](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/8baadc/32.png) [@ok11](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ok11)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2008, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1481 "2008-12-02T16:57:19Z")
> [@Zsofia](#): > > Which is another reason I claimed - somebody, somewhere (who may already be dead) had the power to silence somebody for a whole Day, and it wasn’t me, FYI. It’s not necessarily someone’s power. It could just be a punishment for losing 2 masons. If it’s a power, then it’s an anti-town power, and the only anti-town players who are already dead are the two PFKs. Do you think one of them did it? It seems a bit too convenient that the one mason you’ve been protecting is the one that hasn’t been targeted by scum. The only SDMB member I can think of to fit your s/n is **MacTech** (didn’t Mac advertise with “it just works”?). Anyway, I’m going to unvote, because we can sort of test your claim toNight. If you’re really protecting **amrussell** then he should be alive Tomorrow (and you’ll probably be dead). And if you’re false claiming than keeping you alive might mean that scum will play WIFOM with us and leave **amrussell** alone. So I think it’s more advantageous to not ban you toDay. \*\*Unvote Zsofia \*\* I’m not going to vote for the next leading candidate. Here’s an additional reason why I don’t see **Hero** being scum. On Day 1, he is the top candidate on the 48-hour vote count with 4 votes. Scum could easily swing the vote to **Nanook** , who also has four votes, or potentially to **NBC** who has 3, but they don’t. Why wouldn’t scum try to save one of their own? At that point only 16 out of 23 players voted, so it’s likely that not all scum have their votes tied up elsewhere. At the 74-hour vote count, **Hero** isn’t in the lead anymore. Now 7 people are voting for **Nanook** , but the additional 3 are all town. So it wasn’t scum that got the heat off **Hero**. I’ll vote for **Total Lost** , because she was my top choice today anyway. **Vote Total Lost** ---
**Author:** ![Zsofia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/7bcc69/32.png) [@Zsofia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zsofia)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2008, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1482 "2008-12-02T16:59:47Z")
I don’t know, maybe that’s what a PFK doctor does - like what I do, only in the daytime. Or maybe it’s completely unrelated. ---
**Author:** ![Zsofia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/7bcc69/32.png) [@Zsofia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zsofia)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2008, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1483 "2008-12-02T17:02:34Z")
Oh, you’re probably right about MacTech - hadn’t thought of that. He’s a good guy. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2008, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1484 "2008-12-02T17:04:11Z")
> [@Hero\_From\_Sector\_7G](#): > > Hmn. Shadow, you still feel I’m the best lynch candidate? Maybe not. I’ve been getting an extremely townie vibe from you recently. I’m strongly considering changing my vote to **Pleonast**. In fact, fuck it, the Day could end at any moment. Time for a gut check. **Unvote Hero from Sector 7G Vote Pleonast** Let’s see how that shakes things up. ---
**Author:** ![Total\_Lost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e56c9b/32.png) [@Total\_Lost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Total_Lost)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2008, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1485 "2008-12-02T18:20:45Z")
> [@ShadowFacts](#): > > You know, I almost missed this in the barrage of numbers, but this hypothesis is exactly what I was talking about when we discussed your “system” earlier. You’ve actually weighted your formula so that those who voted get more “suspicion points” (or whatever you want to call them) than those who didn’t. This on a Day that was extremely short and almost half (6/14) of players did not or could not vote (i.e. **amrussell** ). I find this hypothesis to be _extremely_ dubious. > > **FOS Pleonast** To be honest I don’t really get the numbers. But I did find it very uncomfortable to get a vote based on the numbers from Pleo and not being able to say or do anything about it. Since we can’t all agree on **Hero** and we should not go for Zsofia after the claim I’ll \*\* Unban Hero \*\* and \*\*Ban Pleonast \*\* ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2008, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1486 "2008-12-02T18:27:44Z")
> [@Total\_Lost](#): > > “He” is a “SHE” and she’s in an other Time Zone. SHE is going to be asleep soon but hope to get something to post in the morning. > IRL has made me not post too much the last couple of days… sorry about that. I have been reading and I have a lot to say! WTB little gender indicators like we have on the off-board site. Then I won’t keep offending people. Sorry. ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2008, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1487 "2008-12-02T18:33:37Z")
