# Self driving cars are still decades away **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [October 10, 2017, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499 "2017-10-10T17:38:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 16
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2019, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/301 "2019-04-17T00:17:34Z")
Ford CEO: “This was harder than we thought. But we’ll have _something_ by 2021.” [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-09/ford-ceo-tamps-down-expectations-for-first-autonomous-vehicles](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-09/ford-ceo-tamps-down-expectations-for-first-autonomous-vehicles) ---
**Author:** ![steronz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steronz/32/11765_2.png) [@steronz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steronz)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2019, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/302 "2019-04-17T00:24:03Z")
Well that’s a heck of a point there, Jim. > [@](#): > > “ **We overestimated the arrival of autonomous vehicles** ,” Jim Hackett said Tuesday at a Detroit Economic Club event. While Ford’s first self-driving car is still coming in 2021, “its applications will be narrow, what we call geo-fenced, because the problem is so complex.” So something by 2021, but not a self driving car. ---
**Author:** ![Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e19adc/32.png) [@Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2019, 12:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/303 "2019-04-18T12:44:55Z")
FYI here is the latest ‘hack’ of a Tesla on autopilot: [some paint on the road and the car veers into oncoming traffic.](https://keenlab.tencent.com/en/whitepapers/Experimental_Security_Research_of_Tesla_Autopilot.pdf) Tesla says it’s not a big deal because the human is supposed to be paying attention. ---
**Author:** ![KellyCriterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/b3f665/32.png) [@KellyCriterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KellyCriterion)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2019, 12:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/304 "2019-04-25T12:48:13Z")
Musk is clearly unphased by the skepticism coming from some SDMB quarters. In the last few days… 1. Tesla release a [2 minute “full self driving” video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=tlThdr3O5Qo), clocks 2.5m+ views in three days. 2. Musk [again publicly comments](https://newatlas.com/tesla-autonomy-day-elon-musk-quotes/59413/) on how close a fully autonomous car is: > [@](#): > > "There are three steps to self driving. There’s being feature complete, then there’s being feature complete to the level where we think the person in the car doesn’t need to pay attention, and then there’s a reliability level where we can also convince regulators that this is true. **We expect to be feature complete in self driving this year. We expect to be confident enough from our standpoint to say that we think people don’t need to touch the wheel or look out the window somewhere probably around second quarter of next year**. And we expect to get regulatory approval, at least in some jurisdictions, toward the end of next year. > > “That’s roughly the timeline I expect things to go on. Probably for trucks, platooning will be approved by regulators before anything else. If you’re driving a long-haul you could have one driver up front, and have four semis behind in a platooning manner, and I think the regulators will probably be quicker to approve that than other things.” > > Looking at a history of Tesla’s achievements to date, he added: "All these things, we said we’d do them, and we did it. We’re gonna do the RoboTaxi thing too. The only criticism, and I think it’s a fair one, is that I’m not always on time. But I get it done, and the Tesla team gets it done. We expect to have the first RoboTaxis operating next year, with no-one in them. > > "When things are on an exponential curve of improvement, it’s very difficult to wrap our minds around it because we’re used to working on a linear base. But when you’ve got massive amounts of hardware on the road, the cumulative data is increasing exponentially. The software is getting better at an exponential rate. **I feel very confident in predicting autonomous RoboTaxis from Tesla next year**. Musk talks about this stuff like it’s tantalisingly close. I’m rooting for him. Go Elon, go! ---
**Author:** ![Tired\_and\_Cranky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a87d85/32.png) [@Tired\_and\_Cranky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tired_and_Cranky)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2019, 1:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/305 "2019-04-25T13:20:21Z")
> [@KellyCriterion](#): > > Musk talks about this stuff like it’s tantalisingly close. I’m rooting for him. Go Elon, go! I’m rooting for him too but I’m also skeptical. Musk is an unreliable source of information about what Tesla will accomplish. He’s even been sued by the SEC for his misstatements. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2019, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/306 "2019-04-25T15:25:52Z")
> [@KellyCriterion](#): > > Musk is clearly unphased by the skepticism coming from some SDMB quarters. > > … > > Musk talks about this stuff like it’s tantalisingly close. I’m rooting for him. Go Elon, go! I’m still waiting for that coast-to-coast autonomous drive he said was going to happen in 2016. I have little doubt that Tesla will get there someday, but Musk is generally happy to adopt Trump-like predictions based primarily on his hopes and dreams. ---
