# SDMB NFL Pick 'em and Survival Leagues 2023 **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Tags:** football-nfl\ **Created:** [September 1, 2023, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-nfl-pick-em-and-survival-leagues-2023/989478 "2023-09-01T21:35:14Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Jegpeg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jegpeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jegpeg)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2023, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-nfl-pick-em-and-survival-leagues-2023/989478/23 "2023-10-21T18:52:40Z")
- Seattle thrashed the Gisnts in NY the cards lost to them at home - With both teams have lost to the Rams and Bengals, Seattle got very close to beating the Bengals - Both teams have one win against a decent team, but @ Detroit is a much tougher fixture than home to the Cowboys - In the remaining games Seattle have beaten the Panthers and the Cards have lost to the Commanders and 49ers while a lost tothe 49ers is expected the Panthers are not that much weaker than the commanders. - Seattle are at home Overall I think the spread is about right, yes the Cards can win but Seattle must be reasonably strong favorites. There again don’t trust me I thought the Jags would beat the Texans and the Commanders would beat the Bears, so my “Value” picks have not gone well this season. ---
**Author:** ![Jegpeg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jegpeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jegpeg)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2023, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-nfl-pick-em-and-survival-leagues-2023/989478/24 "2023-10-22T23:10:14Z")
Or the opposite. People who didn’t pick Seattle went 1-8 in survival this week! And it wasn’t as if they all went on one team Rams, Raiders, Bills and Commanders all had at least one pick. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2023, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-nfl-pick-em-and-survival-leagues-2023/989478/25 "2023-10-22T23:24:54Z")
I usually try to make some of the riskier picks that save good teams for later, but this year I’ve decided to play it pretty safe as a strategy and burn a lot of the good teams. So I’m strikeless so far which is great, but if I survive late into the season I’m going to have some tough picks. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2023, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-nfl-pick-em-and-survival-leagues-2023/989478/26 "2023-10-22T23:33:01Z")
The 1 player who survived who didn’t pick Seattle probably should’ve lost, Indy should’ve won that game. This leaves us down to 3 players with no strikes - myself, Jules Andre, and garygnu. ---
**Author:** ![Jegpeg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jegpeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jegpeg)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2023, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-nfl-pick-em-and-survival-leagues-2023/989478/27 "2023-10-22T23:41:29Z")
I tend to balance it out a bit, if a middling team is farily close in the spread to a strong team I will go with the middling team, but of course early in the season it is not clear who the strong and weak teams are. I gt away with picking the Giants in week 2 not knowing how bad they were but also picked the Ravens and 49ers early on (Though in week 1 the Ravens probably had less future value than they do now). Last week I went with the Bills because down to my last life I thought I would play it safe (and only just got away with it. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2023, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-nfl-pick-em-and-survival-leagues-2023/989478/28 "2023-10-24T22:56:33Z")
This is where it starts to hurt using a lot of good teams early. I’ve already used most of the big favorites this week. I think it’s similar with a lot of people on yahoo - usually there’s a clear favorite in terms of everyone’s picks, but this week the top picks are 21%, 21%, 17%, 11% of users spread out pretty wide because a lot of people probably already used up the top teams. I do have the Lions hosting the Raiders and the Chargers hosting the Bears to choose from. I’m not super confident about either of those games, though I like that both teams are at home and the visiting team has a significant amount of travel. I’m guessing the Lions are probably pissed about their beat down this week and may take it out on the raiders, so I’m leaning that way, but it’s tough. ---
**Author:** ![Jegpeg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jegpeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jegpeg)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2023, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-nfl-pick-em-and-survival-leagues-2023/989478/29 "2023-10-25T20:43:51Z")
Not sure when they put it up so the sample size might have been pretty small when you posted, it is now 33% LAC, 19% Bal, 18% Det, 7% Phi. I think there is usually only a clear favorite when a mediocre team is at home to a very week team. With only the Dolphins being stronger favorite than the Chargers (and very few people either already used the chargers or wanting to keep them until later) I am surprised not even more people are not going for the chargers. Being on my last life I need others to fall while I survive so will probably go with Miami this week. As an aside I hate the way Yahoo abbrievate the Rams “LA” so you have to try and find an “LAC” or “LAR” to see which team they are referring to. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2023, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-nfl-pick-em-and-survival-leagues-2023/989478/30 "2023-10-31T02:12:26Z")
