# Self driving cars are still decades away

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499>\
**Category:** In My Humble Opinion\
**Created:** [October 10, 2017, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499 "2017-10-10T17:38:25Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 102

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**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\
**Post date:** [July 13, 2024, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2028 "2024-07-13T20:01:29Z")

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> [@hajario](#):
>
> I made the decision to jump to the UI track so I’m on 2024.20.3 because I eventually want 2024.26 which has native YouTube Music. I’ll be on FSD 12.3.6 until the next merge. I don’t mind the steering wheel nag that much.

2024.26.1’s release notes just dropped. Not sent out to the masses but YouTube Music is apparently no longer included. FML

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**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\
**Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2029 "2024-07-14T04:13:19Z")

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**Author:** ![engineer\_comp\_geek](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/engineer_comp_geek/32/504_2.png) [@engineer\_comp\_geek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/engineer_comp_geek)\
**Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 7:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2030 "2024-07-14T07:40:44Z")

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**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\
**Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2031 "2024-07-18T17:48:39Z")

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They seemed to have paused the rollout of FSD 12.4.2. Only 20% of the TeslaFi fleet have it and updates are at a trickle. The latest UI version looks to be starting a roll out (with 12.3.6).

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**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\
**Post date:** [July 22, 2024, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2032 "2024-07-22T21:03:22Z")

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FSD 12.5 which has no nag even with sunglasses is apparently rolling out to employees and it’s on the 2024.20 branch. (2024.20.10).

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**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\
**Post date:** [July 22, 2024, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2033 "2024-07-22T22:33:37Z")

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Feels like it’s been forever since I got 12.3.6. But it’s been \<3 months. Granted, outside events have made that feel like 3 years.

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**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\
**Post date:** [July 23, 2024, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2034 "2024-07-23T00:15:46Z")

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There is crazy hype over this. Besides the no nag it has “unified model for highway & city streets” which I don’t understand what it means. Also it’s the first FSD that Cybertrucks get.

Most people will skip 12.4.x entirely.

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**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\
**Post date:** [July 23, 2024, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2035 "2024-07-23T00:25:25Z")

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> [@hajario](#):
>
> which I don’t understand what it means

FSD on the highway isn’t using the end-to-end model. The end-to-end model basically takes zillions of clips of the camera inputs and the steering/throttle position, and trains with that input, leaving the neural net to do its thing internally. The previous model (from v11, and still used for highway) is still trained from clips, but has a human-created internal representation, which amounts to “there’s a car here, and a telephone pole there, and road markings here, etc.”. And then it also has a bunch of spaghetti code to decide what to do in all those situations.

The advantage of end-to-end is that it doesn’t build in a bunch of preconceptions, and is also easier to train because you don’t need a human to label all the different elements.

Highway driving is still a weak point in \<=12.4–while it does ok in easy situations, if there’s anything weird like degraded markings or unusual construction, it tends to fall apart. A unified model should fix this. Also (I hope), just lane changes. Always snappy on city streets, as if it already knew if the lane was clear and then goes immediately if it is. While on highways it takes a few seconds even to start moving, even if the destination is totally clear.

It also probably means more resources available for each mode of operation. The single model will have to be bigger than either the highway or city driving models individually, it should be much smaller than both of them combined (since so many elements are the same, like whatever piece recognizes cars, lanes, etc.).

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**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\
**Post date:** [July 23, 2024, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2036 "2024-07-23T00:30:53Z")

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Thanks for all of that. Great explanation.

I had the FSD get a little wonky on city streets yesterday. It was a just paved road and the lines hadn’t been painted yet, just those little tabs. It didn’t know what to do so I took over. I don’t ordinarily use it on streets anymore, just freeways. I was just in the mood yesterday.

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**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\
**Post date:** [July 23, 2024, 4:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2037 "2024-07-23T04:51:24Z")

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If you don’t yet have 2024.20.9, check your car. They are doing a massive push right now but for some reason it’s not giving phone notifications. This is supposedly in preparation for 2024.20.10 which has FSD 12.5. There appears to be a lot of confidence in this version as opposed to the 12.4.x fiasco.

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**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\
**Post date:** [July 23, 2024, 4:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2038 "2024-07-23T04:58:15Z")

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Interesting. I’ll take a look. Need to poke my head down there anyway to see how much juice my [teslausb](https://github.com/marcone/teslausb) has left.

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**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\
**Post date:** [July 23, 2024, 5:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2039 "2024-07-23T05:00:53Z")

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Word is that FSD 12.5 will not have the single stack. That will come in a later point release. The nag will go away though.

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**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\
**Post date:** [July 23, 2024, 5:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2040 "2024-07-23T05:05:21Z")

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Yup. From an official Tesla account:

> <https://x.com/aelluswamy/status/1815604962598264941>

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**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\
**Post date:** [July 23, 2024, 5:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2041 "2024-07-23T05:07:30Z")

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So it’s what 12.4 was supposed to be

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**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\
**Post date:** [July 23, 2024, 5:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2042 "2024-07-23T05:14:44Z")

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My intuition is that they actually had substantially improved training data, but the NN just didn’t have the capacity to make use of it. 12.5 supposedly has 5x the number of weights as 12.3-12.4, so it can likely “absorb” substantially more training without regressing some other aspect. That’s pure speculation, though.

I do wonder, though. I have HW3. 5x the weights is substantial but they must be getting close to the hardware capacity. I wonder if they’ll have to upgrade me at some point. Maybe not the cameras, just the computer.

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**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\
**Post date:** [July 23, 2024, 11:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2043 "2024-07-23T11:36:09Z")

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Origin, GM’s funky-looking Robotaxi, is no more. They write down a more than half a billion dollar loss and move on.

> **[GM’s Cruise abandons Origin robotaxi, takes $583 million charge | TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2024/07/23/gms-cruise-abandons-origin-robotaxi-takes-583-million-charge/)**
>
> GM’s self-driving car subsidiary Cruise is scrapping plans to build the Origin  — a purpose-built robotaxi with no steering wheel or pedals — and

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\
**Post date:** [July 23, 2024, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2044 "2024-07-23T15:31:27Z")

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Elmo said on X that the initial release of 12.5 will be on Model Ys with HW4.

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**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\
**Post date:** [July 23, 2024, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2045 "2024-07-23T17:29:51Z")

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Apparently they plan to use the next generation Chevrolet Bolt instead:

**2026 Chevy Bolt Will Be ‘Most Affordable’ EV On The Market, GM Says**

[https://insideevs.com/news/721430/next-gen-chevy-bolt-cheap/](https://insideevs.com/news/721430/next-gen-chevy-bolt-cheap/)

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\
**Post date:** [July 23, 2024, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2046 "2024-07-23T17:59:09Z")

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This makes a lot of sense and could definitely be a game changer. That other car wouldn’t have had a steering wheel or pedals. This will be a regular full EV at under $30k with some sort of supervised self driving

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**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\
**Post date:** [July 24, 2024, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2047 "2024-07-24T03:12:44Z")

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> [@hajario](#):
>
> If you don’t yet have 2024.20.9, check your car.

BTW, thanks for the note. Started downloading when I woke up the car. Now have 2024.20.9 installed.

Also found that something has changed with my mesh wifi lately and my garage now gets horrible wifi speeds. Took forever to download the update at 500 kB/s. Bleh.

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