# Sdmb mafia **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [October 30, 2008, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198 "2008-10-30T02:29:55Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 78
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1541 "2008-12-03T18:35:39Z")
I’ll vote for anyone we can get consensus on. In fact, if it helps you move your vote from TL: **unvote Pleo** [COLOR=“Blue”] **vote Rapier42** [/COLO ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1542 "2008-12-03T18:35:53Z")
> [@Total\_Lost](#): > > I didn’t mean to use RL as an motivation for my behavior (only as an explanation for the number of posts). I want to address this first, because this is a pretty important topic for me. I wasn’t intending to say that IRL was a motivation or an excuse. I consider any usage of IRL things to be meta-gamey. That is, if someone simply isn’t posting, it could be because they have other things that are going on, or it could be that they’re reading along and just not posting. If someone says they have IRL things interfering, I’m going to trust them because I consider it poor sportsmanship to use that as an excuse to cover up lurking, and I’d like to believe that everyone here is a good sport. That said, IRL obligations limit the amount of contribution and, in some cases, the timing of it, but it has little to no bearing on the quality of the contribution. My point was specifically that you had a similar quantity of contribution to others, but not the same level of quality, at least as I read it. I had no read on you and, in fact, when I was doing my analysis of the lower post players, I completely forgot about you. This, in my mind, is a bad thing. IMO, a slightly scummy read on someone is still probably more likely to be town than someone who is giving off no read at all. Scum want to blend in, coming off with a pro-town is preferable for them, but very difficult to pull off. So the best way is to do what they can to avoid suspicion. Specifically for vanilla townies, which I’d have to be inclined you’re likely to be if you are one, since you haven’t counterclaimed that I’ve seen yet, and I’d have a hard time believing there’s, as yet another power role out there, the last thing you want is to lay low. The whole purpose of vanilla townies are to put themselves on the line, act as fodder at night to protect the power roles, and be willing to put forth effort to catch scum during the Day. My assessment of your play has not been consistent with that. Your play seems to have been pretty conservative, which is why I don’t have a read on you. This means you’re likely either a power role or scum. At this point, I’m disinclined to believe you’re yet another power role, so I think it’s the latter. > [@](#): > > I have been voting for the person I see as most scummy. It was my impression that voting like that was pro-town. I have been giving reasons for my votes and I’m not really sure what you need to “hear from me”. Did I miss a question? Yes, you’ve been voting and providing reasons for your votes. But at the same time, so have all of the scum. I want to see people become involved, add to the relevant discussions, investigate people who they think have been operating a little under the radar. I haven’t seen any of this from you. It’s easy for scum to escape suspicion with lots of me-toos because, if it results in a scum lynch, they can twist it to get townie cred, and if it results in a town lynch, they can often twist out of it and blame the originator of the idea. So yeah, I want to hear from you. Agreeing with people is fine, but I want to see some analysis and reasoning behind why you agree with other people. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1543 "2008-12-03T18:36:43Z")
Balls **vote Rapier 42** ---
**Author:** ![Total\_Lost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e56c9b/32.png) [@Total\_Lost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Total_Lost)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1544 "2008-12-03T18:48:55Z")
> [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > Yes, you’ve been voting and providing reasons for your votes. But at the same time, so have all of the scum. I want to see people become involved, add to the relevant discussions, investigate people who they think have been operating a little under the radar. I haven’t seen any of this from you. It’s easy for scum to escape suspicion with lots of me-toos because, if it results in a scum lynch, they can twist it to get townie cred, and if it results in a town lynch, they can often twist out of it and blame the originator of the idea. > > So yeah, I want to hear from you. Agreeing with people is fine, but I want to see some analysis