Well I picked wrong, I went with Detroit over the Chargers and the won easily. This Detroit game is making me nervous. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2023, 7:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-nfl-pick-em-and-survival-leagues-2023/989478/31 "2023-11-02T07:01:33Z")
Almost everyone is split between 2 picks: Arizona at Cleveland, and Chicago at New Orleans. I don’t love either game. Cleveland should win this one easily, but they have an XFL pick machine in at quarterback which is a recipe for an underdog win. I don’t really know how good NO or how bad Chicago is, so I’m not sure if that’s a better bet. I’m in another survival pool on a Browns message board and we’re down to 18 out of 200+ that started. Most of the remaining players picked the Browns, so I’ll probably pick NO there just to be able to cash in if the Browns lose. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2023, 10:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-nfl-pick-em-and-survival-leagues-2023/989478/32 "2023-11-06T10:43:57Z")
Everyone survived this week except for Dale, who picked Arizona, which I’m not sure if it was a mistake or extreme homerism. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2023, 12:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-nfl-pick-em-and-survival-leagues-2023/989478/33 "2023-11-06T12:19:38Z")
It was just a placeholder that I forgot to go back to, these Thursday games every week make fantasy and pick em more of a pain these days ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2023, 10:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-nfl-pick-em-and-survival-leagues-2023/989478/34 "2023-11-07T10:13:07Z")
Some of you are lucky enough to have Dallas available to pick against NYG in survival, but most of us don’t have that luxury. Buffalo against Denver has a nice 7.5 line, but most of us have used Buffalo too. I suspect picks will vary more this week and we’ll see some eliminations. I think a lot of us will probably pick Cinci but I really don’t want to bet against Houston right now. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2023, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-nfl-pick-em-and-survival-leagues-2023/989478/35 "2023-11-07T17:52:07Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#): > > Some of you are lucky enough to have Dallas available to pick against NYG in survival Yes, I’m hoping to make up the pick that I missed back in week 3! ---
**Author:** ![Jegpeg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jegpeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jegpeg)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2023, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-nfl-pick-em-and-survival-leagues-2023/989478/36 "2023-11-08T18:08:49Z")
> [@Railer13](#): > > Yes, I’m hoping to make up the pick that I missed back in week 3! Cowboys were mostly picked in week 2 (9 picks) with only 2 picks in week 3 (when they lost to the Cards). I was thinking about half of us still had the Cowboys available but interestingly of the people who have been knocked out only Celtic Cowboys had picked Dallas before elimination. I went with the Giants in week 2 thinking they were “a team tht won a playoff game last season” rather than the team thrashed by the Cowboys in week 1 (and got away with it), though the Jags took me down in week 3. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2023, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-nfl-pick-em-and-survival-leagues-2023/989478/37 "2023-11-08T18:49:07Z")
> [@Jegpeg](#): > > the Jags took me down in week 3. Same here. I took the Bills in Week 2, and I’m glad I don’t have to make a decision about them now. Not sure if I’d pick them the rest of the season. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2023, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-nfl-pick-em-and-survival-leagues-2023/989478/38 "2023-11-12T20:02:17Z")
All three of the remaining strikeless survivors picked Cinci and it’s not looking good, we might all lose together. I really didn’t have a good feeling about this game, but I really had few options. Next best pick available was probably Pit vs GB and that game is a toss up. ---
**Author:** ![garygnu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/garygnu/32/2924_2.png) [@garygnu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/garygnu)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2023, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-nfl-pick-em-and-survival-leagues-2023/989478/39 "2023-11-12T21:44:17Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#): > > but I really had few options Same for me. Oh well. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2023, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-nfl-pick-em-and-survival-leagues-2023/989478/40 "2023-11-13T01:16:16Z")
So now there are six of us with one strike, and seven of us with two. It will be a fight to the finish! ---
**Author:** ![Jegpeg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jegpeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jegpeg)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2023, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-nfl-pick-em-and-survival-leagues-2023/989478/41 "2023-11-14T20:41:33Z")
Make that 5 with one strike and 7 with two and the Bills claim a couple of victims ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2023, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-nfl-pick-em-and-survival-leagues-2023/989478/42 "2023-11-14T21:14:30Z")
Correct. I obviously don’t count two good. Last week the correct picks included Dallas with 3, and Indy and Pitt with one each. The incorrect picks were Bengals with 5, and Baltimore and Buffalo with one each. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-nfl-pick-em-and-survival-leagues-2023/989478.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sdmb-nfl-pick-em-and-survival-leagues-2023/989478.md?page=3)