> [@Zsofia](#): > > With regards to the Shadow v. Hero thing today, it just feels like tail-chasing. The whole game has seemed to involve a lot of sound and fury and not a whole lot of substance. We had JSexton shooting himself in the foot and provoking a tempest in a teapot, we go around and around and around with Shadow and Hero and Hal, and none of it seems to mean very much or get us any closer at all to finding scum. I had thought Kat was really staying under the radar and coming up just frequently enough to make sufficiently substantial posts that she wouldn’t get any suspicion, and she turned out town. As for Darth, do we have anything at all to go on besides the fact that he’s not on the list of players or the list of roles? There do seem to be post restrictions in this game - the Al power, amrussell’s silencing yesterDay, etc. He seemed to be citing some sort of condition to come in and get a vote in so he’d survive. I don’t know what to make of it at all - I can see a last minute extra person as being a scum or town thing. I just don’t feel I have any information on him whatsoever and nothing to hang a vote on or not. [/quote] Thank you. I’d add more on this, but it looks like there’s been some vote switching, so I’ll wait to put any comments until I see what happened. > [@](#): > > How has Hal shrugged off all the suspicion that was on him earlier? I will say that this sort of comment bothers me. This is a text book smudge. The reason he “shrugged” most of the suspicion from earlier is basically that it wasn’t particularly substantiated in a way that most of us found it compelling, plus that whole argument developed into the **Hero** vs. **Shadow** thing we’ve had thus far Today. ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2008, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1488 "2008-12-02T18:54:44Z")
> [@Zsofia](#): > > I didn’t end with a “shiny ‘look at Hal’”, I pointed out that at one time Hal’s head was firmly on the chopping block, or at least on the auxiliary chopping block. The next Day, it seems like everybody forgot about him, although the reasons he was being examined did not change. I think that’s interesting, and possibly telling since we’re down to so many scum and so few town that if scum doesn’t bring it up and town is tired of the discussion and also wary of that whole auto-lynch-yesterday’s-other-candidate thing, then the case against a player could pretty easily be dropped. Here’s the thing. If we’re always pursuing a second or third candidate when the first one is lynched and isn’t scum, they’re we’re essentially operating randomly and not utilizing that information. The main reason **Hal** was under suspicion at all was due to **Shadow** ’s original analysis (which has been discussed to death). With the new information that we’ve had, AFAICT, I don’t think anyone other than **Shadow** seems to think there’s a whole lot of merit to that argument. So sure, having been near the noose and not now looks suspicious on a cursory glance, but not when you think about it. Let’s assume **Hal** is scum, sure the scum aren’t going to push him, but that’s not going to stop anyone from pushing the logic that originally made him suspicious. The problem is, no one else seems to be buying that logic, and it’s certianly not the case that everyone is scum. Clearly, the case wasn’t convincing enough to town, so why should the scum keep running with it? Now let’s assum he’s town. Again, we run into the same problem. Sure, the scum may want to push it, but the bottom line is, the argument still wasn’t convincing anyone and not everyone can be scum. The scum don’t have a straight majority, so even voting as a bloc, they’d have to convince some townies to vote with them, and without a convincing argument, it just won’t happen. These scenarios are indistinguishable, because an unconvincing argument is an unconvincing argument. And if you think it is a convincing argument, you need to explain why you think it is. Otherwise, just pointing out that he’s not suspicious anymore when I’ve put a bit of pressure on you doesn’t look good. ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2008, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1489 "2008-12-02T18:59:49Z")
> [@Pleonast](#): > > Day Four hypothesis: scum try to avoid not voting, while Townies have lost motivation. (14=8+5+1) > Non-Voters: 5\*5/14 votes \*0.75 == 1.34 =\> 0.45 pts for Squid, Hal, Rapier > Voters: 5-1.34 == 3.66 =\> 0.52 pts for ok, Hero, Zsofia, Total, Shadow, BlaM, Pleo Whoa… 😕 Townies want to vote to catch scum. Scum want to vote to look like townies. Not to mention that the Day ended very quickly and I think a number of the people who didn’t vote didn’t even chime in at all. I’d really like to hear your reasoning behind this one. ---
**Author:** ![Hal\_Briston](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a9a28c/32.png) [@Hal\_Briston](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hal_Briston)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2008, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1490 "2008-12-02T19:04:48Z")
Ok, I think we’re rapid heading towards “screwed”. So before that happens, it’s time to head off the **Pleo** wagon. I, like **Peekercpa** , was an SDSAB. However, I aspired to so much more, for at the start of the game I was the Wannabe Admin. Originally, I was spending nights looking for the Administrator (detective), at which point I’d become a full-fledged Admin myself. Bad news: The Admin was offed Night 1. Good news: For my purposes, that counts as “finding” him. So since Night 2, I, “NextTrick”, have been keeping busy. Since I don’t want to see more townies booted, it’s time for a reveal. Night 2: Pleonast – Power Role whose name I won’t publically state unless Pleo wants me to (no need giving scum extra info) Night 3: Fretful Porpentine – “Celebrity” Night 4: Hero – “Member” I’ve been using my investigations on those who really didn’t ping me very much, hoping to find under-the-radar scum. No luck. But, at least we have solid info on two of those involved. And while we’re at it, Unvote **Zsofia** ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2008, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1491 "2008-12-02T19:09:08Z")
