# Sdmb mafia **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [October 30, 2008, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198 "2008-10-30T02:29:55Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 77
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1521 "2008-12-03T13:57:39Z")
I’m going to go back to this, because it’s a convenient list: > [@ok11](#): > > Vote Analysis (Part 1 of 2) > I divided the rest of the players into two groups: those who voted for **Jsexton** (group 1 = **BS PI, Zsofia, Rapier42, Hal Briston, Pleonast, ok11** ) and those who didn’t (group 2 = **Hero from Sector 7G, Blaster Master, ShadowFacts, Total Lost, (Darth)**). I’ve added Ok11 and Darth into the mix. Now, here’s where we are. \*\*\*If \*\*\*we believe all the claims made today (and the accuracy of Hal’s detecting), then our list of suspects drops to: **BS PI, Rapier42, OK11/ Blaster Master, ShadowFacts, Total Lost, (Darth).** and we’ll be looking for 5 or maybe 4 out of only 7. If we decide we don’t believe **Zsofia** , then we have 1 more suspect for that group. If we decide we don’t believe **Hal** , we also don’t believe in \*\*Pleo \*\*and probably not in **Hero** , because Hal has been quite specific about their roles - it would be a very bold guess for scum. (NB: \*\*Hero \*\*thinks that his not claiming while under pressure makes it fairly obvious he’s vanilla.). A fake-claiming scum could easily lie about 1 role, but probably not 2. So it would be really cool if we can put some faith in **Hal** , because that would shrink our suspect pool. Unfortunately, if we’re at LyLo, we can’t put him to the acid test. One way of testing it would be to see if \*\*Pleo \*\*dies toNight, and what result that gets us. If he came up town power role, we’d gain two confirmed townies. But that doesn’t get us past the question of what to do toDay. It looks like Total Lost, but I’m not particularly feeling it. OK11, if you feel you believe Hal (and thus Pleo and Hero) you can cross out your Scenarios 1, 3, 6 &7). Does that affect your vote? Other than that, the accusation of non-descript posting applies to a lot of people. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1522 "2008-12-03T14:12:05Z")
> [@amrussell](#): > > So it would be really cool if we can put some faith in **Hal** , because that would shrink our suspect pool. Unfortunately, if we’re at LyLo, we can’t put him to the acid test. One way of testing it would be to see if \*\*Pleo \*\*dies toNight, and what result that gets us. If he came up town power role, we’d gain two confirmed townies. But that doesn’t get us past the question of what to do toDay. I had a brain spurt this morning, and want to get it posted to see what people think. I suspect it will be a controversial gambit, so don’t JSex me up, please. 😃 Here it is: I think we might want to ban \*\*Pleonast \*\*anyway. But’s that’s crazy! you say. I’m not sure it is, from an informational perspective. If we ask \*\*Hal \*\*to reveal **Pleo’s** exact role and then ban him, we’ll get 2 confirmations out of it in either case. If \*\*Pleo \*\*comes up scum, then we know that \*\*Hal \*\*is scum and we bag 2 of them for the price of one. Then we’re really back in it. If \*\*Pleo \*\*comes up with the role that \*\*Hal \*\*revealed, then that confirms both \*\*Hal \*\*and \*\*Hero \*\*as Town, and shrinks the scum pool significantly. The obvious objection to this is that we might be at Lylo, and such a lynch could cost us the game. My response to that is: 1. We don’t know we’re at Lylo; 2. if we are at Lylo, that’s true of every lynch at this point; and 3. that attitude forces us to accept \*all \*claims and effectively paralyzes us. If we’re at Lylo, lynching \*\*Total Lost \*\*or anyone else has 2 results: 1. game over; or 2. we’re back at Lylo tomorrow. I suggest we might want to take the chance to get back in the game. Anyone see a flaw in my logic? ---
