# Self driving cars are still decades away **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [October 10, 2017, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499 "2017-10-10T17:38:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 107
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2024, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2128 "2024-09-27T17:28:26Z")
I did my first drive with the newly updated Tesla FSD for hardware level 3. I’m upset that it still isn’t using end-to-end (which seems to be what they call their neural network based AI) for freeways, as that is 70% of commute by distance. Good things: It slowed down properly for some sharp dips in the road (imagine an inverse speed bump, that does double duty of slowing traffic and guiding water). Version 11 FSD ignored it, version 12 slowed about 25% of the time, and the latest 12.5.4 is at 1 for 1 slowing down. What makes me optimistic about it, is that it also slowed for a similar (but less deep) drainage dip in my work parking lot. Bad things: - It didn’t know how to handle the light controlled freeway entrance. I had to intervene to stop. - It approached a cross walk much too fast, causing a pedestrian to hesitate to cross. I also intervened to allow them to cross. There was no chance of hitting the person, it just improperly took the right of way. - Poor planning at either slowing or accelerating to make a necessary double lane change. This is pretty advanced behavior. It did manage, but not in the smooth way a good human driver would. So two interventions in 15 miles is a bit more than what this testing group found, an average of 1 intervention every 13 miles. > **[Tesla Full Self Driving - AMCI Testing](https://amcitesting.com/tesla-fsd/)** > > AMCI TESTINGReal-World Evaluation: Tesla Full Self Driving 12.5.1 and 12.5.3 FSD Evaluation overviewMore than 1,000 miles drivenCity streets, two-lane highways, mountain roads, and freewaysDay and night operation; backlit to full-frontal sun2024... > [@LSLGuy](#): > > good to know I have a new risk to be alert for It is a big change in behavior. In dumb cruise control you can cover the brake. In smart cruise control you have to cover the accelerator. That is certainly sub-optimal if something happens where you do need to emergency brake. > [@Pardel-Lux](#): > > I would like a control that allows me to set the level of “frenziness” or “aggressivity” Tesla used to have 5 or 6 levels of following distance, but now they just have chill, average, and aggressive, or something. That setting adjusts both the following distance and the likelihood to change to a faster lane to maintain speed. I preferred two settings, so I could adjust the following distance when the road was wet, for example. In the Tesla the following distance is a ratio based on speed, so it doesn’t always stay 3 car lengths back, or whatever. More like 3 seconds back, or something. So in slow speed it gets closer, just as human drivers do. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2024, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2129 "2024-09-27T19:38:34Z")
> [@echoreply](#): > > It is a big change in behavior. In dumb cruise control you can cover the brake. In smart cruise control you have to cover the accelerator. That is certainly sub-optimal if something happens where you do need to emergency brake. I’m a two-footed driver, so no issue with feet or reaction time. Often my reaction to a developing traffic conflict when driving manually is to accelerate, not brake. So the idea of responding to abnormal [whatever] with lotsa throttle isn’t foreign either. I just need to get used to being wary for random braking. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2024, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2130 "2024-09-27T20:03:31Z")
> [@Pardel-Lux](#): > > Remember: if it breaks for no reason, _ **accelerate** _! You must override the bug. which is “doubly crappy” … b/c if the car auto-slams the brakes, my first thought is: “_what danger did I NOT see, that the system did_” (e.g. is there a kid behind a car that I don’t see, but the x-ray vision of a EV does?) - which is the complete opposite train-of-thought of meshing the accelerator to cancel the braking… (and plough happily through a Kindergarden group) case in point: you cant really be SURE that it is phantom braking (and not justified emergency braking) the moment the problem presents itself, right? so that would really be an **extremely inconvenience/bother/dark cloud** (for my mental structure as driver), to have that come up every now and then. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2024, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2131 "2024-09-27T20:10:38Z")
It doesn’t slam the breaks the few times that I experienced it on older versions of FSD. It slows down moderately like if a light turns yellow. ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2024, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2132 "2024-09-27T21:27:05Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > I’m a two-footed driver, so no issue with feet or reaction time. As long as you’re not confused about what vehicle you’re in and try to brake with both feet, or press the gas to turn right. > [@Al128](#): > > you cant really be SURE that it is phantom braking (and not justified emergency braking) the moment the problem presents itself, right? As @hajario says, phantom braking is not a full panic stop. At worst it’s reasonably strong, probably dangerous if you’re being tailgated or the car behind you is playing on their phone, but no worse than if the light changed or you crested a hill and saw slower traffic ahead. Of course all of the different systems are going to be somewhat different, and I would not put it past something very broken to come to a full stop for an overpass shadow, or whatever. Anyway, yes, it does require vigilance to make sure it isn’t actually braking for a reason. A moderate slow down is appropriate when someone is cutting you off. When overriding the automatic braking, you better be sure you’re right. Accelerating into a car suddenly ahead of you _should_ trigger the collision warning system, and possibly automatic emergency braking, but again, pay attention! ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2024, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2133 "2024-09-28T03:06:13Z")
The new FSD is able to see through my sun glasses, because I was able to drive home and out later with no hands. I’m not sure I like it. Car drove fine, but it is unsettling to not be ready to intervene instantly. It actually did really well, with the same interventions I described earlier repeated in the same conditions. I did have two yellow lights where it behaved exactly the same each time. The light turned yellow, the car braked hard, then decided it was too late to stop, so accelerated through the yellow. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2024, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2134 "2024-09-28T23:47:08Z")
