# Self driving cars are still decades away **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [October 10, 2017, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499 "2017-10-10T17:38:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 152
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2026, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/3028 "2026-08-10T21:37:30Z")
The regular track has made huge strides in this over the last year. Btw, 14.1 LITE (and 14.3.7) has started to ship to the regulars. Initial reports are favorable. ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2026, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/3029 "2026-08-25T17:17:01Z")
I’ve got 14.1 lite, and it seems about the same as 14 lite. School dropoffs are better than the worst case scenario of ignoring school zones completely, but still not anywhere near good enough to be worth using FSD in the mornings. I have to keep the car in “sloth” mode to reliably obey the school zone speed limit. In the best cases it does recognize the flashing school zone sign and adjust the speed limit until the end of the school zone, where it resumes the normal speed. Sometimes it doesn’t see the flashing sign. Sometimes it doesn’t resume normal speed even though it recognizes the speed limit has gone up. FSD takes me to the wrong drop off point at the school, so I have to break self driving to go to the correct spot. If I resume self driving after stopping, the car doesn’t know it’s still in a school zone and tries to go the regular speed. And wow, are school zones ever triggering to some drivers. I like to play the game of “how red can the face of the guy behind me get” during the 300 feet I’m going 20MPH on a usually 35MPH road. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2026, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/3030 "2026-08-25T17:55:34Z")
Check this out. Some nerd supposedly self upgraded his HW3 car to HW4 > **[Tesla Owner Successfully Upgrades HW3 Model 3 to HW4 - Not a Tesla App](https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/4599/tesla-owner-successfully-upgrades-hw3-model-3-to-hw4)** > > Tired of waiting for official hardware retrofits for older vehicles, one well-known developer in the Tesla community has taken matters into his own hands v15 is supposedly coming out at the end of this year or early next year. There is no way there will be a v15 LITE so you may get a real upgrade in a year or so if you purchased the lifetime subscription. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2026, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/3031 "2026-08-27T01:56:32Z")
I rode in a Zoox today. I’m on vacation in Vegas. It was about the same price as an Uber. It only picks up and drops off at certain locations on or near the Strip. You press a button on the app to open the door when it shows up. Inside you can adjust the temperature or pick a music channel or stream your own music from your phone. It took kind of an indirect route to my destination that cut through the neighborhoods west of the Strip and got me to where I was going about five minutes later than it originally estimated. Other than trying to let me out right in front of a metal barricade, it did its job well and followed the rules of the road. For an urban environment like Vegas that’s dry and flat and laid out on a grid and largely has designated pickup/dropoff spots for taxis it seems ideal, but I’m sure there’s a lot more work to be done before it could operate in a Midwest winter. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2026, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/3032 "2026-08-27T02:24:40Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > I rode in a Zoox today. I’m on vacation in Vegas. It was about the same price as an Uber. It only picks up and drops off at certain locations on or near the Strip. I didn’t realize they were running there (see post 56, 2017). > [@Maserschmidt](#): > > If you have to restrict the environment, we’re back to L4. That’s not a bad thing - I believe that a place like Las Vegas is ideal for L4 vehicles, either doing circuits on the Strip or running back and forth to a dedicated stop at McCarran. But even that’s a while off. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2026, 6:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/3033 "2026-08-27T06:23:26Z")
> [@Maserschmidt](#): > > I didn’t realize they were running there (see post 56, 2017). Well, it HAS been nine years. According to Wikipedia they just started taking fares from the public about two weeks ago, and the pickup/drop-off stations are limited. From south to north, they serve; - Mandalay Bay - Luxor - Excalibur - MGM Grand - Top golf - Aria - Bellagio - Fashion Show Mall - Resorts World - Fontainebleau (Yes, I’m surprised as you are that they finally finished building that place after 20+ years) Plus Area 15 off the Strip. ---
**Author:** ![leahcim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/b4bc9f/32.png) [@leahcim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/leahcim)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/3034 "2026-09-02T16:31:00Z")
FWIW, Waymo is rolling out in Denver starting yesterday: [Waymo to launch driverless rides in Denver on Tuesday](https://coloradosun.com/2026/09/01/waymo-rides-begin-denver-sept-1/) It’s not one of the usual “consistently decent weather” cities you usually see on the list. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/3035 "2026-09-02T17:10:10Z")
This will be a great test in a few months. I wonder if they will ground them in heavy snowfall. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/3036 "2026-09-02T17:12:11Z")
Who here has a Tesla w FSD and lives in snow country? How did the version you had last winter handle the situation? Or does it just refuse to FSD in what it decides is snow? ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/3037 "2026-09-02T17:22:19Z")
As you may recall, I live in an area with the mildest weather on the planet. I have had it work in a very heavy few minute downpour. What defeats it is if very bright sunlight shines directly into the front camera. The car screeches at me and the screen flashes red. It will recover if the condition is only a couple seconds long. If not, I have to intervene. The other situation where it won’t work is complete darkness but that is very infrequent. There would have to be no moonlight or nearby streetlights or other lighting of any kind. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/3038 "2026-09-02T17:30:15Z")