**Author:** ![ok11](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/8baadc/32.png) [@ok11](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ok11)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1523 "2008-12-03T14:49:55Z")
> [@ShadowFacts](#): > > Anyone see a flaw in my logic? Let’s say we lynch **Pleonast** and he comes up as a power role. Now we’ve banned a power role for no reason, and lost whatever ability he had (although he might not have any abilities like Celebrity). Can we now really trust **Hal**? I think the answer is pretty much, but not certainly. First, there’s a (slim) possibility that scum have an investigative role, so **Hal** could have found out about the role that way. It’s very unlikely, though. Second, scum could have a watcher/tracker type role, so they might know that **Pleonast** has a night action. If scum have that type of role it might also explain why scum never targeted **amrussell** (they found out he was protected). I know that both of those cases are fairly unlikely, so let’s just say **Pleonast** ’s ban confirms **Hal**. That’s great, except at Night the scum will probably kill **Hal** , and now we’ve only got one person left whom **Hal** confirmed. If we’re really not at LYLO, wouldn’t it be better to wait and either get an additional investigation from **Hal** , or let the scum confirm him via Night kill? ---
**Author:** ![ok11](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/8baadc/32.png) [@ok11](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ok11)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1524 "2008-12-03T15:18:40Z")
> [@amrussell](#): > > OK11, if you feel you believe Hal (and thus Pleo and Hero) you can cross out your Scenarios 1, 3, 6 &7). Does that affect your vote? Other than that, the accusation of non-descript posting applies to a lot of people. If I believe **Hal** ’s claim, then from my POV there are only 6 unconfirmed players left (I’m leaving out **Darth** because there’s pretty much nothing to go on). I’m not going to risk lynching **Zsofia** toDay, because it’s too dangerous to lose a doctor. Also, keeping her alive makes it likely that **amrussell** – our only 100% confirmed player – will not be Night killed (even if she’s scum). So now I’ve only got a list of 5 people: **ShadowFacts, Total Lost, Blaster Master, Rapier42** , and \*\* Boozahol Squid, P. I.\*\*. If there are really 5 scum, then my chances of picking the right person are pretty good, even if **Zsofia** is scum. That being said, I do feel kind of bad about banning **Total Lost**. If real life circumstances are preventing her from participating more, then there’s nothing she can do. And she did bring up some good arguments (but mainly against **Hero** , who I think is likely to be town). I also don’t like that my case is almost entirely based on vote patterns, which makes it hard for **Total Lost** to defend herself. On the other hand, people keep saying that scum are just sitting back and laughing at us. And if scum aren’t pushing our top vote-getters, and they’re not casting throwaway votes, then where are they? I’m going to think more about this, and reexamine my scenarios in light of **Hal** ’s and **Zsofia** ’s claims, but unfortunately it’s so late in the Day that I’m reluctant to move my vote. Of course if **Pleonast** comes back and says he’s not a power role, I’ll gladly move my vote to **Hal**. Somehow that doesn’t seem likely, though. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1525 "2008-12-03T15:27:36Z")
> [@ok11](#): > > Let’s say we lynch **Pleonast** and he comes up as a power role. Now we’ve banned a power role for no reason, and lost whatever ability he had (although he might not have any abilities like Celebrity). Can we now really trust **Hal**? I think the answer is pretty much, but not certainly. First, there’s a (slim) possibility that scum have an investigative role, so **Hal** could have found out about the role that way. It’s very unlikely, though. Second, scum could have a watcher/tracker type role, so they might know that **Pleonast** has a night action. If scum have that type of role it might also explain why scum never targeted **amrussell** (they found out he was protected). I know that both of those cases are fairly unlikely, so let’s just say **Pleonast** ’s ban confirms **Hal**. That’s great, except at Night the scum will probably kill **Hal** , and now we’ve only got one person left whom **Hal** confirmed. If we’re really not at LYLO, wouldn’t it be better to wait and either get an additional investigation from **Hal** , or let the scum confirm him via Night kill? First off, thanks for posting that review of **Total Lost**. I actually haven’t had a chance to review it because of my morning inspiration, but I will after posting this. I think your objections about \*\*Pleo’s \*\*death not confirming **Hal** are so incredibly remote that they do nothing to outweigh the benefits of the info gained. I think your point of the scum killing **Hal** is a good one, though. Given how the kills have been going, if **Hal** really is telling the truth, he’s likely to be hit. I’ll have to think about that a bit. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1526 "2008-12-03T15:38:14Z")
