Secret Hillary voters-- how much effect?

[enipla]

@Psychopants

women (and men) have shared their stories there. many are surrounded by family, neighbors and friends with whom they cannot share their intent.

Yeah… My Wife’s side of the family are all quite religious and Trump supporters. I don’t get that combo at all.

My Wife and I don’t bring it up, but when my Wife’s sister sent her a glurge about how god sent Trump to save us all, my Wife responded with a rather scorching email. We will see how that pans out.

[Sam_Lowry]

@Tzigone

I don’t think there are enough secret voters for either side to effect the outcome of the election. Secret voter are more likely to be where their opinions would cause social trouble, and since this isn’t popular vote, but electoral, it makes less of a difference. Secret Clinton voters in red areas that will still go red and secret Trump voters in blue areas that will still go blue. There won’t be enough of them in swing states to turn enough voters to an unexpected outcome (Trump winning). Or so I keep telling myself. Despite there not actually being anything new or damning released on the emails, and despite baked in knowledge and partisanship, I admit the press on it still worries me a bit.

There are swing states though, and they can by area, especially considering rural and urban areas. There could be secret Trump voters in Las Vegas and secret Clinton voters in rural Ohio. I don’t know which side has more secret voters, but I’m guessing that either way it won’t change the overall count too much.

[Quartz]

@Happy_Lendervedder

In the GOTV door knocking we’ve been doing in rural west Michigan

Thank you for helping make democracy work.

[dtilque]

@adaher

Secret Hillary voters don’t change things unless they are also afraid to tell pollsters they are voting for Clinton. And if they are afraid of that as well as their friends and family, they are probably afraid to actually vote too.

Depends on the circumstances of when they’re polled. If their husband is sitting right near the phone, they may still be reluctant to give an honest answer to the pollster, yet still will vote H in the privacy of a voting booth.

There’s also the Polls-plus thing fivethirtyeight does using historical data to modify the results. Virtually all the SHVs are traditionally Republican, so it will assume they are voting Trump and adjust accordingly. So that result may be off. I usually ignore that and just look at the Polls-only result.

[Quartz]

@dtilque

Depends on the circumstances of when they’re polled. If their husband is sitting right near the phone, they may still be reluctant to give an honest answer to the pollster, yet still will vote H in the privacy of a voting booth.

Don’t forget the reverses too: men saying they’ll vote for Clinton because their wife is in earshot, and women saying they’ll vote for Clinton but actually voting Trump because to them he’s the ultimate Bad Boy.

Virtually all the SHVs are traditionally Republican

What’s a SHV?

[ElvisL1ves]

@Quartz

women saying they’ll vote for Clinton but actually voting Trump because to them he’s the ultimate Bad Boy.

Do you know of any examples of that at all?

[dtilque]

@Quartz

Don’t forget the reverses too: men saying they’ll vote for Clinton because their wife is in earshot, and women saying they’ll vote for Clinton but actually voting Trump because to them he’s the ultimate Bad Boy.

Yes, but you have to ask what is most common. Is it women who are enthralled by Bad Boys or women who’ve been molested by men? I strongly suspect the latter. This phenomenon only really became a big thing after the Tape was released.

What’s a SHV?

Secret Hillary Voter.

[joyfool]

I’m one of them. Not because I’m typically shy about my political feelings or care who knows what I think about whatever candidate. But I have no desire to be the only observable Hillary voter for the next four years for people to bitch at. So, I’m telling folks that, for the first time since I was 18, that I’m just sitting this one out. I mean, it’s crazy here. I’m at lunch and the two women behind me struck up a conversation about the election, and one said that Hillary deserves to burn in hell. The last thing I need is for my home or car to be vandalized, or sim to happen to my pups while they’re out in the yard.

Just another point of anecdata.

[penultima_thule]

@Happy_Lendervedder

“this is to weed out anyone we don’t want to turn out on Nov. 8”

… and some people wonder where this “vote for a demagogue because the elites don’t listen to us” meme originated?

[tim-n-va]

I am aware that this could be localized to my social circle but…

In general the Trump supporters are very vocal about it. Posting on Facebook, proudly claiming the deplorables label. The Clinton supporters are much less enthusiastic publicly but just as committed to Never-Trump.

I don’t see a lot of Clinton signs but I’ve seen Trump signs defaced. The high negatives for both of these candidates makes me wary of interpreting unsolicited public comment or assigning secret motives.

[Amateur_Barbarian]

@Quartz

What’s a SHV?

@dtilque

Secret Hillary Voter.

SHiV Trump?

[Chronos]

Quoth tim-n-va:

I am aware that this could be localized to my social circle but…

In general the Trump supporters are very vocal about it. Posting on Facebook, proudly claiming the deplorables label. The Clinton supporters are much less enthusiastic publicly but just as committed to Never-Trump.

Yeah, this is what I was thinking. Trump has never in his life been able to keep his mouth shut about anything, and I expect that this is disproportionately true of his supporters, too.