> [@Zsofia](#): > > Because of the “what happened to Hal?” thing and the sudden case against me, I think ok11’s analysis where it posits that at least some of Blaster Master, BS PI, Hal Briston, and Total Lost are scum looks pretty good. Hal’s been laying low since he didn’t die, Boozy hasn’t been active lately, people are calling out Total Lost’s participation even now, and Blaster Master has suddenly led a brigade against me. Well, I know I’m not scum, and while of course there’s perfectly townie motivation for going after anybody, I think it’s interesting that Blaster Master has chosen to “start new discussion” by going after me, of all the choices at hand. What? I started a brigade against you, when it’s me and one other person voting for you? I called you out because you have a low post count and I have no read on you. I called you out because I wanted to see you participate more and get a read on you. And here you’re saying you like that that group (which interestingly enough, includes me) looks suspicious, and mention that people are calling out **Total Lost** ’s participation, while she actually has MORE posts than you (or at least did when she was called out), and that’s okay, but calling you out for being non-participating is bad? Not to mention, of course, the OMGUS smudge against me. This looks more to me like scum throwing mud and seeing what sticks than actually analyzing what’s going on. Beyond that, you completely misrepresented **ok11** ’s analysis. She was specifically looking for people that weren’t grouping together based upon a hypothesis of scum distribution around the **JSexton** vote. Some of the scenarios had clusters that included some of that group, and some did not. I don’t like how you used that part of her analysis that could help you smudge people, but completely ignore her conclusion which made you look bad. ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2008, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1492 "2008-12-02T19:26:02Z")
> [@ok11](#): > > I still don’t buy that we’ve got a Vig, so I propose we test him/her. I suggest we let **amrussell** pick a target for the Vig, and see what happens. There are several reasons why **amrussell** should be the one to pick the target. He’s our only confirmed townie. It’s too late in the Day to try to get a consensus. There are too many scum now who will steer us toward a wrong target. > > Tomorrow (if there is a tomorrow), one of 2 things will happen. If the person named by **amrussell** isn’t banned, we can safely assume there’s no Vig, and adjust our hypothesis about the game accordingly. If **amrussell** ’s target is banned, then we’ve either got a Vig, or scum are playing WIFOM with us. If it’s the latter, than at least we’ve controlled whom the scum take out, and hopefully **amrussell** ’s pick is high on everyone’s suspicion list and removing that player will help us focus better on finding scum. > > I think if there is a Vig, there’s no reason for him/her not to target **amrussell** ’s pick. It’s true that **amrussell** doesn’t have any extra knowledge, but based on the Vig’s track record, **amrussell** ’s pick can’t be worse than the Vig’s. I really hate to comment on giving direction to Vigs or not, but I have to say that I think this is a bad idea. First, I think it’s extraordinarily unlikely that scum have an extra kill, so we’re stuck between having a Vig or an SK. No matter what **amrussell** chooses, the Vig or SK kill will look the same. And what if he happens to choose the Vig or SK? Obviously, they won’t kill themselves. Vigs are confirmable by claiming, saying who they’ll kill, and following through, and eventually killing scum. However, I’m not in favor of that because an SK could pull that too, AND either way, a Vig or SK is the only way for us to climb out of LyLo for the rest of the game. That said, I have no problems with **amrussell** providing suggestions, since at least we can be sure that his motivations are pro-town. I just have issue with necessarily drawing any sort of conclusions about whether that particular target is killed or not. ---
**Author:** ![ok11](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/8baadc/32.png) [@ok11](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ok11)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2008, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1493 "2008-12-02T19:26:14Z")
> [@Hal\_Briston](#): > > So since Night 2, I, “NextTrick”, have been keeping busy. Since I don’t want to see more townies booted, it’s time for a reveal. I don’t know what to make of this claim. I’d like to believe it, especially since we seriously need a detective to save us. On the other hand, some things just don’t make sense. So when the Day started, your pool of unknowns was only 6 people, and the best you could come up with was a vote for **Darth**? Have you been bread crumbing? Can you link your crumbs? Why did you unvote without re-voting? If you think **Pleonast** is a power role, wouldn’t you rather vote for the next top candidate (even if you risk banning a vanilla)? ---
**Author:** ![Hal\_Briston](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a9a28c/32.png) [@Hal\_Briston](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hal_Briston)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2008, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1494 "2008-12-02T19:28:55Z")
First off, with a lack of any other glaring suspect: Ban **ShadowFacts** Which, of course, begs the obvious question: Why didn’t I investigate **Shadow** , since I voted for him? Simple – I’m a bad investigator. This is my third time with this type of role, and the first two times I wasted just about every investigation by going after those who pinged me (i.e., they came back clean). I figured that maybe, just maybe, if I concentrated on those who _weren’t_ pinging me, I’d get lucky. Ah well. ---