**PLAYER LIST** Nanook of the North Shore Troll KILLED NIGHT TWO Kat Vanilla Town KILLED NIGHT FOUR NaturalBlondChap Guest LYNCHED DAY ONE One And Only Wanderers Doctor LYNCHED DAY FOUR pedescribe Charter Member KILLED NIGHT TWO **ok11** **amrussell** Charter Member **Boozahol Squid, P.I** peekercpa Watcher KILLED NIGHT ONE **Hal Briston** Backup Admin **Rapier42** **ShadowFacts** **Blaster Master** Oredigger77 Charter Member KILLED NIGHT THREE Zeriel Vanilla Town LYNCHED DAY THREE **Zsofia** Doctor **Pleonast** Power Role Santo Rugger Doctor KILLED NIGHT THREE JSexton Vanilla Town LYNCHED DAY TWO **Hero From Sector 7G** Vanilla Town DiggitCamara Admin KILLED NIGHT ONE Fretful Porpentine Celebrity KILLED NIGHT FOUR **Total Lost** **Darth Sensitive** Colors: Unknown, Town, Scum, 3rd Side, Claimed Town ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Wow, a lot happened. People jumped on me, but it looks like **Hal** had my back. Since he called me a “power role”, I’m willing to accept his claim. From my notes, it looks like me have 5 scum out 6 players: **ok** , **Squid** , **Rapier** , **Shadow** , **BlaM** , **Total**. If **Darth** is actual scum, it’s already game over. He’s at worst a third party and we can’t afford to lynch him now. Oh, **unban Hero** **ban Total Lost** Back to where I was. In light of my upcoming Night death, my opinions about the remaining unconfirmed players, in order of scumminess: **Total** –Definitely scum. **Shadow** –Definitely scum. He wants to off me because he guesses what my role is. Lynch him next. **ok** –Likely scum. I can’t put my finger on it exactly, but someone needs to look over ok’s posting and votes. **Squid** –Likely scum. He’s been playing very unlike the typical Squid. He’s much more aggressive usually. I think he’s holding back because he’s scum. Very lurky for Squid. **BlaM** –Likely scum. He’s an excellent player and is still alive. He’s posted some useful insight, but has refrained from going after other players. Very lurky for BlaM. I think the Scum’s excellent play this game can be credited here. **Rapier** –Maybe scum. His play has been bothering me, but that probably means he’s Town. 🙂 To potential Night protectors, don’t bother to protect me. Protect **amrussell** and **Hal** , they are more valuable to the Town. **Hal** , a confirmed Townie is more valuable than a known Scum. And sorry for not being on more, but I’m too busy. ---
**Author:** ![Total\_Lost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e56c9b/32.png) [@Total\_Lost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Total_Lost)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1527 "2008-12-03T15:40:17Z")
I don’t have time to go back right now and read everything again. but if anyone have a question for me - I’ll be around for the next couple of hours. I could make a post explaining my votes - but I’m not sure that will change anything right now. ---
**Author:** ![Darth\_Sensitive](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/58956e/32.png) [@Darth\_Sensitive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darth_Sensitive)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1528 "2008-12-03T16:06:37Z")
This is disconcerting. If the scum think we are at LyLo, ballsy enough scum will go for the fake claim, which forces our hand. I am not trusting Hal farther than I can throw him right now. :::drops back to pass, and lets his receivers tear down field::: _BUT_ we aren’t at a point where we can lynch him to see if his list is clear unless we as a whole think he’s scum. To me, that doesn’t seem unlikely. We are running at the point where we don’t have to much to lose though, and I am wanting to go for broke. I say that we vote our good buddy **Pleonast** - and that **Hal** lets us know the role he found ASAP. If **Pleo** can claim after **Hal** , but will still be lynched unless they disagree on his role, in which case we lynch the ‘detective’. We don’t need power roles right now so much as we need more information. If **pleo** is scum ==\> **hal** is too. Any vig we have takes out the sheepster. Else we lynch him tomorrow. If **pleo** doesn’t turn up scum, we have a doctor to get at least one more investigation out of the detective, provided that the game doesn’t end before Tomorrow. :::lofts a hail mary into the endzone as time expires, hoping to send the game into overtime::: EXPLANATION: There’s a football metaphor here. If game with 11 men on a side, pointy ball, etc. A hail mary is a desperation play where all the people allowed to catch a pass go to the endzone together and the quarterback throws up a prayer, hoping his team catches it somehow. It is done from a long ways out when down. We are about 60 yards out and down 7. If we can force overtime, the field is shorter since we know more, but we’re probably still playing catchup. SIDE NOTE: It is 10:06 AM, and OU still sucks! ---