**Author:** ![KellyCriterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/b3f665/32.png) [@KellyCriterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KellyCriterion)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2019, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/307 "2019-05-13T13:59:30Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > I’m still waiting for that coast-to-coast autonomous drive he said was going to happen in 2016. I have little doubt that Tesla will get there someday, but Musk is generally happy to adopt Trump-like predictions based primarily on his hopes and dreams. “We could have gamed an LA/NY Autopilot journey last year, but when we do it this year, everyone with Tesla Full Self-Driving will be able to do it too” [Elon Musk, May 2019](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1126611407984779264?s=20) (Datestamping some of these quotes so we can check back in later ;)). ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2019, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/308 "2019-05-30T18:37:29Z")
[Waymo bringing self-driving trucks to Phoenix area freeways](https://apnews.com/260eb186f8d74eefbfa8ff70bdba7533): > [@](#): > > Google’s self-driving vehicle division says it’s bringing autonomous trucks to the Phoenix area. > > Waymo announced Wednesday that its self-driving tractor-trailers will start driving on freeways this week and will expand to more routes over time. > > Waymo’s self-driving passenger vehicles are ubiquitous in the eastern Phoenix and its suburbs, where the company conducts extensive testing and runs a taxi service. > > The company says the big trucks use the same sensors as passenger vehicles but they’re configured differently. The testing will start with two drivers in each truck. > > Companies including Uber and TuSimple have driven self-driving trucks on Arizona roads. Waymo says it tested trucks in Arizona in 2017. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2019, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/309 "2019-05-31T13:56:43Z")
> [@](#): > > Google’s self-driving vehicle division says it’s bringing autonomous trucks to the Phoenix area. > > Waymo announced that its self-driving tractor-trailers will start driving on freeways this week… > \*\* with TWO drivers in each truck.\*\* So, in other words there are absolutely no self-driving trucks on the road. (In fact,the trucks are so NON-self-driving that they require twice as many humans. ) The title of this thread remains true: Self driving cars are still decades away. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2019, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/310 "2019-05-31T14:57:06Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > So, in other words there are absolutely no self-driving trucks on the road. > (In fact,the trucks are so NON-self-driving that they require twice as many humans. ) > > The title of this thread remains true: Self driving cars are still decades away. The guy who ran Google’s self-driving car program agrees with you. (as do I) > **[Aurora CEO Chris Urmson discusses the future of self-driving cars](https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/23/18512618/how-long-will-it-take-to-phase-in-driverless-cars)** > > Aurora CEO Chris Urmson and the future of self-driving cars on The Vergecast. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Pearse](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/richard_pearse/32/13144_2.png) [@Richard\_Pearse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Pearse)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2019, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/311 "2019-06-01T01:24:54Z")
> [@Maserschmidt](#): > > The guy who ran Google’s self-driving car program agrees with you. (as do I) > > [Aurora CEO Chris Urmson and the future of self-driving cars | The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/23/18512618/how-long-will-it-take-to-phase-in-driverless-cars) He thinks decades for privately owned self driving vehicles but “within 5 years” for fleet vehicles, e.g, taxis / Uber types. Which means he thinks the technology is good for the shorter timeframe but other factors will delay the pickup by the general public. ---
**Author:** ![KellyCriterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/b3f665/32.png) [@KellyCriterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KellyCriterion)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2019, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/312 "2019-06-12T03:21:39Z")
"Sometime next year… the car will be autonomous without supervision. Sometime thereafter… convince regulators… the car can go around with no one in it." [Elon Musk, June 2019](https://youtu.be/Va5i42D13cI?t=2143). ---
**Author:** ![Tired\_and\_Cranky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a87d85/32.png) [@Tired\_and\_Cranky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tired_and_Cranky)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2019, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/313 "2019-06-12T15:23:03Z")
GM and Cruise Automation’s SDC test fleet isn’t doing so hot. It has close calls every 450 miles while taking 80% longer than a person-driven car to complete trips. The software also behaves unpredictably and stops working frequently. The biggest highlight for SDC fans is that the fleet’s collisions seem to be taking place while people are driving the cars. Of course, if the software worked well, people wouldn’t be driving them very often. > **[GM's Cruise Self-Driving Prototypes Are Riddled With Technical Glitches,...](https://jalopnik.com/gms-cruise-self-driving-prototypes-are-riddled-with-tec-1835414849)** > > Last time we checked in on General Motors’ Cruise autonomous-vehicle arm, it was worth a surprising $19 billion, because the dream of a self-driving world is one people are willing to dump loads of cash into, growing skepticism or not. That... ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2019, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/314 "2019-06-12T16:12:57Z")
