# Self driving cars are still decades away **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [October 10, 2017, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499 "2017-10-10T17:38:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 103
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2024, 2:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2048 "2024-07-24T14:13:45Z")
From the Tesla earnings call last night: -Robotaxi unveiling postponed to 10/10 -Tesla to debut an affordable model in 2025 with a price point of $25k based on the 3/Y no doubt to undercut the new Bolt -FSD to expand to Europe and China by year end with FSD 12.5 or 12.6. I don’t believe any of those dates. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2024, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2049 "2024-07-24T14:42:09Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > -Tesla to debut an affordable model in 2025 with a price point of $25k based on the 3/Y no doubt to undercut the new Bolt Has Musk ever said that number? I know he’s been promising an “affordable” vehicle for a while, but they didn’t mention a price point on the call, and I can’t find anything recent where that number comes up, other than where accompanied by the phrase “said to be”. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2024, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2050 "2024-07-24T14:46:49Z")
I took it from the article below and you’re correct. It’s making an assumption. > **[Tesla Announcements: New Date for Robotaxi, FSD in Europe & China, Giga...](https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/2151/tesla-announcements-new-date-for-robotaxi-fsd-in-europe-china-giga-mexico-on-hold-and-more)** > > A deep dive on Tesla's 2024 Q2 Earnings Call ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2024, 5:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2051 "2024-07-25T05:47:40Z")
FSD 12.5 downloading now. 55 minutes. I’ll do some driving in the morning. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2024, 5:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2052 "2024-07-25T05:50:13Z")
Woo! You have a Model Y with HW4, I presume? Hoping they expand it to M3+HW3 soon… 12.5 has been getting great reviews so far. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2024, 6:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2053 "2024-07-25T06:01:14Z")
Yes. It’s a MYLR that I got in early March. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2024, 12:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2054 "2024-07-25T12:34:29Z")
It only took twenty minutes to download despite estimating an hour. Even though Elmo said it would just be on Ys, according to teslafi, the X, S and 3s are getting it too so long as they are HW4 and have Advanced selected for updates. Coming in later point releases: -HW3 and Cybertruck -Earlier and more natural lane change decisions -No nag with sunglasses -End to end on highway ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2024, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2055 "2024-07-25T18:22:22Z")
First drive was to the pharmacy and back. No freeways. It was very noticeably smoother, not a bit of the old herky jerky when making turns. I’m very impressed. I got a warning (not a strike) to touch the wheel when I was perceived to be looking too long to the side but other than that, I didn’t have to touch the wheel at all on the way there. I have photochromic glasses so I when I got back into the car, it said something like “sunglasses detected - put your hand on the steering wheel”. I’ll be taking a half hour drive in freeway traffic later this evening and back home at night. I expect the highway to not be much different than before. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2024, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2056 "2024-07-26T14:50:29Z")
Drove from Santa Barbara to Ventura with some stop and go traffic and then back in later at night. The whole thing was super smooth. Didn’t touch the steering wheel at all except when I took over when it got to some confusing night construction on the highway. This is a major upgrade. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2024, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2057 "2024-07-27T01:46:53Z")
🎶 …I want my F-S-Deeeee…🎶 \ The reviews have been universally good. Not absolute perfection yet, but a huge jump nevertheless. I don’t know if Musk’s 5-10x intervention reduction is correct, but if it’s as smooth as you and everyone else is saying, it’s at least as meaningful an improvement as he was describing in a subjective sense. And yeah, I see several hundred cars on TeslaFi with 12.5 now across the S3XY lines. But all HW4. There’s a lot of handwringing about HW3 but I’m not too worried. Still, the extra wait is frustrating… ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2024, 12:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2058 "2024-07-27T12:31:17Z")
Your wait might not be that long. Elmo said that there would be more point releases in quick succession. FSD 12.5.1 on 2024.20.15 just dropped release notes. It’s just improvements to the street stack. FSD 12.5.3 is supposedly the wide release which presumably includes HW3. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2024, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2059 "2024-07-29T17:19:38Z")
Yesterday I drove up a winding mountain road (Santa Barbara to Ojai). It was very smooth but a little slow. I kept having to goose the accelerator. And…just now I got the option to install 12.5.1 before even anyone on teslafi. I will do it after my doctor’s appointment in about an hour. Elmo X’ed that 12.5.x which will be for the HW3 folks is at least ten days away. ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2024, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2060 "2024-07-29T19:11:44Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > Elmo X’ed that 12.5.x which will be for the HW3 folks is at least ten days away. That’s not too bad, because 10 days means probably within the next two months, while “next year” means “maybe never.” ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2024, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2061 "2024-07-29T19:14:00Z")
And he said _at least_ ten days which could be anything and not even be a lie unless it was sooner. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2024, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2062 "2024-07-29T20:08:09Z")
He just said “about 10 days”: > Slightly less than the usual “two weeks” 🙂 . I’m thinking late August, in any case. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2024, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2063 "2024-07-29T22:08:34Z")
but then again … there’s that: Last year, [Musk went as far as claiming that FSD will get better on HW3 first](https://electrek.co/2023/08/28/elon-musk-reassures-tesla-hw3-owners-bums-out-hw4-owners/) as Tesla’s “focus needs to be on getting FSD on HW3 working super well and provided internationally”. **He went as fas as claiming that FSD performance on “HW4 will lag at least 6 months behind HW3” because of this**. (bolding mine) source: [Elon Musk signals reaching limit of Tesla's HW3 despite self-driving promise | Electrek](https://electrek.co/2024/07/26/elon-musk-signals-reaching-limit-of-teslas-hw3-despite-self-driving-promise/) Elon 2024 might not agree with Elon 2023 … let’s see what Elon 2025 brings … ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2024, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2064 "2024-07-29T22:46:24Z")
I think that’s largely been true for the past year. HW3 was the focus and HW4 was running in emulation mode. I’m not sure if the performance on HW4 was noticeably worse, but it wasn’t better. Now they’re reaching the limits of HW3 performance and have to put some work into optimization. They did drop the ball on international support, though. That’s still upcoming. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2024, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2065 "2024-07-30T00:41:12Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > I think that’s largely been true for the past year. HW3 was the focus and HW4 was running in emulation mode. Correct in my limited (since early March) experience. Is this because HW3 has USS and HW4 is pure vision? For example, I didn’t have parallel parking for the first month or so. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2024, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2066 "2024-07-30T00:48:48Z")
Not sure, but I think it’s just because HW4 is a superset of HW3. The chip is faster and the cameras are better, so if it’s trained to be good enough with HW3, then it should be good enough for HW4. It’s just that now HW3 isn’t fast enough without extra effort, whereas HW4 is. Hopefully, the extra optimization effort is a one-time thing. The new model has 5x the weights as the old one, which hopefully gives them enough headroom for a while. I do hope though that they have reason to believe that HW3 is good enough. Optimization isn’t some automatic thing. Fortunately, AI inference is a fairly easy to understand process, so they should be able to make a good estimate of the “speed of light” (at least where I work, that’s what we call the performance level where the hardware has perfect utilization–impossible to achieve but always the goal). ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2067 "2024-08-07T14:29:50Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > He just said “about 10 days”: > > [x.com](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1817964337061093594) > > Slightly less than the usual “two weeks” 🙂 . I’m thinking late August, in any case. And ten days is today. There have been two micro releases FSD 12.5.1.1 (2024.21.5) which I have FSD 12.5.1.2 (2024.26.5) which should roll out soon and is the UI merge for Summer. This isn’t thought to include HW3. FSD 12.5.2 should include you and the trucks. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499.md?page=102) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499.md?page=104)