# Self driving cars are still decades away **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [October 10, 2017, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499 "2017-10-10T17:38:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 104
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2024, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2068 "2024-08-14T16:45:37Z")
TL;DR: Still decades. Today is a bit of a landmark day for self driving, but only in my head. When I bought my Model 3 six years ago with enhanced autopilot, and a short time later upgraded to full self driving, my fantasy was that when my kid started middle school, 2 miles away, that I would be able to put them in the car, send it to school, and have it come back home, all on its own. At the time Musk was promising that kind of thing within a few years (from originally promising it to be ready at the beginning of 2018), so 6 years should be plenty of time, right? If you review my posts in this thread you’ll see I always agreed with the title “decades away,” but I held out a bit of hope, more just a fantasy, that Tesla would somehow make it happen. Today was the first day of 6th grade, and I had to drive the old manual way. Not that I expected the promise of FSD to be kept, but today was my internal deadline of when it would have genuinely been useful to have the fully realized self driving. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2024, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2069 "2024-08-21T03:42:15Z")
The about 10 days (24 days ago) may be here. There appears to be 2024.26.15 out there but there are no release notes yet. Speculation is that this will have FSD for HW3 (now called AP 3). Eventually the link below will update with notes > **[2024.26.15 Official Tesla Release Notes - Software Updates](https://www.notateslaapp.com/software-updates/version/2024.26.15/release-notes)** > > Tesla software update 2024.26.15 was released on August 21, 2024. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2024, 6:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2070 "2024-08-21T06:06:47Z")
Yay! Looks like it’s employee-only for now. But presuming it’s actually the same 12.5.x net that AP4 cars are running, hopefully that’s a rapid process. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2024, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2071 "2024-08-21T18:54:16Z")
> **[Exclusive: Tesla Adds HW3 Support to FSD v12.5.1.4 \[Confirmed\]](https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/2172/exclusive-tesla-adds-hw3-support-to-fsd-v12514-confirmed)** > > Tesla has finally added support for HW3 vehicles with FSD v12.5.1.4 FSD for HW3 confirmed ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2024, 1:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2072 "2024-08-22T01:04:49Z")
I guess AP3 doesn’t get a 5x larger model after all: > Hopefully Ashok is right that it gets similar performance, and that they can eventually support the same model on both. Redditors are doing their usual sky-is-falling thing, but it’s really too early to tell if we’ve hit a true fork or not. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2024, 10:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2073 "2024-08-22T10:11:41Z")
At the risk of a minor digression, how about a quick primer in tesla terminology for those of us who don’t have one. I’ve seen HW3 & HW4, AI3, AI4, and now AP3. All as names of something. Plausible to guess that HW refers to a hardware version that’s not upgradable; your fix is to buy a newer Tesla. But is that a correct guess? etc. Just a few sentences would help. TY! ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2024, 10:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2074 "2024-08-22T10:27:00Z")
HWx is the hardware version as you speculated. HW4 is the most recent one which started being shipped in early to mid 2023. Teslas don’t really have model years. They just start shipping the new thing when they do. A 2023 Model Y could be either HW version and HW is not upgradable. Like an iPhone, SW upgrades happen periodically and are done over the air. Some are major UI upgrades that happens quarterly. Some come with a new version of FSD and are only applicable to those who subscribe to it. Also like with an iPhone, eventually the hardware is too old to get all of the upgrades. The last HW3s aren’t very old so it would be shitty if they can’t get all of the latest goodies. At some point the nomenclature changed from HWx to APx. HW4 is the same thing as AP4. Not sure about AI. ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2024, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2075 "2024-08-22T17:30:42Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > HW refers to a hardware version that’s not upgradable > [@hajario](#): > > HW is not upgradable Just to be pedantic, because, checks board name, yeah, we’re good. Upgrades from HW2 to HW3 were common, and included as part of the price when a HW2 car bought full self driving. Upgrades from HW3 to HW4 are not currently possible because HW4 uses a different camera setup than HW3, the computer board is a different form factor, and using different cabling (mostly due to the different camera layout). Just to be confusing, there is also a HW2.5, which I don’t remember what that means, and, of course, HW1, which is only going to be old Model S (X?). And all of that is different, but related to, the infotainment computer, which runs the display screens. Older Model S and X can upgrade their infotainment computer, and that is tied to autopilot computer in some way, in that the cost of upgrading the infotainment computer is different depending on what generation of autopilot (HW) computer is installed. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2024, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2076 "2024-08-22T17:59:05Z")