and reasoning behind why you agree with other people. I must be more forgettable then I thought. I did try to show why I believe **Hero** to be scum and I did try to argue that I saw the JSEXTON-lynch to be a bad move. I tried to get people off the Zeriel-lynch because I saw it as a “if JSexton was Town then Zeriel must be scum”-agrument that I didn’t believe in. I know I could have been more active - and I’m sorry for that - but so could a lot of others. You don’t have to think power role with me: I’m vanilla and if we are not at the LyLo getting me lynch right now might be a good thing. The potential-lynch of me has taken a lot of time and energy toDay. However if we are at a LyLo - then we really got a problem… ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1545 "2008-12-03T18:54:39Z")
**Og (or Og-minion), can we get an official vote count, please?** ---
**Author:** ![MHaye](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/bbe5ce/32.png) [@MHaye](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MHaye)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1546 "2008-12-03T19:03:06Z")
At the top of the 104[sup]th[/sup] hour of Day 5.Total Lost : 6 (Hero from Sector 7G, Zsofia, Blaster Master, Hal Briston, Boozahol Squid P.I., Pleonast) Pleonast : 3 (ShadowFacts, Darth Sensitive, Total Lost) Rapier42 : 2 (ok11, amrussell) Zsofia : 1 (Rapier42)_Thwaps ShadowFacts around the ear with a noodly appendage._ The **FSM** is an independent entity who is assisting **Og** in this great task as an equal, and is in no sense to be deemed a minion. ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1547 "2008-12-03T19:11:09Z")
> [@ok11](#): > > I just wasted a whole lot of time with practically nothing to show for it. I looked at different scenarios in light of **Hal** ’s claim. If I believe **Hal** here is my list of 6 unknowns: **Zsofia, ShadowFacts, Total Lost, Blaster Master, Rapier42** , and **Boozahol Squid, P. I.**. I applied my assumptions to see what happens. I’ll tell you my conclusion upfront, so you can skip the rest of my post if you’d like. My conclusion is that one (or more) of the following is correct: (1) my assumptions are wrong (2) we have fewer than 5 scum (3) we can’t trust **Hal** , or at least his readings. I’m going to go with (2), and change my vote accordingly. Your assumptions are inconsistent with the available information about the game setup. If you believe **Hal** and provisionally accept **Zsofia** ’s claim, there HAVE to be five scum. Why? Town had 3 masons, and 4 or 5 other power roles. Combine that with 2 PFKs, and scum having only 4 members is incredibly unbalanced in favor of town. I don’t have **JSexton** ’s formula memorized off the top of my head, but I’d guess that would be have town with at least 50% more points than scum. In order to balance that, scum would need some sort of incredible power which has never been used, or there’s more of them. There are two ways to settle this imbalance. Either way have more scum (which would have to be 5, since if it were 6, the game would be over) or at least some of the claimed roles are lying and still probably combined with more 5 scum unless ALL the currently untested roles are lying, which just seems to unbelievable to me. Either way, this means we probably are at LyLo, which means lynching for information is utterly useless. ---
**Author:** ![Total\_Lost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e56c9b/32.png) [@Total\_Lost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Total_Lost)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1548 "2008-12-03T19:20:13Z")
> [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > Your assumptions are inconsistent with the available information about the game setup. If you believe **Hal** and provisionally accept **Zsofia** ’s claim, there HAVE to be five scum. Why? Town had 3 masons, and 4 or 5 other power roles. Combine that with 2 PFKs, and scum having only 4 members is incredibly unbalanced in favor of town. I don’t have **JSexton** ’s formula memorized off the top of my head, but I’d guess that would be have town with at least 50% more points than scum. In order to balance that, scum would need some sort of incredible power which has never been used, or there’s more of them. > > There are two ways to settle this imbalance. Either way have more scum (which would have to be 5, since if it were 6, the game would be over) or at least some of the claimed roles are lying and still probably combined with more 5 scum unless ALL the currently untested roles are lying, which just seems to unbelievable to me. > > Either way, this means we probably are at LyLo, which means lynching for information is utterly useless. [http://psychopathgame.proboards106.com/index.cgi?board=temp&action=display&thread=85&page=2#6577](http://psychopathgame.proboards106.com/index.cgi?board=temp&action=display&thread=85&page=2#6577) But I’m not sure you can just JSexton on the masons in this game. Because they didn’t have a chance to talk and really didn’t work a “traditional” masons… ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1549 "2008-12-03T19:30:48Z")
