# Self driving cars are still decades away **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [October 10, 2017, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499 "2017-10-10T17:38:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 136
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2025, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2708 "2025-06-27T02:50:24Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > if we don’t have to touch controls for hours at a time we are going to be transferring almost all our attention to a movie, a book, the internet or whatever–definitely not to what is happening on the road As has been hashed out in this thread several times, far too much of the driving population is transferring almost all of their attention to a movie, a book, the internet, or whatever while they are the ones controlling the car. People are already so bored driving they’re engaging in other activities. Obviously it is nobody on this website, but there is not a single day I don’t see other drivers staring into their laps. The other thing with self driving, as it is now in Teslas, it removes tedium. Creeping along in stop and go traffic? Let the car handle it. Cruising for endless miles? Let the car handle it. I can (mostly) relax and listen to music or a podcast. None of that takes away from having fun. Curvy mountain road? Now it’s my turn to drive. > [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > are today just a constant barrage of anti-technology slop. Remember back in the 2000s when Apple was receiving so much of the brunt of the tech hate? Apple was incredibly successful, and releasing genuinely innovative products, so a certain type of person felt the need to demonstrate themselves as being extra edgy and independent by hating on Apple for often ridiculous reasons. The point is this anti-technology “technophile” has been around for a long time, but I totally get your point that it seems to suffuse so much more tech reporting now. I’m not even talking about the Ed Zitron types who love technology, the internet, and social media, but hate what the tech companies are doing to it all. Him, and the other, better tech reporters are sad that so much is shit. The problems is the ones who seem gleeful that it is shit. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2025, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2709 "2025-06-27T03:01:11Z")
> [@echoreply](#): > > The point is this anti-technology “technophile” has been around for a long time Definitely. The company I work for (which you’ve heard of, but in the early 2000s was a _much_ smaller company) had one of those people all to ourselves. Basically made a whole career from railing on us. We weren’t beyond criticism either, then or now, but this guy seemed genuinely mentally ill. Still don’t know if it was real or just the result of playing to a crowd. These guys have always been around, but it seems like their schtick is utterly pervasive now. The Ed Zitrons and Cory Doctorows are fine; they can at least write well, and form a coherent argument, even if it seems a bit unidirectional. But they’re more of an exception today. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2025, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2710 "2025-06-27T22:04:11Z")
Neat: > > So while the current Robotaxi trial still has human monitors, they have in fact had a completely unoccupied car drive around by their June deadline. On highways too, no less. The video should be fun. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2025, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2711 "2025-06-27T23:21:10Z")
Note it says “from factory to a customer home across town”–so it was a fairly short drive. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2025, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2712 "2025-06-27T23:27:20Z")
No surprise there. And they haven’t made any claims that this is anything but a one-off demo, at least for the time being. It’ll be a while before all cars in a 200-mile radius are self-delivering. Still, this is a good start. I wonder if the fact that it doesn’t contain passengers made it easier to get permission to drive without a safety monitor. Still a potential risk to other drivers, but not to its own occupants. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2025, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2713 "2025-06-27T23:33:45Z")
My guess is that it was a fairly short drive just a little more complicated than the Summon function in a parking lot. As much of an FSD fan boy that I am, I don’t trust that function at all. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2025, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2714 "2025-06-27T23:36:58Z")
We’ll have to wait for the video to see for sure, but the claim is that it did highway miles and that the top speed was 72 mph. Tesla has been (self) driving cars from their factory to their storage lot for months now. Even that was a step beyond Summon. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2025, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2715 "2025-06-27T23:48:19Z")
Interesting. I wonder if they had a different car run that specific route a bunch of times first. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2025, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2716 "2025-06-27T23:51:33Z")