> [@echoreply](#): > > Just to be pedantic, because, checks board name, yeah, we’re good. Upgrades from HW2 to HW3 were common, and included as part of the price when a HW2 car bought full self driving. Upgrades from HW3 to HW4 are not currently possible because HW4 uses a different camera setup than HW3, the computer board is a different form factor, and using different cabling (mostly due to the different camera layout). Yep. Also, I think, besides the different cameras, HW3 has the Ultrasonic Sensors (USS) which HW4 doesn’t have. HW4 is all TeslaVision. For a while there, HW4 had the earlier version of FSD and didn’t have the self parallel parking. Now HW4 gets the new stuff first. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2024, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2077 "2024-08-22T19:39:23Z")
Wikipedia has a pretty good [breakdown of the differences](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Autopilot_hardware): [![Imgur](https://i.imgur.com/RE9WZTK.png "imgur.com") ](https://imgur.com/RE9WZTK) But in short, HW2/2.5 were NVIDIA chips, while HW3/4 are custom Tesla silicon. My Model 3 (2018) had HW2.5 originally, but I got a free upgrade to HW3. It’s possible, though somewhat doubtful, that Tesla might eventually offer another upgrade. Probably not to HW4, but maybe they’ll design HW5 in a way that offers more compatibility and a more compelling performance difference. My understanding is that while HW4 is an upgrade overall, it actually regresses in some ways. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2024, 6:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2078 "2024-08-23T06:05:04Z")
so what is the cheapest year/model used Tesla you could get with FSD? ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2024, 8:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2079 "2024-08-23T08:09:11Z")
You can get used Model 3s with FSD for \<$30k. That’s from [Tesla’s site](https://www.tesla.com/inventory/used/m3?AUTOPILOT=AUTOPILOT_FULL_SELF_DRIVING&arrangeby=plh), where you can filter by FSD. Unfortunately, other site like Edmunds and Carfax don’t seem to allow filtering by FSD specifically. Makes them kinda tricky to find. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2024, 12:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2080 "2024-08-23T12:33:53Z")
FSD is a software add on. All Teslas have the capability. You can subscribe for $99/month or it’s $8000 for the life of the car. Some people only subscribe for a single month here or there when they’re taking a big road trip. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2024, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2081 "2024-08-23T13:06:12Z")
As of this morning it’s going out to regular HW3 people. Interestingly, FSD of any kind in still not available on cybertrucks. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2024, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2082 "2024-08-23T20:31:06Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > Interestingly, FSD of any kind in still not available on cybertrucks. > ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2024, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2083 "2024-08-27T23:58:52Z")
IT’S HAPPENING! [![Imgur](https://i.imgur.com/INiJP1o.png "imgur.com") ](https://imgur.com/INiJP1o) Will report back on HW3+12.5 performance. Reports I’ve seen so far is that it’s nearly as good as HW4, but not _quite_ at the same level. They’re still working on the parameter count bump. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2024, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2084 "2024-08-28T01:39:34Z")
Looking forward to your report. I’m on a major road trip. Santa Barbara to Denver and back with some live music in between. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2024, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2085 "2024-08-28T01:45:09Z")
Awful news: I got upgraded to 2024.26.7, which is still v12.3.6. Lame. I can only hope that it’s a prelude to a further update. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2024, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2086 "2024-08-28T03:36:14Z")
I’m sorry to hear that. You want 2024.26.20 ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2024, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2087 "2024-08-28T20:31:41Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Awful news: I got upgraded to 2024.26.7, which is still v12.3.6. Lame. I can only hope that it’s a prelude to a further update You went through the same roller coaster of emotions that I did last night. It looks like 2024.26.20 is still rolling out slowly, but hasn’t stopped. I’m hoping that means there haven’t been any show stoppers, and they’re just being prudent with a phased release. I hate waiting, but I’d probably hate it more if Tesla did a Crowdstrike. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499.md?page=103) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499.md?page=105)