> [@amrussell](#): > > I agree that desparate times call for ludicrous measures. If scum are happy for us to lynch TL, then we’re going to lose. In fact, ultimately we’re all going to have to vote for the same candidate just to stop them. Also, and on preview, if Hal and Pleonast are both scum, having Hal say “Pleo’s power is X” and then having Pleo say, “Yes, Hal, that’s right. My power is X. Guess we’re both confirmed then”, won’t give me a whole lot of comfort. > I’m not completelly happy with lynching Pleo though. It’s possible for Hal to be truthful and for their still to be 4 scum on **Total Lost**. This, from ok11, gives all the reasons not to vote for her (my bolding): > > If the theory is that scum haven’t been committing themselves, then there are better candidates. Huh? You’re looking only at the numbers and not looking closely enough at who is actually voting for **Total Lost**. > [@MHaye](#): > > At the top of the 104[sup]th[/sup] hour of Day 5.Total Lost : 6 (Hero from Sector 7G, Zsofia, Blaster Master, Hal Briston, Boozahol Squid P.I., Pleonast) > Pleonast : 3 (ShadowFacts, Darth Sensitive, Total Lost) > Rapier42 : 2 (ok11, amrussell) > Zsofia : 1 (Rapier42)_Thwaps ShadowFacts around the ear with a noodly appendage._ > > The **FSM** is an independent entity who is assisting **Og** in this great task as an equal, and is in no sense to be deemed a minion. According to the most recent vote count, **Hal** , **Pleonast** , and **Hero** are all voting for **Total Lost** along with our claimed doctor **Zsofia**. That means, if we believe all those claims, there’s at most two scum on that wagon, and I sure as hell know I’m not scum either. Unless all three of **Hal** , **Pleonast** , and **Hero** are scum, which is what a lying **Hal** would have to mean that saying scum are content to lynch **Total Lost** is just not accurate. I think what is MOST telling is the suggestion to lynch **Pleonast** to confirm **Hal** and **Hero**. First, how the hell does it make sense to lynch someone who is probably town at this point when we’re likely in LyLo? And look at who’s on it, **Shadow** , who was after **Hero** and **Hal** for so long with very shakey evidence, **Darth Sensitive** , who we know absolutely nothing about, and **Total Lost** , who should admit if she’s town that she’s worth less than a likely power role, and if not, she’s desperately trying to get a townie lynched to save her own neck. This seems pretty clear to me that **Total Lost** is being pushed by town, and the scum are trying to find a compelling reason to get a townie lynched. This also means that **ShadowFacts** is probably scum right along with her. ---
**Author:** ![ok11](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/8baadc/32.png) [@ok11](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ok11)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1550 "2008-12-03T19:38:15Z")
> [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > Your assumptions are inconsistent with the available information about the game setup. If you believe **Hal** and provisionally accept **Zsofia** ’s claim, there HAVE to be five scum. Why? Town had 3 masons, and 4 or 5 other power roles. Combine that with 2 PFKs, and scum having only 4 members is incredibly unbalanced in favor of town. I don’t have **JSexton** ’s formula memorized off the top of my head, but I’d guess that would be have town with at least 50% more points than scum. In order to balance that, scum would need some sort of incredible power which has never been used, or there’s more of them. You make a good point, but since I’m not completely sold on the SK/Vig idea, it still makes sense to me that the second kill is by scum. SK is a third party, right? Og’s opening post says that there are 2 individuals who are third parties, and we’ve eliminated 2 PFKs already. Ergo, no SK. I also don’t think there’s a Vig, because then the Vig went after claimed power roles on Night 1 and 3. I think on Night 3 when we already lost 6 (or 7?) town players, a Vig wouldn’t risk being wrong about a power role. There were plenty of other suitable targets. So I think the second kill is a balancing element. Perhaps it’s a “win-more bonus” power (like the one **Boozahol Squid, P.I.