# Sea level rises 20 feet...how long do modern buildings in New York last? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [September 27, 2012, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sea-level-rises-20-feet-how-long-do-modern-buildings-in-new-york-last/636058 "2012-09-27T20:37:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2012, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sea-level-rises-20-feet-how-long-do-modern-buildings-in-new-york-last/636058/1 "2012-09-27T20:37:38Z")
I’ve seen a number of books lately that talk about sea level rise, and specifically discuss it in New York. The assumption seems to be that a lot of (poorer) people would just move up to higher levels in the buildings and eek out an existence above the water line. However, realistically, how long would the buildings even be able to stay up? I know that Venice had similar issues in the past, but those buildings were designed to be in that environment, with reinforced substructures crafted for a water environment…or, at least reinforced and re-purposed for it. So, leaving aside the fact that if the sea level rises 20 or 30 feet how it will render most if not all of the cities infrastructure that would be under water unusable, any GQ thoughts on how long the buildings would actually last before toppling over or rotting out from the sea water? ---
**Author:** ![friedo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/8edcca/32.png) [@friedo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/friedo)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2012, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sea-level-rises-20-feet-how-long-do-modern-buildings-in-new-york-last/636058/2 "2012-09-27T20:50:44Z")
Well, shit. This is just gonna cause even more delays on the B train. ---
**Author:** ![SirRay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/cc9497/32.png) [@SirRay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SirRay)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2012, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sea-level-rises-20-feet-how-long-do-modern-buildings-in-new-york-last/636058/3 "2012-09-27T22:03:56Z")
IMO, almost no buildings in NY as currently constructed that would be in the flooded zones will be able to withstand the constant motion from tidal forces and ocean waves for long and maintain usability or structural integrity. Giant dikes along the shorelines is the way to go… ---
**Author:** ![drastic\_quench](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e36b37/32.png) [@drastic\_quench](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drastic_quench)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2012, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sea-level-rises-20-feet-how-long-do-modern-buildings-in-new-york-last/636058/4 "2012-09-27T22:10:18Z")
I understand there’s seawalls and pumps running continually to keep NY sublevels dry. WTC has a seawall for instance, and there was some problem with it during the clearing. So if that vital system is swamped, less than a decade, I’d wager. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2012, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sea-level-rises-20-feet-how-long-do-modern-buildings-in-new-york-last/636058/5 "2012-09-27T22:14:29Z")
They’ll build up a sea wall, fill in a lot of the area below sea level, though not totally, just more of the mole people type catacombs under the city. They’ll step up pumping out the excess water working it’s way in. The Empire State Building has a river running through it’s basement, so this won’t make much difference. They may cede some land at the ends of the island but most of Manhattan will just have buildings with entrances on the 3rd or 4th floor. Many of them already have 2nd floor entrances from the buildup of the street level over time. ---
**Author:** ![Gagundathar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a183cd/32.png) [@Gagundathar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gagundathar)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2012, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sea-level-rises-20-feet-how-long-do-modern-buildings-in-new-york-last/636058/6 "2012-09-27T22:23:16Z")
Yes. The infrastructure is not designed to handle a 20 foot rise in sea level. The existing dikes would be overwhelmed and the streets would be flooded. The subways would likewise be filled with water and inoperable. The foundations of many Upper Manhattan skyscrapers are seated in the Fordham gneiss and therefore they would probably just rot from within as the water seeped inward. The others would gradually topple. Everything south of Central Park would be uninhabitable. BUT, this is based upon how fast the rise would occur. If it is gradual (as it is in Venice) then a remediation project, grand engineering surpassing the creation of the island’s existing structures, could save Manhattan. As for the rest of the boroughs? Perhaps not. ---
**Author:** ![drastic\_quench](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e36b37/32.png) [@drastic\_quench](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drastic_quench)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2012, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sea-level-rises-20-feet-how-long-do-modern-buildings-in-new-york-last/636058/7 "2012-09-27T22:23:43Z")
> [@SirRay](#): > > IMO, almost no buildings in NY as currently constructed that would be in the flooded zones will be able to withstand the constant motion from tidal forces and ocean waves for long and maintain usability or structural integrity. > > Giant dikes along the shorelines is the way to go… So we’ll simply have to alter the parade route? ---
**Author:** ![Sudden\_Kestrel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecd19e/32.png) [@Sudden\_Kestrel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sudden_Kestrel)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2012, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sea-level-rises-20-feet-how-long-do-modern-buildings-in-new-york-last/636058/8 "2012-09-27T23:05:11Z")
> [@XT](#): > > \ eek out an existence \ I love this phrase and think we should all use it frequently. ---
**Author:** ![drastic\_quench](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e36b37/32.png) [@drastic\_quench](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drastic_quench)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2012, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sea-level-rises-20-feet-how-long-do-modern-buildings-in-new-york-last/636058/9 "2012-09-27T23:16:35Z")
> [@Sudden\_Kestrel](#): > > I love this phrase and think we should all use it frequently. It’s “eke” of you’re going to be writing it all the time. “Eek” if you’re into onomatopoeia rodent puns. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2012, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sea-level-rises-20-feet-how-long-do-modern-buildings-in-new-york-last/636058/10 "2012-09-27T23:41:18Z")
