# Self driving cars are still decades away **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [October 10, 2017, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499 "2017-10-10T17:38:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![Balthisar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/balthisar/32/2825_2.png) [@Balthisar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Balthisar)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 12:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/221 "2018-06-12T12:48:23Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > The software is the big problem, not the sensors. It’s not capable of analyzing all the factors in real time properly. Another issue is keeping the sensor clean, I passed a construction site the other day, actually still in the destruction stage, and got a coating of dust all over my car. In the winter, my self-steering tends to fail in ice and slush, and the adaptive speed control tends to want to go into non-adaptive mode. The result is on bad days, my nearly self-driving car won’t nearly self-drive. The good thing is, I’ve got a steering wheel and set of pedals to do it myself when necessary. If the front windscreen is fogged, the automatic wipers won’t stop, and if the rear camera is dirty I tend to run over children when parking. (Actually, I shouldn’t joke about that.) I still physically look and use my mirrors, though. There’s still a lot of simple, practical stuff to overcome for full autonomy. ---
**Author:** ![Jasmine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jasmine/32/2964_2.png) [@Jasmine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jasmine)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 12:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/222 "2018-06-12T12:55:29Z")
> [@steronz](#): > > That’s what I think, at least, but clearly I’m a naysayer. Convince me I’m wrong 🙂 I can’t because I think you’re right. Good driving is an extremely complex task. It involves a lot more than just staying in your lane and going the speed limit. What frightens me is the ramifications of any kind of failure. Things happen so quickly when something goes sideways. Even if there is a human driver in the car as a backup, he’ll probably be half asleep or reading a book. Can he go from that state to a state of instant, correct response in the blink of an eye? I doubt it. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 1:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/223 "2018-06-12T13:45:02Z")
I didn’t know she had a phone in her hand. Been a few months since the video came out. It’s almost impossible for any passenger to stay actively engaged in a car. You can’t help but zone out if you aren’t driving. I don’t know of a way to prevent that. > [@Richard\_Pearse](#): > > No she wasn’t. > > She was staring down at her phone! Of course she couldn’t react quickly enough. > > Effective monitoring of an automated system like this requires your brain to be engaged in the activity exactly as much as it would be if you were controlling the car yourself. The problem is that because you’re _not_ controlling it yourself there is normally no immediate effect from allowing yourself to become disengaged, and so it is easy to drift off into your own world and you stop being an effective back up. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2018, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/224 "2018-08-12T02:32:41Z")
It’s been a couple of months, so bumping this up due to an article - the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety took a look at the lane guidance systems of five vehicles to see how they handled lane continuity, especially on curves. Not so great, it seems. > **[IIHS: Self-driving systems aren't that, and aren't ready for prime time](https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1118163_iihs-self-driving-systems-arent-that-arent-ready-for-prime-time)** > > Self-driving systems aren't ready for prime time, says a new report by IIHS. The Institute tested five cars: two Teslas, a BMW, a Mercedes-Benz, and a Volvo, all with systems that earned top marks in its tests of advanced driver safety aids. In new... > [@](#): > > Joe Young, an IIHS spokesman who works at the facility’s test center and has driven these cars on nearby roads says, “I had a hard time with these systems. I did not feel at all comfortable with how these systems were driving going over crests and around curves, especially with oncoming traffic on a right curve,” he told Green Car Reports in an interview. > [@](#): > > All the cars showed a tendency at low speeds to follow a leading car out of the lane if the lead car changed lanes or turned off, the report notes. This latter problem is likely what led that Tesla into the highway divider. They also tested collision avoidance systems; I won’t post the long quotes, but the second page of the article is definitely worth a read. ---
**Author:** ![NetTrekker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nettrekker/32/2909_2.png) [@NetTrekker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NetTrekker)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2018, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/225 "2018-08-12T19:47:39Z")
I am shocked that these cars are programmed to be guided by the car ahead rather than the lane markings. I am not an engineer but it sounds like something a bad human driver would do, not an engineered software algorithm. ---
**Author:** ![Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e19adc/32.png) [@Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2018, 2:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/226 "2018-08-13T14:38:42Z")
Where I live (Montreal), following the car ahead of you is probably the best way to stay in the lane given the lack of lane paint — or incorrect lane paint due to construction. But you’d want to be looking several cars ahead to ensure you don’t ram a car due to sudden braking. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2018, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/227 "2018-08-14T00:50:52Z")
