If I were Biden, this is how I would spin it: “Did this go the way I originally wanted it to go? It did not. Did the Republicans get everything they wanted? They did not. Did the US default? We did not. I sat down with McCarthy and made sure that didn’t happen. McCarthy hates me. I can work with people who hate me. Vote Biden 2024.”
Will that be inspirational to his base, or the Progressive end of the party? Nope. But it may persuade the independent voters in the swing states that this is a better alternative than Donald Trump. And I’ll take four more years of a watered-down Biden than another four years of Trump any day of the week.
As far as compromises go, and from everything I’ve heard about this one, this is not bad. The loss of funding for IRS overhaul is a bit of a shame (and it’s telling that it was such a Republican priority) but the spending can go on as before, it will just mean the IRS will have to go back to Congress earlier than before to keep funding up. Permitting for the WV gas pipeline sucks, but as long as the IRA funding continues, it will become less important over time.
But the real issue is that taking the economy hostage is still considered a valid Republican tactic. If the next Democratic administration facing a hostile Congress wants to defang this approach on principle, they should talk to the U.S. Mint several months before and start making plans to mint a trillion dollar coin. It’s not something that can be done overnight, and would be best done well before another debt ceiling crisis looms; it seems like the current administration just never thought the House Republicans would be able to get their ducks in a row and pass something as a basis for negotiation, then were surprised when it happened and couldn’t make good on the “no negotiations” red line.
Doing this would also require the right personnel in the right positions - specifically, Janet Yellen has been very negative toward the coin option in the past. You’d need someone who can be a coin proponent from day one as Treasury Secretary to make it work, along with a lot of public education and outreach. But it should be possible to design the coin, do the minting, and take it to the Fed before the situation becomes a crisis, so that any legal issues are hashed out before there’s no time left.
And to give time to beef up security at Fort Knox, to preempt MTG from organizing another Y’All Qaeda insurrection aimed at stealing the trillion dollar coin.
But the platinum coin option isn’t great, either. For one thing, if it ever gets used, then the next time the Republicans have power, they can just pass a law to close that loophole. The appeal to the Constitution and to basic arithmetic is the one true answer.
That was after all the core element of the 2020 election. “We offer you a Return To Normal in the hands of a Nice Predictable Old Guy, you won’t have to get up scared of what he tweeted at 3am.” And as an example we have here, a retread of what has been normal ever since the drafting of the constitution: a compromise to keep the established order running.
Now, as to whether the next majority-in-all-components Dem government may want to fix this as their priority for spending political capital, instead of going for some sort of epic social transformative legislation doomed from the start to end up badly nerfed, that’s a political decision. I have the suspicion a number of Democrat legislators feel like they may want to at least keep the possibility of “doing unto them”.
But debt-ceiling brinksmanship is inherently a weapon that the Democrats can’t wield. When the Republicans say “Give us what we want, or we’ll burn it all down”, the Democrats are in a tough spot, because we don’t want it all burned down. But if the Democrats were to say “Give us what we want or we’ll burn it all down”, the Republicans would say “Sounds like a win-win”.
And this goes for most of the weapons the Republicans wield, for that matter. The filibuster favors the side who wants government to be incompetent. Which makes it all the more puzzling why we allow the Republicans to continue to wield those weapons.
If a Democratic president can ignore the debt ceiling, then it doesn’t really exist. That hasn’t been tested in court, but if Republicans believe that Biden will ignore the debt ceiling if they don’t make a deal, and they believe that the courts will not intervene, then that might explain why McCarthy agreed to a deal that’s not any better than he would have gotten without the debt ceiling to use as a hostage.
And perhaps Biden agreed to keep this threat secret (to smooth this deal) so that Republicans can still publicly say they will use the debt ceiling for leverage, even if that leverage is actually gone.
Getting rid if the debt ceiling is a Dem idea, but they have never controlled the House, Sentae and Presidency enuf in any one year to do it.
Right.
You dont think that greater legal minds than any here have considered that idea and told Biden not to try that unless absolutely necessary what with a hostile SCOTUS?
Surely they have. But at some point we have to try. I’d like to see that the next time we have a Democratic House and President and 50+ genuine Democrats in the Senate pass a bill (after carving out an exception to the filibuster) suspending the debt ceiling for 50+ years. If they don’t like the bill, then sue to stop it.
sure, once the Dems get enough votes they can get rid of it.
Yeah, one guy. Not that he isnt qualified, but Biden has dozens of qualified experts.
And note "Of course, my solution might roil the bond markets and cause lenders to demand a premium for extending credit to the United States. But no path out of the dilemma is without risk."
I think the current compromise is way less risky that that. Mind you, it is the nuke option, which is which McC didnt pull a hard line on all his demands.
More or less the Republicans were the Democrats back then.
The Democrats were the Party of racism and slavery back then. Now it’s the Republicans.
Are there conditions that must be met before the Dems can abolish this whole stupid charade? Is there something they can do, absent the pressure of a looming default, to make it impossible for the GOP to pull this shitshow again? If so, what?
The threat has always been “Republicans are willing to tank our credit aba economy” - IMO this deal proves either that they aren’t willing, or that they can’t (because Biden told them to agree or he’d use the 14th amendment). I don’t think it’s anything to be afraid of any more. The 14th amendment and other extraordinary options are still there if we need them, but maybe we won’t need them at all.
Using the 14th Amendment would mean NO negotiation or compromise at all. Just a clean debt ceiling bill, that’s it.
Instead he gave them a lot of what they wanted. He let them hold the economy hostage, and they’re going to do it again.
I want them to get told, by the SC if necessary, this tactic won’t work, the threat is hollow, and if they want a budget, they’ll need to negotiate for one during budget negotiations, not debt-ceiling bills.
Can they, for example, include in the next budget discussion when the Dems have the house a rider saying that future debt-discussions will be pro forma and that no additional terms or conditions shall be attached to it? Or could the current Dem senate insist on that rider as a condition of the budget’s passing?
I voted for Biden because I don’t want a maverick asshole in the WH. As much as I would LOVE for Biden to tell McCarthy to go home and get his fucking shinebox, the country needs sober adult leadership. We do not need a leader who is going to try and score points, or trot out untested ways to mess with the opposition, and maybe put us all in a worse position than before.
How does the 14th A shake out when SCOTUS rules for McCarthy? How does Biden’s negotiating position look then? That’s the situation the acronym BOHICA was invented for. Best to hold that stuff in reserve, as a negotiating point, than trust it to be the winning move.
My point is that we don’t know. Maybe that happened behind the scenes, and all this is theater. They would have had to negotiate the budget anyway. We’ll see what happens next time, but I don’t think the debt ceiling really matters anymore. Either they get a deal or the president will use the 14th or other methods. It’s just not a real threat anymore.
AIUI pre-WW1 there was no Debt Limit law. You issued debt as it became necessary to cover the needs, through Act of Congress as part of the usual yearly fiscal exercise. Then WW1 comes along and Congress authorizes the Treasury by law to issue debt administratively, directly, w/o coming through them, up to what was then a reasonably-high amount, in order to allow wartime bonds to be issued w/o having to come back to Congress to approve Every.Single.Dollar.Every.Time.
The clever idea to solve a need of a time, stuck, because of course obligations take a while to to get paid and others can come up and what is this, oh, dear, a Depression? We need social programs. Another World War? This is gonna be expensive. And so on…
Because of the perception that it’s the thing that prevents the USA from just cranking up and start printing more money than is collected from taxes out of thin air to pay the securities.