**Author:** ![ok11](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/8baadc/32.png) [@ok11](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ok11)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2008, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1495 "2008-12-02T19:29:05Z")
**Blaster Master** and **amrussell** - fair enough about the Vig idea. I didn’t see a downside, but apparently there is one. ---
**Author:** ![Hal\_Briston](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a9a28c/32.png) [@Hal\_Briston](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hal_Briston)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2008, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1496 "2008-12-02T19:37:58Z")
In reverse order: > [@ok11](#): > > Why did you unvote without re-voting? If you think **Pleonast** is a power role, wouldn’t you rather vote for the next top candidate (even if you risk banning a vanilla)? I did revote, but obviously the two posts were on top of each other. And I don’t want to risk banning a vanilla, I want to ban scum. > [@ok11](#): > > Have you been bread crumbing? Can you link your crumbs? Nope…simple reason: I suck at it – beyond belief. If I tried to breadcrumb, it would’ve either been utterly meaningless, or it would’ve been picked up on by scum. Case in point for those who have been playing for awhile: “Yo, Oracle!” :smack: > [@ok11](#): > > So when the Day started, your pool of unknowns was only 6 people, and the best you could come up with was a vote for **Darth**? Ummm…yeah. I had a very valid reason for doubting his story, so I voted for him. The smaller pool doesn’t somehow negate his possible scumminess. > [@ok11](#): > > I don’t know what to make of this claim. I’d like to believe it, especially since we seriously need a detective to save us. Would you like me to point out how this is one of the scummiest statements made so far this game, or should we let someone else? For that last one, we get: Unvote **ShadowFacts** Ban **ok11** ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2008, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1497 "2008-12-02T19:40:56Z")
> [@Zsofia](#): > > Okay, I didn’t want to do this, but it’s a short day here at work and I’m just not sure if I’ll be able to get on later, in case the day ends as early as possible. > > I’m a Technician, **itjustworkstech**. I don’t know “who” my screen name is supposed to be a play on, though. I’m like a doctor, but when I’m protecting people I also render them powerless. I have been protecting **amrussell**. Well %#$^! I’m not sure what to think of this claim. I can’t say I find it particularly convincing, since this would mean we essentially had two Doctors (granted, one was PFK) and yet not a single kill has been blocked yet. Assuming random kills that’s only a 46% probability, but since they weren’t, that probability is likely much lower. Still, having a power role could also be reasonable motivation for your behavior. If you are being honest, then the benefit of having another Doctor could help us climb out of LyLo and protect our only confirmed town; if you’re lying, we catch scum, but considering there’s several other out there, I think the cost of this lynch is too great without mroe information. Unvote **Zsofia** However, as I said earlier, most of what I’ve mentioneded about **Zsofia** ’s behavior also applies to **Total Lost**. I acknowledge that she mentioned IRL issues, but others have posted about the same or less and made their presences much more noticeable. Ban **Total Lost** ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2008, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1498 "2008-12-02T19:42:09Z")
NETA: BAH! I need to learn to preview. Ban **Total Lost** ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2008, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1499 "2008-12-02T19:57:15Z")
> [@Hal\_Briston](#): > > Which, of course, begs the obvious question: Why didn’t I investigate **Shadow** , since I voted for him? Simple – I’m a bad investigator. This is my third time with this type of role, and the first two times I wasted just about every investigation by going after those who pinged me (i.e., they came back clean). I figured that maybe, just maybe, if I concentrated on those who _weren’t_ pinging me, I’d get lucky. Ah well. Actually, just as a point of theory, because I love theory questions, I want to point out that confirming townies is more valuable than confirming scum. The optimal theory investigation for a detective is someone who, A, is likely to be town and, B, likely to live at least until the detective has had an opportunity to claim. I really don’t want to get into the discussion since it’s not exactly relevant, but if you want to read about it, **NAF** and I discussed it at length in the Simpletown game (at least I think it was that game). Either way, if you’re telling the truth, regardless of whether you did it on purpose or not, the potential for providing us with 2 confirmed townies at this point is good. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2008, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1500 "2008-12-02T20:08:34Z")
Dear Og, my head is spinning! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198.md?page=74) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198.md?page=76)