> [@SirRay](#): > > Giant dikes along the shorelines is the way to go… Okay, but YOU tell her… ---
**Author:** ![Senegoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senegoid/32/6606_2.png) [@Senegoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Senegoid)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2012, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sea-level-rises-20-feet-how-long-do-modern-buildings-in-new-york-last/636058/11 "2012-09-27T23:50:23Z")
> [@drastic\_quench](#): > > It’s “eke” of you’re going to be writing it all the time. **“Eek” if you’re into onomatopoeia rodent puns.** That would be **MeanOldLady** who [“eeks” out an existence](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=660390) with her pet mice. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sea-level-rises-20-feet-how-long-do-modern-buildings-in-new-york-last/636058/12 "2012-09-28T00:50:08Z")
According to [this map](http://flood.firetree.net/?ll=40.71083299030839,-73.94948959350586&z=4&m=7), very little of Manhattan would be sunk even with a 20-foot rise in sea level. If you happen to live in Queens, however, you may want to invest in scuba gear. ---
**Author:** ![Sudden\_Kestrel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecd19e/32.png) [@Sudden\_Kestrel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sudden_Kestrel)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sea-level-rises-20-feet-how-long-do-modern-buildings-in-new-york-last/636058/13 "2012-09-28T03:16:26Z")
> [@drastic\_quench](#): > > It’s “eke” of you’re going to be writing it all the time. “Eek” if you’re into onomatopoeia rodent puns. Yeah, that was sort of the point of my post ;). ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sea-level-rises-20-feet-how-long-do-modern-buildings-in-new-york-last/636058/14 "2012-09-28T13:50:58Z")
> [@kunilou](#): > > According to [this map](http://flood.firetree.net/?ll=40.71083299030839,-73.94948959350586&z=4&m=7), very little of Manhattan would be sunk even with a 20-foot rise in sea level. If you happen to live in Queens, however, you may want to invest in scuba gear. Well, 125th St. would be toast (bad metaphor, but I can’t think of a better). All of Brooklyn below the escarpment likewise. My daughter lives between 5th and 6th Av in Brooklyn, more than halfway up to Prospect Park so I expect she will be okay. The subways already have to be pumped out constantly and would not survive, I imagine. ---
**Author:** ![StrangerThanFiction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f05b48/32.png) [@StrangerThanFiction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/StrangerThanFiction)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sea-level-rises-20-feet-how-long-do-modern-buildings-in-new-york-last/636058/15 "2012-09-28T13:57:47Z")
> [@drastic\_quench](#): > > So we’ll simply have to alter the parade route? _golf clap_ ---
**Author:** ![Sicks\_Ate](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/258eb7/32.png) [@Sicks\_Ate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sicks_Ate)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sea-level-rises-20-feet-how-long-do-modern-buildings-in-new-york-last/636058/16 "2012-09-28T13:59:09Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > They’ll build up a sea wall, fill in a lot of the area below sea level, though not totally, just more of the mole people type catacombs under the city. They’ll step up pumping out the excess water working it’s way in. **The Empire State Building has a river running through it’s basement** , so this won’t make much difference. They may cede some land at the ends of the island but most of Manhattan will just have buildings with entrances on the 3rd or 4th floor. **Many of them already have 2nd floor entrances from the buildup of the street level over time**. Fascinating! Can you recommend any good books or articles that go in to more detail? ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sea-level-rises-20-feet-how-long-do-modern-buildings-in-new-york-last/636058/17 "2012-09-28T13:59:26Z")
> [@Sudden\_Kestrel](#): > > I love this phrase and think we should all use it frequently. [QUOTE=drastic\_quench] It’s “eke” of you’re going to be writing it all the time. “Eek” if you’re into onomatopoeia rodent puns. [/QUOTE] Hey, if it doesn’t come up with a red line under it on my iPad it MUST be spelled correctly. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sea-level-rises-20-feet-how-long-do-modern-buildings-in-new-york-last/636058/18 "2012-09-28T14:41:52Z")
> [@Sicks\_Ate](#): > > Fascinating! Can you recommend any good books or articles that go in to more detail? Not really. I saw the part about water running through the lower levels of the Empire State Building on a website, and you just have to visit places in Manhattan to see the way the streets were built up over the years. Sometimes you walk downstairs to get to the lobby of buildings, or find a floor of apartments below street level. In a another thread someone mentioned how front steps to some buildings are no longer found because the street level was raised. I think it was the easy approach to getting utilities underground. ETA: Here’s something about how [the Empire State Building was built on a lake](http://bldgblog.blogspot.com/2012/05/lost-lakes-of-empire-state-building.html). ---
**Author:** ![Diceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Diceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diceman)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sea-level-rises-20-feet-how-long-do-modern-buildings-in-new-york-last/636058/19 "2012-09-28T16:57:34Z")
JFK airport would be underwater. That’s gonna cut into the on-time rate. ---
**Author:** ![howye](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a9adbd/32.png) [@howye](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/howye)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sea-level-rises-20-feet-how-long-do-modern-buildings-in-new-york-last/636058/20 "2012-09-28T18:13:33Z")
> [@Diceman](#): > > JFK airport would be underwater. That’s gonna cut into the on-time rate. LaGuardia and Newark are going to have delays too. Although Newarks runways appear to be mostly above water. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sea-level-rises-20-feet-how-long-do-modern-buildings-in-new-york-last/636058.md?page=2)