> [@NetTrekker](#): > > I am shocked that these cars are programmed to be guided by the car ahead rather than the lane markings. I am not an engineer but it sounds like something a bad human driver would do, not an engineered software algorithm. I assume it gives some sort of preference to first - its ongoing estimate of the path ahead, second - lane markings, and then third - the behavior of the vehicle in front of it. I do know the Tesla reads lane markers, because during one update earlier this year, a friend with a T3 found himself bouncing a bit back and forth between the left and right markers. A week later, and the update corrected that. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2018, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/228 "2018-12-03T17:41:52Z")
> [@](#): > > The chair of the Los Altos Planning Commission, Alexander Samek, was arrested in Palo Alto early Friday morning after officers discovered him asleep at the wheel of his Tesla Model S while driving at 70 miles per hour on U.S. Highway 101. > **[Los Altos planning commission chair arrested for Tesla DUI](https://www.paloaltoonline.com/news/2018/11/30/los-altos-planning-commissioner-arrested-for-tesla-dui/)** > > The chair of the Los Altos Planning Commission, Alexander Samek, was arrested in Palo Alto early Friday morning after police discovered him asleep at the wheel of his Tesla Model S while driving at 70 miles per hour on U.S. Highway 101. lol. Upbeat version: it kept him from crashing! ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2018, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/229 "2018-12-05T19:34:01Z")
> [@](#): > > Today is a day that fans of self-driving cars have been anticipating for years. Waymo—widely seen as the industry leader—is finally launching its “Waymo One” commercial taxi service in the Phoenix metropolitan area. > > The announcement fulfills Waymo’s long-standing promise to offer a commercial service by the end of the year. But the launch comes with important caveats. > > Initially, the new service will only be offered to Waymo’s early riders—the same handpicked test passengers that have been riding in Waymo’s vehicles for the last 18 months. Waymo says it hopes to make the service available to the broader public “over time.” > > And despite the fact that Waymo began testing fully driverless vehicles more than a year ago, Waymo has chosen to put safety drivers behind the wheel of its cars for the commercial rollout. > **[Waymo One, the groundbreaking self-driving taxi service, explained](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/12/waymo-one-the-groundbreaking-self-driving-taxi-service-explained/)** > > Waymo finally begins commercial operations—albeit with safety drivers. So perhaps in a few months there will be completely self-driving cars with no safety drivers. ---
**Author:** ![Gatopescado](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gatopescado/32/5711_2.png) [@Gatopescado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gatopescado)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2018, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/230 "2018-12-05T22:25:26Z")
> [@NetTrekker](#): > > I am shocked that these cars are programmed to be guided by the car ahead rather than the lane markings. I am not an engineer but it sounds like something a bad human driver would do, not an engineered software algorithm. _“So, Billy, if all your friends drove off the bridge, would you too?”_ ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2018, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/231 "2018-12-06T00:32:11Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > [Waymo One, the groundbreaking self-driving taxi service, explained | Ars Technica](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/12/waymo-one-the-groundbreaking-self-driving-taxi-service-explained/) > > So perhaps in a few months there will be completely self-driving cars with no safety drivers. Not for a long while. This announcement didn’t change anything. > **[Waymo's So-Called Robo-Taxi Launch Reveals a Brutal Truth](https://www.wired.com/story/waymo-self-driving-taxi-service-launch-chandler-arizona/)** > > The outfit that started as Google's self-driving car team still relies on human safety operators—indicating just how hard this problem really is. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2018, 7:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/232 "2018-12-06T07:24:41Z")
> [@Maserschmidt](#): > > Not for a long while. This announcement didn’t change anything. Yeah, it’s going to take a long, long time. The Waymo cars can drive on certain specific routes, and stop alongside a few specific curbs, like bus stops. [But they can’t handle going into a a parking lot.](https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2018/12/test-ride-waymos-self-driving-car/577378/) ---
**Author:** ![Hermitian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hermitian/32/470_2.png) [@Hermitian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hermitian)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2018, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/233 "2018-12-06T15:30:37Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > [But they can’t handle going into a a parking lot.](https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2018/12/test-ride-waymos-self-driving-car/577378/) Not surprising. I hate driving in parking lots and I’m mostly human! People just walk around without looking at all. Drivers cut drive across parking lines going full speed. They back up out of parking spots blindly. ---
**Author:** ![YamatoTwinkie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/cc9497/32.png) [@YamatoTwinkie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YamatoTwinkie)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2018, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/234 "2018-12-06T16:25:10Z")
> [@NetTrekker](#): > > I am shocked that these cars are programmed to be guided by the car ahead rather than the lane markings. I am not an engineer but it sounds like something a bad human driver would do, not an engineered software algorithm. The algorithm likely prioritizes the car ahead because: its easy to track via radar (Hey! large signature in front of me moving 60mph- while it could be a flying soda can, I’m pretty sure its a car!) it has to anyway because its the most likely thing on the road its going to run into. it allows the algorithm to cheat a little in the absence of other reliable information (spotty/absent lane lines, road cresting, poor weather, etc), and just play follow-the-leader. This isn’t necessarily only something a bad human driver would do- if you’re behind a semi (blocking your view of the road ahead) and cresting a hill, for all you know the road could have completely collapsed 30 feet beyond- you’re just trusting the semi in front of you to brake if it is. This prioritization struggles when approaching a lane split with a gore point, and the car ahead suddenly changes lanes. The AI has to rapidly figure out: whether or not its just a widening road (not actually a lane split), and if its ok to tack middle which lane is the correct one for the route selected whether or not the car ahead is moving in the correct lane whether or not that radar signature for a stationary object ahead is just a discarded soda can (Full speed ahead) or something that requires IMMEDIATE EMERGENCY BRAKING NOW. ---
