# Season Long NFC North Discussion Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [September 1, 2009, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/season-long-nfc-north-discussion-thread/508514 "2009-09-01T17:54:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 52
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2010, 4:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/season-long-nfc-north-discussion-thread/508514/1021 "2010-01-05T04:40:02Z")
> [@DSYoungEsq](#): > > But you DO mention the name of Rodney Peete? šŸ˜•:eek: Heā€™s a garden-variety bust. On a high draft pick. For a quarterback. I hate football. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2010, 4:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/season-long-nfc-north-discussion-thread/508514/1022 "2010-01-05T04:52:08Z")
> [@cricetus](#): > > If the completions are commiserate with your theory, I accept it. ```auto Seasons Attempts YPA Comp % ------- -------- --- ------ 2 650+ 6.9 59.7 14 600-649 6.8 59.7 45 550-599 7.1 59.9 90 500-549 7.1 59.2 121 450-499 7.1 58.6 108 400-449 6.9 57.7 107 350-399 6.9 57.0 101 300-349 6.9 56.8 97 250-299 6.8 55.7 97 200-249 6.7 55.6 ``` Looks like it is indeed the case that the more you want to throw the more accurate you have to be. ---
**Author:** ![DSYoungEsq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c6cbf5/32.png) [@DSYoungEsq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSYoungEsq)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2010, 12:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/season-long-nfc-north-discussion-thread/508514/1023 "2010-01-05T12:08:43Z")
> [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](#): > > But that accuracy rating is going to go down the more passes you throw. Itā€™s easy to go 70 or 80% in the short term than to go 70 for 100 in the long term. As shown by two bits of data in this thread alone, you are wrong. First, Starr threw for fewer attempts than Manning, but Manningā€™s completion percentages are routinely higher. Second, Ellis Deeā€™s data shows that the trend is for higher completionn percentages with increased attempts per season, not the other way. You are still wrong. @ **cricetus** : the word you want is commensurate, not comiserate. šŸ˜‰ @ **Ellis Dee** : One caution with that data, it includes both good and bad quarterbacks. Bad quarterbacks would have both poor completion rates and fewer attempts, as teams rely upon a running game to compensate. So the numbers down at the bottom end drop off, not surprisingly, I think. We would expect completion percentages to go up with passing attempts in most cases, because the easiest way to increase the number of passes is to use the pass in place of identical running plays, e.g.: the swing pass replacing the old Packer sweep. Such passes have a higher completion percentage. What appears to be interesting is that increasing such attempts does not in fact reduce YPA. Though I suppose I shouldnā€™t be surprised, as Iā€™ve seen a number of teams use the swing pass and its brethren quite effectively to gain chunks of territory. ---
**Author:** ![Sinaijon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/dc4da7/32.png) [@Sinaijon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sinaijon)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2010, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/season-long-nfc-north-discussion-thread/508514/1024 "2010-01-06T16:40:04Z")
> [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](#): > > But that accuracy rating is going to go down the more passes you throw. Itā€™s easy to go 70 or 80% in the short term than to go 70 for 100 in the long term. Itā€™s also easier to go 20-30% over the short term. Lots of QBs will start a game 1-4 or so. In a sense, you are right that the standard deviation can be higher for fewer attempts, but it goes in both directions. And if you take a step back and look at it, the higher attempts is probably a result of higher completion %, not the reverse. If you have a QB like Spergon Wynn, you ainā€™t gonna throw 50 times in a game. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2010, 4:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/season-long-nfc-north-discussion-thread/508514/1025 "2010-01-08T04:16:32Z")
> [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](#): > > That just proves the passer rating is an overrated stat. Let Rodgers play for 19 years and then weā€™ll se what his passer rating is. > > One stat you didnā€™t mention from last season is 6-10. he got a lot of passing yards because he was playing from behind all the time. That always inflates passing stats. Heā€™s not going to play for 19 years. Even if he was going to, thatā€™s a silly argument. The Packers werenā€™t choosing between Brett Favre 4 years in and Aaron Rodgers 4 years in; they were choosing between Brett Favre 17 years in and Aaron Rodgers 4 years in. Passing _yardage_ is certainly boosted by playing from behind. Passer _ratings_ certainly arenā€™t; a team playing from behind is one dimensional, and defenders key on the pass. This means more deep safeties, and