> [@Richard\_Pearse](#): > > He thinks decades for privately owned self driving vehicles but “within 5 years” for fleet vehicles, e.g, taxis / Uber types. Which means he thinks the technology is good for the shorter timeframe but other factors will delay the pickup by the general public. And obviously the incentive is much greater for fleet vehicles. For private owners, it’s merely a convenience. For fleet operators, it replaces the cost of employees. (Or “contractors” as some operators call them.) A self-driving car that operates 24/7 is worth the cost of 4.2 full-time employees (24x7 = 168 = 40x4.2). ---
**Author:** ![steronz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steronz/32/11765_2.png) [@steronz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steronz)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2019, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/315 "2019-07-10T17:02:40Z")
**“Close to 10%” of Autopilot software team reportedly departs after shakeup** Some choice quotes in this [latest bit of gossip]([July | 2019 | Ars Technica](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/07/close-to-10-of-autopilot-) software-team-reportedly-quits-after-shakeup/). > [@](#): > > Musk told subordinates that “he was unhappy with the progress in developing fully automated driving capabilities. **He is also upset that some team members have told him they can’t meet the timelines he has set for developing the technology** ,” according to sources who talked to Efrati. > [@](#): > > Musk has long been optimistic about Tesla’s Autopilot progress. In 2015, Musk declared that building a fully autonomous vehicle was “a much easier problem than people think it is.” He predicted that Tesla would solve it in about two years. > > But other companies have found the transition from “feature complete” to full autonomy to be quite difficult. Waymo, for example, has had cars capable of driving on a wide range of road types since about 2015. Yet four years later, the company still has safety drivers behind the wheel for most trips. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2019, 12:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/316 "2019-07-13T12:39:29Z")
There is definitely some panic happening on both the AV and EV fronts. Here’s a good summary article of recent events and comments from leaders (note: the VW/Ford alliance he mentions did just get announced, they’re swapping and consolidating AV and EV technology work). As for Elon Musk, I would love to see an accounting of all the capital he’s burned through in his career, and how much profit or loss has resulted from it [https://www.fastcompany.com/90374083/for-years-automakers-wildly-overpromised-on-self-driving-cars-and-electric-vehicles-what-now](https://www.fastcompany.com/90374083/for-years-automakers-wildly-overpromised-on-self-driving-cars-and-electric-vehicles-what-now) ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2019, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/317 "2019-07-13T13:46:19Z")
[This article](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/12/business/ford-vw-self-driving-electric-cars.html) was in The New York Times yesterday, about the Ford/Volkswagen joint venture. It includes a quote from a German university professor, “Autonomous driving is a very, very expensive technology. One has to invest today in order to make the first sales in 2030, maybe. Therefore it makes a lot of sense for Ford and VW to work together.” ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2019, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/318 "2019-07-17T13:53:25Z")
An article from today’s NY Times: “Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’” > [@](#): > > A year ago, Detroit and Silicon Valley had visions of putting thousands of self-driving taxis on the road in 2019, ushering in an age of driverless cars. > > Most of those cars have yet to arrive — and it is likely to be years before they do. Several carmakers and technology companies have concluded that making autonomous vehicles is going to be harder, slower and costlier than they thought. > > “We overestimated the arrival of autonomous vehicles,” Ford’s chief executive, Jim Hackett, said at the Detroit Economic Club in April. > **[Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’ (Published 2019)](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/17/business/self-driving-autonomous-cars.html?action=click&module=News&pgtype=Homepage)** > > Ford and other companies say the industry overestimated the arrival of autonomous vehicles, which still struggle to anticipate what other drivers and pedestrians will do. ---
**Author:** ![NetTrekker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nettrekker/32/2909_2.png) [@NetTrekker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NetTrekker)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2019, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/319 "2019-07-18T01:38:44Z")
Remote driving will probably happen much sooner - “[The War to Remotely Control Self-Driving Cars Heats Up | WIRED](https://www.wired.com/story/designated-driver-teleoperations-self-driving-cars)” > **[The War to Remotely Control Self-Driving Cars Heats Up](https://www.wired.com/story/designated-driver-teleoperations-self-driving-cars/)** > > Designated Driver is just the latest competitor to enter the market for the teleoperation tech that will make robo-cars work. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2019, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/320 "2019-07-19T14:20:55Z")
> [@NetTrekker](#): > > Remote driving will probably happen much sooner - > > “[The War to Remotely Control Self-Driving Cars Heats Up | WIRED](https://www.wired.com/story/designated-driver-teleoperations-self-driving-cars)” > > [The War to Remotely Control Self-Driving Cars Heats Up | WIRED](https://www.wired.com/story/designated-driver-teleoperations-self-driving-cars/) [grunts thoughtfully] [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499.md?page=15) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499.md?page=17)