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2018, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/235 "2018-12-07T00:11:30Z")
> [@NetTrekker](#): > > I am shocked that these cars are programmed to be guided by the car ahead rather than the lane markings. I am not an engineer but it sounds like something a bad human driver would do, not an engineered software algorithm. This strikes me as one of those “the map is not the territory” things. It’s all well and good to know where the lines on the road are, but ultimately you have to drive the same way that the cars around you drive. This is really obvious in countries that have a different driving culture, but it also handles all sorts of cases where the lane markers aren’t the full information. One such example would be: imagine you’re on a freeway, and you see the car 8 cars ahead of you make a quick swerve to the right, then a correction. Then you see the car right behind it do a quick swerve and correction. Then the next… The obvious conclusion is that there’s something on the road and you’re going to take the same path as all those other cars when you get there. Add up all the cases like that, or where local custom does something different than the road markings, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the neural network has figured out that “follow the car in front of me” is more important than “follow the lines on the road”. Another reason this might be a solid plan is that, assuming that the car is following far enough to stop before hitting the car in front of it, then following the car in front has a _very_ high chance of being safe. You know there aren’t any obstructions in that path, because another car just drove safely through it. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2018, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/236 "2018-12-07T00:19:24Z")
And if the drunken driver in front of you goes off the road into the ditch–you follow him there. ---
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2018, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/237 "2018-12-07T00:48:27Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > And if the drunken driver in front of you goes off the road into the ditch–you follow him there. Well, obviously it’s not the _only_ thing to pay attention to. But good drivers, both human and computer, pay attention to what the driver ahead of them is doing. Presumably, when the driver of you does something unexpected and you decide to follow him instead of the lane markers, you should also slow down so that if he runs into a ditch, you have space to stop before following him. I remembered why I originally came into this thread: Waymo announced a paid self-driving service starting soon (limited customers and areas to start). So, it appears that practical commercial use of self-driving cars is going to come a lot sooner than decades. ---
**Author:** ![TSBG](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/77aa72/32.png) [@TSBG](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TSBG)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2018, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/238 "2018-12-07T01:38:45Z")
The Waymos in Phoenix basically seems like a shuttle bus service, with tiny shuttle busses. So the question becomes why not scale up the size of shuttle to an actual bus? And I think part of the answer is this–at least in LA and New York, busses will pull out aggressively into traffic, because they have to get going, and they know that if they don’t no one will let them in because everyone hates being stuck behind a bus. An AI, you would think/hope, would be programmed to be extremely crash-avoidant. Human drivers, knowing the AI won’t merge aggressively, would blithely stream by, pinning the bus to the curb and slowing the route way down. ---
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2018, 4:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/239 "2018-12-07T04:53:56Z")
That might be part of the reason. Another reason might be that buses are the size that they are because driver labor is expensive. It’s more economical to move lots of people around with a single driver in a large vehicle. When that economic constraint is lifted, is the most efficient size of buses smaller? ---
**Author:** ![control-z](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/eada6e/32.png) [@control-z](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/control-z)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2018, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/240 "2018-12-07T18:22:11Z")
To me a lot of time and money is being wasted on trying to make vehicles self-driving. Any self-driving model that requires constant driver attention or people standing by at remote locations to take over is inefficient and a waste of time IMO. The only thing that’s going to make self driving vehicles work is inventing an actual thinking AI and giving it sensors as good as or better than human senses, or making the roads smart and confining the self-driving vehicles to those roads. The roads need to give feedback to self-driving vehicles such as lane constraints, speed limits, traffic control indications, etc. The actual thinking AI is going to come with other problems, like how much free will can develop, and what are the moral ramifications The smart roads are going to be expensive and require maintenance. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499.md?page=13)