** thought **Santo Rugger** had). It could be based on town lynching town, or on role claims, or who knows what else. It’s also possible that scum have a silencing power which they used on Day 4, or a Sock Puppet. So I think there’s potentially enough out there to balance out both an extra detective and a doctor. Moving on…I’m sorry but I haven’t had time to look at **Rapier42** yet. But in the meantime, I have a question for **Total Lost**. What do you think about the claims by **Zsofia** and **Hal**? (Sorry if you’ve answered this already). **Total Lost** and **Zsofia** , the two of you, as well as several other players, are in the same position with respect to **Hal** ’s claim as I am. IOW, if you believe him then your pool of unconfirmed (excluding **Darth** ) is also 6 people. Do my assumptions seem reasonable to you? If you substitute me for yourself in my analysis, what kind of conclusions can you draw? ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1551 "2008-12-03T19:46:47Z")
> [@Total\_Lost](#): > > [http://psychopathgame.proboards106.com/index.cgi?board=temp&action=display&thread=85&page=2#6577](http://psychopathgame.proboards106.com/index.cgi?board=temp&action=display&thread=85&page=2#6577) > > But I’m not sure you can just JSexton on the masons in this game. Because they didn’t have a chance to talk and really didn’t work a “traditional” masons… FOA, thanks for the lynch. Second, I’ll even concede that the masons aren’t worth what he scores a 3-man masonry at, so I’ll say 2 instead of 2.5. So let’s add up the current totals and be conservative to see how they work out. Paranoid Doctor - I’ll say 2.5 instead of 3 Cop - 4 Back-up Cop - 2.5 Watcher - 2 3-man masonry - 6 Unknown power role - 1.5 since I’m guessing compulsory Vig 10 Vanilla Townies - 10 Day Start - 1 I am not counting the PFKs for points for or against because neither had a killing ability. So, being conservative, the town has 29.5 points. With 4 scum, it would take a Godfather, investigator, roleblocker, and some sort of bonus kill or some similar combination to get it close to be balanced. If any of those is unlikely, this scenario is unlikely and a bonus kill is not likely for reasons I’ve laid out earlier. Role blocker I might believe, thanks to what happened to **amrussell**. Now let’s try again with 1 more scum. The town now has 28.5 points. With a Godfather, Roleblocker, and 3 vanilla scum, the scum are at 27 points. That seems pretty close to being balanced to me. So, if you still think there’s only 4 scum, that means that it’s incredibly likely that either **Hal** , **Pleo** , and **Hero** are all lying, **Zsofia** is lying, or all four are. Hell, even if **Zsofia** were lying, it would still necessitate 5 scum to be any bit close to reasonably balanced. ---
**Author:** ![ok11](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/8baadc/32.png) [@ok11](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ok11)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1552 "2008-12-03T19:47:53Z")
> [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > This seems pretty clear to me that **Total Lost** is being pushed by town, and the scum are trying to find a compelling reason to get a townie lynched. This also means that **ShadowFacts** is probably scum right along with her. So you disagree that: > [@ok11](#): > > [Day 4, final vote count](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=10494887&postcount=1372): Unlikely that both **Total Lost** and **ShadowFacts** are scum If you think that both of them are scum then several of my scenarios can now work with 5 scum. What do you think about my other assumptions? Now that several of my scenarios have 5 scum, what do you think of them? ---
**Author:** ![ok11](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/8baadc/32.png) [@ok11](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ok11)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1553 "2008-12-03T19:56:54Z")
EBWOP: I haven’t gone back to check, so “several” might not be the right word. Substitute “at least 1” for “several”. ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1554 "2008-12-03T19:57:07Z")