more incompletions and interceptions. Anyway, you can hardly blame the Packersā€™ record on Rodgers; he played brilliantly in 2008, and the defense played poorly. Tom Bradyā€™s numbers are generally pretty awesome, and the Patriots are rarely playing from behind. Peyton Manningā€™s numbers are generally pretty awesome, and the Colts are rarely behind. > [@UncleNito](#): > > Are you jumping into the Dreamiest Packers QB Evah!!!1! debate? WTF do the last 19 years have to do with whether the Packers made the right call making a change when they did? In the long run, the Packers are better off with a young Rodgers than an old Favre. Iā€™ve said this before, but I suspect most Vikings fans would rather have Rodgers, too. This Buccaneers fan didnā€™t want Favre in 2008, but would have taken Rodgers in a heartbeat. > [@UncleNito](#): > > ETA: To clarify, Iā€™m not agreeing with **Dio**. Iā€™m just saying that the Lombardi Packers didnā€™t rely on 5-yard screen passes and TE square-outs like the Holmgren offense did, to say nothing of the empty-backfield, 3-yard slant on the goal line that is so common today. Off topic, but that is my least favorite play in football - the empty backfield in short-yardage situations. At least make the defense think you _might_ run. Adding a fifth receiver when youā€™re three yards from the endzone just makes the passing lanes more crowded anyway. > [@Sinaijon](#): > > And if you take a step back and look at it, the higher attempts is probably a result of higher completion %, not the reverse. If you have a QB like Spergon Wynn, you ainā€™t gonna throw 50 times in a game. Thatā€™s a pretty good point. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2010, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/season-long-nfc-north-discussion-thread/508514/1026 "2010-01-09T14:48:01Z")
Apparently the Bears are talking to none other than supergenius Mike Martz to take over their offensive coordinator position. That could be fascinating. Give him a group of underacheiveing, high potential players like Cutler, Hester, and Forte, and maybe he can work some magic. Iā€™m officially intrigued. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2010, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/season-long-nfc-north-discussion-thread/508514/1027 "2010-01-09T19:16:54Z")
Even in Detroit Martz had Roy Williams. The Bears arenā€™t going anywhere even with Bill Walsh running the offense unless they find a true #1 wideout. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2010, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/season-long-nfc-north-discussion-thread/508514/1028 "2010-01-09T21:46:29Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > Apparently the Bears are talking to none other than supergenius Mike Martz to take over their offensive coordinator position. That could be fascinating. Give him a group of underacheiveing, high potential players like Cutler, Hester, and Forte, and maybe he can work some magic. > > Iā€™m officially intrigued. And with that tattered O line he could get Cutler killed. Iā€™m not a fan of Martz, though his addition could very well lead to a early exit for Lovie if things implode under his watch. Weā€™ll see, since he left St Louis Iā€™ve seen little to verify his credentials as an offensive genius. Though, I will concede that our WR group looks similar to the guys he used so well in St Louis with a group of smallish, fast elusive guys. Knox plays the Holt role, Aromashodu plays the Bruce role and Hester plays the Az Hakim role. Those guys were all Pro Bowlers but I suppose itā€™s not impossible that these guys could break out given enough balls. Forteā€™s receiving skills obviously would be an asset. Al Saunders is supposedly getting an interview too. I think Iā€™d prefer him over Martz since I think heā€™d have a much better chance of coexisting with Cutler. The original rumors of Jeremy Bates coming seem to be killed by this Carroll to Seattle mess which is a disappointment, but maybe heā€™ll end up in the middle of a bidding war. Weā€™ll see. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2010, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/season-long-nfc-north-discussion-thread/508514/1029 "2010-01-10T00:13:16Z")
I can kind of see Forte as Marshall Faulk. Iā€™m definitely not seeing Johnny Knox and Devin Aromashodu as Ike Bruce and Torry Holt. I wouldnā€™t worry about the offensive line, though- Martzā€™ system worked just fine in Detroit, and their line was even worse than yours. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2010, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/season-long-nfc-north-discussion-thread/508514/1030 "2010-01-10T01:06:07Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > I can kind of see Forte as Marshall Faulk. Iā€™m definitely not seeing Johnny Knox and Devin Aromashodu as Ike Bruce and Torry Holt. They have similar frames and skill sets. They obviously donā€™t have any credentials but itā€™s easy to imagine Martz envisioning them stepping right into the same playbook. Itā€™s unclear how important ā€œtypeā€ is to the roles in Martzā€™s scheme. > [@](#): > > I wouldnā€™t worry about the offensive line, though- Martzā€™ system worked just fine in Detroit, and their line was even worse than yours. Did it work? I seem to remember Kitna getting slaughtered back there regularly. A quick check reveals sack totals of 63 and 51 and INTs totals over 20. Not a great recipe for Cutler. Heā€™s tough but he makes mistakes under pressure. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2010, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/season-long-nfc-north-discussion-thread/508514/1031 "2010-01-10T02:04:38Z")