I love the hands free and that I can use it now with sunglasses. The actual FSD hasn’t changed much since the last version. I still take over when I see some of the never ending construction on the 101. It got confused on one right turn onto the free way in that it never made the right turn on the red light. I had to take over. A couple of nights ago it made me take over in a very foggy stretch. I will never use the Smart Summon. I did use the Dumb Summon to back the car out of the garage just to try it. It’s kind of eerie. I’d only use it on the rare occasion that I’m parked close enough to someone where getting into the car would be difficult. ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2024, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2135 "2024-10-02T20:45:15Z")
A shareholder lawsuit against Elon Musk and Tesla over self driving was dismissed. The suit claimed Musk made promises which were not upheld. Based on arguments from Musk’s defense team, the court dismissed the suit because his promises were “nonactionable puffery” which no “reasonable investor” should have believed. Musk has certainly been the most visible person claiming self driving is a year away (for at least the last 10 years). Even his lawyers tell you don’t believe anything he says (if for some reason you were unreasonable and did). Decades away, anything else is puffery. So yeah, completely automated drives across the country by the end of 2017 was just a bit of exaggeration for effect. The fact that this morning FSD made it about two miles before I had to turn it off for picking the wrong lane was just a one time glitch that happens every morning. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2024, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2136 "2024-10-02T21:00:46Z")
You can read the judgment here: > **[tesla-shareholder-suit-dismissed.pdf](https://regmedia.co.uk/2024/10/02/tesla-shareholder-suit-dismissed.pdf)** > > 401.83 KB It’s a shareholder lawsuit alleging fraud, which requires a pretty high standard of evidence, which wasn’t met. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2024, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2137 "2024-10-08T16:59:03Z")
There is a new update that has launched that is intriguing. v2024.32.30 with FSD 12.5.6. It’s available on all models including the truck. This version has end-to-end on highway and “earlier and more natural lane change decisions”. One thing I hate is that I feel that it takes too long to move over to the right when it needs to exit the highway. I have had it miss a couple of exits and have to take the next one. Maybe this fixes this. I’d also love it to only use the leftmost lane when passing. Interestingly, this marks the end of announced improvements. Just a “few” months late. > **[2024.32.30 (FSD 12.5.6) Official Tesla Release Notes - Software Updates](https://www.notateslaapp.com/software-updates/version/2024.32.30/release-notes)** > > Tesla software update 2024.32.30 (FSD 12.5.6) includes FSD (Supervised) v12.5.6, Full Self-Driving (Supervised), ASS (Actually Smart Summon), Vision-Based Attention Monitoring, Vision Autopark, LiveOne Powered by Slacker Radio, Exclude Home When... ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2024, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2138 "2024-10-11T03:05:25Z")
Tesla is doing their self-driving livestream: [https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1YqJDkbjazvGV](https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1YqJDkbjazvGV) Showing off a “Cybercab,” which looks pretty cybery but not as extreme as the Cybertruck. \<$30k, no wheel or pedals. Still a ways away, though (2026-27). ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2024, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2139 "2024-10-11T03:24:26Z")
“Before 2027”. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2024, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2140 "2024-10-11T03:27:56Z")
Let’s round up to 2030 🙂 . It’s good to see progress on everything, but it’s all still pretty far away. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2024, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2141 "2024-10-11T03:28:48Z")
He said the robots would be serving drinks, but instead the audience seems to be helping themselves to the pre-filled drinks. That said, the robot is doing a lot of weird arm motions, so that’s something. If you’re the kind of person who gets high, or who used to get high, there’s this thing a friend can do where they wave their arms towards your face in wavy motions…it’s that exactly. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2024, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2142 "2024-10-11T03:29:42Z")
Well, they’re passing out little goodie bags at least. Hey, at least they haven’t started murdering the attendees! ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2024, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2143 "2024-10-11T03:30:38Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Hey, at least they haven’t started murdering the attendees! “80% chance the ‘bad’ AI future won’t happen”, said the maker of robots. I like the look of that Cybercab, first Tesla that’s appealed to me. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2024, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2144 "2024-10-11T03:31:27Z")
The hand-arm articulation _is_ impressive. And they seem to be pretty good with balance, etc. Gonna be some time before they’re actually useful, though. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2024, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2145 "2024-10-11T03:31:59Z")
Of all things, I think the dancing was pretty impressive. Very fluid. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2024, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2146 "2024-10-11T03:41:59Z")
Livestream seems to have ended. But we should soon get some first-hand reports from the attendees. The event was both more and less than I expected. The Cybercab is pretty cool and I wasn’t expecting 20 of them. I expect it’s further along than the Cybertruck was at its announcement, though it’s still pretty far off. Optimus looks to have made some mechanical improvements, though I still want to watch one unload a dishwasher or vacuum an irregular room with an ordinary upright vacuum. Wasn’t expecting the van/bus at all, but that looks pretty prototypey to me. I’ll definitely buy an Optimus if it’s under $25k and can do most basic household tasks. ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2024, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2147 "2024-10-11T03:51:35Z")
Yeah, supposed to be here already. I’ll be surprised if it’s here by 2035 if that clown is the one promising it. 20 Cybercabs that don’t actually cybercab isn’t worth much. Might as well be 20 folks in robot costumes. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499.md?page=106) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499.md?page=108)