**Author:** ![Darth\_Sensitive](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/58956e/32.png) [@Darth\_Sensitive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darth_Sensitive)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1529 "2008-12-03T16:08:17Z")
How the heck did I forget my votes? :smack: **Unban Hero Ban Pleonast** ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1530 "2008-12-03T16:11:25Z")
I don’t know about you guys, but the more certain the **Total Lost** banning becomes, the worse it looks. 7 out of 12 are now voting for her, not including our one confirmed Townie. Looks to me like there are several scum at least who are happy with that result. I took a look at **ok11’s** case against her and I don’t see much there. I think we’re getting screwed here, people. Again. ---
**Author:** ![Total\_Lost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e56c9b/32.png) [@Total\_Lost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Total_Lost)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1531 "2008-12-03T16:17:34Z")
> [@ShadowFacts](#): > > I think we’re getting screwed here, people. Again. This will not come as a surprise - but I think so too. My problem is that I’m all vanilla - and that means if we are not a LyLo - then it might be better to lynch me then a power role. I don’t mind making a full claim - if anyone thinks this would be a good thing. ---
**Author:** ![Darth\_Sensitive](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/58956e/32.png) [@Darth\_Sensitive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darth_Sensitive)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1532 "2008-12-03T16:22:08Z")
Also - adding on to above. If **pleo** claims before **hal** , we lynch em both. ---
**Author:** ![Hal\_Briston](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a9a28c/32.png) [@Hal\_Briston](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hal_Briston)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1533 "2008-12-03T16:45:08Z")
> [@ShadowFacts](#): > > 7 out of 12 are now voting for her, not including our one confirmed Townie. Looks to me like there are several scum at least who are happy with that result. I saw that as well, and I’m trying to maintain an optimistic attitude that scum are busing one of their own. And to put it out there ahead of time, I’ll say that **Pleo** is a “downscow”. Meaningless now, but it’ll make sense when the time is right. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1534 "2008-12-03T17:04:23Z")
I agree that desparate times call for ludicrous measures. If scum are happy for us to lynch TL, then we’re going to lose. In fact, ultimately we’re all going to have to vote for the same candidate just to stop them. Also, and on preview, if Hal and Pleonast are both scum, having Hal say “Pleo’s power is X” and then having Pleo say, “Yes, Hal, that’s right. My power is X. Guess we’re both confirmed then”, won’t give me a whole lot of comfort. I’m not completelly happy with lynching Pleo though. It’s possible for Hal to be truthful and for their still to be 4 scum on **Total Lost**. This, from ok11, gives all the reasons not to vote for her (my bolding): > [@ok11](#): > > That being said, I do feel kind of bad about banning Total Lost. If real life circumstances are preventing her from participating more, then there’s nothing she can do. \*\*And she did bring up some good arguments \*\*(but mainly against Hero, who I think is likely to be town). I also don’t like that my case is almost entirely based on vote patterns, which makes it hard for Total Lost to defend herself. If the theory is that scum haven’t been committing themselves, then there are better candidates. ---
**Author:** ![Darth\_Sensitive](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/58956e/32.png) [@Darth\_Sensitive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darth_Sensitive)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1535 "2008-12-03T17:10:02Z")
Well, my idea was to lynch **pleo** even if they agreed ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1536 "2008-12-03T17:51:29Z")