Heā€™s going to be under pressure regardless of the scheme. At least Martz will only have him running three step drops. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2010, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/season-long-nfc-north-discussion-thread/508514/1032 "2010-01-10T02:17:52Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > I can kind of see Forte as Marshall Faulk. Really. Other than being ā€¦ human and being ā€¦ able to occasionally catch a football, Iā€™m not seeing it. Faulk had speed, elusiveness, some nifty moves, the ability to cut on a dime, and great acceleration. Forte has ā€¦ well ā€¦ heā€™s human. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2010, 5:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/season-long-nfc-north-discussion-thread/508514/1033 "2010-01-10T05:17:37Z")
The Martz offense was completely different from what we saw/were used to in Detroit. Even now, itā€™s still more advanced than what we had, although Martz did fall in love with the pass, leaving lots of time on the clock. I wish we would have kept Martz. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2010, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/season-long-nfc-north-discussion-thread/508514/1034 "2010-01-10T19:00:19Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > Really. Other than being ā€¦ human and being ā€¦ able to occasionally catch a football, Iā€™m not seeing it. Faulk had speed, elusiveness, some nifty moves, the ability to cut on a dime, and great acceleration. > > Forte has ā€¦ well ā€¦ heā€™s human. Heā€™s closer to approximating Marshall Faulk than Johnny Knox and Devin Aromatherapy are to being Ike Bruce and Torry Holt. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/season-long-nfc-north-discussion-thread/508514/1035 "2010-01-11T00:32:46Z")
The Bears are [interviewing](http://www.chicagobreakingsports.com/2010/01/bears-interviews-fewell-on-monday-bates-on-tuesday.html) their first choices on Monday and Tuesday. Wonder if weā€™ll have news this week. ---
**Author:** ![unwashed\_brain](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/a9adbd/32.png) [@unwashed\_brain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/unwashed_brain)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/season-long-nfc-north-discussion-thread/508514/1036 "2010-01-11T01:09:54Z")
What a crazy-ass game, packer fans. Iā€™m terribly glad there will be no revenge-f\*ck game versus Favre and the Vikings this year. As the Vikings are the last team alive in the NFC Norris, I expect all of you to be rooting for the Vikings next weekend.\* \*this is apparently how it works in SEC country. ---
**Author:** ![DSYoungEsq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c6cbf5/32.png) [@DSYoungEsq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSYoungEsq)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/season-long-nfc-north-discussion-thread/508514/1037 "2010-01-11T01:56:06Z")
You ARE joking, right? šŸ˜ƒ ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 4:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/season-long-nfc-north-discussion-thread/508514/1038 "2010-01-11T04:36:18Z")
> [@unwashed\_brain](#): > > What a crazy-ass game, packer fans. Iā€™m terribly glad there will be no revenge-f\*ck game versus Favre and the Vikings this year. Iā€™m glad there will be no stupid quasi-soap-opera coverage of it. Iā€™m a little disappointed there wonā€™t be an actual _game_. I would be _terrified_ of the Cardinals were I the rest of the NFC. Remember, they did all that _without_ Boldin. ---
**Author:** ![N9IWP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/n9iwp/32/3154_2.png) [@N9IWP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/N9IWP)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 12:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/season-long-nfc-north-discussion-thread/508514/1039 "2010-01-11T12:57:14Z")
On the bright side, 11-5 is a heck of a lot better than 6-10. And coming from 17 (21?) points behind to make it a tie game is not too shabby (getting that far behind, on the other hand ā€¦) Brian ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/season-long-nfc-north-discussion-thread/508514/1040 "2010-01-11T13:54:25Z")
I missed the last play of the game. Was the facemask on Rodgers that egregious? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/season-long-nfc-north-discussion-thread/508514.md?page=51) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/season-long-nfc-north-discussion-thread/508514.md?page=53)