Could be. Or they just already had the data that it was an easy route. It’s possible they had a safety car following as well, like some of the pre-launch Robotaxi testing. They claim there’s no one in the car and no interventions, but that doesn’t mean they weren’t _very_ careful with the monitoring. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2025, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2717 "2025-06-28T00:16:25Z")
They definitely followed the guy there… if only to get a photo op and provide a little meet-and-greet with the FSD team: > The guy says it was purely random and he’s not affiliated with Tesla: > I’m sure someone will figure out the address based on the pics and determine the route. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2025, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2718 "2025-06-28T00:34:00Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > I’m sure someone will figure out the address based on the pics and determine the route. And here we go: > > > Jose @Jagarzaf 15 miles and 26 minutes is a it more than a fancy Summon. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2025, 5:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2719 "2025-06-28T05:07:21Z")
Cool: > No way to wriggle out of this being a true camera-only L4 system now. Driving around on a wide variety of roads, from surface streets to highways, with unprotected left turns, traffic circles, and other complex behavior. Looks pretty wild just cruising down the highway with no one inside. ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2025, 6:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2720 "2025-06-28T06:36:37Z")
Yay, 15 miles that were almost assuredly trained for as much as possible. I’m sure that’ll knock the inauspicious launch of the RoboTaxi out of the headlines. When’s it going to be able to deliver itself from L.A. to Times Square? That was originally promised at the end of 2016. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2025, 7:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2721 "2025-06-28T07:10:23Z")
Self-driving goalposts. ---
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2025, 7:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2722 "2025-06-28T07:26:27Z")
You do know that Elon is the person who placed those goalposts, correct? No need to move those as he still hasn’t reached them. Did you miss my post filled with his claims for past years that still haven’t come true? ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2025, 7:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2723 "2025-06-28T07:35:35Z")
I’m talking about statements made in this thread. I’ve harped on the OP enough. But **scabpicker** said similar things: > [@scabpicker](#): > > So yeah, maybe a vigilant, smart AI that’s the equivalent of a 5 year old (understands the rules and could follow them) will get us to a point where we can get in the back of a car and play banjo while it takes us somewhere. I don’t see that being likely before 2040. Given that we actually have an example where you could climb in the back and play banjo while the car drives you somewhere, it seems that was about 15 years too pessimistic. Ultimately though, I’m 100x more interested in what Tesla is actually achieving today (and others, too) than in who-said-what-when. Digging up bad predictions can be fun but ultimately meaningless. Though it must be said that the bet on no-LIDAR turned out to be the right one. ---
**Author:** ![MacDoc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/macdoc/32/18696_2.png) [@MacDoc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MacDoc)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2025, 12:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2724 "2025-06-28T12:51:45Z")
Despite justified skepticism …the guys that own Teslas on the mcycle forum I am on use autonomous driving on a regular basis. 🎇 They know they are guinea pigs and I suspect most do…and don’t care or mind. 🤔 ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2025, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2725 "2025-06-28T16:22:37Z")
Again, let me know when it actually drives itself in an environment they haven’t specifically trained it for. Or you know, can handle some rain. Of course then I’ll ask about snow. Because a self-driving car should be able to handle all of those, or it’s pretty useless. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2025, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2726 "2025-06-28T16:25:19Z")
And sun glare. That’s an obvious case where cameras have so far proven insufficient against lidar. Really, the camera-only bet might pay off. But stating that it is proven at this point is a bit premature. ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2025, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/2727 "2025-06-28T17:01:51Z")
> [@scabpicker](#): > > can handle some rain. > [@TroutMan](#): > > And sun glare The vision system does remarkably well on rainy, wet roads with the sun creating glare. There are times when I am having difficulty seeing the lines on the road due to the glare, but the car is seeing them perfectly fine. This is typical, and seems to be a condition the cameras handle very well. The car warns that “self driving may be degraded,” so I can see why they would not want to do driverless operations under heavy enough precipitation. In my experience though, FSD works the same when it’s “degraded” as it does at any other time. If visibility drops low enough FSD will disengage, but in my experience that is under severe enough conditions that humans shouldn’t be driving, either. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499.md?page=135) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499.md?page=137)