Here’s another crazy suggestion: **if you are a confirmable power role, now is the time to claim**. I think there should be at least one out there, and the more we can cut down the scum pool, the better off we’ll be. In the meantime, in the interests of confirming someone, and with a due sense of hestiation and foreboding: **unvote Rapier42** **vote Pleo** He’s said himself he’s less valuable than a detective who can confirm town. ---
**Author:** ![ok11](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/8baadc/32.png) [@ok11](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ok11)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1537 "2008-12-03T18:08:55Z")
I just wasted a whole lot of time with practically nothing to show for it. I looked at different scenarios in light of **Hal** ’s claim. If I believe **Hal** here is my list of 6 unknowns: **Zsofia, ShadowFacts, Total Lost, Blaster Master, Rapier42** , and **Boozahol Squid, P. I.**. I applied my assumptions to see what happens. I’ll tell you my conclusion upfront, so you can skip the rest of my post if you’d like. My conclusion is that one (or more) of the following is correct: (1) my assumptions are wrong (2) we have fewer than 5 scum (3) we can’t trust **Hal** , or at least his readings. I’m going to go with (2), and change my vote accordingly. Here are the relevant assumptions from post [1435](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=10517406&postcount=1435) 1. [Day 1, vote count 6](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=10414363&postcount=536): All 3 of **Rapier42** , **ShadowFacts** , and **Total Lost** are unlikely to be scum 2. [Day 2, vote count 1](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=10430923&postcount=768): All 3 of **Boozahol Squid, P.I** , **Zsofia** , and **Rapier42** are unlikely to be scum 3. [Day 4, vote count 2](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=10492526&postcount=1348): Unlikely that both **Blaster Master** and **Zsofia** are scum 4. [Day 4, final vote count](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=10494887&postcount=1372): Unlikely that both **Total Lost** and **ShadowFacts** are scum Also from the same post: [Day 3, vote count 1](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=10456527&postcount=1114): it’s unlikely that both **ShadowFacts** and **Zsofia** are scum, even if Hal is town (a) Let’s use assumptions 1 and 2, and say that **Rapier42** is town. Then our 5 scum are **Zsofia, ShadowFacts, Total Lost, Blaster Master** , and **Boozahol Squid, P. I.**. Are there any contradictions among the remaining players? Yes, it’s unlikely that both (1) **Blaster Master** and **Zsofia** (2) **Zsofia** and **ShadowFacts** and (3) **Total Lost** and **ShadowFacts** are scum. So I don’t think that’s the right list of scum. (b) Let’s use assumptions 1 and 4, and say that **ShadowFacts** is town. Then our 5 scum are **Zsofia, Total Lost, Blaster Master, Rapier42** , and **Boozahol Squid, P. I.**. Are there any contradictions among the remaining players? Yes, it’s unlikely that (1) both **Blaster Master** and **Zsofia** and (2) all 3 of **Zsofia, Rapier42** , and **Boozahol Squid, P. I.** are scum. So I don’t think that’s the right list of scum. However, if you say that **Zsofia** is also town, it works. (c) Let’s use assumption 1, and say that **Total Lost** is town. Then our 5 scum are **Zsofia, ShadowFacts, Blaster Master, Rapier42** , and **Boozahol Squid, P. I.**. Are there any contradictions among the remaining players? Yes, it’s unlikely that (1) both **Blaster Master** and **Zsofia** (2) both **Zsofia** and **ShadowFacts** (3) all 3 of **Zsofia, Rapier42** , and **Boozahol Squid, P. I.** are scum. So I don’t think that’s the right list of scum. However, if you say that **Zsofia** is also town, it works. (d) Let’s use assumption 2, and say that **Boozahol Squid, P. I.** is town. Then our 5 scum are **Zsofia, ShadowFacts, Total Lost, Blaster Master, Rapier42**. Are there any contradictions among the remaining players? Yes, it’s unlikely that both (1) **Blaster Master** and **Zsofia** (2) **Zsofia** and **ShadowFacts** and (3) **Total Lost** and **ShadowFacts** are scum. It’s also unlikely that all 3 of **Rapier42** , **ShadowFacts** , and **Total Lost** are scum. So I don’t think that’s the right list of scum. (e) Let’s use assumption 2, and say that **Zsofia** is town. Then our 5 scum are **ShadowFacts, Total Lost, Blaster Master, Rapier42** , and **Boozahol Squid, P. I.