Yeah. I knew you in SBA weren’t going to be the poster child for Tesla Snowman. But some other Telsa folks here do live where it snows. On my much-less-than-FSD BMW, in very heavy rain the auto-follow (“smart cruise control”) system often shuts down claiming the forward facing radar / lidar / camera can’t detect shit. The message doesn’t distinguish which sensor is flummoxed, but at least one of them is. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/3039 "2026-09-02T17:36:50Z")
Tesla will say something like Front Camera or Right Side Pillar. It situations like a side camera is sun blinded, of covered in dirt or it’s very dark but not totally dark it will say something like “performance may be degraded”. ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/3040 "2026-09-02T21:03:16Z")
> [@leahcim](#): > > FWIW, Waymo is rolling out in Denver starting yesterday: [Waymo to launch driverless rides in Denver on Tuesday](https://coloradosun.com/2026/09/01/waymo-rides-begin-denver-sept-1/) > > It’s not one of the usual “consistently decent weather” cities you usually see on the list. Wow, bold move, Cotton. They had a pretty well publicized issue with puddles in Austin back in May. I’ve seen several of them driving in downtown Dallas over the last year. They mostly seem to drive well, if a bit slow. I did see one that stopped in the left hand lane for a turn when a turn lane was available to its left. That’s been my only personal issue with one of them so far. I’ve never seen one out and about during rain, though. ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/3041 "2026-09-02T23:18:06Z")
> [@leahcim](#): > > It’s not one of the usual “consistently decent weather” cities you usually see on the list. It’s also not nearly as bad as many places. Last year it barely snowed, but assuming some return to normal amounts of snowfall, it will probably mean Waymo might not operate for a total of a few days during the year. The roads are often completely clear of snow within a few daylight hours after a regular snowfall. Even when it stays cold, a sunny day and dry air sublimates the snow. It’s not the slushy frozen mess people remember from the upper midwest and northeast of their youth. > [@LSLGuy](#): > > Who here has a Tesla w FSD and lives in snow country? How did the version you had last winter handle the situation? There was enough snow to stick to roads something like _twice_ last winter (maybe I’m forgetting a May storm?), so FSD didn’t care one bit. I don’t think the snow ever lasted past 10am. Previous experience is that as long as it can see the lines on the roads it manages. The vision system does an excellent job handling glare off wet or snowy roads. Once the lane markings are completely obscured the vision system can’t do too much, and the older systems would confuse stripes of snow with lane markings when there were patches of snow with black tire ruts through them. I’ve not been brave enough to let FSD drive in extremely low traction conditions. Tesla’s traction control is good, but no traction control is going to save you when hitting a sheet of frozen runoff on a bend on the freeway. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2026, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/3042 "2026-09-03T02:59:41Z")
I have a friend in Chicago who used Tesla’s self-driving capability all the time, so i asked him. > Better than I am in snow at least since winter ‘24-25; sometimes gives up and hands it back to me in heavy wintry mix that is still drivable, because the 8 cameras are pointlike whereas I can peer around and between. Still running HW3 with 15% of HW4 Mem throughput; also cybercabs have water jets on most of the cameras. > > Never gives up for IL rain, but pulled over 2x in one day in Miami last year in 3”/hr, both times exactly when everyone else stopped (and I would have too). No experience with heavy fog but morning fog on freeway (10s? visibility at 25 m/s) is fine. With cameras, what you see is what you get; no lidar back scatter weirdness from precipitation. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2026, 12:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/3043 "2026-09-03T12:40:01Z")
That’s very encouraging for any system with cameras as primary sensor. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2026, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/3044 "2026-09-03T15:23:48Z")
I refer to him as a “Tesla fanboy”, but I’m sure his report is approximately accurate. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2026, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/3045 "2026-09-04T01:17:15Z")
In somewhat related news > **[Tracking the fatal Tesla Autopilot and FSD crashes hidden in its data](https://electrek.co/2026/09/01/tesla-autopilot-fsd-crashes-hidden-data/)** > > Tesla redacts nearly every crash it reports to NHTSA. We're matching those hidden reports to real fatal crashes — a running Electrek investigation. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2026, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/3046 "2026-09-07T22:13:24Z")
> **[A Tesla ran a stop sign and killed a man, record confirms Full...](https://electrek.co/2026/09/07/tesla-driver-assist-stop-sign-buena-vista/)** > > A Tesla Model 3 ran a stop sign in Buena Vista, NJ and killed 82-year-old Stephen Field. Tesla's own data confirms its driver-assist was engaged. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2026, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/3047 "2026-09-07T22:57:59Z")
A investigative journalist looked at redacted data and inferred that the car was probably using FSD despite there also being evidence that would suggest otherwise. It’s certainly possible although that’s not the sort of mistake FSD would typically make. The headline and the body of the article contradict one another. Maybe it rolled through a stop sign but the collision avoidance is very good. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499.md?page=151) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499.md?page=153)