> [@ok11](#): > > You make a good point, but since I’m not completely sold on the SK/Vig idea, it still makes sense to me that the second kill is by scum. SK is a third party, right? Og’s opening post says that there are 2 individuals who are third parties, and we’ve eliminated 2 PFKs already. Ergo, no SK. I also don’t think there’s a Vig, because then the Vig went after claimed power roles on Night 1 and 3. I think on Night 3 when we already lost 6 (or 7?) town players, a Vig wouldn’t risk being wrong about a power role. There were plenty of other suitable targets. > > So I think the second kill is a balancing element. Perhaps it’s a “win-more bonus” power (like the one **Boozahol Squid, P.I.** thought **Santo Rugger** had). It could be based on town lynching town, or on role claims, or who knows what else. It’s also possible that scum have a silencing power which they used on Day 4, or a Sock Puppet. So I think there’s potentially enough out there to balance out both an extra detective and a doctor. You’re completely discounting the possibility of a Compulsory Vig, which is what I’ve been proposing the whole time. He HAS to kill, and just because someone claims, doesn’t mean they’re not an okay target. Maybe he didn’t like the claim, and found that person most suspicious on Day One while having little or no read on anyone else. Don’t forget that on Day Three, sure **Santo** had claimed, but it was completely unconfirmable, and he’d pulled the whole “the Day will last at least 12 more hours” thing, and was put under some pressure that Day. It’s not surprising a compulsory Vig might target him. If you’re going to say the scum have an extra kill, you then have to explain why they would have killed **Nanook** when it was pretty clear he was probably going to be lynched the next Day. You’d also have to explain why the scum would choose to kill both **Fretful** and **Kat** , when Kat was acting as cover for them. It just doesn’t add up. And I hate to do this, but since I can figure it out, I’m sure the scum can too. If **Hal** and **Pleo** are both telling the truth, and **Pleo** is a power role, then doesn’t it make sense that, since he’s almost certainly not a doctor, or cop, or watcher, and that there’s reason to believe there’s a Vig out there, he might be the Vig? Also, I know you wrote this before my numbers post, but please read this in the context of that. ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1555 "2008-12-03T20:04:24Z")
> [@ok11](#): > > So you disagree that: > > If you think that both of them are scum then several of my scenarios can now work with 5 scum. What do you think about my other assumptions? Now that several of my scenarios have 5 scum, what do you think of them? I said before, I think using the Day 4 vote count at all is pretty useless. First, about half the town didn’t even vote, so we have no idea at what ratio the scum did or did not vote. Second, what reason is there to say they’re unlikely to be scum together, other than that it was essentially a snapshot from a shortened Day. All scum knew was that there was a pile forming on **OaOW** and that he wasn’t scum. What if **OaOW** was town. **Shadow** himself pretty much had to vote for **Hero** in order to stay consistent. As for **Total Lost** , I’d have to go back and see the context. Either way, vote distribution is important, but it’s just as important to keep taking into account that scum have other motivation, and there was motivation for avoiding the **OaOW** lynch wagon. ---
**Author:** ![Total\_Lost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e56c9b/32.png) [@Total\_Lost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Total_Lost)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1556 "2008-12-03T20:09:00Z")
> [@ok11](#): > > **Total Lost** and **Zsofia** , the two of you, as well as several other players, are in the same position with respect to **Hal** ’s claim as I am. IOW, if you believe him then your pool of unconfirmed (excluding **Darth** ) is also 6 people. Do my assumptions seem reasonable to you? If you substitute me for yourself in my analysis, what kind of conclusions can you draw? I just don’t know right now. I see **Hal** as Town and have seen him as Town for a long time. But I did find **Pleonast** and **Hero** as scummy - so that claim just really made me confused. I thought that **Hal** might be an insane cop - but no one else seems to thinks so. ---
**Author:** ![ok11](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/8baadc/32.png) [@ok11](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ok11)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1557 "2008-12-03T20:13:54Z")
**Blaster Master** , I see what you’re saying. There goes my whole theory. It sucks that after putting so much work into the assumptions and scenarios they didn’t amount to anything. But it would be silly to keep clinging onto them, so **Unvote Rapier42** I’m not going to vote for anyone right now, because I’ve got a lot of thinking to do and not enough time to do it. Hopefully the Day lasts long enough for me to reread a little and pick someone else. ---
**Author:** ![Hero\_From\_Sector\_7G](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/65b543/32.png) [@Hero\_From\_Sector\_7G](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hero_From_Sector_7G)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1558 "2008-12-03T20:36:41Z")
> [@Blaster Master](#): > > Unless all three of