**. Are there any contradictions among the remaining players? Yes, it’s unlikely that (1) both **Total Lost** and **ShadowFacts** and (3) all 3 of **Rapier42** , **ShadowFacts** , and **Total Lost** are scum. So I don’t think that’s the right list of scum. However, if either **ShadowFacts** or **Total Lost** is town, the problem is solved. (f) ) Let’s use assumptions 3 and 4, and say that **Blaster Master** is town. Then our 5 scum are **Zsofia, ShadowFacts, Total Lost, Rapier42** , and **Boozahol Squid, P. I.**. Are there any contradictions among the remaining players? Yes, it’s unlikely that (1) both **Total Lost** and **ShadowFacts** (2) both **Zsofia** and **ShadowFacts** (3) all 3 of **Zsofia, Rapier42** , and **Boozahol Squid, P. I.** and (4) all 3 of **Rapier42** , **ShadowFacts** , and **Total Lost** are scum. So I don’t think that’s the right list of scum. So if I believe **Hal** there are only 3 ways I can make my theory work. The following four would have to be scum: 1. **Total Lost, Blaster Master, Rapier42** , and **Boozahol Squid, P. I**. 2. **ShadowFacts, Blaster Master, Rapier42** , and **Boozahol Squid, P. I**. 3. **Blaster Master, Rapier42, Boozahol Squid, P. I.** and either **ShadowFact** s or **Total Lost** Notice that all 3 have 3 players in common: **Blaster Master, Rapier42, Boozahol Squid, P. I.**. I don’t have a strong preference among the 3 of them, but since **Rapier42** already had votes on him toDay, that’s whom I’m going to pick **unvote Total Lost vote Rapier42** I’ll go back and re-read posts by **Rapier42** , and if I don’t find anything, I’ll unvote him. ---
**Author:** ![Total\_Lost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e56c9b/32.png) [@Total\_Lost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Total_Lost)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1538 "2008-12-03T18:11:05Z")
> [@Pleonast](#): > > In light of my upcoming Night death, my opinions about the remaining unconfirmed players, in order of scumminess: > **Total** –Definitely scum. I don’t see how you “know” this - you didn’t even think about the fact that the people I didn’t lynch where all town. With all that’s going on right now I’ll \*\* BAN PLEONAST \*\* ---
**Author:** ![ok11](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/8baadc/32.png) [@ok11](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ok11)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1539 "2008-12-03T18:22:16Z")
> [@ok11](#): > > So if I believe **Hal** there are only 3 ways I can make my theory work. The following four would have to be scum: > > 1. **Total Lost, Blaster Master, Rapier42** , and **Boozahol Squid, P. I**. > 2. **ShadowFacts, Blaster Master, Rapier42** , and **Boozahol Squid, P. I**. > 3. **Blaster Master, Rapier42, Boozahol Squid, P. I.** and either **ShadowFact** s or **Total Lost** I just realized that 3 is the same as (1) and (2) :smack: But I arrived at them using different premises, so at least that tells me I’m being consistent in applying my assumptions. I strongly disagree with banning **Pleonast** for the reasons I wrote to **ShadowFacts**. Those reasons were based on **Pleonast** turning up town. If he’s scum, I’m having a hard time understanding why **Hal** would stick his neck out to protect him, instead of just keeping quiet. Scum are probably so close to a win that they can afford to sacrifice one of their own. ---
**Author:** ![Zsofia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/7bcc69/32.png) [@Zsofia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zsofia)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1540 "2008-12-03T18:32:07Z")
I’m surprised at everybody voting for Pleo - if we’re at LYLO, is that at all smart? It seems like kind of a “live fast, die young” gambit - why hit somebody who at least one person is claiming as town, when there are other candidates that no claim protects. Sure, Hal may well be lying - but we’re probably in a really precarious position now, so planning long-term just doesn’t seem like the greatest solution to me. I’d be happy to consider a different candidate than I’m currently voting on, but I just don’t think we should lynch a claimed town power role, especially since we think we have a Vig out there. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198.md?page=76) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198.md?page=78)