Hal, Pleonast, and Hero are scum, which is what a lying Hal would have to mean that saying scum are content to lynch Total Lost is just not accurate. I’m a little skeptical of **Hal** and not entirely comfortable with the claim. From the scum perspective, guessing that I was vanilla wasn’t a huge leap: I was leading all day, and have been taking heat all game, and I didn’t claim anything. **Hal** claimed after **Pleo** was taking heat, and than **Pleo** confirmed him. > [@](#): > > I think what is MOST telling is the suggestion to lynch Pleonast to confirm Hal and Hero. First, how the hell does it make sense to lynch someone who is probably town at this point when we’re likely in LyLo? And look at who’s on it, Shadow, who was after Hero and Hal for so long with very shakey evidence, Darth Sensitive, who we know absolutely nothing about, and Total Lost, who should admit if she’s town that she’s worth less than a likely power role, and if not, she’s desperately trying to get a townie lynched to save her own neck. I see where they are coming from. We have a choice, either take **Hal** at his word and trust his claims, or test him. If he is telling the truth, we want to keep him alive, and therefor **Pleo** is the only way to test our investigator without killing the investigator. You could lynch me, but like I said earlier, my vanilla role would be a safe guess for scum. Finally, we have a confirmed PFK doctor, a claimed doctor, a confirmed Admin and a claimed “backup” admin. The flavor suggested two powers. Perhaps these two powers are scum, and another unified group. This explains why most of the night killings have been power roles. The “3rd” group might not know who the other members are, and target claimed roles to avoid hitting one of their own. I dunno. Maybe I’m way off base and am missing something obvious, but I don’t see why being skeptical of **Hal** is unhealthy right now. ---
**Author:** ![Rapier42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/90db22/32.png) [@Rapier42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rapier42)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1559 "2008-12-03T21:09:19Z")
> [@amrussell](#): > > Unvote Pleo > > Vote Rapier42 > > 1. We’re almost certainly at LyLo; you’re keeping your vote on a claim that you can’t disprove when there are other candidates out there. > 2. Your vote is based on a pattern of non-commital posting. Sauce for the goose is a two-edged sword for people who live in glass houses. Or in other words - this is an exact description of your posting throughout this game. In which case, it’s interesting that you think of it as a scum tell. _blink_ Either you didn’t read my post, or I failed to make myself clear. 1. I’m keeping my vote on somebody I think is scum. I’ve already said I don’t believe her role-claim adds anything to her defense. 2. My vote for her was certainly not based on a “pattern of non-committal posting”, my vote was initally based on her posting a non-committal post in reaction to being called out for posting non-committally. Since then, she’s done other things that tweaked me, and done nothing to reassure me. And in any case, I disagree that I’ve been non-committal to the extend that she has. Confused, yes. But not non-committal. 😉 * * * Regarding the role-claims in general - I think Town is letting itself become distracted by these. They’re inevitable, at this point, I know, but my point is that if we’re at lylo (and Blam has me convinced, anyway), none of them are any damned good. I believe we need to focus our voting on the highest chance of hitting scum - when we do, we’ll have PLENTY of information to digest. We don’t need to lynch Pleo or anybody else for information now, and can’t afford to be wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Rapier42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/90db22/32.png) [@Rapier42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rapier42)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198/1560 "2008-12-03T21:14:26Z")
> [@Hero\_From\_Sector\_7G](#): > > We have a choice, either take **Hal** at his word and trust his claims, or test him. If he is telling the truth, we want to keep him alive, and therefor **Pleo** is the only way to test our investigator without killing the investigator. You could lynch me, but like I said earlier, my vanilla role would be a safe guess for scum. No, no testing. We don’t have any wiggle room for that right now. If we lynch a scum and get lucky on the kills tonight, we can talk about testing claims tomorrow. Trust Hal or don’t, now is not the time to take a flyer. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198.md?page=77) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-mafia/470198.md?page=79)